FROZEN CONFLICTS HEAT UP AS RUSSIA, WEST FACE OFF
By Christian Lowe
Reuters AlertNet, UK
18 Sep 2006 12:46:56 GMT
MOSCOW, Sept 18 (Reuters) – The "frozen conflicts" of the former
Soviet Union are the front-line in Russia’s battle against creeping
Western influence in its backyard.
The scene of bitter fighting when the Soviet Union collapsed, these
conflicts settled down into an uneasy peace. But the fragile balance
could be upset as the West and its local allies grow more assertive,
alarming the Kremlin.
"Push is coming to shove right now," said Andrew Kuchins, Director
of the Carnegie Endowment’s Russian and Eurasian Programe.
"The Russians do not want the U.S. and the West meddling in the
post-Soviet space … but they do not want things to come down to
a military conflict where the situation could really spin out of
control."
The term "frozen conflicts" covers separatist disputes in ex-Soviet
Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Moldova’s breakaway Dnestr region, and Georgia’s separatist entities
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have a common factor: Russia supports
the separatists while the West backs the countries they are trying
to secede from.
A referendum on Sunday in which voters in Dnestr endorsed their
self-styled independence highlighted the fault lines. Western
institutions ignored it.
Moscow gave its tacit endorsement by sending vote observers.
But diplomats say the most immediate worry is South Ossetia. Georgian
troops — many of them equipped and trained by the United States —
have been fighting skirmishes with separatist forces — some of whom
hold Russian passports.
CLIENT STATELETS
Russia is unlikely to risk an international outcry by recognising
the independence of the ex-Soviet statelets, say analysts.
Instead, Moscow’s support for Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Dnestr
gives it a pressure point to use on Georgia and Moldova, said Simon
Saradzhyan, of the Moscow-based Centre for Eurasian Security Studies.
"Russia would benefit from keeping the status quo in all the frozen
conflicts as it gives Russia leverage over all sides," he said.
Pursuing this "divide-and-rule" policy, the Kremlin has made the
breakaway regions, in effect, Russian protectorates. Russia has what
it calls peacekeeping forces in all three. Thousands of people in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia hold Russian passports.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said this month that Dnestr, South
Ossetia and Abkhazia are no different from Kosovo, which the West is
backing to gain independence from Serbia.
The link with Kosovo is probably posturing, but it signals to the
West that Putin is prepared to stand up for the ex-Soviet separatists,
say analysts.
WESTERN ENCROACHMENT
Azerbaijan’s "frozen conflict" with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh
is a different case because there is no clear rivalry between Russia
and the West.
But in Moldova and Georgia, the Kremlin sees the West encroaching
ever closer.
The European Union is taking on a bigger role because if, as expected,
Bulgaria and Romania join the bloc, Moldova will become the EU’s
neighbour and Georgia its near-neighbour across the Black Sea.
Also, Georgia and Moldova have in the past five years pulled sharply
out of Moscow’s orbit and speeded up efforts to join NATO and the EU.
Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili has launched an aggressive —
though, he says, peaceful — drive to restore central rule over South
Ossetia and Abkhazia.
To the Kremlin, it looks as if the West is endorsing that
drive. U.S. Army Green Berets have trained units of Georgia’s
army. Many of the Georgian soldiers skirmishing around South Ossetia
are kitted out in NATO-style camouflage fatigues.
Georgia this year opened a NATO-standard military base at Senaki,
near Abkhazia. A second is planned near Gori, a short drive from
South Ossetia.
"I think (the Kremlin is) really concerned …
Saakashvili may make a pre-emptive strike in South Ossetia, that
things could erupt there," said the Carnegie Endowment’s Kuchins.