Final Countdown To Independence
Gulf News, United Arab Emirates
July 23 2006
By Borut Grgic, Special to Gulf News
The Kosovo final status debate will get a new feel after top leaders
from Kosovo and Serbia sit together with Marti Ahtisaari, the Finish
former president turned international negotiator in Vienna today.
They will be meeting in an effort to find a solution to the last status
question in the Balkans: Kosovo. The good thing is that this is the
first time the top leaders have agreed to talk. The bad thing is,
there is not much to talk about.
Belgrade and Pristina disagree on the fundamental principles in
as far as a stable solution is concerned. For Pristina, the only
acceptable outcome is independence. For Belgrade, it’s everything
but independence. This is no different from what the situation was
6 years ago when Nato members decided in favour of using force to
push back Slobodan Milosevic’s army but stopped short of recognising
Kosovo as an independent state.
Mistake; the time gained did little to convince the two sides to work
together, let alone live together. However, status ambiguity did
do one thing: it provided cheap political capital for the radicals
and the nationalists in Serbia to stay relevant. Kosovo is obviously
an emotional issue for the Serbs. It is a question of statehood for
the Albanians.
How high then to set the expectation bar for this today? Not very; much
will again depend on the international community. It is a good thing
that Marti Ahtisaari was able to get together top politicians from
both sides. These people have to talk and build interpersonal dynamics.
Irrespective of status, Serbia and Kosovo will remain linked by
a boarder and interoperable economic interests. Serbia will look
to Kosovo for importing cheap electricity whereas Kosovo will look
to Serbia for other trade opportunities. In this light, a dialogue
between the two sides needs to start now and should continue.
Status question
But the solution to the status question will have to be imposed by
the internationals for the simple reason that no political leader in
Kosovo or Serbia would survive bringing back less than the whole pie.
Unfortunately, the political space on both sides is too immature to
see the long run in this.
The internationals however, cannot afford to be short sighted. The
precedent Kosovo will set can have broad implications, including for
South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Chechnya and not least Kurdistan.
The priority now is figuring out the legal context, which will set
Kosovo apart and present it as a unique case. Second, the post-status
role of the international community must be clearly defined.
There is no reason to go for an intrusive and overarching international
administrative unit. The Office of the High Representative in Bosnia
has a mixed record, while the Macedonian case – international mission
light – seems to be working much better. To a large extent, Kosovo
has the administrative capacity to run their affairs. The problem is
not in units but in efficiency.
Kosovo has economic potential. There is the electricity sector to
develop. Kosovo has some of the highest concentration of surface
lignite in the region. With investments made in additional production
capacity and in infrastructure upgrades, Kosovo could become a major
regional exporter of energy, not only electricity. By transforming
coal-to-liquid, Kosovo could begin producing gas and oil for export.
Second, Kosovo has enormous human resource potential. It has the
fastest growing and the youngest population in Europe.
Status is by no means the only issue left. Kosovo faces a difficult
transition ahead. Modernisation of the political system will be key.
Capital investment will not come to Kosovo if the post-status phase
is smeared by political turmoil.
Waiting for political conditions in Serbia to improve before declaring
Kosovo independent – an outcome everyone more or less aggress on and
expects – is futile. Serbia will not be saved in Kosovo; Serbia can
help itself if it develops a comprehensive strategy for reforms.
Likewise, Kosovo will not be saved by status, but also by reforms
and a clear EU perspective. As for Serbia, the only issue standing
between Serbia and its Stabilisation and Association Agreement is
Ratko Mladic. Arrest the general.
Borut Grgic is the director of the Institute for Strategic Studies
in Ljubljana.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
