Author: Andranik Taslakhchian

Aug 23 2023

Azerbaijan is currently starving more than 120,000 Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh. Founding International Criminal Court Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo states that it is “reasonable to believe” Baku’s blockade constitutes genocide.

For months, the Armenian National Committee of America’s pleas to U.S. policymakers fell on deaf ears. Last week, members of the United Nations Security Council convened to read speeches to each other. Meanwhile, a 40-year-old man died of starvation in Stepanakert. Thoughts and prayers remain the order of the day. Never again becomes again and again and again.

Put simply: While the international community lacks the collective hard power, political will, and moral backbone to do anything about Baku’s blockade, America – the only state which possesses all three – is reluctant to help Yerevan and Stepanakert due to geopolitical considerations.

 

Armenia

Sandwiched between a hostile Turkey to the West and an even more aggressive Azerbaijan to the East, Armenia’s greatest allies are Russia and Iran. Yerevan is a member of key Russian-led institutions such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Instead of entering a free-trade agreement with the European Union, Armenia joined the Russia-dominated Eurasian Economic Union. Yerevan recently signed a memorandum of understanding on energy cooperation with Iran. It also acquired drones and missiles from Tehran in contravention of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.

 

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan maintains close cultural, economic, and security ties to NATO member state Turkey. Baku’s gas and oil feed Europe’s insatiable appetite for energy. Given that the “enemy of my enemy is my friend,” Azerbaijan’s disputes with Iran translate into strategic partnerships with Israel and America. Washington provides security assistance to Baku through a presidential waiver to Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act. Israel has replaced Russia as Azerbaijan’s principal supplier of weapons. The Azerbaijani army is also trained by the Turkish military. Undeterred by an abysmal human rights record, Azerbaijan remains an invaluable strategic partner for the West.   

 

The United States

The U.S. is not allied to Armenia. They maintain cordial diplomatic relations, but Washington is not legally bound to Yerevan by any bilateral or multilateral security agreements. While the U.S. owes nothing to Armenia, it has nonetheless provided billions of dollars in humanitarian aid and development assistance to Yerevan since its independence. There are urgent moral imperatives but unfortunately few strategic incentives for America to help Armenia or the Armenians of Karabakh because of Yerevan’s alliances with Tehran and Moscow, two of Washington’s sworn enemies.

At the top of America’s long list of foreign policy priorities is dealing with Russia’s genocidal invasion of Ukraine. Tehran supplies Moscow with drones and munitions that destroy Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and rain terror down on innocent and defenseless Ukrainian civilians. When Armenia isn’t serving as a corridor to traffic Iranian-made weapons to Russia, Yerevan bolsters Putin’s war chest by helping Moscow evade sanctions and export controls imposed by the West. While Armenia reaps enormous economic benefits from this arrangement, this does not evoke empathy in Washington.

Even America’s generosity has limits. Washington is unlikely to sabotage its partnership with Baku for a CSTO member state that violates U.S. law and imperils its national interest. In fact, Yerevan is lucky that Washington has yet to impose sanctions against it. Other U.S. allies, like Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, have not been as fortunate.

 

The Nagorno Karabakh dispute

The Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno Karabakh dispute centers around the separatist Republic of Artsakh, which declared independence from the Azerbaijan SSR during the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991. The international community did not recognize its independence. Neither did Armenia. Despite being occupied by Armenian soldiers and paramilitaries for almost three decades, the region is still internationally recognized as Azerbaijan’s sovereign territory. This includes by Armenia’s greatest allies: Russia and Iran.

While Armenia seeks to protect the Armenians of Artsakh, Azerbaijan is determined to regain control of Nagorno Karabakh. Given that Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, Baku has foregone another military operation and resorted to blockading the Armenians of Artsakh– a form of ethnic cleansing – to accomplish this objective. The situation is dire, and there is no Armenian-led military solution to the Nagorno Karabakh dispute that ends well for Yerevan or Stepanakert. A third full-scale war in the South Caucasus will be devastating for landlocked Armenia and even worse for the Armenians of Artsakh.

