Author: Adrine Hakobian

Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis
 Tuesday


Armenia in Political Limbo as Sargsyan Leadership Move Collapses

 Vol. XXXVI, No. 24



Analysis. From GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs sources in Yerevan.
Longtime Armenian leader Serzh Sargsyan's plan to emulate the
leadership transition models implemented by neighboring Turkey and
Russia collapsed on April 23, 2018, when the newly-installed Prime
Minister was forced to resign in the face of mass protests in the
three largest cities of the country. Mr Sargsyan had engineered a
transfer of most of the executive powers of the Presidency to the post
of Prime Minister, coincided to time with the end of his second and
final term as President, and then have Parliament, under the control
of his Republican Party of Armenia (Hayastani Hanrapetakan
Kusaktsutyun : HHK), elect him as Premier.

Presidential elections were held in Armenia on March 2, 2018, and, as
a result of the 2015 Armenian Constitutional Referendum, this was to
be the first time that the country's President would be elected by the
National Assembly instead of by direct, popular vote.



Under the results of the referendum, the Presidency would now become
largely ceremonial under what the Government called a move from a
"semi-presidential system" to a parliamentary republic. Outgoing Pres.
Serzh Sargsyan was, in any event, constitutionally prohibited for
running for a third consecutive term. Former Prime Minister (November
4, 1996 to March 20, 1997) Armen Vardani Sarkissian, and subsequently
Ambassador to the Court of St. James in the UK, ran unopposed for the
Presidency, and received 90 votes from the National Assembly,
representing 85.71 percent of the parliamentarians. Although he ran as
an independent, he was nominated by the Republican Party of Armenia
(outgoing Pres. Sargsyan's party) , and the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation. Pres. Sarkissian (no relation to the outgoing President)
was sworn into office on April 9, 2018.

On April 17, 2018, Parliamentarians elected former Pres. Sargsyan, 63,
as Prime Minister, in a 76 to 17 vote, ensuring that he would retain
control of the Government, now in the hands of the Office of Prime
Minister. Mr Sargsyan claimed that his premiership would not amount to
a third term in office because he would, he said, wield fewer powers
than he did in the Presidency of the republic, noting: "People have
still not realized that there is no one-man rule anymore." Mr
Sargsyan's candidacy was backed by the deputies from his ruling
Republican Party (HHK), its junior coalition partner, Dashnaktsutyun,
as well as more than a dozen lawmakers representing businessman Gagik
Tsarukian's nominally opposition alliance. Mr Tsarukian did not attend
the session.

However, Mr Sargsyan's election as Prime Minister immediately caused
protests to erupt, particularly in Yerevan, Gyumri, and Vanadzor.
Opposition figure and journalist Nikol Pashinian (leader of the Way
Out alliance, which won nine seats in the 2017 elections) was the
clear leader of the street protests, and he and several other
protestors, including opposition politician Sasun Mikaelian, were
arrested on April 22, 2018, after leading a march against the Prime
Minister in Yerevan's southern Erebuni district. Talks between Mr
Pashinian and Prime Minister Sagsyan had earlier failed to reach an
accord. The arrests only exacerbated the situation, with thousands of
protestors filling Republic Square on April 22, 2018, so on April 23,
2018, Mr Pashinian was released and rejoined the street protests.

The protestors had claimed that Mr Sargsyan had promised, when the
Referendum of 2015 took place, that he would not seek the Premiership
after departing the Presidency, and had now violated that pledge. As a
result, on April 23, 2018, Mr Sargsyan resigned the Premiership. In a
statement on his website, outgoing Prime Minister Sargsyan said that
Mr Pashinian "was right. I was wrong", and "I am leaving the post of
prime minister", and "The movement of the street is against my tenure.
I am fulfilling your demand." The Russian Government expressed
solidarity with Armenia following the Prime Minister's resignation.

The former Prime Minister, Karen Vilhelmi Karapetyan, who had been
displaced by Mr Sargsyan on April 17, 2018, resumed the Premiership on
April 23, 2018, in an acting capacity until Parliament could elect a
new Prime Minister.

                                        Sunday, 

Talks To End Armenian Standoff Collapse


Armenia - Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian (L) and opposition leader Nikol 
Pashinian meet in Yerevan, .

Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian rejected calls for his resignation on Sunday 
morning during a short and very tense meeting with opposition leader Nikol 
Pashinian which was aimed at ending ongoing anti-government protests in Armenia.

