Rockets, Cluster Munitions And Missiles Rain Down On Armenian And Azerbaijani Civilians

Forbes

Oct 7 2020

Sebastien RoblinContributor

Aerospace & Defense

Fighting remains fierce on the frontlines of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict pitting Azerbaijan against a de facto separatist Armenian republic, a week and a half after the conflict began. Armenian defenders entrenched in the mountains have wreaked havoc in deadly ambushes using artillery and anti-tank weapons. Nonetheless, Azerbaijani forces have captured several towns, backed up by a formidable fleet of Israeli- and Turkish-built drones that have been recorded destroying shocking numbers of Armenian tanks and artillery systems as well as resupply convoys.

But tens of miles beyond no-man’s land, a second war rages—a war targeting the civilian population in their home communities. Both belligerents are using powerful artillery systems designed to devastate large areas to target densely populated urban communities, as well launching ballistic missiles to target infrastructure far away from the fighting.

Most of these weapons are designed to have large areas of effect, and could not plausibly be used surgically against military areas of civilian communities. They are inflicting massive destruction of buildings and infrastructure, and killing at a minimum dozens of civilians.

Indeed, the International Committee of the Red Cross has condemned the “indiscriminate” bombardments, noting: “The use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area against military targets in populated areas may violate international humanitarian law, which prohibits indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks.”

It describes the bombardments as having killed “scores” of civilians, and damaged infrastructure including roads, electricity, gas and communications networks.

Rocket Artillery and Cluster Munitions

Stepanakert is the capital of the de facto breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, also known as Artsakh. The city of roughly 55,000 has been under artillery fire since day one of the conflict on September 27, when Azerbaijan launched a broad offensive directed at at the region.

Under nearly continuous bombardment, it has sustained tremendous damage.

On Monday, Armenia claimed a total of 21 Armenian civilians had died in the fighting.

One of the principal weapons in the bombardments appears to be Russian-built BM30 Smerch (“Tornado”) multiple-rocket launcher systems. A Smerch system consists of an eight-wheel truck mounting twelve tubes for 300-millimeter (12”) diameter rockets. Azerbaijan is believed to possess 30 or 40 BM-30 systems.

The Smerch uses several types of rocket. The 9M528 rocket has a single “unitary” 1,796-pound high explosive warhead. However, there is also a 9M55K cluster munition rocket stuffed with 72 small bomblet submunitions each weighing 3.8 pounds. The 7.6-meter-long rockets can strike targets up to 56 or 43 miles away, respectively.

Cluster munitions are many time more deadly than standard artillery shells against both vehicles and personnel targets. But they are problematic because a significant fraction of the sub-munitions tend not to exploded—and leave warzones littered with unexploded munitions that can kill civilians many years after the fighting has ended.

For that reason, over 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions banning their use, though Armenia and Azerbaijan are not amongst their number. Major military powers, including China, India, Israel, Russia and the United States have also abstained.

A recording of the bombardment of Stepanakert exhibit the characteristic flashes and popping sounds of cluster munitions exploding.

Furthermore, unexploded sub-munition have been recorded on video.

However, the Smerch may not have been the system used to deploy cluster munitions.

Instead, Amnesty International identified Israeli M095 DPICM (Dual-Purpose Improved Cluster Munition) bomblets in a residential area in Stepanakert.

It happens that after fighting in April 2016, a charity reported that in 2016 it had recovered and destroyed over 200 unexploded M095 cluster bomblets in northeastern Nagorno-Karabakh left behind by Israeli LAR-160 rockets fired by Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan possesses around 30 LAR-160 medium-range (28 miles) rocket artillery systems, and fifty EXTRA 306-millimeter rocket systems designed to deliver longer range (93 miles) precision strikes. Both munitions are built by Israeli Military Industries, and are mounted on an IMI Lynx trucks.

Armenian sources claim two other type of systems have been used in long-range strikes on Armenian communities.

