WHO STARTS WITH THE WHITES AND WHO WILL FINISH WITH THE BLACKS?
Lragir.am
19 July 06
The government keeps up with the opposition. If formerly there was
a profusion of presidential candidates from opposition (at least
3-5), the picture has changed before the presidential election 2008,
and the government will name more candidates than the opposition,
or an equal number. In fact, the notion of an opposition candidate is
relative, because most of them willy-nilly, mainly "nilly" represent
the interests of the government. At least, the government benefited
from the activities of opposition candidates in the election rather
than the opposition. But this is typically a Soviet thing, and it is
not worthwhile to spend time and space on it, although the web gives
almost unlimited possibilities.
The processes underway in the opposition camp are more interesting.
Currently, almost two years before the presidential election there are
already two presidential candidates from the opposition in Armenia,
who want to become the next president of the Republic. In addition,
both are ministers. If we count Davit Harutiunyan too, the candidates
are three, however the minister of justice has offered a bid for
political activity only. As for his ultimate goal, Davit Harutiunyan
has not even hinted at it.
So the society can follow the activities of Vardan Oskanyan and
Serge Sargsyan only, because they are alone from the government
who indirectly but frankly explained to the public why they fail to
fulfill their duties or why they fulfill their duties on the move.
Vardan Oskanyan says he is not thinking about it and focuses on his
work. But probably it is the habit of diplomats to say the opposite
thing. Vardan Oskanyan is thinking about presidency when he says he
is not thinking. The point is that the image of a candidate is built
on the following: not an almighty, or as it is accepted to says, a
"super minister", who considers presidency his natural right, but a
minister who achieved everything with "hard work", earning the sympathy
of the public. And Vardan Oskanyan’s likelihood to become president
was confirmed during his press conference on July 14, when the foreign
minister dwelled on the topic of internal political reforms.
The behavior of both candidates shows that it is more probable that
Vardan Oskanyan and Serge Sargsyan represent different power. If they
were the personages of the same director and screenplay, logically they
would build their tactics on not transgressing each others fields. If
Serge Sargsyan is the administrative-criminal option of heir of power,
he nonetheless needs public resource. After all, he needs at least
1 percent to change it into 51. Therefore, it would be to ingenuous
to think that Robert Kocharyan does not realize this and gave Vardan
Oskanyan the chance to gather points at the exense of Serge Sargsyan
by mistake. Robert Kocharyan realized what he was doing, otherwise
Oskanyan could have targeted at Andranik Margaryan. But since his
(which is the same as Robert Kocharyan’s) opponent is Serge Sargsyan,
the target must be the defense minister. And when Vardan Oskanyan
says he is not thinking about presidency and is busy doing his work,
it is self-evident that he hints at Serge Sargsyan, who is busy doing
everything that leads to presidency except his duties.
Besides, Vardan Oskanyan made several statements in his speech on July
14, which both hit the defense minister candidate and are pre-election
"self-advertisement". It also became known from Oskanyan’s words that
the problem of heir of power has been withdrawn from the political
agenda of Armenia. The foreign minister announced that the country’s
objectives need to be formulated to decide which political force
can and must fulfill these objectives. Oskanyan revealed the charm
of this innocent statement at first sight in the continuation,
when he presented the objectives: economic and political reform,
Armenia-Diaspora relations. "Which political force can settle these
problems?" asked Vardan Oskanyan.
It is an interesting question, the answer to which is self-evident.
Speaking about reforms, Vardan Oskanyan announced that these will
strike the political and economic elite, and their implementation
requires courage. What does this mean? This means that a strong
government is required to implement them, which must have few
relations with this elite, whose economic and political interests are
endangered. Power in Armenia still belongs to Robert Kocharyan, and
Serge Sargsyan is up for seizing this power through the Republican
Party. And the public official who has the least relation with
this elite is Vardan Oskanyan. It is true that he can be accused
of allowing his son to drive the public car, but on the other hand,
it is possible that the minister does not have enough money to buy
a car for his son, in other words, maybe he works honestly.
It appears that having Robert Kocharyan’s protection and a presumption
of honesty instead of wealth, Vardan Oskanyan is the suitable
candidate, who will bravely carry out the reforms striking the
elite. As for relations with the Diaspora, the difference between
language thinking of Vardan Oskanyan and Serge Sargsyan would not
let the defense minister even a chance to succeed.
Although Serge Sargsyan must realize that Vardan Oskanyan set out
late but goes rather fast and is even leaving him behind. Oskanyan
did not even wait until the conference of the Republican Party and
hinted that now it is time to make the list of public priorities,
not the list of party leaders. The Republicans and Serge Sargsyan are
supposed to answer Vardan Oskanyan, in other words, Robert Kocharyan.
We should confess that they will have an answer, moreover, they have
no other way out if they have assumed chess as the starting point:
either you take an answering step or you surrender, and if necessity
arises, they can also answer in a list, and perhaps much depends on
what list the Republicans will present – priorities, names, events,
objects or proposals, or five in one.
HAKOB BADALYAN