Israel plans for war with Iran and Syria
Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel Aviv, and Sarah Baxter, New York
The Sunday Times/UK
September 03, 2006
THREATENED by a potentially nuclear-armed Tehran, Israel is preparing
for a possible war with both Iran and Syria, according to Israeli
political and military sources.
The conflict with Hezbollah has led to a strategic rethink in
Israel. A key conclusion is that too much attention has been paid to
Palestinian militants in Gaza and the West Bank instead of the two
biggest state sponsors of terrorism in the region, who pose a far
greater danger to Israel’s existence, defence insiders say.
`The challenge from Iran and Syria is now top of the Israeli defence
agenda, higher than the Palestinian one,’ said an Israeli defence
source. Shortly before the war in Lebanon Major-General Eliezer
Shkedi, the commander of the air force, was placed in charge of the
`Iranian front’, a new position in the Israeli Defence Forces. His job
will be to command any future strikes on Iran and Syria.
The Israeli defence establishment believes that Iran’s pursuit of a
nuclear programme means war is likely to become unavoidable.
`In the past we prepared for a possible military strike against Iran’s
nuclear facilities,’ said one insider, `but Iran’s growing confidence
after the war in Lebanon means we have to prepare for a full-scale
war, in which Syria will be an important player.’
A new infantry brigade has been formed named Kfir (lion cub), which
will be the largest in the Israeli army. `It is a partial solution for
the challenge of the Syrian commando brigades, which are considered
better than Hezbollah’s,’ a military source said.
There has been grave concern in Israel over a military pact signed in
Tehran on June 15 between Iran and Syria, which the Iranian defence
minister described as a `mutual front against Israeli threats’. Israel
has not had to fight against more than one army since 1973.
During the war in Lebanon, Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, the Iranian
founder of Hezbollah, warned: `If the Americans attack Iran, Iran will
attack Tel Aviv with missiles.’
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies in
London, both Iran and Syria have ballistic missiles that can cover
most of Israel, including Tel Aviv. An emergency budget has now been
assigned to building modern shelters.
`The ineptness of the Israeli Defence Forces against Hezbollah has
raised the Iranians’ confidence,’ said a leading defence analyst.
In Washington, the military hawks believe that an airstrike against
Iranian nuclear bunkers remains a more straightforward, if risky,
operation than chasing Hezbollah fighters and their mobile rocket
launchers in Lebanon.
`Fixed targets are hopelessly vulnerable to precision bombing, and
with stealth bombers even a robust air defence system doesn’t make
much difference,’ said Richard Perle, a leading neoconservative.
The option of an eventual attack remains on the table after President
George Bush warned on Friday that Iran must not be allowed to develop
nuclear weapons.
While the American State Department favours engaging with President
Bashar Assad of Syria in the hope of detaching him from the Iranian
alliance, hawks believe Israel missed a golden opportunity to strike
at Syria during the Hezbollah conflict.
`If they had acted against Syria during this last kerfuffle, the war
might have ended more quickly and better,’ Perle added. `Syrian
military installations are sitting ducks and the Syrian air force
could have been destroyed on the ground in a couple of days.’ Assad
set off alarm bells in Israel when he said during the war in Lebanon:
`If we do not obtain the occupied Golan Heights by peaceful means, the
resistance option is there.’
During the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the Syrian army briefly captured the
Israeli strategic post on top of Mount Hermon on the Golan Heights.
Some Israeli analysts believe Syria will try again to take this post,
which overlooks the Syrian capital, Damascus.
As a result of the change in the defence priorities, the budget for
the Israeli forces in the West Bank and Gaza is to be reduced.
The Israelis are integrating three elite brigades that performed well
during the Lebanon war under one headquarters, so they can work
together on deep cross-border operations in Iran and Syria.
Advocates of political engagement believe a war with Syria could
unleash Islamic fundamentalist terror in what has hitherto been a
stable dictatorship. Some voices in the Pentagon are not impressed by
that argument.
`If Syria spirals into chaos, at least they’ll be taking on each other
rather than heading for Jerusalem,’ said one insider.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
