A possible peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia could put an end to the ongoing conflict between the two Caucasus nations. However, several issues remain unresolved—and perhaps not only by the two countries in question.
After initial talks facilitated last week by Russian President Vladimir Putin between Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, the next round of meetings will likely include a wider group of European leaders, such as French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
The possibility of an agreement between the bitter rivals came closer to fruition after Pashinyan declared that Yerevan would recognize the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabah—known to Armenians as Artsakh—as Azerbaijani territory.
Pashinyan said in a May 22 press conference that “Armenia recognizes Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity of 86,600 square kilometers, assuming that Azerbaijan recognizes Armenia’s territorial integrity as 29,800 square kilometers.”
“Those 86,600 square kilometers also include Nagorno-Karabakh,” Pashinyan added, according to the news website Ostorozhno, Novosti.
The territorial enclave, surrounded by Azerbaijan, is home to 120,000 ethnic Armenians. Nagorno-Karabakh is widely recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan, even though the population voted to break away from Baku after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The decision led to fighting until 1994 when a cease-fire went into effect.
In 2020, another war erupted, forcing Armenia to cede roughly two-thirds of Artsakh. The remaining cities are connected to Armenia through the Lachin corridor, which was under the control of Russian peacekeepers. In December, however, Azeri forces initiated a blockade on the region, cutting off residents from food, medicine, and often, electricity and gas as well. In April, Azerbaijan set up a checkpoint controlling access to Artsakh that Armenia claims bypasses the Russian control of the area.
The territorial enclave, surrounded by Azerbaijan, is home to 120,000 ethnic Armenians. Nagorno-Karabakh is widely recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan, even though the population voted to break away from Baku after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The decision led to fighting until 1994 when a cease-fire went into effect.
In 2020, another war erupted, forcing Armenia to cede roughly two-thirds of Artsakh. The remaining cities are connected to Armenia through the Lachin corridor, which was under the control of Russian peacekeepers. In December, however, Azeri forces initiated a blockade on the region, cutting off residents from food, medicine, and often, electricity and gas as well. In April, Azerbaijan set up a checkpoint controlling access to Artsakh that Armenia claims bypasses the Russian control of the area.
Larger both geographically and militarily, and with key regional allies such as Turkey and Israel, Azerbaijan does appear to hold the cards in these negotiations. This is fueling fears among Armenians that the Azeri president will make good on his word to “return” to large parts of Armenian territory that he claims as Azerbaijan’s “historic lands.”
“Aliyev is definitely feeling he has the upper hand now and he can definitely pursue further aggressiveness in the region and beyond that,” Ben Aharon said. “It is not something that we cannot consider.”
US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, however, praised the progress and said on Twitter that “a final agreement is in reach, and we are determined to help our friends achieve it.”
“There will be a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and it will be based on the joint official statements adopted at the highest level. There won’t be а new escalation! The international community must strongly support this narrative,” he wrote.
Putin was optimistic after last week’s meetings.
“There are still unresolved questions, but in my opinion, and we discussed this with our Azeri and our Armenian colleagues, they are of a purely technical nature,” he said.