ARMENIA REMAINS PRO-RUSSIAN AND PRO-GEORGIAN
By M. Alkhazashvili
(Translated by Diana Dundua)
The Messenger, Georgia
May 24 2007
Analysts carefully observed the parliamentary elections held in
Armenia held on May 12. Those who were awaiting a radical upheaval of
the current government were disappointed. The election results proved
that Armenia’s policies would remain Russian-oriented for still time
to come with the Republican Party gaining a solid victory.
However, the parliamentary elections were a sign that changes were
underway within the administration. Of the 131 seats in parliament,
Prime Minister Serj Sarkisian’s Republican Party gained 64 mandates.
The Republicans also hope that out of the independent majoritarians
that were elected, at least 5 MPs will join their party.
In 2008, the Armenian presidential election will be held. Prime
Minister Serj Sarkisian is the clear front-runner.
It is also noteworthy that the parliamentary elections in Armenia
were considered to have been conducted without any major problems and
not only CIS countries called the elections successful, but western
observers as well.
Even though some opposition parties are protesting the results,
their protests are not strong enough to change anything.
The Armenian people as a whole are not expressing any serious problems
with the elections. Member of the victorious Republican Party Armen
Ahotyan stated that compared to the parliament formed in 2003, the
level of legitimacy of the new Armenian National Assembly was high.
The Armenian parliamentary elections also demonstrated that movement
towards a change of direction especially in foreign policy issues
was not yet underway.
According to Ahotyan, the parliament will not be "pro-western" though
they will try to work with many different parties in their foreign
policy reports the news agency Regnum.
Some analysts are sure that Armenia will remain firmly
Russian-oriented.
The Armenian newspaper Agzi reports that the Republican Party’s
victory in the elections shows that Russia will still be dominant in
Armenia and even if the local army strengthens cooperation with NATO,
it will still remain under Russia’s influence. The paper publishes
that Armenia’s pro-Moscow policy includes certain dangers including
the Nagorno-Karabakh separatist territory will become more of an
issue and relationships with Georgia will become tenser.
Armenia will have to juggle both their dependence on Russia with
their own interests which at times calls for relations with the west.
It is also in Armenia’s interest to maintain friendly relations with
Georgia which is important for Georgia as well so the likelihood of
relations ‘tensing’ between the two neighbors is small.