The two men spoke for only three minutes at a hotel in Yerevan in front of 
reporters after nine days of massive demonstrations organized by Pashinian in 
the capital and other parts of the country.

“I have come here to discuss the terms of your resignation and peaceful 
transfer of power,” Pashinian said at the start of the meeting.

“This is not a negotiation, this is not a dialogue,” Sarkisian responded, 
interrupting the 42-year-old politician. “This is an ultimatum, blackmail 
against legal authorities of the state. You do not realize the extent of your 
responsibility.”

“You have not learned lessons from March 1,” Sarkisian added, referring to the 
deadly 2008 post-election unrest that preceded his rise to power.

He then warned Pashinian to “come to the legal field.” “Or else, you will bear 
full responsibility [for further developments.] Make a choice,” he said.

Pashinian rejected “the tone of threats” and accused Sarkisian of failing to 
realize the extent of popular anger with his decision to hold on to power. 
“Power in Armenia has shifted to the people,” he said.

“A faction that got 7-8 percent of the vote [in the April 2017 parliamentary 
elections] cannot speak on behalf of the people, and I don’t want to talk to 
you anymore,” Sarkisian shot back before storming out of the room.

Speaking to the press, Pashinian said he will continue his daily rallies 
because the premier, who served as Armenia’s president from 2008-2018, has 
completely lost touch with reality. He urged Armenians to demonstrate against 
the government with even “greater vigor.”

Pashinian also insisted that he is undaunted by government threats to use force 
against him and his supporters. He again said that the protests do not violate 
an Armenian law on public gatherings.

Pashinian has repeatedly warned the authorities against arresting him, saying 
that would only accelerate their downfall. On Saturday, two prominent civic 
activists involved in his movement, Armen Grigorian and Davit Sanasarian, were 
arrested on suspicion of inciting “mass disturbances.”




Armenian Protest Leader Detained

        • Karlen Aslanian

Armenia - Police arrest opposition leader Nikol Pashinian during a 
demonstration in Yerevan, .

Just one hour after his failed meeting with Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, 
opposition leader Nikol Pashinian was detained by police on Sunday during yet 
another anti-government demonstration organized by him in Yerevan.

Pashinian was confronted by masked police officers and other security personnel 
as he led a crowd of several hundred supporters marching to the city’s southern 
Erebuni district. The police fired stun grenades to stop the march.


Armenia - Police fire a stun grenade at protesters in Yerevan, .
Several other protesters, including Sasun Mikaelian and Ararat Mirzoyan, close 
associates of Pashinian, were also detained on the spot. Most demonstrators 
started moving back to the city center about 30 minutes later. Others stayed on 
and chanted “Nikol!”

Mikaelian was dragged away by policemen moments after urging the protesters to 
“free Nikol” and continue to fight for Sarkisian’s resignation. “They want to 
strangle our freedom, come here, don’t be afraid of anyone,” he shouted.

In a statement, the Armenian police said Pashinian, Mikaelian and Mirzoyan were 
“forcibly removed from the site of the gathering” because of being the 
organizers of an “illegal” demonstration. The statement did not say whether 
they will be prosecuted.


Armenia - Police detain opposition parliamentarian Sasun Mikaelian during an 
anti-government rally in Yerevan, .

Pashinian and the two other politicians are members of the Armenian parliament 
representing the opposition Yelk alliance. Law-enforcement authorities need the 
National Assembly’s permission to charge and remand them in pre-trial custody. 
They can hold the three men in custody without a charge for up to 72 hours.

Earlier in the morning, Pashinian met with Sarkisian and again demanded his 
resignation. The premier rejected the demand and said Pashinian will bear “full 
responsibility” for his push for regime change.




RFE/RL Reporter Attacked By Policeman In Yerevan



A journalist for RFE/RL’s Armenian service (Azatutyun.am), Naira Bulghadarian, 
was attacked by a masked police officer while covering continuing opposition 
protesters in Yerevan on Sunday.

The officer wearing a black balaclava grabbed and threw away Bulghadarian’s 
camera which was steaming live video for Azatutyun TV from the city’s central 
Republic Square.

Bulghadarian immediately complained to Colonel Valeri Osipian, a deputy chief 
of Yerevan’s police department coordinating police actions at the scene, about 
the attack. “He did a very bad thing,” said Osipian. “Show me him and we will 
punish him.”

“The police are carrying out a special operation here,” he added. “Please stay 
now at a section [of the square] where your cameras won’t be damaged.”

