AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT VISITS WASHINGTON
Shahin Abbasov and Khadija Ismailova
EurasiaNet, NY
April 26 2006
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev began a three-day visit to
Washington on April 26 that could help determine whether the Bush
Administration pursues a military option against Iran as part of its
ongoing effort to thwart Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
The key talks of the hastily arranged trip will come on April 28,
when Aliyev is scheduled to meet with US President George W. Bush.
Aliyev has long sought a photo-op with Bush out of the apparent belief
that the US presidential imprimatur of approval would greatly enhance
the Azerbaijani leader’s legitimacy. Aliyev’s election win in 2003
was marred by widespread irregularities and police repression against
demonstrators. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. US
officials had resisted inviting Aliyev to a White House, feeling
that an Oval Office meeting would be perceived internationally
as undermining the Bush Administration’s global democratization
mission. The administration’s ardor for pressing an international
democratic agenda has cooled perceptibly in recent months, as its
concern over Iran’s nuclear program has risen. [For background see
the Eurasia Insight archive].
Apparently aiming to burnish his image, Aliyev on April 26 met with
representatives of prominent non-governmental organizations that
promote civil society, including Freedom House, Human Rights Watch and
the Open Society Institute. [EurasiaNet operates under the auspices
of the Open Society Institute].
Aliyev’s discussions with various US officials are expected to focus
on geopolitical issues in the Caucasus, including the response to
Iran’s nuclear program, breaking the stalemate in Nagorno-Karabakh
peace talks and Caspian Basin energy-related issues.
US officials are believed to be most interested in discussing Iran,
Azerbaijan’s southern neighbor. Since the announcement earlier this
month that Aliyev would be traveling to Washington, Baku has buzzed
with speculation that the Bush administration wanted to enlist Aliyev’s
support for a blitz against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Such plans were reported by the American weekly magazine The New
Yorker. However, US officials have denied the magazine report.
Nevertheless, Bush on April 18 emphasized that “all options remain
on the table,” including the potential use of force, as Washington
ponders ways to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
All indicators show that securing Azerbaijan’s participation in any
offensive military operations against Iran will be an extremely tough
sell for Washington. Azerbaijani officials have shown no interest
in confronting Iran. On April 20, Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir
Taghizadeh indicated that Azerbaijan remains interested in balancing
its relations with both Iran and the United States. “In general
Baku’s position remains unchanged in two directions: Every country
has right to develop a nuclear program with peaceful goals, and our
region is vulnerable enough due to existing conflicts [to preclude]
adding a new source of tension,” Taghizadeh said.
Azerbaijani public opinion is also solidly opposed to a potential
conflict with Iran. Local newspapers and broadcast media have carried
reports in recent weeks critical of Bush’s confrontational approach,
and have urged the government to refrain from granting basing rights
to US forces, or providing any other form of assistance that would
facilitate an attack against Iran. In urging Baku’s neutrality in the
standoff, the reports have expressed alarm over a possible flood of
Iranian refugees into Azerbaijan, or retaliatory strikes by Tehran
against Azerbaijani targets.
Iranian officials have done nothing to discourage speculation
in Azerbaijan about military retaliation. Azerbaijani media have
given prominent play to recent comments made by Iranian National
Security Council chief Ali LAlijani, who said that an attack against
Azerbaijan’s economic lifeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline,
could not be excluded in the event hostilities between the United
States and Iran.
Aliyev moved quickly to quash expectations that Azerbaijani officials
could be persuaded to change their minds, telling members of the
Council on Foreign Relations during a closed-door meeting April 26 that
Baku would not be a participant in “any kind” of military operation
against Tehran. Although Aliyev appears committed to sitting out any
possible military clash between the United States and Iran, he may
be playing a diplomatic role aimed at heading off a conflict.
On April 19, Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar visited
Baku ostensibly for talks on mutual security issues. However, some
political analysts in Baku believe that Najjar passed an Iranian
message for Washington to Azerbaijani officials. Najjar helped fuel
such conjecture by saying Azerbaijan can act as a mediator in the
US-Iranian dispute. “Azerbaijan is our closest neighbor and … Ilham
Aliyev can convince the United States to understand Iran’s position
properly,” Najjar said.
Other observers say Najjar’s visit was designed to remind Baku of the
high risks it would take if it opted to join an American coalition
against Iran. Uzeyir Jafarov, a Baku-based military expert, said
Najjar probably delivered a blunt message that Azerbaijan could not
expect to escape unscathed if Iran was attacked. “The Iranian minister
likely reminded Ilham Aliyev that in case of [Baku’s] participation
in any action against Iran, Azerbaijan would be the first to suffer,”
Jafarov said.
Hikmet Hajizade, the political analyst and vice-president of
FAR-center, a Baku-based NGO, suggested that the consequences could
be devastating for Azerbaijan. “Even pre-attack tension will impact
our interests. … If military action takes place, Azerbaijan could
experience retaliatory strikes against the BTC pipeline. Besides,
one day we could find Iranians naval vessels along the Azerbaijani
coast.” At the same time, Hajizade indicated that the worst possible
geopolitical scenario in the Caucasus for Azerbaijan could involve
a nuclear-armed Iran. “Azerbaijan’s interests [might] suffer more if
Iran develops its nuclear weapon,” he said.
If Aliyev is indeed acting as a messenger, there would seem to
be an opportunity in the near future for the Azerbaijani leader
to pass along any back-channel communication conveyed by the Bush
Administration. Iranian President Mahmmoud Ahmadinejad is planning to
visit Baku on May 4 to attend a summit of the Organization of Economic
Cooperation. Jafarov said that President Aliyev could update the
Iranian leader on any US proposals, counter-proposals or ultimatums
at that time.
A few opposition politicians and political experts in Baku have
suggested that Aliyev explore the possibility of a quid pro quo
involving Azerbaijani support for a US attack against Iran in exchange
for Washington’s unequivocal support for Baku on the Nagorno-Karabakh
question. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Currently, the United States is a member of the OSCE Minsk Group that
is acting as the chief mediator between Azerbaijan and Armenia. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Some recent statements by
Azerbaijani officials have prompted speculation of a possible linking
of Iran and Karabakh. On April 22, for example, Deputy Foreign Minister
Araz Azimov caused a sensation when he suggested that some Azerbaijani
regions currently under Armenian occupation could become embroiled
in a possible US-Iranian conflict, the Turan news agency reported.
Hajizade and other experts downplay such a connection. “The Karabakh
conflict is not just about United States’ will and the question is:
will the Washington able to push on Russia, which in its turn would
push Armenia to give up [some] of its claims. So far I do not see any
opportunity for US-Russia agreement on the issue,” Hikmet Hajizade
said.
Vardan Oskanian, the Armenian foreign minister, dismissed the
possibility of a US-Azerbaijani quid pro quo involving Karabakh. “It
is not a way that the United States operates. And such a deal would
not end with any positive result,” Oskanian said on April 19.
Editor’s Note: Khadija Ismayilova and Shain Abbasov are freelance
journalists based in Baku.