Yuri Sokolov
The situation in the South Caucasus is unstable again. On the border with Iran and Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan have begun a new stage of the exercises “Indestructible Brotherhood-2021”. Iran, in turn, is carrying out maneuvers on the border with Azerbaijan. The parties exchange unfriendly statements and link them with the results of the war in Karabakh. Gazeta.ru understood the reasons for this tension and how it would affect Moscow’s interests.
“Conquerors of Khaybar” vs. “Brotherhood-2021”
The first anniversary of the second Karabakh war gave rise to new contradictions in Transcaucasia. They manifested themselves in early September, when Azerbaijan began to hinder the supply of Iranian fuel to Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azerbaijanis stopped freight transport from Iran, which was heading to Stepanakert, and charged a fare from each driver.
In response, the Iranian armed forces announced the Conquerors of Khaybar exercises in the northwest of the country. It is important to note that Tehran is conducting large-scale exercises on the border with Azerbaijan for the first time in 30 years.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made a loud statement. “T-hose who suffer from illusions will soon be slapped in the face. The countries of the region should not allow foreign armies to interfere, ”he said.
The Iranian government newspaper Vatan-e-Emrooz specified the official position of the state in a very peculiar way: “Ankara and Baku know that in case of a change in borders, Iranian troops will immediately enter the territory of Armenia and liquidate the Zionist uprising.”
Iran, apparently, hints at close military-technical cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel during last year’s war – in particular on drones. Although in Tel Aviv it was repeatedly emphasized that this interaction did not at all mean acceptance of one or another side of the conflict, but was explained only by commercial interests.
“Now Iranian propaganda is actively using the Israeli map for an internal audience, talks about the presence of the Israeli military in Azerbaijan and symbolically calls its teachings“ Conquerors of Kha-ybar ”in honor of the Battle of Khaibar in 629, where the troops of the Prophet Muhammad defeated the Jews. However, in reality, the Iranians are not worried about Tel Aviv, but Ankara,” – Isa Javadov, a historian and orientalist, told Gazeta.Ru.
Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey announced their intention to conduct joint maneuvers as part of the next stage of “Indes-tructible Brotherhood-202-1” on October 5-8 on the border with Armenia and Iran, in the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic.
At the same time, the parties focused on the fact that they are talking about “measures for demining and training in the territories liberated from the Armenian occupation.” In Yerevan, it seems, they took the hint. In any case, on October 4, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan arrived in Tehran for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian.
Zangezur Corridor of Discord
Regardless of the reasons that prompted Iran to defend its position at the diplomatic and military level, it is difficult not to notice that Tehran’s policy has changed markedly with the coming to power of President Ibrahim Raisi in the summer of 2021.
“The situation is very alarming, since the actions of the new president are rather unconstructive and clearly not peaceful. I hardly imagine that ex-Pres-ident Rouhani would use escalation to advance his goals, as Raisi does, ”says Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies, IMEMO RAN .However, according to t-he expert, it will be difficult for Tehran to change the balance of power in the region.
“The ability of Baku to influence the Iranian-Armenian trade by blocking the Goris-Kapan highway was only a trigger for the accumulating discontent of Iran. In the long term, Iran fears the opening of the Zangezur corridor, which will connect Azerbaijan and Turkey by land and will be able to attract the Azerbaijani-Turkish military presence on the border of Iran and Armenia under various pretexts, ”Javadov said.
Thus, the transit of Iranian products and energy resources through Armenia to other regions will be jeopardized, and the Cauca-sus will become another place where Ankara will seize the levers of pressure on Iran, the expert said.
“Tehran’s militant rhetoric adds even more complexity to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh co-nflict, which is already filled with internal dynamics. But the most unpleasant thing for Moscow is that such rhetoric of Tehran gives Ankara even more opportunities to act as the patron of Baku and, accordingly, get even more reas-ons to increase its influence in Azerbaijan,” Pritchin said.
At the moment, the strategy of the Iranian leadership strongly contradicts the roadmap of the Karabakh settlement outlined by Russia. “By its demonstrative unwillingness to build the Zangezur corridor, Iran is actually torpedoing the achievements of Russian diplomacy in unblocking transport communications,” Isa Javadov explained.
Nevertheless, a positive outcome for the Iranian side under a military scenario is hardly visible, the expert said.
The armed formations of the Islamic Republic are now involved in Syria and Iraq, significant costs are spent on financing allied groups in Yemen and Lebanon, and instability in Afghanistan is a reason to keep troops in this direction. Another military conflict involving Iran will only exacerbate its international isolation and hit once again on the well-being of the population.
At the same time, neither Azerbaijan nor Turkey are also interested in the conflict, although they are pulling troops to the borders to demonstrate force. Russia, too, would be satisfied only with a balance of interests in the region, which excludes a military scenario. This probably explains the diplomatic work being carried out by the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Lavrov . On October 6, the minister plans to hold talks with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir Abdollahian.