Several other police officers beat up a broadcast producer for RFE/RL’s 
Armenian service, Anatoly Yeghiazarian, in another Yerevan square on Saturday 
night. Yeghiazarian was attacked as he tried to film with his mobile phone 
security forces dispersing protesters’ cars blocking the square.




Protests Continue In Yerevan Despite Arrests

        • Naira Bulghadarian
        • Sisak Gabrielian
        • Ruzanna Stepanian
        • Karlen Aslanian

Armenia - Opposition supporters march in Yerevan, .

Thousands of people again took to the streets of Yerevan on Sunday following 
the arrest of Nikol Pashinian and other organizers of daily protests against 
Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian.

The angry protests broke out spontaneously in several parts of the capital 
despite heightened police presence at two key squares and several other 
locations.

Hundreds of security forces were deployed at Republic Square, the main protest 
venue, shortly after Pashinian and two other opposition lawmakers were detained 
in the morning. They repeatedly tried to clear the square of protesters, 
detaining at least two dozen of them in the process. Hundreds of people managed 
to rally there early in the afternoon, however.


Armenia - Riot police confront protesters in Republic Square in Yerevan, 22 
April 2018.
Thousands of others marched through major streets in and around the city center 
in the meantime. Security forces did not attempt to disperse them.

Protesters also gathered outside a police station in the city’s southern 
Shengavit district where two the detained opposition lawmakers, Sasun Mikaelian 
and Ararat Mirzoyan, were reportedly held. They argued with police officers 
guarding the entrance to the building.

The crowd grew bigger in the afternoon, blocking a street adjacent to the 
police station at one point. Police reinforcements rushed to the site did not 
immediately manage to unblock the street occupied by several hundred protesters 
demanding the release of the oppositionists.


Armenia -- Priests lead marching opposition protesters in Yerevan, 22 April 
2018.
Meanwhile, Armenia’s Office of the Prosecutor-General defended the arrest of 
Pashinian’s Mirzoyan and Mikaelian, saying that they have organized 
unsanctioned rallies and urged supporters to block streets and entrances to 
state buildings. It claimed that participants of those gatherings also 
assaulted police officers.

A statement by the prosecutors did not say whether they will press any criminal 
charges against the three lawmakers. They need the Armenian parliament’s 
permission for doing so. Without such permission, parliament deputies cannot be 
held in custody for more than three days.

Despite his detention, Pashinian was able to take to Facebook and again urge 
supporters to converge on Republic Square at 7 p.m. He said the arrests have 
not paralyzed his movement.

According to the police, a total of 192 people were taken into custody by 3 p.m.




EU Urges Renewed Dialogue In Armenia

        • Emil Danielyan

Armenia -- Near Yerevan's main train station, groups of protesters merge into 
larger group heading for the city center, 

The European Union on Sunday called on Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian and 
opposition forces challenging him in the streets to urgently resume 
negotiations on settling the deepening political crisis in Armenia.

A spokesperson for EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini also said that 
the Armenian authorities must “fully respect” citizens’ constitutional right to 
demonstrate peacefully and “apply the law in a fair and proportionate manner.”

“All those who have been detained while exercising their fundamental right of 
assembly in accordance with the law must be released immediately,” Maja 
Kocijancic said in a statement released several hours after the arrest of the 
protest leader, Nikol Pashinian, and two other Armenian opposition lawmakers.

“It is of utmost importance that all parties involved show restraint and act 
responsibly,” added the statement. “An inclusive dialogue, as President Arman 
Sarkissian has called for, aimed at an immediate and peaceful resolution of the 
current situation, is essential.”

The EU official described as “disappointing and worrying” the failure of brief 
crisis talks held by Serzh Sarkisian and Pashinian in the morning.

“The European Union reiterates that it is crucial that all parties show 
restraint and responsibility and urgently seek a negotiated solution,” read a 
separate statement released by the EU Delegation in Armenia and the 
Yerevan-based embassies of EU member states.


BELGIUM -- European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker (L) and EU Council 
President Donald Tusk hold a joint news conference during a European Union 
leaders summit meeting in Brussels, October 20, 2017

Amid the angry protests sparked by Serzh Sarkisian’s decision to extend his 
rule, the EU’s two top officials have congratulated him on becoming Armenia’s 
prime minister on April 17, eight days after serving out his final presidential 
term.

