Today, Azerbaijan
Aug. 25, 2006
Mark Katz: "Either the Karabakh conflict will be resolved, or it will
get worse for both side"
25 August 2006 [17:00] – Today.Az
"The Azeri-Armenian dispute will not go on as it has. Either it will
be resolved, or it will get worse for both side.
"It seems to me, though, that the two parties cannot come to an
agreement because each sees itself as being on the defensive,
and that compromise with the other could spell disaster," Mark
N. Katz, Professor of Government and Politics Department of Public
and International Affairs Department of George Mason University,
told APA in an exclusive interview.
He thinks that international organizations have been ineffective in
finding a peaceful solution because they can only succeed at this if
both sides want one.
"Their real aim, it seems to me, is not to find a peaceful solution
but to help prevent a renewed outbreak of fighting," he said.
He thinks that Russian, who has great influence on Armenian, is not
interested in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.
"Russia does have great influence in Armenia-but only so long as
the Karabakh conflict persists. If the conflict was ever resolved
peacefully and this contributed to the normalization of relations
between Armenia and Turkey, Armenia would have much less need of
Russia. Fearing this, Moscow does not want to see the Karabakh
conflict resolved."
He thinks that Russian support for Azerbaijan is unreal.
"Russia supports Armenia, not Azerbaijan. But Azerbaijan cannot afford
to have relations that are too unfriendly with neighboring Russia. The
U.S. government is more sympathetic toward the Azeri position, but
American domestic politics will not allow Washington to pressure
Armenia to reach a settlement. Thus, neither the U.S. nor Russia
is really pushing for a peace settlement, though neither wants to
see renewed fighting either. Azerbaijan’s balancing between Russia
and the U.S., though, goes beyond the Karabakh issue. The U.S. has
been a much more useful partner than Russia for Azerbaijan on the
oil pipeline issue. Neither the US nor Russia is pushing for a quick
settlement to the conflict, though for different reasons. In my view,
though, both should do so. For if the conflict is not resolved,
fighting could break out again. And while it may be easy to start
such a fight, ending it will probably not be so easy."
He thinks that Azerbaijan’s diplomatic initiative is required for
the settlement.
"Azerbaijan’s newfound wealth, I believe, allows it the opportunity
to launch its own diplomatic initiative for resolving the conflict.
Baku could, for example, offer Armenia aid and investment in exchange
for a withdrawal. I realize that many Azeris might be offended by
this suggestion. But since it is unlikely that Armenia can be forced
to withdraw, it will have to be induced. And Azerbaijan may have the
means to do so," he insists.
He also said that Armenia’s "victory" over Azerbaijan has indeed cost
it heavily in terms of international isolation and lack of development.
"And as long as a peace settlement is not reached, it will continue
to pay these costs-and perhaps even greater ones. What stops
Armenia from pulling its troops back is that Armenians have bitter
memories about Turks. Unfortunately, Armenians equate the Turks and
the Azeris. Armenians feel strongly that it would be a confession
of wrongdoing to withdraw from Azeri territory, which would be an
acknowledgement that their occupation of it was wrong. What this
means, unfortunately, is that the resolution of the Azeri-Armenian
dispute is inextricably intertwined with the troubled Turkish-Armenian
relationship."
"Russia does not really want to see the conflict resolved for fear
of losing what influence it has in the South Caucasus. Nor does
Iran want to see the conflict resolved for fear that a peaceful,
prosperous Azerbaijan will motivate them to secede. Turkey could
help Azerbaijan considerably by increasing its efforts to normalize
relations with Armenia. This would also be in Turkey’s interest,
since it would improve its prospects for joining the EU."
His view is that Armenia has paid, and continues to pay, very heavy
costs for its "victory" over Azerbaijan. It is willing to pay these
costs, though, because it fears that withdrawal from Azeri territory
will be the first step toward the destruction of Armenia. What is
needed, then, is a peace accord that encourages Armenia that it will
be able to live in peace with its neighbors- the Azeris and the Turks.
He thinks a peace agreement should entail:
Karabakh: Armenian forces withdraw and replaced by a UN force like
in Kosovo.
Small Corridor between Armenia and Karabakh: Armenian withdrawal and
replacement by UN force that permits access both between Armenia and
Karabakh, and between Azeri territories separated by the corridor.
Other Azeri occupied territory: Armenian withdrawal and return to
Azerbaijan.
UN-administered Property Settlement Commission: Azeris and Armenians
who lost property in earlier Azeri-Armenian conflict must either
receive it back or be adequately compensated for it.
He also said that the conflict will not last long at this rate.
"I strongly believe that the Azeri-Armenian dispute will not go
on as it has. Either it will be resolved, or it will get worse for
both sides."
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