Turkish Daily News , Turkey
Jan 7 2007
An early look at US presidential hopefuls
Sunday, January 7, 2007
Gore (if he runs) and McCain appear to be best picks for Turkey
ÜMİT ENGİNSOY
WASHINGTON – Turkish Daily News
In the run-up to the U.S. presidential election in 2000, many
analysts here viewed Republican President George W. Bush as a better
choice than Democrat Al Gore from a standpoint of potentially
stronger U.S.-Turkish relations, given the Republican Party’s
traditional security-minded approach, valuing Ankara’s strategic
position. Then Bush’s arguably flawed move to invade Iraq changed the
whole Middle East and indeed the world, straining ties with Turkey.
In hindsight a Gore presidency might have made the world a different
and probably better place, most of the same analysts now argue.
So it is a risky business to try to predict who may win the next
U.S. presidential election and who might be a better choice for
Turkey, almost 22 months before the polls. But it may still be useful
to have an early look at the presidential hopefuls for the 2008
election and their present views on Turkey-related matters. In
addition this analyst will also take the risk of proposing the best
picks from Turkey’s perspective.
On the Democratic side, former Senator John Edwards, vice
presidential candidate in the party’s failed 2004 bid and Delaware
Senator Joe Biden, who will become chairman of the Senate’s powerful
Foreign Relations Committee in the new Congress, are the only
prominent politicians who have declared their candidacy.
But the real frontrunners are Hillary Rodham Clinton, a New York
senator and wife of former President Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama,
a black senator from Illinois and the latest rising star in U.S.
politics, neither of whom have officially announced their positions
yet but are both seen as certain candidates.
Gore is a complete unknown at this point, but if he runs, he is
believed to have a chance to win the Democratic ticket. It is unclear
whether Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, who lost to Bush in 2004,
will seek another chance.
On the Republican flank, no leading figures have officially
announced their candidacy, but the early frontrunners already include
Arizona Senator John McCain, Rudy Giuliani — New York’s popular
former mayor — and Mitt Romney, Massachusetts’ outgoing governor.
Newt Gingrich, a former speaker of the House of Representatives and
a darling for the party’s conservative wing, may also run.
Among Democratic hopefuls all key figures, with the exception of
Gore, view the Armenian killings in the Ottoman Empire in World War I
as genocide and back the Armenian cause. Gore, as a senator earlier
in his political life also supported genocide claims against the
Turks, but as vice president in Bill Clinton’s administration he
staunchly stood with Washington’s official policy not to alienate
Turkey. Among the Republicans, Giuliani has been courting the
Armenians.
Hillary Rodham Clinton, 59:
She has emerged as the top presidential contender in the Democratic
Party over the past year, raising major funds for her successful
Senate re-election bid in November. During her first six years in the
Senate she has sought to build an image as a security-minded and
centrist Democrat to attract conservative voters.
But in the Republican south she is still seen as an incurable
liberal — a term that is used pejoratively in U.S. politics, not as
it is in Europe. Clinton originally backed the Iraq war but has
recently increasingly accused Bush’s administration of incompetence.
Her main disadvantage is her gender, as it is unclear whether America
has reached a sufficient level of maturity to elect a female
president, according to analysts. Although she is loved by most
Democrats, her Republican adversaries like describing her as an
irreconcilable and confrontational person, qualities not admired by
the vast majority of Americans.
Barack Obama, 45:
The only black member of the Senate. Son of a Kenyan father and a
white American mother, he was born in Hawaii and raised in Indonesia
after his parents’ divorce. The youngest of all presidential hopefuls
and a relative latecomer to national politics, he was elected senator
in 2004. Over the past six months he has emerged as a strong centrist
and responsible politician, a voice of common sense. He backs a
phased withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq but has been careful
enough not to be identified with the left. Despite his frontrunner
position in his party, like in Hillary Rodham Clinton’s case, it is
not clear if the American people are ready to elect a black
president.
John Edwards, 53:
He may benefit from Clinton’s and Obama’s disadvantages. When he
was John Kerry’s sidekick in the 2004 elections, many Democrats liked
him more than Kerry. Basing his rhetoric on populist themes, Edwards
is the labor movement’s favorite. His southernness as a former North
Carolina senator is an advantage. In a strong, multi-candidate
competition in the party, he may come up as a surprise winner. He
wants U.S. troops back from Iraq.
