IMF: ARMENIAN SHADOW ECONOMY EQUALS TO 1/3 OF REAL ECONOMY, "BUT IT IS NOT MUCH"
REGNUM
September 15, 2006
The International Monetary Fund Mission has concluded that th eIMF
program in Armenia continues to be implemented in accordance with
the planned schedule by the instrumentality of strategic program on
poverty elimination; on September 13, IMF Middle East and Central
Asia Department Armenian Office Head Hassan Al-Atrash stated during a
news conference. According to him, after the conclusion is submitted
in December, $4.9mln will be sent to Armenia.
It is worth stressing; the IMF will grant Armenia 23mln of SDR (about
$32.8mln) within three years in the framework of its strategic program
on poverty elimination. The credit will be granted with 0.5% interest
rate and 10-year long time to run.
As a REGNUM correspondent informs, Hassan Al-Atrash stressed that,
according to the IMF, the Armenian government was on the right way;
the budget deficit of the country would total 2.3%; the inflation
rate would amount to 5% (inflation index is recorded at the rate of
3% in 2006 budget – REGNUM). The IMF representative pointed out the
mission recorded that growth of Armenian GDP totaled 11.6% during
the first seven months of the current year; the fact was caused by
high growth rate in construction and services spheres.
During the period, vast financial flows led to strengthening exchange
rate of the Armenian national currency to US dollar by 15%.
Taking into account the fact that Armenia needs to decrease
poverty index through socially directed programs and projects of
infrastructural development, the IMF Mission agreed with the government
that budget deficit should be decreased by increasing tax incomes.
The mission supports approach of tax incomes’ increasing through
improving tax administrating.
Meanwhile, the IMF representative does not agree with theses that
Armenian has high index of shadow economy.
According to him, collecting taxes concerning GDP increased by 0.4%
in 2005; analogous growth will be in 2006 too. At the same time,
Hassan Al-Atrash stressed that Armenia’s shadow economy totals 1/3
of real economy. "It is not a very high index for such countries like
Armenia. There are countries in the region, where the shadow economy
index is much higher," the IMF representative assured.
It is worth stressing that the IMF Mission was staying from August
31 until 13 September in Armenia. Its visit is aimed at discussing
process of fulfillment of items of the program on economic growth
and elimination of poverty in Armenia’s agreement.