One is Belarus’s Polonez system, which mounts eight 300-millimeter artillery rockets with 120-mile range. The other is the Turkish-built T-300 Kasirga, which mounts four 302-millimeter rockets with a range of 62 to 74.5 miles on a 6×6 wheeled vehicle which uses a German diesel engine.

Belarus may have 10 Polonez and 21 T-300s, though the author has not yet seen visual evidence confirming their use.

At 9 a.m. on Sunday, Armenian artillery units began a series of retaliatory bombardments on as many as 10 population centers in Azerbaijan—most notably Ganja, Azerbaijan’s second most populous city with over 330,000 people. Other cities which appear to have been hard hit include Tartar (around 20,000 persons), Barda (41,000), Khizi, Mingachevir (around 105,000) and Yevlakh (59,000).

Though shorter-range Armenian artillery had struck Azerbaijani communities closer to the fighting early in the conflict—reportedly killing a family of five in one incident—these new attacks marked a significant escalation.

Armenia also fields an estimated half-dozen BM-30s, and munitions from the strikes seem to be of that type.

Armenia also earlier purchased four or eight Norinco WM-80 273-millimeter MRL systems from China with a range of 74.5 miles which could also have been used in the attacks.

On Tuesday, Azerbaijan claimed the Armenian bombardment had killed 27 civilians, led to the hospitalization of 141, and destroyed or damaged over 400 houses and civilian facilities.

While Armenia denied making the attacks, NKR leader Arayik Harutyunyan announced the artillery attacks on “permanent military locations in historical Gandzak, Ganja, Kirovaband.” He warned that he was willing to “continue to hit other cities, and if necessary bigger cities.”

Both sides also appear to have employed more powerful ballistic missiles, which arc high into the exosphere before plunging down at immense speeds.

Armenia has reported missile attacks from early in the conflict, but visual evidence has been sparse. However, that changed on October 2 when footage emerged of what appears to be an Israeli-built LORA ballistic missile plunging directly into a key bridge near the Armenian border.

Azerbaijan reportedly purchased up to 50 LORAs mounted on trucks with four-shot launch containers in 2017-2018. The missiles have a thousand-pound warhead, a range of 250 miles and use GPS and TV guidance to achieve accuracy within 10 meters of a designated target, making them suitable for attacking infrastructure targets that require precision.

The Armenian capital of Yerevan may also have come under attack by either missiles or drones (the former should have been distinguishable bey being much faster) on the evening of October 1-2. A Russian-built S-300 air defense missile battery opened fire, ostensibly destroying the aerial contacts. If true, this would represent the long-vaunted system’s combat debut.

Azerbaijan meanwhile claims Armenia has been using its arsenal of Soviet-era Tochka-U (SS-21 Scarab-B) ballistic missiles for long range attacks. The Tochka is only accurate within 90 meters—but it nonetheless has caused hundreds of deaths in recent conflicts.

Video footage below does appear to show an Armenian unit firing a Tochka apparently in combat conditions. Armenia is believed to posses eight Tochka-U launchers, while Azerbaijan has four.

Armenia possesses more precise and longer-range Iskandar ballistic missile purchased from Russsia, but so far is believed not to have employed the weapon. The Iskander could be used to target Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku or the oil industry, but that in turn might lead to a very dangerous counter-escalation and retaliation.

The role that weapons from Turkey and Israel have played in the current conflict has drawn increasing scrutiny abroad. There are unconfirmed claims that Israel may halt arms shipments to Azerbaijan, while Canada has banned the export of drone parts used in Turkish drone used by Azerbaijan.

Reports that Turkey has transported Syrian mercenaries to Azerbaijan to support the latter’s military effort have also been supported by multiple sources.

Meanwhile, on October 6, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyany reportedly stated they would be “open to mutual concessions” with Azerbaijan, a move signaling he may be ready to concede some territory under the right circumstances.

Whether Azerbaijan is receptive of the peace feeler may depend on whether leader Ilham Aliyev is satisfied with his territorial gains or decides to press the offensive in a bid for greater ones.