Friday, Another Rights Group Condemns Use Of Cluster Bombs Against Karabakh Civilians • Armen Koloyan Armenia- A building damaged by recent shelling in Stepanakert, 17Oct2020 Human Rights Watch (HRW) accused Azerbaijan on Friday of repeatedly using widely banned cluster munitions in the shelling of civilian areas in Nagorno-Karabakh. “During an on-site investigation in Nagorno-Karabakh in October 2020, Human Rights Watch documented four incidents in which Azerbaijan used cluster munitions,” the U.S.-based group said in a report. The report says that HRW researchers have identified the “remnants of Israeli-produced LAR-160 series cluster munition rockets” in the Karabakh capital Stepanakert and the town of Hadrut and examined damage caused by them. “Azerbaijan received these surface-to-surface rockets and launchers from Israel in 2008–2009,” it says. “The continued use of cluster munitions – particularly in populated areas – shows flagrant disregard for the safety of civilians,” said Stephen Goose, the head of HRW’s arms division sector. “The repeated use of cluster munitions by Azerbaijan should cease immediately as their continued use serves to heighten the danger for civilians for years to come,” Goose said. London-based Amnesty International also condemned the use of cluster rockets against residential areas in Karabakh following the September 27 outbreak of large-scale hostilities between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. In an October 5 statement, it described the practice as “appalling and unacceptable.” Azerbaijan denounced the Amnesty statement, insisting that the Azerbaijani army is not deliberately targeting Karabakh civilians. “Azerbaijani officials have accused the Armenian side of using cluster munitions in this conflict, but Human Rights Watch has not independently verified those claims,” says the HRW report. It says the Azerbaijani authorities have refused to allow HRW to conduct a similar on-site investigation on Azerbaijani-controlled territory. “Neither Armenia, nor Nagorno-Karabakh de-facto authorities, are known to stockpile cluster munitions but they possess multi-barrel rocket launchers capable of delivering these weapons,” it concludes the report. According to officials in Stepanakert, the war has left nearly 40 Karabakh civilians dead so far. Thousands of others have taken refuge in Armenia. The fighting has also gravely affected many residents of Azerbaijani cities and villages north and east of Karabakh. The Azerbaijani authorities have reported more than 60 deaths among them. France Demands End To Turkish ‘Provocations’ In Karabakh FRANCE - French President Emmanuel Macron, wearing a protective face mask, welcomes Armenian President Armen Sarkissian for a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, France stepped up on Friday criticism of Turkey’s role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, saying that it is hampering international efforts to stop fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. “Our objective is clear: to see the ceasefire applied,” French government spokesman Gabriel Attal said after President Emmanuel Macron met with his Armenian counterpart Armen Sarkissian in Paris. “The President [Macron] is working closely with [Russian President] Vladimir Putin for this,” tweeted Attal. “The solution to this conflict can only be found in appeasement. That is why it is imperative that Turkey cease its dangerous provocations in the region.” Shortly after the outbreak of large-scale hostilities in and around Karabakh on September 27 Macron accused Turkey of recruiting jihadist fighters in Syria and sending them to Azerbaijan. "I urge all NATO partners to face up to the behavior of a NATO member,” the French leader said on October 1. The Turkish and Azerbaijani governments rejected the French accusations backed by Armenia. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev accused Macron of pro-Armenian bias. France, Russia and the United States have for decades led international efforts to resolve the Karabakh conflict in their capacity as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group. The three mediating powers have repeatedly called for an immediate end to the ongoing war. The situation in the conflict zone was the main focus of Macron’s talks with Sarkissian. A statement by the Armenian presidential press office said the two leaders agreed on the need for an unconditional implementation of Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire agreements that were brokered by Moscow and Paris earlier this month. The statement cited Sarkissian as saying that Turkey’s military support for Azerbaijan is “further escalating the situation and endangering regional peace and stability.” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said last week that “the only country which isn’t calling for respect of the ceasefire is Turkey.” Turkish Vice-President Fuat Oktay told the CNN Turk broadcaster on Wednesday that Ankara will not hesitate to send troops to Azerbaijan if such a request is made by Baku. Moscow, Yerevan Want Removal Of ‘Foreign Fighters’ From Karabakh Conflict Zone NAGORNO-KARABAKH -- A view shows a fragment of an artillery shell at the fighting positions of ethnic Armenian soldiers on the front line during a military conflict against Azerbaijan's armed forces, October 20, 2020. Senior Russian and Armenian diplomats demanded the immediate removal of foreign mercenaries from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone when they discussed continuing hostilities there on Friday. The Russian Foreign Ministry said Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Oleg Syromolotov and the Armenian ambassador in Moscow, Vartan Toghanian, “exchanged thoughts in the context of the continuing escalation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone.” “They emphasized the unacceptability of the deployment to the region of militants of illegal armed groups from a number of Middle Eastern and North African countries and the necessity of their immediate withdrawal from there,” the ministry said in a short statement. RUSSIA -- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Oleg Syromolotov attends an international conference in Moscow, September 3, 2018 Russia implicitly accused Turkey of recruiting “terrorists and mercenaries” from Syria and Libya for the Azerbaijani army shortly after the outbreak of the ongoing war over Karabakh on September 27. The Russian foreign intelligence chief, Sergei Naryshkin, warned on October 6 that the region could become a “launch pad” for Islamist militants to enter Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his foreign and defense ministers have raised the matter with their Turkish counterparts in phone calls reported in recent weeks. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday that Russian “military experts” and other officials are serious dealing with “this issue.” She did not elaborate. “I can assure you that very active work is being done in a non-public manner,” Zakharova told reporters. “This is a really serious problem for us.” Ankara strongly denies sending members of Turkish-backed groups to fight in Karabakh on Azerbaijan’s side. Baku also denies the presence of such mercenaries in the Azerbaijani army ranks. Multiple reports by Western media have quoted members of Islamist rebel groups in areas of northern Syria under Turkish control as saying over the past month that they are deploying to Azerbaijan in coordination with the Turkish government. Trump Claims Progress Towards Karabakh Truce U.S. - U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to journalists in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, . U.S. President Donald Trump spoke of “really good progress” made in international efforts to stop the war over Nagorno-Karabakh after U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Washington on Friday. Reuters reported that Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov met with Pompeo for about 40 minutes. Moments after he left, Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanian arrived for his meeting. Pompeo tweeted after the separate talks that he discussed with Mnatsakanian and Bayramov “critical steps to halt violence in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.” “Both [sides] must implement a ceasefire and return to substantive negotiations,” he wrote. Pompeo did not report any fresh Armenian-Azerbaijani agreements that effect. The U.S. State Department spokeswoman, Morgan Ortagus, said separately that Pompeo believes a Karabakh settlement should be based on “the Helsinki Final Act principles of the non-use or threat of force, territorial integrity, and the equal rights and self-determination of peoples.” U.S. - U.S.Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets with Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanian in Washington, . According to the Armenian Foreign Ministry, Mnatsakanian told Pompeo that Azerbaijan is unwilling to respect ceasefire agreements and is seeking a military solution to the Karabakh conflict. He also condemned Turkey’s military support for Azerbaijan. For his part, Bayramov was reported to brief Pompeo on Azerbaijan’s “just position” and Armenia’s “destructive policy” on the Karabakh conflict. Meanwhile, Trump said Washington is “working with Armenia” with regard to de-escalating the conflict. “We have a very good relationship with Armenia,” Trump told reporters at the White Hose. “They are very good people, they are so dedicated. They are incredible people, and we will see what happens.” “I think really good progress is being made with respect to that,” he said. “We have a lot of people living in this country originally from Armenia. They are great people and we’re going to help them.” Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed hope on Thursday that the U.S. will assist Russia in its efforts to get the conflicting parties to respect a ceasefire agreement that was brokered by Moscow on October 10. U.S. -- U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov to discuss the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, at the State Department in Washington, The U.S. Russia and France have been leading international efforts to resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in their capacity as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group. They have repeatedly issued joint statements calling for an immediate end to the hostilities. The hostilities continued unabated on Friday, with both sides reporting heavy fighting at various sections of the “line of contact” around Karabakh. Karabakh’s Armenian-backed army said it continued to repel Azerbaijani attacks on its frontline positions south of the disputed region. The Defense Army released the names of 27 more Armenian soldier killed in action, raising to 924 the total number of combat deaths within its ranks. The Azerbaijani army has still not disclosed its combat casualties. Nagorno-Karabakh - Firefighters try to extinguish fire in Stepanakert caused by shelling, . There were also reports of continued shelling of civilian areas on either side of the “line of contact.” In particular, Karabakh’s capital Stepanakert came under Azerbaijani rocket fire for the first time in four days. Local authorities said the rocket strike destroyed several buildings and shops and damaged a gas pipeline. “The Defense Army will strike back shortly,” a Karabakh official said following the late-night shelling. Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL Copyright (c) 2020 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc. 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
Author: Adrine Hakobian
Tbilisi: Aliyev: Weapons Smuggled by Civilian Planes to Armenia
“According to the information at our disposal, smuggled weapons were sent from the Georgian territory to Armenia by civilian and cargo planes,” Baku-based Report News Agency quoted Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as saying in an interview with Turkish TV channel A Haber on October 16.
