Regnum, Russia
March 24 2006
`Russia gives Azerbaijan and Armenia `to the mercy’ of the US’: Azeri
press digest
Politics
`Armenia’s withdrawal from the occupied Azeri lands will improve our
relations with that country,’ Azeri President Ilham Aliyev says Mar
15. `We want nothing extraordinary. We just want the Armenians to
leave our lands. After that we will be able to live like neighbors,’
Aliyev says in a Mar 15 meeting with the Turkish delegates to the 2nd
World Azeris Congress. (New Time)
`Armenia will not be able to rival with Azerbaijan,’ Aliyev says at
the 2nd World Azeris Congress in Baku Mar 16. He says that Azerbaijan
is augmenting its military capacity annually and has a $600 mln
military budget this year. `My task is to shortly make our military
budget as big as the whole national budget of Armenia.’ `Armenia will
never be able to rival with us. The sooner they realize that the
better for them.’ Aliyev says that Azerbaijan will have to revise its
participation in the Karabakh peace process if it sees that Armenia
is wrecking the process by non-constructive attitude. `The peace
talks have been ongoing for 12 years already, but with no result. And
nobody knows for how much longer they will go on. We are for peace
talks, but when we see how con-constructive and insincere Armenia is,
we are losing patience. If we see that the peace process is just a
fake, we will come out of it,’ says Aliyev. `Azerbaijan will not
allow the seizure of Nagorno Karabakh in either 10 or 100 years.’
`Unless we agree on the return of displaced persons to their homes,
we will reach no peace agreement at all,’ says Aliyev. (Zerkalo)
Zerkalo daily reports: `Reliable diplomatic sources say that an
unprecedented pressure was put on the Azeri leadership during the
last visit of the US assistant secretary of state for Europe and
Eurasia to Baku. The Washington emissaries tried every means to get
Ilham Aliyev to agree to the OSCE MG-proposed peace. They also urged
Aliyev to agree to take part, if need be, in the US anti-Iranian
coalition, otherwise, the US will use various levers of pressure: the
human rights and democracy situation in Azerbaijan, especially after
the last parliamentary elections, the problem of corruption in the
government.
‘It was hardly coincidence that right after the failure in
Rambouillet, the US `found’ proofs that the well-known Czech
businessman Viktor Kozeny continued bribing top Azeri officials after
1998. It seems that Washington has made `the Kozeny case’ `a
long-playing record’ for playing it every time Baku tries to `defy’
its plans in the region. Moreover, the same reliable diplomatic
sources say that Baku will hardly get `support’ from Russia, who
wants to `freeze’ the conflict most of all. This time, Russia has
decided to give its `reliable ally,’ its `outpost’ in the South
Caucasus Armenia and its `strategic partner’ Azerbaijan `to the
mercy’ of the US. Just one look is enough to see that Russia is
actually doing that.
