Jerusalem Post
Oct 3 2020
Iran, Egypt and Gulf cautiously watch Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
OCTOBER 3, 2020 16:02
Previous clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2016 and in July of this year did not receive the same level of attention.
The Middle East is closely watching the outcome of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is unusual because previous clashes in 2016 and in July of this year did not receive the same level of attention. The reason that the region is watching is because of Turkey’s deep involvement in pressuring Azerbaijan to push forward and “liberate” territory as protests take place in Iran. Syrian fighters, mostly from the Turkmen minority, have been recruited to fight on the side of Baku.
Turkey’s ruling party, which has close relations with Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, wants the region to see the conflict as both an “Islamic” conflict and one that is important to Turkish speakers. On October 1, Turkey put out a statement claiming “Jerusalem is ours,” which appears to link its foreign policy of threatening Israel to its policy of trying to fan the flames against Armenia. Ankara stands to gain in ways from the conflict that are not shared interests with Baku. For instance, Ankara wants to use it to pressure Russia in Idlib. Russia has been trying to secure the M4 highway and there are rumors of Russia-Turkish discussions behind the scenes, trying to take over the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and link it to Syria where they have partitioned northern Syria.
Iran has a more sympathetic view of Armenia. Iran’s Fars News has sought to make the conflict appear “Islamic” in order to reduce the support for Azerbaijan by Azeri protesters in Iran. There are millions of members of the Azeri minority in Iran and the country’s leadership fears any local ethnic protest because it knows that it will undermine the already tenuous regime. With Azeris in the streets chanting slogans against Armenians and against Russia and Persians, the regime moved to try to channel them in a different direction.
On Saturday, Iran’s Fars News wrote about Armenia downing an Azerbaijan military aircraft. Tehran is clearly watching closely what the outcome may be. It does not want the conflict to continue. Iran's Fars News ran a second article about Iran's view of the conflict arguing that Iran does not want spillover from the war and that it is warning the parties involved to stop.
Meanwhile, media that is sympathetic to Iran and Hezbollah has also written on the conflict. Al-Mayadeen has noted that Turkey is “declining” and thus fanning the flames in the Caucuses. The same media notes there are clashes in the countryside of Aleppo, showing how Syria is linked to the battles in Nagorna-Karabakh. One author notes, “it can be said that the Turkish-Azerbaijani military adventure in Nagorno Karabakh is on the way to an end, and it can also be said that Turkey, or President Erdogan in particular, is on the way to losing another file.” The author argues that Turkey’s leader is pressured in Syria and the Mediterranean.
Meanwhile, countries that tend to oppose Turkey’s aggression, such as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have been less critical of the Azerbaijan offensive. This is because, while they view Ankara’s Muslim Brotherhood ambitions in Gaza and Libya as dangerous, they do not view Baku as a problem.
They would prefer, much as Israel appears to prefer, a good relationship with Azerbaijan and not to let Baku move too close to Turkey. Israel's close relationship with Azerbaijan, ostensibly alongside Turkey, thus upsets some of the usual patterns of the region where Ankara and Jerusalem oppose one another. This is largely because this conflict was seen as outside the Middle East alliance system until the last several weeks. Now that alliance system takes on more importance from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Caucuses as it is all knit together globally.
The general regional alliance system in recent years has cemented itself around several groups. There is the Israel-UAE-Bahrain-Jordan-Egypt-Greece-Cyprus group that is linked to Saudi Arabia’s role as well. There is the Turkey-Qatar-Gaza-Libya group that supports Tripoli’s embattled government. Then there is the Iran-Hezbollah-Houthi-Syria regime-Baghdad group that includes Iran’s allies and proxies across the region. Azerbaijan does not fit into these groupings because it has sought an independent foreign policy and not to get involved in Middle East disputes. However, it appears some countries want to link these battles to the Middle East. In a world where the US hegemonic role of the 1990s is changing rapidly, the role of major states such as Russia, Turkey and Iran are growing and that means they will try to broker deals regarding this Caucuses conflict. That has major implications for the rest of the Middle East.