Will a shakeup in the leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh affect Baku’s blockade of the territory, which is now in its 74th day?
The de facto president, Arayik Harutyunyan, sacked Ruben Vardanyan as state minister on February 23. Vardanyan is a Russian-Armenian billionaire and philanthropist who renounced his Russian citizenship and moved to Karabakh last September.
At the time, many locals hoped he could leverage his wealth and international connections to the benefit of the embattled region, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.
But life only got worse.
The blockade began on December 12, when a group of Azerbaijanis calling themselves “independent environmental activists” but supported by the government set up camp on the road near Shusha (Shushi). It has effectively closed the Lachin corridor, Karabakh’s lifeline to Armenia and the outside world, causing severe shortages and difficulties in obtaining basic necessities. Now only limited supplies get through, with the help of the International Committee of the Red Cross and the Russian peacekeepers.
Locals also endure frequent gas and electricity cuts and struggle to keep warm in the winter.
The UN’s International Court of Justice on February 22 ordered Azerbaijan to “ensure unimpeded movement” through the corridor. But the ruling will likely have no effect as there is no enforcement mechanism and Azerbaijan denies altogether that it is blocking the road.
It’s widely suspected that Vardanyan’s dismissal was a concession to Baku, which had long demanded the removal of “Moscow’s man” from the scene, alleging he was disrupting the peace talks that have followed Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2020 Second Karabakh War.
The president tapped Gurgen Nersisyan, Karabakh’s de facto prosecutor-general, to fill the post, which had originally been tailored to give Vardanyan significant authority, including in negotiations.
Lilit Shahverdyan is a journalist based in Stepanakert.