`…The situation is not easy. Unfortunately, Azerbaijan has little
inner capacity to resist the outer pressure in the Armenian-Azeri
peace process. In his time Haydar Aliyev (Azeri president in
1993-2003 – REGNUM) left room for system opposition and could
actively use them if offered unfavorable peace scenarios. The
`Azeri-way’ parliamentary elections can become a `Pyrrhic victory’
for the Azeri elite. The point is that having crushed the opposition
before, during and after the elections, the elite can hardly convince
the international community now that it will not be able to cope with
them if it agrees to the MG-proposed peace agreement. One can guess
that this time the US may use the opposition to its own ends, but one
can hardly imagine how. But one can’t but notice that during his Baku
visit Daniel Fried met with only one Azeri opposition leader – the
baskan (leader – REGNUM) of Musavat party Isa Gambar…’
The US will keep an intent eye on the May 2006 repeated parliamentary
elections in Azerbaijan, US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe
and Eurasia Daniel Fried says in Baku. He says that they in the US
are disappointed that the Nov 2005 parliamentary elections were not
as free and fair as they expected. They urged the Azeri government to
repeat voting in the districts with biggest violations. Democracy
development in Azerbaijan is and will be a key goal of the US policy,
says Fried and notes that a strong government should have a strong
opposition. (Zerkalo)
`To fight religious-extremist groups is one of the primary tasks of
the Azeri special services,’ Azeri National Security Minister Eldar
Mahmudov says in an interview to Interfax-Azerbaijan. `Now those
groups are mostly engaged in terrorist activities to overthrow the
present secular democratic regime and to force Azerbaijan to refuse
from involvement in international anti-terror operations,’ says
Mahmudov. `Their methods are to commit terrorist acts against vital
strategic facilities, embassies, wherever foreign citizens work and
live.’ `And to solve this problem we need not only administrative,
legal or urgent measures, but also social work and instruction. The
practice shows that the core of any extremist groups is basically
religious young people from poor families, students majoring in
theology or jobless youths. To prevent religious extremism we must
timely keep Azeri youths from getting into its nets. This is a very
hard job: despite our big experience and active work, we were really
shocked to find out that Al-Qaeda was planning to recruit Azeri young
girls as suicide bombers (shahids),’ notes Mahmudov.
The opposition Musavat party is planning mass actions for Apr, says
the party’s vice chairman Arif Gajily. They are planning rallies in
the districts of repeated elections and also a republican rally in
Baku. (Yeni Musavat)
`The state financing of the Azeri political parties is impossible
this year,’ says the executive secretary of the ruling Yeni
Azerbaycan party, MP Ali Ahmetov. The key reason is that the state
budget has no relevant allocations. State financing is a good but
also a hard thing. The public should first decide the criteria and
mechanisms of such financing. `If everybody decides that the state
should finance the parties, we will discuss this problem at a higher
level. I hope that the Azeri authorities will soon decide that such
financing is necessary and will take measures to this end,’ says
Ahmedov. (Trend)
`It is for the states themselves rather that for international
organizations to ensure the transport security of the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline on their territories,’ Azeri Deputy
Prime Minister Abid Sharifov said at a news conference. He reminded
the journalists of the repeated breaks of the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline
and noted that BTC may face the same danger. `Now that the pipe is
not yet full with oil, we are not expecting such dangers, but they
are still possible – not in Azerbaijan, but in the other BTC states,’
Sharifov said. (New Time)
`A junior sergeant of the Azeri army has confessed his cooperation in
captivity with the Armenian secret services,’ reports AzerTag.
“Counter-intelligence into the case of junior sergeant of N military
unit of the Azeri Defense Ministry Bekirov Ruslan Hagani Oglu, 1985,
called up by the Shamkir military commissariat and held in captivity
by the Armenians Feb 15-May 7 2005, has proved that he was in secret
cooperation with the Armenian secret services.
Misled by the Armenians, the commander of the N unit Ruslan Bekirov,
together with his men Abdulayev Hayal Idris Oglu, 1986, and Tagiyev
Hikmet Adem Oglu, 1983, deserted to the enemy Feb 15 2005, thereby
betraying his Fatherland and causing detriment to the national
security, sovereignty, territorial integrity and defense of the
Azerbaijani Republic.
Upon being brought back from captivity by ICRC, Bekirov admitted his
cooperation with the Armenians. But counter-intelligence showed that
Bekirov’s first testimony was part of the Armenians’ secret plan. As
a result, Bekirov confessed that the Armenians persuaded him,
Abdullayev and Tagiyev into secret cooperation.
They met with Bekirov 7 times and, finally, got him to pledge secret
cooperation on paper and video. They nicked him `Ramin’ and told him
how to keep contact. They promised him $3,000-4,000 for each mission.
An Armenian secret agent, calling himself Rudik, told Bekirov to
organize blasts on the route of the Azeri president, at BTC and in
the territory of Haydar Aliyev Airport as well as to photograph
various military-strategic facilities and to send the pictures to
Armenia.
