Hayots Ashkar, Yerevan,
27 Oct 06, p 3
ARMENIAN NEWSPAPER SEES IRAN AS TRANSPORT ALTERNATIVE TO GEORGIA
Iran may be a solution to Armenia’s transport problems arising from
Russia’s blockade of Georgia, an Armenian newspaper has said. The
early commissioning of an Iran-Armenia gas pipeline has given Armenia
hope for more transport and energy options via Iran. Closer
cooperation with Iran would make Armenia’s positions stronger both in
talks on a Karabakh settlement and in relations with Georgia amid
Russian pressure on Yerevan to take a tougher stance. The following
is the text of an article by Sark’s Gevorkyan entitled "We need an
alternative and Iran maybe that alternative" and published in the
Armenian newspaper Ayots Ashkar on 27 October:
Two events that have occurred recently, such as the recognition of
Iran’s right to uranium enrichment by the director-general of
International Atomic Energy Agency, Muhammad al-Baradi’i, and the
publication of the programme on armed forces withdrawal from Iraq,
indicate that the world community recognizes the fact that our
neighbour Iran may turn its force into an independent factor, and is
ready to take this reality into account. In such conditions, Armenia,
which has found itself in a difficult geopolitical situation because
of events around Georgia, may take the edge off the need to make a
choice between the northern and western directions of its policy by
giving a new quality to Armenian-Iranian strategic cooperation.
Putting an Iran-Armenia gas pipeline into operation a month earlier
than expected and the prospects for an Iran-Armenia-Georgia energy
corridor is additional proof of that.
It is not hard to notice that, as Armenia gains a serious energy
alternative, it should not be in a hurry to sell the Iran-Armenia gas
pipeline to a third party or transfer it into trust management.
Moreover, Armenia may also consider the construction of a second gas
pipeline towards Europe, which may seriously strengthen its positions
in terms of energy exports.
Let us try to understand what Armenia can gain from the further
deepening of cooperation with Iran in the context of new developments
in efforts to settle South Caucasus conflicts?
Those developments obviously suggest that each of the "projects"
being offered to Armenia – the western and the northern ones –
contains such possible dangers that this country is in fact facing
the problem of choosing the lesser of the two evils. Thus, until the
geopolitical status of Georgia is clarified and the process of
Karabakh talks reaches its climax, Armenia is simply deprived of an
opportunity to make "sharp movements". But even after that the
obstacles between Russia and Georgia may increase the role of
southward communications via Azerbaijan for Russia. For Armenia this
is a deadlock in both cases at the Russian-Georgian and
Armenian-Azerbaijani borders. For this reason, the transfer of the
Russian southern transport corridor from Georgia to Azerbaijan augurs
badly for this country. But Armenia is also deprived of an
opportunity of making a choice between Georgia, which is turning into
a possible NATO base, and Russia. It turns out that Armenian-Russian
high-level talks, which are due to be held in Moscow, may discuss the
following options: either Armenia changes its policy towards Georgia
or Russia will have to consider using the Azerbaijan-Iran
communications system. We think that in such conditions Armenia needs
support from a third party, which also worries about the prospect of
foreign forces deploying not far from its borders. Moreover,
Armenia’s rapprochement with Iran would not damage Moscow’s efforts
to find a "black cat" in Armenian-Georgian relations as well as to
keep the Karabakh conflict settlement process in a deadlock. It is
obvious that by means of Armenian-Iranian cooperation we may balance
out the two mutually exclusive extremes we are facing in
Russian-Georgian relations and we may be able to talk to Georgia from
the positions of a country that has a specific transport alternative.
A further rapprochement with Iran will also allow Armenia feel more
confident in the context of the an accelerating Karabakh negotiation
process. The involvement of a third force will allow us to
counterbalance processes which may be at variance with our national
interests. The reason is evident as the Araz valley is also a
security zone for Iran, which would view any control of it by
international forces as a serious threat.
Thus, in the context of geopolitical processes taking place in our
region and the consequent isolation of Armenia, this country may
start consultations with Iran on all aspects of energy, communication
and military-technical cooperation and take it to a new quality
level.