RFE/RL Armenian Report – 03/14/2023

                                        Tuesday, 


Armenia Sees High Risk Of ‘Escalation’ In Karabakh

        • Astghik Bedevian

Nagorno-Karabakh - Azerbaijani servicemen stand guard at a checkpoint next to 
the Lachin corridor, December 26, 2022.


Armenia continued to accuse Azerbaijan on Tuesday of planning to provoke fresh 
fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh or along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

“I consider the possibility of escalation to be high,” Prime Minister Nikol 
Pashinian told a news conference.

Pashinian pointed to Azerbaijan’s “increasingly aggressive rhetoric” and “some 
other information” which he refused to disclose.

In recent days, the Azerbaijani military has repeatedly accused Armenia of 
transporting military personnel and weapons to Karabakh and threatened to take 
“resolute” actions to stop the alleged shipments. Yerevan has strongly denied 
the allegations, saying that Baku may be preparing the ground for launching 
offensive military operations.

There has also been an increase in ceasefire violations reported by the 
conflicting sides.

Pashinian said a key task of the Armenian side now is to prove that “we are not 
the authors of that escalation.” He said the recent deployment of European Union 
monitors on the Armenian side of the border will serve that purpose. He 
expressed hope that Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh will also deter Baku.

Opposition lawmakers scoffed at Pashinian’s remarks. They said the heightened 
risk of another military escalation in the conflict underscores his 
administration’s failure to rebuild Armenia’s armed forces after the 2020 war in 
Karabakh.

“Our public has seen three attacks on Armenia since the 44-day war,” said Tigran 
Abrahamian of the Pativ Unem bloc. “In all three cases, with a few exceptions, 
it saw a state of disarray, the loss of hundreds of lives and hundreds of 
hectares of [Armenian] territory. That is to say that a deterrent, preventive 
mechanism, which Armenia was able to create, has not been created.”

Gegham Manukian of the Hayastan alliance similarly claimed that Pashinian has 
been busy trying to cement his hold on power instead of strengthening the 
country’s defense and security system.

In Manukian’s words, the deployment of 100 or so European monitors could on the 
contrary add to security threats facing Armenia because it was strongly opposed 
by Russia.

“[Pashinian] has argued that he invited the Europeans so that they monitor the 
actions of Armenia and the Russian [military] contingent and assure Azerbaijan 
that Armenia and Russia plan no military actions against Azerbaijan,” Manukian 
told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service.




Former NATO Chief Urges EU Pressure On Azerbaijan

        • Anush Mkrtchian

Armenia - Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen stands at an 
Armenian border checkpoint leading to the Lachin corridor, .


Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen urged the European Union to 
pressure Azerbaijan to end its “inhuman” blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh during a 
visit to Armenia on Tuesday.

He met with the country’s leaders before visiting an Armenian border checkpoint 
at the entrance to the Lachin corridor that has been blocked by Azerbaijani 
government-backed protesters for the last three months.

Rasmussen also toured the Armenian resort town of Jermuk which was shelled by 
Azerbaijani troops during last September’s heavy fighting on the 
Armenian-Azerbaijani border. He told reporters that he wanted to “watch with my 
own eyes the impact of Azerbaijan’s aggression against Armenia.”

Rasmussen, who headed NATO from 2009-2014, went on to condemn the Azerbaijani 
blockade of the sole road connecting Karabakh to Armenia.

“The blockade … means there is a lack of food and life-saving medicine in 
Nagorno-Karabakh,” he said. “We are faced with a humanitarian crisis that could 
develop into a humanitarian catastrophe.”

“That is why I send a very clear message today to President [Ilham] Aliyev of 
Azerbaijan: dissolve the blockade today immediately,” added Rasmussen.

The EU, he said, must put “maximum pressure” on Baku for that purpose.

“The European Union has made an energy deal with Azerbaijan, and that could be 
used as a platform for critical dialogue with the government of Azerbaijan,” he 
said. “It may be that President Aliyev is an autocrat like [Russian] President 
Putin, but I believe that President Aliyev would not like to be put into the 
same position to become an international pariah like President Putin.”

Armenia - Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen speaks to 
journalists in Jermuk, .

Like the United States and Russia, the EU has repeatedly called for the 
reopening of Karabakh’s land link with Armenia. The Azerbaijani government has 
dismissed such calls, saying that the protesters are right to demand that it be 
allowed to inspect “illegal” mining in Karabakh.

The EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, made clear in late January that the 
27-nation bloc is not considering imposing sanctions on Baku despite the 
continuing blockade.

The head of the EU’s executive body, Ursula von der Leyen, described Azerbaijan 
as a “key partner in our efforts to move away from Russian fossil fuels” when 
she signed the energy deal mentioned by Rasmussen last July. The EU is to double 
imports of Azerbaijani natural gas by 2027.

Rasmussen, who had also served as Denmark’s prime minister from 2001-2009, 
visited Armenia in his capacity as the founder of Rasmussen Global (RG), a 
European political consultancy advising governments and corporations. It is not 
clear whether the Armenian government is now among its clients.

The former NATO chief met with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, Defense Minister 
Suren Papikian and the secretary of Armenia’s Security Council, Armen Grigorian, 
on Monday. He said he arrived in the South Caucasus at the invitation of its 
government to help boost its ties with the West.

