ArmInfo. The appointment of Philip Thomas Reeker as U.S. Co- Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group and refusal of the U.S. and French ambassadors to Azerbaijan to visit occupied Shushi are rather strong evidence of substantial disagreement of Washington and Paris with the post-war realities in the region, political scientist Robert Gevondyan said in an interview with ArmInfo.
"Amid the absence of a mutual deterrence system in the South Caucasus, such confrontation between the Collective West and the main beneficiaries of the 44-day war, Russia and Turkey, means both opportunities and new challenges for Armenia. In other words, it is rather ample room for Armenia to advance its interests by comparing them with the major external actors' interests," he said.
Any error in this game could result in rather grave consequences for Armenia, whereas any success could be of crucial importance. At present, the "post-war affiliation" of Armenia and Azerbaijan to Russia has not so far undergone any substantial changes. However, the actual inactivity of the OSCE Minsk Group Co- Chairs in the wake of the war resulted in Moscow and Brussels replacing them as venues for the talks.
Brussels is representing Washington as well. Thus, the EU is serving as the focus for two of the three MG co-chairs. The effectiveness of the simultaneous activities of the Moscow and Brussels venues can only be assessed after a relative balance of forces in the conflict-affected region has been established, while all the major and minor actors are accumulating political capital.
"As to the United States, it has been resuming its activity in the South Caucasus since Joe Biden was elected president. The appointment of a new OSCE co-chair by the U.S. and the 'Shushi demarche' are part of this process. And in this particular case, these actions are a response to the long-term disregard for Washington's interests by Russia in partnership with Turkey," Mr Gevordyan said.
In the foreseeable future, the United States and its western allies will continue actively opposing Russia's Eurasian policy and Turkey's neo-Ottoman policy. The regional policy Ankara and Moscow are pursuing now is aimed at dividing the region between themselves, Mr Gevordyan said.