CBS News, USA
Nov 3 2006
Will Turkey And EU Divorce Before Wedding?
After Years Of Waiting To Get In, Signs Indicate Turkey May Not Join
EU After All
(AP) The cautious courtship between Turkey and the European Union
looks increasingly like it might be headed for a messy and
acrimonious breakup.
They were a mismatched couple from the beginning: one wealthy, mostly
Christian and liberal, the other far poorer, overwhelmingly Muslim
and largely conservative. Perhaps it’s no surprise that over time the
mood has deteriorated from buoyant optimism to mutual recriminations
and a seemingly hopeless inability to communicate.
The mood is likely to get noticeably worse after next Wednesday, when
the EU releases a progress report that sizes up Turkey. The
Associated Press saw a draft Friday that said Turkey is dragging its
feet on reform and failing to meet minimum human rights standards.
The consequences of further worsening of relations between Turkey and
the EU could be dramatic and far-reaching: At stake is an ambitious
vision of bringing a Muslim nation into the fold of liberal European
society, proving that a "clash of civilizations" between the West and
Islam is not inevitable.
Many analysts say that’s why the two parties are likely to continue
talking for the foreseeable future, never committing to a clean split
which would deliver the message to Muslims everywhere that the West
is not prepared to deal with them on equal footing.
"Of course I support the EU (bid)," said Bayram Kapici, a 38-year-old
security guard. "But the question is, what will our place in the EU
be? I mean, we’re Muslims. Are we barbarians? How will they see us?"
For the moment, enthusiasm toward Turkey’s bid has cooled
dramatically on both sides, and Turkish leaders’ passionate claims
that an "alliance of civilizations" can replace the much-feared
"clash" are starting to ring hollow.
Turkish public support for membership in the EU has fallen below 50
percent, and many believe that perceived insults from the European
Union – in the form of frequent criticism and seemingly endless
demands for reform – play directly into the hands of nationalists and
Islamists waiting to tap into a broken and defensive Turkish psyche.
Europeans, meanwhile, have a litany of complaints about Turkey: Its
refusal to look objectively at the past, notably the massacre of
Armenians after World War I that many historians call a genocide; its
intransigence on key diplomatic issues like recognizing the
Greek-speaking part of Cyprus, which has been a full EU member since
2004; its poor record on human rights and treatment of its Kurdish
minority; its intolerance to free speech that runs to the extent that
"insulting Turkishness" is a crime; its outsized admiration for its
military; its unwillingness to abandon some elements of its Islamic
culture, such as hardline attitudes toward adultery and
homosexuality.
Many here fault Turkey’s old rivals Greece and Cyprus for the growing
acrimony, claiming they are lobbying the EU to take a hard line over
Turkey’s refusal to extend its customs union with the EU to the Greek
Cypriot part of Cyprus. Turkey does not recognize the Cyprus
government and props up the internationally unrecognized
administration in the north of the island.
On Thursday, a meeting that was supposed to be a last-ditch effort to
settle the Cyprus problem was canceled, leaving the Turks with very
little time to negotiate before the EU’s year-end deadline to concede
or see talks suspended.
What would happen if the talks collapsed?
First, the symbolic value of having a 99 percent Muslim, democratic
nation firmly integrated into the West would be lost. Turkey’s 71
million citizens, educated to look to Europe for inspiration since
the country’s secular transformation in the 1920s, might look
elsewhere for positive reinforcement.
"Nationalists are benefiting from this, there’s no question about
it," said pollster and political science professor Hakan Yilmaz.
Islamic countries of the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa,
with which Turkey’s Islamic-rooted government has been forging
increasingly close ties, might be natural surrogates for a Turkey
spurned.
But there is a sense on the street that a complete breakup with the
EU is out of the question.
Yilmaz said many EU leaders were just playing to the crowd by
publicly belittling Turkey. "Some in the European Union public love
this humiliation – particularly in France," he said, alluding to a
proposed French law that would make it a crime to say Turks did not
commit genocide against Armenians.
Meanwhile, some leading politicians on both sides are trying to make
the relationship so miserable that Turkey will just walk away on its
own, said Ilter Turan, a political analyst at Istanbul Bilgi
University.
But Turan added that any Turkish government that walked away from the
EU would be excoriated by the Turkish public, despite the current
anti-EU mood.
The key question appears to be how to persuade Turkey to change
without damaging national pride.
"There is one thing where the Turkish public seems to be rather
adamant," Turan said, getting to the heart of what Turks want in this
relationship. "If there is to be a union, it is to be on equal
grounds."
Kapici, the security guard, said he didn’t think the EU would ever
take Turkey, but at least it was good for his country to try.
"I’m a Muslim, praise God," he said. "But I don’t want to be part of
an Arab Union or something. It’s always better for Turkey to be on
the side of Europe."