IS THE US TRYING TO PUSH RUSSIA OUT OF THE OSCE MG? NAGORNO-KARABAKH PRESS DIGEST
Regnum, Russia
Aug 2 2006
OSCE Minsk Group
The Nagorno-Karabakh peace process has not changed much since 1992,
the former advisor of the NK president, the expert of the Caucasus
analytical center Manvel Sargsyan said during the seminar "The Role
of the Expert Community in the Nagorno-Karabakh Peace Process" in
Yerevan. "When the OSCE MG co-chairs ‘removed the brackets’ from
the negotiating process, people saw that almost nothing has changed
therein in the past 14 years," Sargsyan said. Today there is only
one global problem on the agenda – to coordinate the positions of
Yerevan, Baku and Stepanakert on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh.
"Until this problem is solved, there will be no sense to speak about
progress in the talks," Sargsyan said. (ARKA).
The OSCE MG co-chairs are going to hold one more consultation in
Paris in early August, reports Russian co-chair Yuri Merzlyakov. The
key objective of the meeting is to consider the results of US co-chair
Matthew Bryza’s visit to the region. Merzlyakov says that the co-chairs
do not know yet what decisions they will make and if they will discuss
organizing the next rounds of the talks. "We will decide this when
we meet. I don’t know what assessments the US co-chair will make. By
then he will have had his last contacts and will have talked with the
presidents and he will probably make some assessments. We’ll see and
decide," says Merzlyakov. (Trend).
OSCE MG US co-chair Matthew Bryza will visit Yerevan and Baku for
discussing new proposals for resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem,
Azeri FM Elmar Mammadyarov said during a press-conference. "We have
been told that he has some new elements and wants to discuss them with
us," Mammadyarov said. He said that Bryza will visit the region from
July 31 to August 1. He said that if Azerbaijan sees any chance for
progress in Bryza’s proposals, it may agree to the next round of the
FM talks. "We have been working on the key principles for two years
already. We have coordinated many of them, but we have some serious
problems left, and if Bryza brings some new ideas that will be able to
set things moving, we will agree to continue the process. If need be,
we may organize a new meeting," Mammadyarov said. (Day.Az).
The new OSCE MG co-chair from the US Matthew Bryza seems to be planning
a small revolution in one separate Nagorno-Karabakh negotiating
process, says Golos Armenii. The daily notes that for already a
month this young co-chair has been appearing with statements and
interviews almost every day and has been actively torpedoing (not to
say terrorizing) the slow negotiating process. In late July tireless
Bryza is going to visit the region once again. We doubt that he
will reverse the situation… but who knows. "Merely arithmetically,
7 months have passed since the beginning of 2006. This is a fact,
but only on the one hand. On the other hand, Bryza has been co-chair
for just a month yet, but people are already talking about him and
about what he says more than they ever have talked about any co-chair
before. They are even discussing his private life. And there are still
5 months left till the end of this year. And what if Bryza goes on
at the same speed?"
One should not pin great hopes on the visit of OSCE MG US co-chair
Matthew Bryza to the region, the charge d’affaires of Russia to
Azerbaijan Pyotr Burdykin says to APA. He says that his visit and talks
will just help him to get deeper insight into the situation in the
region: "The visit may well be followed by a new meeting of the FMs."
Political expert, the member of the board of Soros Foundation
Azerbaijan Ilgar Mamedov gives an interview to Echo daily.
"Which side loses more from the OSCE MG co-chairs’ proposals?
The proposals the new US co-chair made public of late had been
long known to analysts in Yerevan and Baku. They say nothing new in
principle. That is, the very fact of agreement is more important than
the content of the last OSCE MG statement on the key principles. The
co-chairs’ proposals give no clear answers to the sides’ questions.
They fail to answer the key question: whether Nagorno-Karabakh stays
within Azerbaijan or is given some status in the future. And this
is the only key question that separates the sides! On all the other
questions they may agree in some few days. The co-chairs demand that
this problem be solved by the presidents. In fact, these proposals
do not lesser the acuteness of the problem.
Some people say that the parties to the negotiating process are
being pressured. Who is pressured more – Baku or Yerevan? What kind
of pressure is this?
I can say that there is no tough pressure on the conflicting parties.
In fact, no less pressure is put on the OSCE MG itself. This pressure
comes from various academic, semi-academic structures and NGOs. They
demand that the OSCE MG comply with their own standards and principles
– principles that are often unrealistic and abstruse. One such
structure is the International Crisis Group.
Can we say that today the negotiating process is in the worst ever
crisis or there were even worse times?
