UNITED STATES: RELATIONS WITH AZERBAIJAN, TURKEY AND THE EUROPEAN UNION
Simone Comi
Equilibri.net , Italy
April 16 2007
Involved in a number of international fronts and areas the United
State’s remain the primary political and economic partner of the
European Union and the Caucasian States – due in part to strong
cooperative relations with Azerbaijan. The possible cooling of
relations between Washington and Ankara could have a negative influence
in the Middle East – an area already under a certain strain due to the
problematic relations with Syria and Iran and the difficult situation
in Iraq.
New energy agreements with Azerbaijan and a cooling in USA-Turkey
relations
The United States and Azerbaijan have signed an agreement of
reciprocal collaboration in the energy sector. The agreement,
developed by the Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and Elmar
Mamedyarov, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, focuses on
collaboration in the context of energy security in the Caspian Sea
region. As its principal objective the Memorandum of Understanding
focuses on the enlargement of production and exportation, for and
towards international markets, of Azerbaijan’s oil and gas reserves and
the construction of a gas pipeline that will cross Turkey and reach
Greece and Italy. The pipeline will connect Europe’s distribution
network with Azerbaijan’s thus guaranteeing Europe greater energy
security and a diversification of natural gas and petrol sources,
a factor significant to reducing Europe’s energy dependancy on Russia.
In the same period that the MoU was being signed diplomatic relations
with Ankara registered a moment of difficulty. This was due to the news
that the House of Representatives were intent upon approving a motion
that would condemn as genocide the massacre of Armenians in Turkey
between 1915 and 1923. To date 15 countries, including Switzerland and
France, have denounced the acts as genocide. The reply to Turkey’s
protests was entrusted to the Secretary of State and the Defense
Secretary: Condoleeza Rice e Robert Gates in a joint statement to
the head of the House of Representative’s Foreign Commission, Thomas
Lantos, declared that the resolution would ruin relations with the
ally and requested that the motion not be voted upon. The Speaker
of the House, Nancy Pelosi, has already announced that the vote will
take place by mid-April, however, should this happen then President
Bush may well intervene in order to block any such action.
Speaking in front of the House Foreign Commission the under-Secretary
of State, Daniel Fried, explained that the repercussions to US-Turkish
relations would be extremely serious. The Turkish Government has
already threatened to close the American air-base at Incirlik – one
of the most important for troop and supply movements towards the
Middle East – and deny overfly permission. The under-Secretary of
State also let it be understood that Turkey could act against Kurds
in the north of Iraqi in a moment in which the American presence is
ever more important in the country.
Opinion polls in Turkey have shown that support for the United States
is at the lowest level ever, Fried underlined the fact that twice in
the past, in 1990 and 2000, the House did not vote on similar motions
in order to preserve American diplomatic relations with Ankara. The
turkish foreign Minister, Abdullah Gul, during a visit to Washington in
January stated that Turkey is reconsidering its past history but that
all foreign condemnation would be counterproductive. For the Armenian
communities around the world postponing or canceling the resolution
would be a momentary defeat, representatives of the most important
American communities have already declared that even if the motion is
withdrawn it would be proposed again after the 2008 elections when, as
expected, the White House will host a representative of the Democrats.
The new economic agreement between Europe and the United States
Relations between the United States and Europe are completely
different: according to the official declarations of Robert Kimmit,
the vice-Secretary of the Treasury, Washington and Brussels seem
ready to up their economic integration to a higher level. This would
be achieved by lowering normative obstacles in order to reach direct
reciprocal investments and the integration of financial markets.
The United States have favorably received the initiative to improve
the transatlantic market proposed by the German Chancellor, Angela
Merkel, and representatives of the US treasury have declared that the
United States and the European Union need to arrive at the economic
summit of 30 April with a series of proposals. The objectives that
the US and European negotiators have posed are clear: reduce as far
as possible US and European norms and promote a harmonious convergence
of the policies that still divide the two markets. The vice-Secretary
of the Treasury underlined that the American priority in the global
commercial arena was the success of the Doha Round, thus lowering
the fears of many analysts that believed that a greater integration
of the world’s two major economic powers would favor a weakening of
the current forces aimed at reducing global barriers.
Both Kimmit and the principal US economic analysts agree that the
forces necessary to furthering economic relations between the United
States and Europe will be of equivalent success to the forces necessary
to obtaining a single european market – one which has less barriers,
better protects intellectual property and promotes greater competition
in transport infrastructure and business services.
As regards the potential of the agreements Daniel Hamilton, Director
of the Center for Transatlantic Relations at the Johns Hopkins
University, underlined how commercial relations between the US and
the EU differentiate from relations with other regions. The barriers
to free-trade between the US and the EU are already quite low and
the real question is removing legislative barriers to the flow of
capital. Hamilton added that a strong ‘transatlantic motor’ could
function to the advantage of the global economy; reaching a high
level of success in relations with the principal economic partners,
such as the EU, could bring the US to being a better client for goods
coming from markets in which the US presence is not so strong.
According to Hamilton during the first half of the current decade
Europe received more than 57% of American direct foreign investment
while representing 75% of foreign capital invested in the United
States. These investments could increase if both parties resolve the
issue of the diverse corporate administration and fiscal duties –
currently major investors lament the fact that the differences are
the source of considerable costs and problems.
Conclusions
The new MoU between the US and Azerbaijan have brought about a greater
closeness between Russia and China, not only politically but also
in terms of economic and technology cooperation. Although there has
been no substantial progress in the Siberian oil pipeline that would
create a link between the two countries, commercial agreements for
a value of 4 billion dollars have been agreed upon. Of particular
importance is the agreement to collaborate in space programs, including
the launch in 2009 of a Chinese satellite that will orbit Mars and
a Moon space-shuttle that will be used to build an orbiting space
station. The collaboration in question is of political significance
above all, even if their interests are diverse both countries are
intent on giving the impression of ever greater strength in order to
counter balance the United States – an influence particularly strong
in europe and one that will become ever stronger in the Caucasian
region. Of crucial importance is the resolution of the diplomatic
crisis between Washington and Ankara: the closure of the American
base in Incirlik and the blockage of fly-over permission would create
enormous obstacles to the US presence in Iraq.
_States__relations_with_Azerbaijan__Turkey_and_the _European_Union