Al Gore, 58:
He has emerged as a major intellectual figure after his failed
presidential bid in 2000. Since the very beginning, he has
consistently and unwaveringly condemned the plans for war in Iraq and
later the invasion and aftermath. Gore is a top advocate for
environmental protection, campaigning for measures against global
warning. Liked very much by the left and environmentally conscious
groups, one of his main disadvantages is his `unknown commitment to
politics.’ In other words, it is not clear if he will care to run for
president. Further more, conservatives hate Gore, making it hard for
him to win bipartisan support. Still, Bush’s continued war blunders
and a reacting American society’s possible move to the left may
eventually hand him the presidency, providing he bothers to run.
Republican adversaries question Gore’s `emotional stability’ in
efforts to discredit him.
Joe Biden, 64:
He plans to corner Bush in Iraq hearings at his Senate Foreign
Relations Committee later this month. So far he does not have a
remarkable backing, but Bush-bashing may help him. He is a staunch
supporter of the U.S. forces’ withdrawal from Iraq and Iraq’s
division into three very loose statelets; Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds.
His voting record during his long years at the Senate has been
consistently anti-Turkey, and according to insiders he is known for
his personal dislike of the country. A Biden victory is a remote
possibility.
John Kerry, 63:
Continued with his political blunders after his ineffective
presidential bid in 2004 and is another long shot like Biden, if he
decides to run again. Representing mostly northeastern Democrats, he
wants an urgent exit from Iraq.
John McCain, 70:
The oldest politician among all presidential hopefuls. A staunch
and consistent supporter of the Iraq war from the beginning, McCain
says the United States has a strategic and moral responsibility to
stay in Iraq until an acceptable level of stability has been reached,
although it is not clear if this mission is feasible. He is strongly
against Iraq’s disintegration. McCain also is a hawk on Iran, open to
the possibility of air strikes. He famously has said that `the only
option worse than military action [against Iran] is a nuclear armed
Iran.’ But insiders say that McCain also can be a realist, meaning he
is able to admit his mistakes if facts persuade him. Although a
conservative, he does not represent a specific faction in the
Republican Party. His independent-mindedness has caused him to be
seen as a maverick. McCain also respects Turkey and has a fondness
for it despite the Iraq dispute, according to people who personally
know him. His largest weakness is his age.
Rudy Giuliani, 62:
One of America’s most popular politicians, admired for his work as
mayor of New York and his `brave’ image in the wake of the Sept. 11
terrorist attacks. He managed to combine his heavy-handed tactics in
fighting crime in New York with a moderate and reconcilable public
face. Early polls show Giuliani as the likeliest holder of the
Republican presidential ticket, thanks to a public belief in his
managerial skills. But as a liberal politician in Republican
standards, supporting abortion rights for example, he does not
represent the party’s traditional conservative grassroots. But
changing political attitudes after Bush’s eight years of
controversial presidency likely will benefit him. His views on Iraq
and related issues are unknown.
Mitt Romney, 59:
Beginning to work on his presidential campaign after he formally
quit as governor of Massachusetts on Thursday. Managing to win the
governorship election in 2002 in this northeastern state of a heavily
Democratic tradition, Romney has shown that he can win bipartisan
support. Originally a centrist, he has been courting the
conservatives in recent months in expectation of his presidential
run. But his largest disadvantage is his religious sect: As a Mormon
he will face hardships in winning the conservatives’ backing. His
position on Iraq is not known publicly.
Newt Gingrich, 63:
Became a legendary figure for conservatives when he engineered the
House of Representatives’ 1994 takeover by the Republican Party. He
has extremely hawkish views on Iraq and Iran and believes that World
War III is already a reality. Gingrich is known for his special
respect for Mustafa Kemal Atatürk,the founder of modern Turkey. He
is unlikely to win bipartisan backing and at this point is considered
a long shot.
Among all these figures, this analyst’s personal picks are Gore and
McCain. Although the two men have mostly opposite views of the world,
what unites them is their intellect, a feeling of responsibility (if
in office in Gore’s case), a higher degree of integrity and a
reasonably favorable view of Turkey than other potential candidates.
But they are not the likeliest winners in their respective parties.
In the Democratic Party, analysts view Clinton, Obama and Edwards as
early frontrunners, while in the Republican Party Giuliani seems to
be the leading figure. How the Iraq war develops will have a key
impact on the presidential race, and a much clearer vision may appear
only in late 2007.