There have been other crisis times, one of them even ended in
the shooting at the Armenian parliament. The present stage is not
fully critical. New war is hardly possible in the present situation
and, if the OSCE MG helps, will be absolutely impossible. Due to
BTC, Azerbaijan will earn huge money in the coming years and will,
certainly, spend much of it on its fighting capacity in order to regain
control over the occupied lands in the future. Armenia understands
this and is very much interested in resuming war in order to ruin
Azerbaijan’s oil contracts. At the same time, Armenia can’t resume
war itself as it is not sure that it will avoid total defeat.
How will the negotiating process develop in the near future?
Nothing special will happen. In fact, the key objective is not to
allow the resumption of war. I think it is impossible to resolve the
conflict and to sign a peace agreement now. Besides, they in Armenia
have almost started electoral campaign and any peace agreement Robert
Kocharyan will be ready to sign should reflect electoral pre-electoral
plans. Consequently, he cannot sign a document Armenia will not fully
accept. This means that it should be contrary to Azerbaijan’s national
interests, but this is something we will not accept.
You have mentioned the prospect of military resolution of the conflict,
but the general opinion in Azerbaijan is that however much we arm
and threaten, we will not start war, that Azerbaijan is too small
a country…
However, in its time, even smaller Armenia was allowed to do all it
wanted. The people saying that are too static, while the international
situation is dynamic, and there are always chances for military
resolution. I think that Azerbaijan, too, will get such a chance in
the future.
That is, in a new international situation Azerbaijan will always be
able to get a chance to solve the Karabakh problem in military way.
(Echo, with abridgements).
Everything that happened in the Karabakh peace process at that
time: the co-chairs’ statement that they have run out of fantasy,
the statement of Matthew Bryza, the fact that the co-chairs’ report
was placed on the site of the US Embassy in Armenia, but not on the
site of the US Embassy in Azerbaijan – all this seems to be poorly
coordinated steps, political expert Suren Zolyan says to Azg. He says
that if the goal of the co-chairs was to liven up the peace process,
they have failed because the process has died. By saying that they
have nothing more to do and now everything depends on the presidents,
the co-chairs have shown that they lack experience. Zolyan advises them
to go back home so the problem is tackled by those ‘who can.’ At the
same time, he notes that the format of the peace process will hardly
change, and hardly any other structure will say it wants to undertake
such a responsibility as very contradictory signals are being received
from the region. Concerning Bryza, Zolyan says that by his steps he has
proved that he is actually implementing the policy of the US president.
Fourth Power daily believes that by saying that they are stopping
their mission, the OSCE MG co-chairs are most probably blackmailing
Armenia and Azerbaijan: they have let them know that if they continue
wrecking their peace initiatives, they will leave them to deal with
more rigorous UN and NATO. Still, the co-chairs are obviously not
going ‘to wash their hands.’ The daily means the forthcoming visit of
Matthew Bryza to the region. ‘Though this may well be exclusively the
US’ initiative.’ The daily reports Azeri sources to say that during
the visit Bryza will analyze the primary situation and consider the
possibility of a breakthrough in the negotiating process.
Washington has started secret talks with Moscow and Paris for enlarging
the OSCE Minsk Group, Radio Liberty reports Ayna daily (Azerbaijan)
as saying. Referring to diplomatic sources, the daily says that the
US wants to involve the UK, Germany and Turkey in the MG. If the
talks are successful, the conflicting parties will be informed. At
the same time, Ayna doubts that the talks will give any results in
the near future as ‘even though Azerbaijan supports the idea of MG
enlargement, the Armenian side rejects it pointblank.’
Asked by Haykakan Zhamanak daily if there actually are such talks
underway and if the Armenian side is taking part in them, the acting
spokesman for the Armenian Foreign Ministry Vladimir Karapetyan said:
‘We doubt that this information is true. The membership of the MG
can be changed only with the consent of the conflicting parties.’
Karapetyan said that nobody has told the Armenian side anything about
that. However, the strangest thing is that it was not the only report
about possible change of the MG. RIA Novosti has reported the director
of the US and Canada Institute in Russia Sergey Rogov to say that
the US is seeking to push Russia out of the MG.
Views of the sides
The OSCE MG’s proposals could be acceptable were it not for
Azerbaijan’s aggressive policy, Armenian Prime Minister, the leader
of the Republican Party Andranik Margaryan said during the party’s
10th extraordinary congress. Azerbaijan is trying to pressure Armenia
by making bellicose statements and increasing its military budget.