Aliyev claimed that “rich Armenian businessmen” living in Russia have purchased an IL-76 plane that is being used to smuggle Russian Armenians as mercenaries in Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as anti-tank and air defense weaponry to Armenia.
“I can say that Iran and Georgia have closed the airspace and land roads for the delivery of weapons to Armenia,” Aliyev stated, expressing gratitude to the governments of the two neighboring countries. However, the Azerbaijani leader asserted that the military goods are being declared as civilian cargo and transported illegally.
President Aliyev stated that the Azerbaijani government has addressed the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) regarding the matter.
Earlier in October, the National Security Council of Georgia stated that the issuance of permits for transiting military cargo through its territory towards both Azerbaijan and Armenia was suspended as soon as tensions erupted in the Nagorno-Karabakh.
Regardless, Tbilisi has frequently faced accusations of military transit through its territory, with officials denouncing various allegations, such as allowing the transfer of Syrian militants, as well as arms transit to Azerbaijan.
Most recently, deputy FM Lasha Darsalia denounced media reports that military shipments through Georgia are carried out via civil fights as “manipulation of information,” asserting that “the flights taking place in the airspace of Georgia are of humanitarian and civil nature only.”
TURKISH Ambassador to Canada: Canada should work with Turkey to end conflict in South Caucasus
For the last couple of weeks, Canadian public opinion has been bombarded with a disinformation campaign regarding the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territory and the clashes around Nagorno-Karabakh. This campaign resulted in my country, a NATO ally, being unfairly penalized regarding drone technology.
First and foremost, to set the record straight, Turkey has not been a party to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and was not involved in the recent clashes. Both Turkish and Azeri authorities have totally and unequivocally rejected claims emanating from Armenia.
Read also: Armenia’s amassador calls on Canada to pressure its NATO ally Turkey
Armenia’s attempts to pull Turkey into this conflict are futile. Instead of trying to provoke Turkey, Yerevan should come to its senses, evacuate Azeri territory it has been occupying and start genuinely talking to Azerbaijan for a lasting peaceful solution, in line with its neighbour’s territorial integrity.
On the contrary, the Armenian leadership becomes more hysterical and aggressive by the day, bombing Azeri civilians in order to spread the conflict, divert attention away from its illegal occupation and to try and portray Armenia as the “victim,” rather than the culprit.
Nevertheless, this cannot obstruct the reality accepted by the international community that Armenia is the aggressor. Nor can it erase international law that clearly states this fact.
Indeed, illegal Armenian occupation lies at the heart of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Many Canadians might have missed this core fact due to the dense propaganda cloud produced by the vocal Armenian lobby and its allies.
Armenia has occupied 21 per cent of Azerbaijan’s territory for 30 years, despite four UN Security Council Resolutions and many UN General Assembly resolutions, which call for “the immediate, complete and unconditional withdrawal of occupying Armenian forces”.
By disregarding these UN resolutions, Armenia makes a mockery of international law and the rules-based international system. This is something that I know is close to the Canadian heart and sense of fairness.
The human rights front is also very important: Armenian occupation has caused profound human suffering, displacing a million Azerbaijanis who are yearning for 30 years to return to their homes which remain under Armenian occupation. Those occupied lands are not only limited to Nagorno-Karabakh; Armenia also occupies seven adjacent Azeri rayons (regions). Unfortunately, many human rights activists or decision makers in the Western world are reticent when it comes to defending the basic human rights of the Azeri displaced persons.
Clearly, Armenia’s stance is the biggest obstacle to peace and stability in the South Caucasus. It does not want to peacefully coexist with its neighbours, nor does it want a negotiated settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It only wants to appear negotiating in order to consolidate its illegal gains.
Indeed, in the meantime, Armenia has been altering the demographic composition of the occupied Azerbaijani territories, by resettling ethnic Armenians from Syria and Lebanon in Nagorno-Karabakh and the adjacent provinces it occupies.
That is why the negotiations under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group and its three co-chairs have failed to produce any concrete result. Turkey is also a member of the Minsk Group, following developments closely.
Armenia’s recent attack against Azerbaijan on the morning of Sept. 27, probably designed to stir nationalist sentiment and divert attention from its economic hardships, was a miscalculated step. Azerbaijan launched a counter operation to protect its population and restore its territorial integrity by invoking its inherent right of self-defence, enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter.
Simultaneously Armenia’s propaganda efforts intensified, including in Canada. These efforts are designed to conceal another fact: That all the fighting has actually taken place within Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders. Indeed, not a single shot has been fired towards the territory of the Republic of Armenia.
Armenia, on the other hand, has attacked the civilian population and infrastructure well beyond the territory it occupies within Azerbaijan. Armenian occupation forces targeted major Azerbaijani cities like Gence, Mengiçevir, Abşeron, Hızı, Terter, Berde and Beylegan with long-range artillery and rocket fire, killing civilians.
By targeting these Azeri cities, the Armenian leadership tried to provoke Azerbaijan to retaliate on Armenia proper. This did not happen. The Oct. 11 attack on the city of Gence, right after the humanitarian ceasefire took effect, killing at least nine civilians and wounding more than 35, was the latest provocation, well reported by the BBC.
Armenian forces also attacked the international gas and oil pipelines in Azerbaijan, threatening the energy security of a wider region, including the European Union. They were swiftly put out of action by Azeri drones.
So what should Turkey and Canada, two NATO allies, do in this conflict?
Turkey reiterated its support for Azerbaijan on Sept. 27, when Armenia restarted its armed aggression. This support is not only based on Turkey’s special bonds with Azerbaijan, but also stems from the fact that Azerbaijan stands on the side of international law. Turkey will continue to give strong political and moral support to Azerbaijan. However, Turkey is not a party to this conflict and is not present on the battleground.
Turkey does not want conflict and war close to its borders. Our heart goes out to any civilian caught up in the conflict. As is proven by the fact that we are looking after four million Syrian displaced persons for close to 10 years, at a huge expense, Turkey is very sensitive about human rights.
But let’s not miss the essence of the matter: the peace we need between Azerbaijan and Armenia needs to be a permanent and fair one, not a temporary Band Aid. This can only be achieved by ending Armenian occupation of all Azeri territory.
To this end, Canada and the international community must pressure Armenia to end its illegal occupation, once and for all. This will pave the way for a lasting peace and much better relations with not only Azerbaijan, but also with Turkey.
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I believe Canada has a lot to offer to this end. But increasing defence equipment restrictions to a NATO ally, Turkey, simply because it is standing by Azerbaijan, and because the Armenian lobby in Canada is acting like a spoilt child, is not a good message in this direction. Such restrictions do nothing but emboldening the aggressor, Armenia.
The Canada I know is rightly proud of upholding international law and human rights in its foreign policy. Therefore, is it not the perfect time to support peace and stability in the South Caucasus by demanding that Armenia respect UN resolutions and end its illegal occupation? I hope you would agree that this is indeed the right time for Canada to remember the suffering of a million Azeris and extend a helping hand to those unfortunate people who have been living as displaced persons within their own land, as a result of Armenia’s 30-year long occupation.
With this understanding, I call upon our Canadian partners to work with its NATO ally Turkey to put pressure on the Armenian leadership in order to achieve a fair, long-lasting and peaceful solution.
Russian PM emphasizes necessity for immediate cessation of hostilities
19:55, 8 October, 2020
YEREVAN, OCTOBER 8, ARMENPRESS. Prime Minister of Russia Mikhail Mishustin emphasized the necessity for an immediate stabilization of the situation, cessation of military operations in Nagorno Karabakh conflict zone and resumption of negotiations., ARMENPRESS reports, citing the official website of the Russian Government, Mishustin said in a phone conversation with Azerbaijani prime minister Ali Asadov.
‘We are Prepared to Recognize Artsakh,’ Schiff Tells Armenia’s Ambassador
October 8, 2020
“I believe the United States should make clear to Azerbaijan and Turkey that if they persist in this violence instead of embracing a peaceful settlement of the conflict, we are prepared to recognize the Republic of Artsakh as an independent nation,” said Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) pledging to work with the international community to “achieve the same.”
