TURKEY IN A NEW TUG OF WAR
AZG Armenian Daily
16/08/2006
Many pundits predicted – and certainly all Armenians hoped – that
with the demise of the Cold War Turkey’s strategic importance would
become irrelevant and that a meeker and more conciliatory Turkey
would emerge in the Middle East.
But as the dust settles after the collapse of the Soviet Union,
a new Cold War is shaping up and Turkey is back to its balancing act.
Turkey’s accession to the European Union always presented a double-edge
sword for the European powers, especially for Armenia. Armenia’s
foreign policy thinking envisions a Turkey as a bully in a cage,
no longer in a position to threaten Armenia. The European Union has
its own conditions and terms for its members, enforcing civilized
conduct. That inspires Armenian policy makers to believe that economic
and military blockades may become things of the past.
But the reverse side of the coin is that Turkey, as a EU member, will
have more clout in the Union by the sheer weight of its population
to be able to block any decision favoring Armenia or its ethnic
Kurds. On top of that potential, Turkey has demonstrated that it can
have its cake and eat it too. A case in point is its adamant position
on Cyprus. Indeed, Ankara insists on keeping its occupation forces
on Cypriot soil, closing its port to Cypriot shipping, refusing to
recognize the Armenian genocide, and still continue accession talks
with the European Union. And this is tolerated by the European powers
and encouraged by the U.S.
Of course, the Bush administration has its own agenda for Turkey;
by supporting Ankara’s membership in the EU, Washington intends to
use Turkey as a spoiler in the EU, blocking its march towards an
independent political and military pole, in the meantime, distancing
Turkey from a possible coalition with a Moslem block, or especially
with Russia.
A disturbing scenario is emerging in this world power play. Indeed,
a recent article in London’s The Guardian (July 30, 2006) focused
on that scenario, quoting a speech by Joschka Fischer, former German
Foreign Minister. That evolving scenario has the following components;
as EU countries, and especially France and Germany, spurn Turkey’s
ambitions to joining the EU, Turkish nationalist forces are gaining
momentum in their strive to steer the country towards East, towards
the Islamic world, and especially towards Russia and Iran.
Russia and Turkey have been developing their political and economic
relations. Their two-way annual trade is estimated to reach the $20
billion mark, while two million Russian tourists visit Turkey every
year to dump their petrodollars in the latter’s tourist industry.
After the collapse of the empire, Russia is shaping up in a more
assertive posture. During the first few post-Soviet years, Republican
commentators ridiculed President Clinton’s policy of kowtowing to
Yeltsin, but from Washington’s perspective it was a most realistic
policy to keep Yeltsin – who failed all sobriety tests – in power
and Russia in turmoil.
Russia, with its huge oil windfall and Putin’s stern hand, gradually
is charting its own political course to challenge the West, especially
the U.S. Just recently, President Bush’s push to embolden and arm
Georgia against Russia, was countered by Chavez’s visit to Moscow to
acquire Sokhoy military aircraft and other hardware.
Russian policy to continue catering Iran’s development of civilian
nuclear capability has also been irritating Washington.
Should Ankara’s dreams of joining the EU collapse, Russia is ready
and willing to form an axis to counter the West. Iran has already
cultivated good neighborly relations with both, and could join the
axis, despite its historic animosity with the two former empires.
Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan met with President Putin four times
last year, in a sign of improving relations between the two countries.
Where do all these developments leave Armenia?
Certainly, these developments will push Yerevan to a more tenuous
situation. Iran and Russia had been catering Armenia in their bid to
steer Yerevan away from the West and from Turkey. As these centers
of power drive closer, Armenia will gradually become a marginal
entity. The Russian military base, which was considered a safeguard
against any potential Turkish aggression, will become an academic
presence. Any potential hostile act by Turkey will fail to compromise
Russo-Turkish rapprochement and friendship.
Armenia is in a bind: If Turkey joins the EU, except for some minor
benefits, the latter’s overpowering presence will always pose a
problem. On the other hand, if the pendulum swings the other way and
an axis is formed between Turkey, Russia and Iran, more ominous and
unpredictable prospects may arise.
Thus far Armenian foreign policy has charted its own wise course to
remain afloat. We do hope wisdom will continue to prevail to observe
this delicate balance and to refrain from rocking the boat in these
perilous times.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
