Times Online, UK
May 12 2007
Small Country, Big Test
The hand of history is on Armenia’s shoulder
Armenia is no larger than Scotland, even more mountainous and has
just 2.3 million voters. But how they vote in today’s parliamentary
elections, and how their votes are counted, will have profound
implications for a region at the fulcrum of Eurasia that is still
dangerously unstable 16 years after the Soviet collapse.
Wedged between Turkey, Iran and two other former Soviet satellites,
Armenia is a case study in the obstacles to establishing democracy
amid unhelpful neighbours. The example offered by Tehran to the south
is of extreme Islamism. To the east, Azerbaijan is in the grip of
thinly disguised authoritarianism and contagious corruption. To the
north, Georgia is under siege from Russia because of Tblisi’s
pro-Western Government, and to the west Turkish democracy is well
established – but the border with Armenia is closed because of the
scars of history.
Armenia’s own democratic credentials are not auspicious: both
national elections held since the horrific shooting deaths of eight
ministers, including the Prime Minister, in 1999 have been condemned
as rigged by opposition groups, which have boycotted parliament for
the last four years. The current Prime Minister, Serge Sargsyan, who
is expected to remain in power, insists in an interview with The
Times that today’s poll will meet the highest international
standards. If so, his country can look forward to the release of $235
million in much-needed US aid; to the trade and development benefits
of full membership of the EU’s `near neighbourhood’; and to a
lucrative future on the energy transit route between the Caspian
basin and world markets. If not, the Georgian democratic endeavour
will look lonely indeed.
Like Georgia, Armenia represents a potential point of conflict
between the US and Russia as both seek influence and allies in the
Caucasus. But Mr Sargsyan’s position is uniquely delicate: for all
his country’s political and religious differences with Iran, they
share a stable and important trading relationship that could be
complicated should Washington seek tighter sanctions on Tehran in
view of its refusal to suspend nuclear enrichment. In that event
Armenia may be driven back into Moscow’s embrace for want of any
other important trading partner. Its power distribution system and a
new gas pipeline from Iran are, in fact, already Russian-owned.
The alternative is a normalising of relations with Turkey, nearly a
century after the killing of 1.5 million Armenians in Ottoman Turkey
between 1915 and 1923 – a slaughter that Ankara still refuses to term
`genocide’. Mr Sargsyan has said he is willing to reopen diplomatic
relations with Turkey without preconditions, but such conciliatory
signals have so far gone unreciprocated.
It is rare for a country to admit to genocide. It may still be
politically impossible for Turkey to do so. But Armenia’s overtures
deserve a mature response. A reopened border between Turkey and
Armenia would create a string of neighbourly democracies from the
Bosphorous almost to the Caspian Sea. Armenia’s voters and electoral
officials can bring that vision a step closer.