AZERBAIJAN’S STANCE PUTS ARMENIA UNDER PRESSURE
By Ilham Guliyev & Lala Alizada Azernews Staff Writers
AzerNews Weekly, Azerbaijan
March 9 2006
Azerbaijan and Armenia have exchanged threats after the unsuccessful
round of peace talks, with Azeri officials warning that the country
may resort to military action to settle the more than a decade-long
dispute if the negotiating process continues to yield no fruit.
President Ilham Aliyev has said that Armenia’s non-constructive
position in the ongoing talks on settling Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh
conflict prompts Azerbaijan to reconsider its policy. “Azerbaijan is
interested in solving the problem through diplomacy and negotiations.
But the talks carried out so far have produced no results, therefore,
we have to be ready for other options,” Aliyev said during his visit
to the frontline districts in lowland Garabagh last week.
The parties failed to agree upon the issues of principle during the
negotiations held by Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Robert Kocharian in
the French town of Rambouillet in February, despite high expectations
for a breakthrough in the peace process. The president emphasized
that Armenia’s position shatters the already forlorn hope for
a solution. Certain progress is being achieved, but Yerevan’s
stance ultimately prevents the sides from reaching peace. “Although
opportunities emerged for reaching a peace accord within the Prague
process [the talks mediated by OSCE], the latest talks show that
Armenia is not interested in this. In such case, Azerbaijan should
revisit its policy. We support settling the conflict by diplomatic
means. But we will never come to terms with the separation of
Upper Garabagh from Azerbaijan, and this is my resolute stance. The
conflict must be settled strictly within the country’s territorial
integrity.” Aliyev said that the fact that peace talks with Armenia
have lasted for 12 years is the biggest concession on the part of
Azerbaijan. “Armenia has been pursuing a policy of genocide against
Azerbaijan, which is a crime against humanity. We are the victim side,
and this gives us the right to solve the problem by any means.”
Azerbaijan’s terse stance has apparently frightened Armenia. Its
president Robert Kocharian said that if the Azeri government resolutely
states that time is on its side and threatens with military action, his
country may de-jure recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed
Upper Garabagh republic. “If the peace talks are suspended by either
of the conflicting sides, this will lead to the developments unfolding
according to an undesirable scenario.”
Kocharian said, however, that Armenia is prepared for any eventuality
and disclosed the steps his country would take in case opportunities
for talks are exhausted. The Armenian leader said further that the
next step after the “recognition of Upper Garabagh” would be to
ensure the security of Armenian residents there, to be followed by
the implementation of comprehensive military reinforcement activities
in the seven districts around Garabagh. Kocharian also called on
the Armenian residents of Upper Garabagh not to be concerned over
the ongoing peace talks with Azerbaijan. “You should not worry. If
you see that the Armenian president is backing out of the talks,
then there will be grounds for concerns, as this would mean that he
does not believe in the success of the negotiations or is unable to
complete the process.” Kocharian said that despite the unsuccessful
outcome of the Rambouillet talks, confidence remains for reaching a
general accord. He again put forward the demand to get the Garabagh
Armenians involved in the negotiating process. The stern messages
coming from the conflicting sides have raised concerns of the
international community. US ambassador Reno Harnish said that if no
progress is reached in settling the conflict, several options are
possible, including war. He noted, however, that military action
could prove disastrous for the South Caucasus region. “I have said
on many occasions what tragedies could ensue. You should remember
the deplorable living conditions of the internally displaced persons.
Therefore, we call on the politicians of both countries to find a way
out of the current situation.” Harnish said Kocharian’s statement that
Armenia could recognize Upper Garabagh can heighten tensions between
the parties. “We suggest that the presidents be more flexible in the
negotiations. We think the parties can reach agreement and must try
to do so. The foreign ministers of the two countries must also strive
to reach a negotiated solution,” the US diplomat said.
Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian, in his remarks at a
meeting of the OSCE Permanent Council, expressed his concern at the
tough rhetoric of the Azeri side. He alleged that such statements
undermined the achievements already made in the negotiations.
Oskanian said Azerbaijan’s statement that it was waiting for a more
opportune time to resolve the conflict and the calls being voiced for
the resumption of hostilities ran counter to the principles of the
‘Prague process’ of talks, which envisions a stage-by-stage conflict
settlement. He said those principles were quite real and served as a
platform for progress in the talks. In the current situation, great
responsibility rests with the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group
brokering the conflict resolution. At a meeting of the mediators
due in Washington March 7-8, acceptable ways of continuing peace
talks should be found. The co-chairs should express decisiveness and
urge the parties to the conflict to reach agreement. Meanwhile, the
international community must comprehend that Azerbaijan’s compromises
have limits and it is time for Armenia to take constructive steps
toward reaching peace. However, if the mediators’ attempt proves
futile, this may lead to a failure of the entire Prague process
of talks, which is nearly the only progress in the negotiations
observed in recent years. In this case, Azerbaijan will have to
seek new alternatives and it is likely that the limit of options
will be exhausted, as the conflicting sides have already discussed
all possible alternatives – from exchange of territories to the
stage-by-stage conflict settlement. This could be possibly followed
by the recognition of Upper Garabagh as a party to the conflict or
Armenia’s complete withdrawal from the negotiating process.
Azerbaijan will never accept this, as its territories have been
occupied not by the so-called Upper Garabagh republic but by Armenia.
The talks between Baku and Khankandi could be possible only if Armenia
pulls its military forces out of the conflict zone, suspends economic
assistance to the separatist regime and shuts its borders with Upper
Garabagh. Is war the only option left? Azerbaijan is currently under
intense pressure from the international community, which could lose
the strategic South Caucasus region over just a few years if the
hostilities are resumed. Armenia is risking to face Azerbaijan’s
military machine, which is much stronger than it used to be in
early 1990s. It will be challenging for this country, which has a
considerably weaker economy, to withstand the armament race and the
ensuing offensive. Azerbaijan, in turn, is risking to be deprived of
the West’s support and faces a temporary suspension of major regional
projects in the event of military action. Upper Garabagh, which is
internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, has both Azerbaijani
and ethnic Armenian population. It was occupied by Armenia in the early
1990s, along with seven other Azerbaijani districts, after large-scale
hostilities that killed up to 30,000 people and forced over a million
Azeris out of their homes. The ceasefire accord was signed in 1994, but
peace talks have been fruitless so far and refugees remain stranded.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress