Agence France Presse — English
June 8, 2007 Friday 9:57 AM GMT
Putin’s missile defence proposal intensifies tug-of-war
by Nick Coleman
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer to share a radar station in
Azerbaijan with the United States for missile defence is aimed at
wresting back the initiative in a strategic tug-of-war, analysts said
Friday.
Putin’s proposal at the Group of Eight (G8) summit in Germany on
Thursday reflected a very different view of global security from
Washington’s and one that showed increasing wariness of US
intentions.
Russia has insisted that any efforts to build new anti-missile
systems should be a matter of joint efforts that would protect the
wider European continent.
Moscow remains deeply sceptical about the current US plan to place
interceptor missiles in Poland and elements of a linked radar system
in the Czech Republic, both NATO members.
Reflecting this, analyst Ivan Safranchuk, of the Moscow office of the
World Security Institute, said there was good reason to doubt
Washington’s claims that its plans are aimed only at "rogue states"
and not at Russia.
In the short-term Moscow is particularly worried that the radar in
the Czech Republic would peer deep into Russian territory, he said.
"Russia wants to be sure that the system will not have a dual purpose
and will be targeted only against the Middle East. The location in
Azerbaijan is a guarantee," he said.
The system proposed by the United States on the other hand "will be
operational in the Czech Republic and Poland for 30 years…. Even if
we believe Bush, who can give a promise on 30 years?"
"It’s absolutely silly to say: ‘Trust us because we’re friends.’"
Others however were much more sceptical of Putin’s plan, saying that
the vast Soviet-built radar in Azerbaijan would be useless against
missiles fired from that country’s southern neighbour, Iran.
An analyst at the Moscow office of the US-based Heritage Foundation,
Yevgeny Volk, said that Putin’s initiative was "mainly propogandistic
and political" and aimed at increasing the so far muted resistance to
the US proposals found in some west European countries.
He added that the initiative was unlikely to persuade the United
States to drop its plans for the Czech Republic and Poland.
"I can hardly believe America will give its assent. The proposal is
drafted in such a way that America will reject it," he said.
Meanwhile independent defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer pointed to
numerous problems with the Russian proposal.
The radar at Gabala in Azerbaijan is not equipped to link up with
interceptor missiles, being designed to monitor US military activity
further afield, he said.
It would also be highly vulnerable to any attack from Iran, being a
vast stationary structure 16 stories high, and due to its stationary
position is not even able to see into all corners of Iran, he said.
"Readings from the radar won’t help them. The radar provides
information that the United States already has," said Felgenhauer.
The Russian plan contradicts the US "ideology" on missile defence,
which is to start work on an interception system in order to
discourage Iran from developing long-range missiles in the first
place, he said.
Doubts were also voiced in Brussels on Friday by NATO Secretary
General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer.
"It’s a bit early to judge if an Azeri radar could do, and could be
the answer to the threats. I think it’s a bit close to the ‘rogue
states’ we are discussing," he said at a security conference in
Brussels.
In Azerbaijan itself, Putin’s plan received an initial welcome on
Friday, with Baku saying it was ready for talks.
But Moscow and its former Soviet satellite Azerbaijan have
increasingly been at odds and cooperation may not be easy.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who succeeded from his father in
2003, "is much more pro-Western than his father. He’s interested in
cooperation with Turkey and the United States," said Volk.
"The balance is mainly on (Moscow’s) side but it’s shifting to
America. Azerbaijan understands in defending its national security
interests it can hardly rely on Russia," Volk said, explaining that
Moscow is closely allied to Armenia, with which Azerbaijan fought a
brutal war in the 1990s.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