 

Solutions

Many have argued for a US-led humanitarian airlift to Nagorno Karabakh. Although possible and necessary, there are at least two issues with such an operation.

First, that responsibility is incumbent on Iran and Russia, Armenia’s allies, and should not fall on America’s shoulders. It doesn’t because both Tehran and Moscow lack the moral predilection to perform such a task. Even worse, this type of operation would be detrimental to their respective national interests. The status quo, which keeps Armenians in Stepanakert starving, Yerevan at odds with Baku and therefore within Moscow’s and Tehran’s respective geopolitical orbits, suits both Iran and Russia fine.

Second, a humanitarian airlift to Nagorno Karabakh is a band-aid for a bullet wound. Even if the Armenians of Artsakh are supplied and Baku finally ends its blockade, the root of the problem remains: Nagorno Karabakh is Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized territory occupied by both Russian “peacekeepers” and Armenian soldiers and paramilitaries without Baku’s consent. When this episode concludes, Azerbaijan will still seek to liberate its territory from the occupying militaries and reclaim its land.

Therefore, the problem to solve is determining the status of the Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh moving forward: Are they going to be citizens of Armenia, Azerbaijan, or Artsakh?

With every passing day, Armenia’s hand grows weaker while Azerbaijan’s negotiating position improves. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s rhetoric evolved from bestowing a “special status” upon the Armenians of Artsakh to “full integration” into Azeri society since the second Nagorno Karabakh War ended. Given both Baku’s human rights record and the Armenophobia prevalent in Azerbaijan, that solution is unlikely to bode well for the Armenians of Artsakh.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is aware of Azerbaijan’s strategic advantage over Armenia, understands Yerevan needs alternatives to Moscow and Tehran to prosper in the 21st century, and has sought to make deals with both Baku and Ankara. Days after stating Armenia would recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno Karabakh provided that Baku respects the rights of the Armenians of Artsahk, Pashinyan attended Turkish President Erdogan’s inauguration. These developments are small steps on the long road to peace and reconciliation.

Nevertheless, Pashinyan must go further in courting the West. In January 2023, I argued that Armenia should withdraw from the CSTO because Moscow’s strategic designs diverge from Yerevan’s national security concerns. This would enable Armenia to pursue a policy of strategic ambiguity. In other words, Yerevan could finally cooperate with whichever “great power” it sees fit on a case-by-case basis instead of limiting its military options to treaty allies like Russia and authoritarian neighbors like Iran. To say this would be perceived positively by Washington is an understatement.

None of this absolves America nor the West of their responsibility in this matter. They also have an important role to play in resolving the Nagorno Karabakh impasse. The Free World cannot claim to champion human rights while one of its partners ethnically cleanses a minority community from its territory.

The West has significant leverage with Azerbaijan. Washington consents to Jerusalem’s arms sales to Azerbaijan. It also provides security assistance to Baku through an exception to Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act. The European Union maintains lucrative energy deals with Azerbaijan. British Petroleum owns and operates many of the gas production facilities and pipelines in the country. The list goes on and on. They could easily put their money where their values are, and pressure Baku to make concessions to the Armenian minority in Nagorno Karabakh.

 

Conclusion

To be clear: Armenia has locked itself into a geopolitical alliance with Russia and Iran. This is detrimental to Armenia’s national interest and the welfare of the Armenians of Artsakh. Both of its authoritarian allies are heavily sanctioned. They do not share the same values nor long-term interests as Armenia. The status quo, which keeps the Armenians of Artsakh starving and Yerevan locked into their respective spheres of influence, suits both Iran and Russia fine.

From a geopolitical perspective, Azerbaijan checkmated Armenia years ago. It is time Yerevan read the writing on the wall, resolve the Nagorno Karabakh dispute, and make peace with Baku.

Politicians make mistakes. All humans do. But doubling down on a losing horse is compulsive gambler behavior, not a recipe for long-term success. Short-term thinking will only lead to another war. A brighter path, of peace and prosperity, is possible for those wise enough to build it.

 

George Monastiriakos is a Fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. You can read his published works on his website. 