President Sarkissian, who arranged the premier’s meeting with the outspoken 
opposition leader, seemed to blame Pashinian for the collapse of Sunday’s 
talks, while also calling for renewed dialogue. “It is essential to give up the 
unconstructive stance and behavior, which could undermine the country’s 
stability, and continue to look for possibilities of dialogue,” he said.

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun), Serzh Sarkisian’s 
junior coalition partner, likewise said compromise solutions can be found even 
after “the latest events.” There can be “no winners and losers” in the 
standoff, it warned.

The embattled premier was in no rush to again reach out to his protesting 
political opponents. One of his allies, parliament speaker Ara Babloyan, said 
Pashinian is not interested in “mutual concessions” and will therefore be 
responsible for “severe” consequences of the standoff.

Meanwhile, the opposition Yelk alliance, of which Pashinian is a leader, 
strongly condemned the arrest of its three parliamentarians and demanded their 
immediate release. It said Pashinian, Ararat Mirzoyan and Sasun Mikaelian must 
be freed in order to “ensure a peaceful course of the events.”




Huge Crowds Keep Up Pressure On Armenian PM

        • Karlen Aslanian

Armenia -- Tens of thousands of people gather in Yerevan's Republic square for 
a protest against Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, 22Apr2018

Massive rallies against Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian intensified on 
Sunday evening, with tens of thousands of people filling Yerevan’s largest 
square in the absence of Nikol Pashinian, the protest leader arrested earlier 
in the day.

The arrests of Pashinian and several of his close associates led other, younger 
members of his Civil Contract party to organize and address what was the 
biggest rally held since the start of the daily protests on April 13.

Lena Nazarian, the sole parliament deputy from Civil Contract not detained yet, 
read out an online statement by Pashinian calling on Armenians to continue to 
demand Sarkisian’s resignation with peaceful acts of “civil disobedience.” 
Pashinian also urged them to avoid any violent clashes with security forces. 
The crowd repeatedly burst into “Nikol!” chants.

“Everything must remain peaceful,” said Ruben Rubinian, a Civil Contract 
activist who moderated the rally.He said people must continue to block streets, 
hold marches and sit-ins, boycott classes and rally at Republic Square on a 
daily basis.

Citing safety concerns, Rubinian also made clear that all kinds of protest must 
end at 10 p.m. “He who stays and acts on the street after 10 o’clock has 
nothing to do with our movement,” he said.

Pashinian’s wife, Anna Hakobian, also spoke at the rally. “We must demonstrate 
until Serzh Sarkisian signs his resignation letter,” she said. “Serzh 
Sarkisian, please do that quickly.”

Sarkisian, who took over as prime minister on April 17 after serving as 
president for ten years, rejected the demands for his resignation at a 
televised meeting with her husband held in the morning. Pashinian was detained 
more than an hour later.

As of Sunday night, the authorities refused to specify where Pashinian is being 
held. Opposition lawmakers tried unsuccessfully to visit him in custody. They 
were only allowed to see two other Civil Contract lawmakers detained in the 
morning.


Armenia -- Police trying to stop protestors in cars and on foot from blocking a 
road in Yerevan, .

Throughout the day the Armenian police again described the protests as 
“illegal” and threatened to disperse them. Both the United States and the 
European Union urged the authorities in Yerevan to avoid using force against 
peaceful protesters.

“We urge the government to show restraint to allow for peaceful protest and we 
urge those exercising their freedom of assembly to do so responsibly, to avoid 
violence, and to prevent an escalation of tensions,” the U.S. Embassy in 
Yerevan said in a statement. It expressed concern over “reports of violence 
against journalists and demonstrators.”

Echoing the EU’s appeals, the U.S. mission also advocated a “peaceful 
resolution” of the crisis through “meaningful political dialogue.”

First Deputy Prime Minister Karen Karapetian said it is still “not too late” to 
start such a dialogue. “I think it wouldn’t hurt if political forces gathered 
[for talks,]” he told reporters.

At the same time, Karapetian defended Pashinian’s arrest and accused the 
opposition leader of intransigence. He also dismissed Pashinian’s calls for 
fresh parliamentary elections, saying that the last legislative polls held in 
April 2017 were legitimate.

Virtually all major opposition forces, including businessman Gagik Tsarukian’s 
Prosperous Armenia Party, strongly condemned the arrest of Pashinian and other 
protest organizers and demanded their immediate release.

The Armenian National Congress (HAK) led by former President Levon 
Ter-Petrosian also voiced “unconditional support for the people fighting for 
the establishment of democracy in a peaceful and constitutional manner.”


Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
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