All the above facts were proved. The Military Council of the AR Court
on Grave Crimes ruled Oct 7 to imprison Bekirov and Abdullayev for 12
years – for high treason (article 274), desertion at war time or on
duty (334.3), abuse of duty (338.1) and abuse of powers (341.3),
while Tagiyev for 11 years – for high treason (274), desertion at war
time or on duty (334.3) and abuse of duty (338.1).
Mar 16 several members of the Organization for Karabakh Liberation
(OKL) tried to prevent the participation of Armenian delegates in the
OSCE Economic Forum preparatory conference in Baku, but were stopped
by the police. 10 OKL members were arrested. In its following
statement, the OKL says that by its actions the OSCE is trying to
justify the `occupant’ policy of Armenia, to force Azerbaijan to make
it up with the enemy and to put up with the loss of its lands. The
OKL qualifies the OSCE’s actions as disrespect for the international
law. The OIL also blames the Azeri government for allowing the
Armenian delegates to come to Baku. The arrested OKL members are
still in custody. (525th Daily)
Iran. Diplomatic scandal
In a Mar 14 Baku press-conference US Assistant Secretary of State for
Europe and Eurasia Daniel Fried said that he had discussed the
problem of Iran’s nuclear program with the Azeri leaders and noted
that the US would discuss with Azerbaijan all its possible actions
Iran. Fried said that the US did not want this to happen and hoped
that the world community would convince Iran to stop its nuclear
program. (525th Daily)
`Whatever the further developments, we better be on the safe side of
it and consider the possible outcomes of the US war against Iran. If
one sunny morning we are suddenly waked up by a thunder of blowing up
bombs in neighboring Iran, like it or not, but we will have to think:
what to do?’ says Zerkalo. `Not to get in is certainly the best way
for us. But the question is if a small country like us will be able
to stay `weightless’ so close from Iran. We are by far not Turkey yet
to be able to keep relations with Iran and to oppose its strategic
partner US in the matter. On the other hand, even if we manage to
stay calm and aloof, we will have to manage the inevitable surge of
Iranian refugees in our country…’
Mar 17 the Iranian Embassy in Baku sent the Azeri FM a note of
protest against some anti-Iranian statements made during the Mar 16
2nd World Azeris Congress. The note says: `We deeply regret to see
some anti-Iranian elements taking part in the congress and strongly
protest against their groundless and unfriendly statements about
Iran’s internal affairs. We also condemn the actions openly
interfering in our domestic affairs and running counter to the
internationally recognized norms and to the principles of friendly
relations between two neighboring and brotherly states. This is also
contrary to Azerbaijan’s commitments under the agreement on
friendship and cooperation signed by our former presidents in Tehran
in May 2002. We are surprised to hear anti-Iranian statements during
an event organized by the Azeri government as well as statements
referring to the Turkmanchay Treaty and presenting Azerbaijan as a
divided state.’ The note points out that now that Azerbaijan is
facing a territorial problem itself, such statements damage its own
interests and bilateral relations with Iran. `The Embassy of the
Islamic Republic of Iran in Baku strongly demands that the Azeri
government stop such actions by anti-Iranian elements, calls for
signing an agreement on friendship and asks to respect the principles
of good neighborhood.’ (525th Daily)
Azerbaijan-Armenia. Karabakh problem
One cannot solve the Karabakh problem by such statements, US
Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia Daniel Fried said
in Baku, while commenting on the statement of Armenian President
Robert Kocharyan that Armenia will recognize Nagorno Karabakh’s
independence if the peace talks fail. (525th Daily)
`Armenia has deployed vast loads of arms and military hardware,’
Azeri Defense Minister Safar Abiyev said in a meeting with his
Romanian counterpart Teodor Atanasiu. He said that Armenia has moved
its vast arsenal to the `occupied’ Azeri territories. (Trend)
`They in Azerbaijan are displeased with the western scheme of the
Karabakh conflict settlement,’ says Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta. `The
West is actively taking over Russia’s initiative in settling the
frozen CIS conflicts. The German-US Marshall Fund has joined the EU
and the US in this process.’