Schiff made the statement during a conversation he had on Thursday with Armenia’s Ambassador to the United States Varuzhan Nersesyan about the continuing conflict in Artsakh.
“We discussed Azerbaijan’s ongoing military campaign, aided and abetted by Turkey and the foreign fighters it is bringing in from Syria, and which has killed hundreds and displaced up to half of the civilian population of Artsakh. We also discussed Azerbaijan’s deliberate bombing of a historic Armenian Church, the Ghazanchetsots Cathedral, in the city of Shushi,” Schiff said.
“For decades, through the OSCE Minsk Group, the United States has supported a peaceful, democratic, and negotiated resolution to the dispute surrounding Nagorno Karabakh. We have persisted in this policy even as Azerbaijan launched countless assaults and as their leadership frequently threatened war to redraw the line of contact by force,” added Schiff.”
“Presidents Aliyev and Erdogan must understand that they cannot resolve a decades long border dispute though the indiscriminate use of force against civilians, and the United States will not stand idly by as they attempt to do so. The only resolution of this dispute can be through negotiations, not raining artillery and bombs on Armenian civilians,” said Schiff.
Schiff urged decisive action by the Trump Administration in an interview on Wednesday with Asbarez Editor Ara Khachatourian over Zoom, saying the White House should condemn Ankara and Baku for threatening regional stability and security.
Since Azerbaijan began indiscriminately bombing Artsakh on September 27, Schiff has joined House and Senate leaders in calling on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to cut U.S. military assistance to Azerbaijan and imposing sanctions against Turkey for its unequivocal support for Baku’s military aggression and destructive interference in the Karabakh conflict.
He has also co-authored, along with Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.) legislation to condemn Azerbaijan and Turkey for their military aggression against Artsakh and Armenia.
Georgia suspends military cargo transit to Armenia, Azerbaijan
How the escalation in Karabakh has affected Armenians living in Georgia
Turkish lira hits record low after Azerbaijan-Armenia clashes erupt
Turkey’s lira hit an all-time low against the dollar after the country became embroiled in a latest regional conflict, this time between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The lira fell 2.1 percent to 7.819 per dollar, taking losses this year to 24 percent. It traded weaker than 10 against the British pound, hitting double figures for the first time since the government wiped six zeroes off the currency in 2004
Turkey has deployed military hardware including F-16 fighter aircraft to Azerbaijan ahead of the latest military clashes with Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a majority Armenian region within Azerbaijan’s borders. The lira is also falling after financial institutions including Goldman Sachs said the time was not right to invest in emerging market currencies.
“The fear is that Turkey, whose economy is on its knees and is actively engaged in escalating conflicts in northern Syria, and with Greece in the Mediterranean, could get dragged into yet another regional conflict it can ill afford, either politically or economically,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda in Singapore, according to Bloomberg.
Turkey has deployed its military to fight Kurdish militants allied with the United States in Syria, sent its navy to protect drill ships near Greek islands in the eastern Mediterranean and is supplying military hardware and know-how to the government in Tripoli, Libya against an opposition army backed by Russia and Egypt.
The Turkish central bank unexpectedly increased its benchmark interest rate by 2 percentage points to 10.25 percent last week to help defend the lira, which investors have sold on concerns for economic instability as the government fuelled growth with a flood of cheap lending from state-run banks.
Turkey is an historical ally of Azerbaijan, with which it shares close cultural and language ties. The Azeri and Armenian militaries clashed on Sunday with Armenia saying it was responding to missile attacks from Azerbaijan. The two countries fought a war over the region in 1994. The conflict ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire, which the two countries have undermined by skirmishes on several occasions since.
International banks including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank are taking a risk-off approach to high-yielding emerging market assets such as the lira, citing expected volatility over U.S. elections. Turkey suffered a currency crisis in 2018 and some investors are concerned that it will be repeated.
On Monday, Turkey's banking watchdog loosened banks' asset ratio requirements, in place since April to coerce banks into lending more to the economy and to buy government debt. The ratio was lowered to 90 percent from a previous 95 percent.
(This story was updated with latest lira price in the second paragraph, banking measures in last.)
Tsarukyan’s arrest ‘deafened public outcry’ over ‘secret’ Armenian-Azerbaijani processes – politician
In a public post on Facebook, the politician slams the criminal case against the Prosperous Armenia party's (PAP) leader as an attempt to "tone down" the noise over the recent "confessions".
