STRENGTHENING THE "EASTERN VECTOR": ANKARA HOSTS TURKIC SUMMIT
By Igor Torbakov
Friday, November 17, 2006
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Nov 17 2006
Leaders of Turkic nations are meeting today, November 17, in
Turkey’s Mediterranean resort city of Antalya. This first summit of
Turkish-speaking peoples in five years appears to reflect Ankara’s
ongoing rethinking about its international identity. Increasingly
frustrated with the mounting hurdles on the path of its European
integration, Turkey seems to be turning its strategic gaze to the
east – the Caspian Basin and Central Asia – which is home to the
energy-rich Turkic republics of the former Soviet Union.
The presidents of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and
high-level representatives from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will be
attending the Antalya gathering. It was unclear whether the Russian
republics of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan will be represented.
The November 17-18 event is the eighth meeting of Turkic leaders since
the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. The last such summit, however,
took place in Istanbul in 2001. The gatherings of the leaders of Turkic
countries are the brainchild of the late Turkish President Turgut Ozal,
who organized the first such meeting in 1992 in Ankara. The current
summit convened after intense lobbying by the Turkish government
following the September convention of the Turkish-speaking peoples
(see EDM, September 22).
A statement posted on Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s website says
the summit participants will sign a joint document called the Antalya
Declaration. There was no official word ahead of the gathering on
the nature of the document. Some analysts predict that the Turkish
government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will continue
its efforts to forge a Turkic Commonwealth that could significantly
enhance the Turkey-led Eurasian bloc on the world stage.
It is hard not to notice that Ankara’s Turkic initiative coincides
with Turkish opinion polls showing diminishing popular support for
European Union membership. According to a recent poll by the Pew
Research Center, Turkish support for the EU has fallen to 35%, down
from almost 80% three years ago.
Two important developments further underscore the Turks’
disillusionment with the West and their growing irritation at the
perceived snub by the Europeans.
First, five former Turkish foreign ministers, including several
staunchly pro-EU ones, have recently aired a common view on the
country’s NTV news channel, arguing that it could be best if Ankara
unilaterally suspends membership talks with the bloc to allow for
a cooling-off period in what is becoming an increasingly tense and
acrimonious relationship. "There can be no better indication of the
growing frustration with the EU and no better explanation for the
dramatic decline in support for [Turkey’s] membership in the Union,"
one Turkish commentator noted.
Second, Turkey has just suspended military relations with France in a
dispute over the controversial issue of the mass killings of Armenians
during the twilight of the Ottoman era. The move was the latest
backlash against French legislation that, if approved by the French
Senate and president, would criminalize any denial that the World War
I-era killings of Armenians in Turkey qualified as genocide. France
and Turkey, both NATO members, have had close military ties, and
Turkey has been an eager buyer of French-made military hardware. But
on November 15, Turkey’s land forces commander, General Ilker Basbug,
told reporters in Ankara that "relations with France in the military
field have been suspended."
As Ankara’s relations with the EU become ever more problematic, a
growing number of Turkish pundits argue that Turkey needs to expand
its strategic thinking and get rid of the "unhealthy fixation"
on Europe. The contemporary world is not unipolar or centralized,
they say, adding that a group of Eurasian countries including Turkey,
China, India, as well as some Central Asian states has a "much more
viable future in the developmental terms used by economists than do
many countries in the EU today."
The urgent task, then, according to some Turkish strategists, is to
explore the possibilities for regional integration and cooperation
among the Eurasian countries. "The need for cooperation among us and
other regional powers is obvious," asserts Ali Kulebi, the head of
Turkey’s National Security Strategies Research Center, in a recent
policy paper.
But other analysts remain skeptical about Ankara’s eventual success
with Eurasian integration, including its efforts at building a bloc
based on a kinship with Central Asia’s Turkic peoples. There are two
main reasons for such skepticism. First, the Central Asian states
will likely be wary of Ankara’s intention to play the role of "big
brother" in the prospective commonwealth. Second, these countries
have not been terribly successful so far in resolving some crucial
regional problems – such as the delimitation of the Caspian Sea or
competition over water resources.
(Anadolu, Akipress, November 16; AP, November 15; Turkish Daily News,
November 16, 14, October 22)