MARK N. KATZ: "ISOLATED ARMENIA TO REALIZE THAT IT WOULD BE BETTER OFF COMING TO TERMS WITH AZERBAIJAN VOLUNTARILY"
Today, Azerbaijan
Dec 19 2006
"I think that the main cause of Russian-Georgian tension is that Russia
cannot tolerate the idea of Georgia pursuing and independent foreign
policy (especially in alliance with the West), and that Russia sees the
world in zero-sum terms [i.e. if the West gains influence in Georgia,
then Russia must necessarily lose it]," said Mark N. Katz, Professor
of Government and Politics Department of Public and International
Affairs Department of George Mason University.
He told APA that the West has not somehow taken Georgia away from
Russia; Russia’s hostile policy toward Georgia has driven it toward
the West.
"If Russia really wanted Georgia to be friendly toward Moscow,
it would stop the games that it is playing in Abkhazia and South
Ossetia. These two territories are of great importance to Georgia,
but can only be of minor importance to Russia. Truly great powers
know that they can often gain influence by backing off," he underlines.
As to the energy gamy being played by Russia in the ‘international
pitch,’ Mark Katz believes that Russia can take advantage of its
influence on energy security.
"In the short run, Russia may be able to benefit from its dominance,
but in the long run it will not. For in the long run, Europe can
reorient its gas imports to liquefied natural gas, which it can obtain
from Qatar, Nigeria, and other sources. Further, it is not clear
how long the Russian gas reserves will last, especially when Russia
refuses to alter its corrupt and hostile investment environment to
attract the foreign capital and technology it desperately needs to
maintain its gas exports," professor underlines.
Commenting on Turkey’s accession to the European Union, Professor
Mark Katz believes that the so-called issues like Cyprus and Armenian
genocide raised against Turkey are nothing but pretexts.
"I think there are many obstacles to Turkey’s joining the EU. Its
being Muslim is, I would hope, not that large an obstacle. The EU does
not want Ukraine or Russia either, and they are not Muslim. All three,
though, have large, relatively poor populations that would be difficult
to absorb. The EU doesn’t want to say this, so it raises these other
issues (Cyprus, Armenian genocide) in the hope that Turkey will react
negatively which it has. I don’t think Turkey will be admitted to
the EU any time soon," he insists.
Touching on the growth of Azerbaijan’s military budget by exceeding
Armenian total national budget, Professor believes that Azerbaijan
would be better off inducing Armenia by its economic growth and
prosperity.
"I understand how tempting it must be for Azerbaijan to use its
energy wealth to build up its armed forces in order to take back
Nagorno Karabakh. I personally think, though, that Azerbaijan would
be better off using its wealth to develop its economy and support the
refugee population. Azerbaijan’s peaceful economic development is,
I believe, the most effective way of eventually inducing an isolated
Armenia to realize that it would be better off coming to terms with
Azerbaijan voluntarily," he underscores.
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