Margaryan confirmed the RPA’s commitment to the peaceful resolution of
the conflict. He specified which settlement principles are important
for his party: Nagorno-Karabakh Republic must be recognized by the
international community, NK cannot stay under Azerbaijan’s control,
NK’s security must be guaranteed, NK must have a common border with
Armenia, change of borders is not a solution to the conflict, NK must
be involved in the peace talks as an equal party. Margaryan said
that the resolution of the conflict should be acceptable for all the
sides. (News-Armenia).
‘The proposed settlement scenario is not acceptable for us, on
the whole, as it mentions the yield of territories and does not
appropriately mention the self-determination right. However, since
Azerbaijan refuses to accept it, we will not say anything either,’
the member of the ARFD Bureau Kiro Manoyan says in an interview
to 168 Zham. Should Aliyev sign the agreement and Kocharyan give
back the territories, ‘Mr. Kiro threatens to exert pressure on the
president.’ Manoyan says that one way to do that will be rallies.
APA reports Azeri Defense Minister Safar Abiyev to say during his
meeting with EU Special Representative to the South Caucasus Peter
Semneby that ‘some people have artificially created the Armenian-Azeri
conflict’: ‘On the one hand, Armenia has occupied the Azeri lands, on
the other, it wants to create an atmosphere of mutual confidence with
Azerbaijan. We do not trust Armenia. If Armenia wants to attain mutual
confidence, it must withdraw its troops from the occupied Azeri lands,
refugees must be allowed to go back to their homes, infrastructure
of the occupied territories must be restored. This conflict must be
resolved within Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.’
‘Aliyev understands that the document that Nagorno-Karabakh should
belong to Azerbaijan will never be signed. The only way to get NK
is war. But does Azerbaijan need war now?,’ wonders the ex DM of
Armenia, the leader of the National-Democratic Union Vazgen Manukyan.
While speaking in the Partark discussion club, he said that to be
two and even three times stronger does not mean to win a war. When
one starts a war he does not know if he will win it or not. Second,
the Azeri clans are very well to do, they earn billions of dollars from
oil. ‘Why should they risk this all and start an unpromising war? This
does not mean that they will not start it at some time in the future,
but today one should not take this seriously. We should cold-bloodedly
negotiate and develop our state,’ Manukyan said. He believes that all
these years time has been serving Karabakh as everybody understands
that a state living independently for 15 years cannot be annexed to
another state. Things may start moving if Azerbaijan finally admits
that Karabakh cannot be its part, Manukyan said. Asked by Aravot:
‘Which one do you advocate: early settlement or status quo?,’ Manukyan
said: ‘I advocate early settlement but on condition that Azerbaijan
admits that Karabakh cannot be its part.’ ‘All the other issues can
be agreed on. Still, I don’t think we should haste the settlement
process because Azerbaijan refuses to admit this fact,’ Manukyan said.
"The efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict must be continued
in the framework of peace talks. In this context, the Armenian side
must stop making non-constructive statements concerning the talks and
must put up with the fact that the modern world does not accept the
occupation policy and the policy of ethnic cleansing. As regards,
the summit-level meetings, if the question is about the presidential
meetings, I can say that presently the sides are negotiating in
the framework of the "Prague peace process" – uncoordinated issues
are submitted for the Presidents’ discussion after coordination
by the FMs. Unfortunately, Armenia’s non-constructive position on
some issues, particularly, the return of refugees to their homes,
hinders the negotiating process. Positive resolution requires time. The
international law and international conventions clearly recognize the
right of displaced persons to go back to their permanent residencies,"
Azeri FM Elmar Mammadyarov says in an interview to Trend news agency.
"Today they say that Nagorno-Karabakh will join in the talks only
when the Armenian and Azeri presidents agree on something, but
I wonder why can’t NK join in at any moment? Bilateral format is
violation of the OSCE decisions," the foreign political advisor of
the NK president Arman Melikyan says in an interview to Caucasian
Knot. He says that today’s talks are not "Minsk Process" – the two
presidents are just holding consultations. "We have repeatedly said
that without considering NK’s position the sides will not be able to
attain long-term peace. I am sure that no solution can be implemented
without NK’s consent," says Melikyan.
Melikyan notes that according to Nagorno-Karabakh’s position, NK is an
independent state and this fact must be recognized by the international
community and, first of all, by Azerbaijan. The conflict comes from
Azerbaijan’s unwillingness to recognize the right of the NK people
to build its own state even though two equally legal states have been
formed in the territory of the former USSR: Nagorno-Karabakh Republic
and Azerbaijani Republic. The difference is that the international
community has actively promoted the building of the Azeri state and,
on the contrary, hindered the building of statehood in NK. "We want
this difference to be eliminated, and I think that this is quite
natural. At the same time, our position is getting increasingly
audible at international organizations," says Melikyan.