“It’s our intention to have very strong cooperation with the government of 
Armenia,” Rasmussen said, adding that RG will specifically seek to enhance 
Yerevan’s “political dialogue” with the EU.




Armenia’s Car Imports Booming Due To Sanctions On Russia

        • Satenik Kaghzvantsian

Armenia - Car carrier trailers line up near a customs terminal outside Gyumri, 



Armenia’ national customs service is struggling to cope with rapidly growing 
imports of cars that appear to be mostly re-exported to Russia as a result of 
Western sanctions against Moscow.

Western automakers pulled out of the Russian market following the start of the 
war in Ukraine, pushing up the prices of new cars and forcing many Russians to 
switch to cheaper used models. Car traders from other nations, including 
Armenia, rushed to take advantage of the market opportunity.

According to the State Revenue Committee (SRC), the number of cars imported to 
Armenia jumped nearly six-fold to almost 45,300 last year. The sharp increase is 
continuing unabated as evidenced by long lines of mainly second-hand cars formed 
outside the country’s main customs terminal processing imported vehicles.

The owners and drivers of car carrier trailers lined up near the facility close 
to Gyumri complain that they spend days waiting to pay import duties and 
complete the customs clearance process.

“More than 200 customs clearances a day are carried out here right now,” Rustam 
Badasian, the head of the SRC, told reporters when he visited the Gyumri 
terminal at the weekend. “There is a huge influx [of imported cars] which we 
haven’t seen before.”

Badasian acknowledged that most of the vehicles brought to Armenia these are 
re-exported to Russia. Armenia’s membership in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic 
Union (EEU) means that they are exempt from import duties in Russia and other 
EEU member states.

Armenia - Newly imported cars at a customs facility outside Gyumri, March 13, 
2023.

One Armenian car trader, who did not want to be identified, said the import boom 
began “in the middle of last year.”

“My guess is that 70-80 percent of the cars are then exported to the Russian 
Federation,” he told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service.

Other goods manufactured in third countries are also re-exported from Armenia to 
Russia due to the Western sanctions. This explains why Armenian exports to 
Russia nearly tripled, to $2.4 billion, in 2022.

Official Armenian statistics also shows that individual cash remittances from 
Russia to Armenia quadrupled to almost $3.2 billion in January-November 2022. 
The soaring trade with and cash flows from Russia are the main reason why the 
Armenian economy grew by 12.6 percent last year.

“We are not violating any international obligations or legal norms,” Badasian 
said when asked about suggestions that Armenia is one of the countries that are 
helping the Russians evade the crippling sanctions.

Earlier this month, the U.S. departments of Justice, Treasury and Commerce 
issued a joint “compliance note” warning companies about the risk of violating 
U.S. sanctions on Moscow. The notice said that third-party intermediaries have 
commonly used China, Armenia, Turkey and Uzbekistan as “transshipment points” to 
Russia as well as Belarus.




Pashinian Noncommittal On Karabakh’s Self-Determination

        • Ruzanna Stepanian

Armenia - Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian speaks during a news conference in 
Yerevan, .


Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian on Tuesday pointedly declined to back 
Nagorno-Karabakh residents’ right to self-determination, highlighting a major 
change in Armenia’s traditional policy on the conflict with Azerbaijan.

Successive Armenian governments for decades championed that right in peace talks 
mediated by the United States, Russia and France.

A year ago, Pashinian and other senior Armenian officials stopped making 
references to the principle of self-determination it in their public statements. 
They have since spoken instead of the need to ensure “the rights and security of 
the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh,” fuelling opposition allegations that Yerevan 
is now ready to agree to Azerbaijani control over the Armenian-populated region.

Pashinian stuck to that line during news conference in Yerevan.

“We have said and keep saying that the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh people’s 
rights and security is extremely important to us,” he said. “That is one of our 
key goals.”

“It’s up to the people and the government of Nagorno-Karabakh to decide the 
framework of the Nagorno-Karabakh people’s rights and security,” added Pashinian.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s office said on Monday that it is inviting 
“representatives of Karabakh’s Armenian community” to visit Baku for further 
talks on Karabakh’s “reintegration” into Azerbaijan. The authorities in 
Stepanakert rejected the offer, saying that the talks should take place at the 
Karabakh headquarters of Russian peacekeepers and focus on “humanitarian, 
technical and humanitarian issues.”

Karabakh’s five leading political groups issued late on Monday a joint statement 
demanding that Yerevan refrain from calling into question “the Artsakh people’s 
right to self-determination.” They said Pashinian’s administration must comply 
with a 1992 parliamentary act that bans Armenia’s government from signing any 
document that would recognize Azerbaijani sovereignty over Karabakh.

Pashinian did not clarify whether he could sign such a document. He again called 
for a direct dialogue between Baku and Stepanakert.

The prime minister charged at the same time that Baku is seeking a “mandate to 
perpetrate genocide or ethnic cleansing in Karabakh.”

Pashinian stated in January that the international community has always regarded 
Karabakh as an integral part of Azerbaijan. The claim was denounced by the 
Armenian opposition and Karabakh’s leadership.


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