ArmInfo.At his press conference on Thursday Armenia's ex- president Robert Kocharyan pointed out three components of Armenia's security: armed forces, CSTO and relations with Russia, including the three cooperation-regulating agreements.
Elaborating on the first component, Armenia's army, Mr Kocharyan stated that Armenia's armed forces are incapable of ensuring the country's security and hardly anything was done last year to restore the army's efficiency. Striking evidence thereof is last year's events in Sisian.
"And the latest exposure of espionage is evidence of the moral and psychological atmosphere in our armed forces. The army's budget is not optimistic. The government is not paying proper attention to the army and the incumbent authorities do not appear to need an efficient army. Even when they raise pensions of prosecutors they forgive about officers," Mr Kocharyan said.
The second component is the CSTO's efficiency. It did not interfere when Armenia was attacked. Mr Kocharyan pointed out that the CSTO was established in 2002, with the Russia-Belarus, Russia-Armenia and Russia-Central Asia vectors.
"Challenges are different in the three directions. In many respects they have nothing in common. They all are parts of one organization, with Russia playing the central role and focusing its attention on all threats," Mr Kocharyan said.
In the context of Armenia as a CSTO member, he said that Georgia and Iran can hardly be expected to threaten Armenia. "The two remaining states are Azerbaijan and Turkey. And they are presenting extremely serious threats to Armenia. We must not disregard the fact that all the CSTO member-states, except for Russia, have much warmer and deeper relations with both Azerbaijan and Turkey than with Armenia in all the fields," Mr Kocharyan said.
Moreover, some of the Central Asian states, Turkey and Azerbaijan are members of the same organization and their leaders have closer personal contacts. "So it was na‹ve to think that the CSTO could in any way respond to that attack. And it is not because the CSTO is a dead or inefficient structure. It is rather efficient when all the members' interests are concurrent, and Kazakhstan is an example. This is a fact we cannot ignore. Should Armenia remain a CSTO member? Yes, of course it should. First, because no other structure could replace the CSTO. Second, numerous documents signed within this organization regulate our military and technical cooperation with Russia," Mr Kocharyan said.
With respect to the third component, cooperation with Russia, he noted security is the only factor working in Armenia now.
"It is an efficient factor, but the war revealed a number of problems. First, the absence of border with Russia revealed certain limits to Russia's interference and support. No answer has so far been given to the question as to why Georgia's air space was closed for military aircraft. Was not that a surprise to our authorities? No answer has so far been given to the question as to why Iran's air space was closed. The two factors had their effect on the results of the war," Mr Kocharyan said. According to him, accusations against the authorities depend on whether they had or had not considered the factors. In the latter case they resorted to a conflict in Tavush.
Russia's mediation in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process greatly restricts its free actions. Another fact is Turkey's growing role in the south Caucasus. And if the above is considered in one context, on can see a dismal picture, Mr Kocharyan said, adding he does not see any serious steps to improve the situation. As to the steps that need to be made now, he pointed out measures that would enable independent activities of Armenia's armed forces for at least half a year and creation of a military-industrial complex. Otherwise, Armenia will sooner or later face similar challenges.
Mr Kocharyan highlights the importance of realizing if Armenia is capable of accomplishing such tasks by itself.
"I do not think so. Therefore, we neeed to know if Russia is ready to render such assistance to Armenia in terms of scale and quality. I am sure it is possible. But I doubt whether such a request has been made. We also have serious questions concerning the air space and a possibility of Armenia's total blockade in the future," Mr Kocharyan said. He said he had never faced such problems or thought Armenia would ever come to such relations with Georgia.
In this context, Armenia's ex-president put a rhetoric question as to whether it is the only way. "Yes, there is an alternative way, but I do not quite like it: accepting the Turkish-Azerbaijani threat as irresistible and yielding to it. It is a way too. Following the way of Adzharianization of Armenia. Turkey will stop perceiving Armenia as an obstacle to its programmes in one case alone – total influence on our policy. It implies Turkey's dominant role in our economy and influence on our political elites. When will it be possible? When Russia's diminishing influence is replaced with Turkey's influence. It will be possible if Armenia surrenders Artsakh. It is one of the preconditions that could be set to Armenia. And the USA will certainly support this policy as, with the present confrontation between the West and Russia, it suggests a way of putting an end to Russian influence," Mr Kocharyan said.
In this context, he points out that Armenia is now following the second way. The difference between the two ways is that Russia prefers a powerful partner in the South Caucasus. And Armenia had until a certain moment been such a factor in the region.
"Turkey is interested in an extremely weak Armenia as in this case it cannot be an obstacle to Turkey's long-term goals. This is the difference," Mr Kocharyan said.
All these questions are evidence of the Armenian society's negative attitude to such processes. However, Georgia's example has shown that active propaganda can change the public sentiment in a short period.
What is in question is not commitment to Russia, but Armenia's progress, its future and national interests, Mr Kocharyan said.