He also warns of "extremely dangerous" processes over Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh), highlighting the national security and territorial integrity threats to the two Armenian republics.
"At this critical moment, the travelling circus – with its clowns and journalists provoking intrigues – will go away from Armenia, leaving us with a Fatherland at the threshold of a calamity, which we will protect again, win and rebuild," Ghazinyan says.
Turkish press: Turkey and the US presidential election
Turkey called back its research vessel Oruç Reis to port in order to support efforts by Germany and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to facilitate dialogue with Greece. As Ankara and Athens continue to exchange statements, tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean will be discussed at the Special European Council on Sept. 24-25.
In the meantime, the United States inches toward a historic presidential election. With the Nov. 3 vote just six weeks away, voters are bombarded with sensational claims and a war of words. From U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks on face coverings and COVID-19 transmission to his words about fallen soldiers and sexual harassment allegations, everything is being fiercely debated.
Although pollsters say that Joe Biden, his Democratic challenger, is ahead even in swing states, Trump seems to be catching up. The post-coronavirus economic recovery, the creation of new jobs, reaction to Black Lives Matter protests' violent turn and Latinos moving away from Biden all play into Trump's hands. Moreover, experts agree that Trump is likely to outperform Biden in televised debates. Still, America witnessed a particularly close race – and whether the results will be accepted by both sides remains uncertain.
To appreciate the level of global interest in U.S. elections, a quick look at U.S. intelligence reports about Russian meddling in the race on Trump's behalf, as China roots for Biden, would suffice. Those kinds of heated exchanges over foreign meddling will affect the elections. Americans seem to overwhelmingly believe that the United States will become a different country if Trump is re-elected.
In his second term, experts say, Trump would likely double down on his dismissal of the transatlantic alliance, international organizations and norms – as well as his "America First" policy. At the same time, the U.S. president could further weaken the establishment to reshape the country, more obviously, by a wave of white nationalism.
There will almost certainly be more uncertainty in the world, as Washington's competition with China fuels global turmoil. If elected, Biden is expected to strengthen the transatlantic alliance, to be more interested in balancing Russia, to revive the Iran nuclear deal and handle the U.S. rivalry with China more softly. Obviously, the Democratic contender, who would have to deal with domestic issues as well, will not be able to restore the liberal international order and the power struggle will rage on.
Who wins the next U.S. presidential election could have major repercussions for the Middle East as well. If re-elected, Trump can be counted on to continue the U.S. withdrawal, put Israel first and continue to realign the Gulf states with Tel Aviv. Right now, Trump is busy putting on a show at the White House for Arab leaders signing normalization agreements with Israel. Rumor has it that Oman, Kuwait, Morocco and Saudi Arabia will follow in the footsteps of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain soon. It would be hardly surprising if Washington were to get Qatar on board, promising some kind of normalization with other Gulf states. At the same time, the Trump administration could get African, Latin American and Asian nations to relocate their embassies to Jerusalem – as it did with Balkan states like Serbia and Kosovo.
Having built his election campaign (and his shot at the Nobel Peace Prize) around normalization with Israel, Trump already imposes a major transformation on the Middle East. If elected, however, Biden should not be expected to walk back on the U.S. policy of furthering Israel's interests. The Democrat, however, would be more likely to distance himself from certain Gulf states and pursue normalization with Iran – which may result in some changes.
Although Trump remains unlikely to play an active role in the Eastern Mediterranean, Biden would possibly work with Greece and the Greek Cypriots to contain Turkey. Having pledged to support Turkey's opposition leaders in an attempt to topple President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Democratic contender would obviously experience some tensions with Ankara in the election's immediate aftermath. Observers also expect Biden to further strengthen Washington's engagement with the terrorist organization PKK's Syrian branch, the YPG, to challenge Turkey's relations with Russia and move closer to the alleged Armenian genocide.
Moreover, the prevalence of anti-Turkey figures on Team Biden may have a negative impact on bilateral relations. To counterbalance that impact, leader-to-leader diplomacy between Erdoğan and Biden would always present opportunities. Turkey becomes an increasingly prominent player in the new geopolitical stage in Iraq, Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya.
To alienate Turkey would serve the interests of neither the U.S. nor the European Union. The country has been powerful enough to manage its overlapping and contradicting interests with the U.S., Russia, China and the EU for some time now.