Recently The Washington Post published an article by Ana Palacio, the
former foreign minister of Spain, and Daniel Twining, an Oxford-based
consultant to the German Marshall Fund of the United States. The
authors urge Europe and the US to jointly battle the `shadow empire’
of Russia, who is trying to `retain political and military suzerainty
over their weaker neighbors.’ As a counteraction the West should
`require closure of the Russian bases on Armenian and Georgian
territory, support Georgian calls to internationalize the
Russian-dominated `peacekeeping’ force in South Ossetia and Abkhazia
and offer a mini-Marshall Plan for the entire South Caucasus.’ The
details of the plan are given in the paragraph about the Karabakh
conflict. The authors say that `this barely frozen conflict threatens
a hot war that would devastate the region.’
But `it is also the place where a breakthrough is perhaps most
likely. Western governments could support a settlement there in which
Armenia returned to Azerbaijan the occupied provinces surrounding the
disputed territory and allowed Azerbaijani refugees to resettle
there. Nagorno- Karabakh could enjoy full autonomy until its ultimate
status was decided by democratic referendum at some future date.’
The Azeri authorities have not yet reacted to these recommendations.
But the local media and most political experts strongly object to the
idea of a Karabakh status referendum. Considering The Washington
Post’s close relations with the White House, they take the above
article as the outlines of the US’ Armenia-Azerbaijan reconciliation
plan.
`A plan Baku must not accept,’ says well-known Azeri political expert
Rasim Musabekov. He says that `the Azeri leaders must in no way
accept the idea of Karabakh status referendum.’ `The very acceptance
of this norm will mean our renouncement of the principle of
Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and de facto recognition of the
right of the Armenian community of Nagorno Karabakh to
self-determination,’ Musabekov says to NG.
Azeri experts say that the `new Marshall plan’ is not a fantasy by
retired western politicians but a joint concept by the West and the
US to ensure control over the South Caucasus. It is for OSCE MG US
Co-Chair Steven Mann to make this concept true. His abilities are not
just hearsay in Azerbaijan: it was due to his efforts mostly that BTC
is a reality. They in Baku assume that Mann may have already got the
agreement of the Georgian and Armenian leaders by promising them
hundreds of millions of US dollars in free Millennium Challenge
assistance in exchange for their support of the new `Marshall plan.’
Baku experts say that this is hardly a bait for the self-sufficient
Azerbaijan. At stake is Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity – if Ilham
Aliyev accepts the new `Marshall plan’ he will lose Nagorno Karabakh.
To get him to accept the plan and to agree with Robert Kocharyan one
will probably need stronger arguments, says NG.
In its `Armenia’ section the official site of RAO UES calls Shusha –
Shushi, Lachin – Kashadag, Nagorno Karabakh – Nagorno Karabakh
Republic; with no Naxchivan mentioned as part of Azerbaijan in
`Azerbaijan’ section. In this connection, Azeri NGOs and media are
going to launch a campaign against RAO UES, reports Real Azerbaijan.
No Azeri soldiers will take part in any military exercises in the
territory of Armenia, says the deputy spokesman of the Azeri Defense
Ministry Ilgar Verdiyev. Earlier Armenian Deputy Defense Minister
Artur Agabekyan said that in June 2006 Armenia will host NATO PfP
Rescuer 2006 exercises. He said that attending the exercises will be
representatives from 20 countries and probably from Turkey and
Azerbaijan. The Azeri DM reacted by saying that this is impossible.
`Armenia takes just a formal part in the NATO PfP program. They hold
just one formal PfP event in a whole year,’ says Verdiyev and notes
that even if the Azeri DM gets an official invitation to take part in
any military event in Armenia, it will not accept it. (Trend)