Turkey/Israel pipeline could shift Middle East power balance
22 March 2007 [23:40] – Today.Az
Although regional pipelines rarely are recognized as progenitors of
global power balance, the prospective agreement between Turkey and
Israel to construct such a strategic connection may accomplish a
seismic economic shift.
Since Russia, the world’s leading oil producer and global runner up
energy exporter to Saudi Arabia, is asserting its energy muscle, this
circumvention of Russia’s monopoly also carries geopolitical
overtones.
With Russia in the process of exerting an energy stranglehold over
much of the trans-Caucasian and Eastern European areas, a new pipeline
could become a counterweight to Moscow’s increasing expansionism.
This pipeline now is being considered for extension from oil center
Azerbaijan’s Baku on the Caspian Sea through Georgia to Turkey’s
Mediterranean seaport of Ceyhan, all of which avoid impinging on any
Russian territory.
Although oil and natural gas flowing through these pipelines
originally was targeted for large tankers headed for Europe and
elsewhere, such shiploads coming out of the Black Sea and through the
Turkish Dardanelles already are overloaded.
Such a glut of tanker volume rapidly has become a gigantic bottleneck,
delaying badly needed deliveries for increasingly longer time periods.
Now comes news that Turkey and Israel have reached a memo of
understanding calling for a $4 billion pipeline linking the Turkish
port of Ceyhan and Israel’s Ashkelon seaport, also on the
Mediterranean coast. From there, oil and even badly needed water and
electric power for Israel could be piped to Elath, Israel’s port on
the Gulf of Aqaba leading to the Red Sea.
Continuing on, such varied utilities and others flowing through this
multi-task pipeline could be transshipped to Asian markets.
With a $40 million feasibility study already under way to determine
how best to implement such a titanic project in the shortest time
possible, what is most remarkable is that this giant project
represents a realignment of geopolitical power as well as a
circumvention of Russian hegemony.
Emanating from the oil-rich Caspian Sea, this contemplated
multinational pipeline avoids encroaching on Russian territory,
thereby eliminating any attempted Moscow interference with its free
flow. With energy drawn from the Caspian Seas’s Azerbaijan-controlled
sector, Russia’s influence and interference effectively is withheld.
It also reinforces the long-standing Turkish-Israel military and
economic alliance, which seemed to weaken under the current
pro-Islamist Ankara regime. Although never verbalized, this
Turkish-Israeli joint venture is sure to resolidify the two nations’
political and economic ties.
It also could influence internal Turkish politics, which is split
between pro-Islamist prime minister Erdogan and the secular president
and Army chief of staff.
The successful implementation of the multifaceted pipeline also would
represent a victory for American policy, which favors a strengthening
of the Turkish-Israeli alliance, while breaking the Russian monopoly
over energy suppliers from the Caspian Sea. That source potentially
could generate oil and natural gas volume reducing the overwhelming
dependence of energy from the militarily vulnerable Persian Gulf area.
The successful completion of such a gigantic undertaking also could
add Turkey’s considerable power as a bulwark against the rapid spread
of radical Islam.
By Morris R. Beschloss
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