ArmInfo.Turkey in tandem with Azerbaijan could take advantage of the crisis over Ukraine with a view of military occupation of Armenia's Syunik region, Ashot Melkonyan, Director of the Institute of History, RA Academy of Sciences, told ArmInfo.
"Nothing can be ruled out amid the geopolitical tension between the West and Russia. And Turkey is not at all on Russia's side in this game. I think that should the current tension develop into a full-scale war, the tandem, primarily Turkey, is sure to take its chance to finish what it started a hundred years ago. First of all, in view of the fact that a war in Ukraine will greatly weaken Russia, and it will not be capable of resisting Turkish military invasion of Syunik. As a result, Iran will be isolated, which will complicate Armenia's situation," he said.
The Armenian scholar hopes that Ankara and Baku will prove rather sensible and refrain from an overt incursion into Armenia and infringement on its sovereignty and territorial integrity, primarily in the context of prospective condemnation by the international community. Moreover, military incursion into Armenia's territory will leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) with no alternative but to respond. Otherwise, the CSTO will cease to exist even formally.
With respect to the current problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Mr Melkonyan notes that full- fledged border delimitation and demarcation will curb the Aliyev-led regime's appetite. Referring to the Azerbaijani president's statements, he notes that even signing of a peaceful treaty with Armenia will not force Azerbaijan to give up its "programmes to defend its vitally important interests."
"We realize that the 'programmes' imply Aliyev's claims to Syunik. In other words, Aliyev has reached the limits of his impudence by stating that even after signing a peace treaty with Armenia he and his 'elder brother' Erdogan will not give up their plans to invade Syunik. Thus they are obviously showing us that a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan does not at all mean peace along the Armenian-Turkish border. So we have to draw the following conclusions: the better we are prepared for another war the remoter will be its prospect for us," Mr Melkonyan said.