The views expressed in this article belong to the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/why-washington-is-reluctant-to-help-armenia/

Modern Diplomacy

Aug 22 2023

On 16 August, the United Nations Security Council met to discuss the situation in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan. Armenia had requested the meeting with a hope that the world body would adopt a resolution or issue a statement aimed at exerting pressure on Azerbaijan. This has been part of wider attempts of Armenia to garner international support to its policies vis-à-vis the peace process with its neighbor, in particular, concerning the future of the Karabakh region. To the disillusionment of the Armenian side, the Security Council did not adopt any document and as such ended with no outcome expected by the initiators. This meeting and its outcome (or lack of thereof) clearly demonstrated that there are at the moment no external solutions to the local disputes between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Both sides, but primarily, the Armenian side that still hopes for an international intervention, should draw conclusions from this event.

First and foremost, it is of utmost urgency for Baku and Karabakh Armenians to start dialogue and talk to each other. The earlier attempts for such meetings have failed due to the refusal of the Armenian side to attend. It has been unclear why the representatives of the Karabakh Armenians refused to meet the Azerbaijani representatives as previously agreed in the Yevlakh city of Azerbaijan at the last moment. In a similar way, the reasons for their rejection of the internationally-supported arrangement for opening of the Agdam-Khankandi road and intensification of the passage through the Lachin road remained unclear to many observers.

This strategy of the Armenian side has been so far counterproductive and is likely to remain ineffective due to a number of reasons. Above all, the past three years since the end of the 2020 war, along with the developments along the Lachin road over the past several months, have demonstrated that the principle of territorial integrity is considered a paramount priority today. This has gained new momentum in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which constituted a flagrant violation of the latter’s territorial integrity, among other reasons, under the pretext of protecting the Russian-speaking minority. Under these circumstances, the Armenian side’s attempts to advance self-determination or remedial secession claims, with the hope of garnering international support to separate the Karabakh region from Azerbaijan’s sovereignty, are unlikely to succeed.

Baku has made it clear that it is not ready to make compromises when it comes to matters of territorial integrity and national sovereignty. The withdrawal of Armenia’s armed forces from the Karabakh region, the dissolution of the illegal armed detachments of the separatist regime, the use of the Agdam-Khankandi road for the transportation of goods to the region and the restoration of full control of Baku over this area are part of the Azerbaijani demands. President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan has recently stated his government’s plan to give municipal rights to the Armenian community of Karabakh. Thus, no autonomy or special rights are on the table.

Even though Armenia has acknowledged Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, including Karabakh as a part of it, it contradicts Baku’s efforts to consolidate its sovereignty over that region and hinders the process of reintegrating the area into Azerbaijan’s legal and economic framework. These conflicting strategies pursued by the Armenian government have resulted in a deadlock in the broader peace negotiations, and the prospects of overcoming this impasse in the near future are becoming increasingly more challenging.

Complicating the process even more, some international actors encourage the Armenian side to hold firmly on their uncompromising position. As the Security Council discussions demonstrated, France comes atop in this list. Supporting Armenia’s propaganda campaigns concerning the so-called “blockade” of the Karabakh region, France becomes part of the problem, rather than solution. Disregarding the fact that Azerbaijan offers alternative routes to transport food, medicine and other goods to the Karabakh region and Baku’s readiness to intensify the passage along the Lachin road, France and the like-minded international actors undermine the efforts to resolve the present disputes within the international law and as such within the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

Hence, it can be assumed that this support by France and others has played a significant role in the decision of the separatist regime to reject the Yevlakh meeting and the simultaneous opening of both Agdam and Lachin roads. Quite the contrary, the Security Council discussions demonstrated that the hopes of the Armenian side for an international intervention, sanctions or other forms of pressure against Azerbaijan are unrealistic. Azerbaijan’s policies concerning its own territorial integrity are based on the norms and principles of international law. Consequently, the pursuit of external solutions to the local disputes between Baku and Yerevan not only hampers the progress of the peace process but also poses the risk of undermining any remaining chance for a peace treaty in the near future.

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/08/22/there-are-no-external-solutions-to-the-local-disputes-in-karabakh/

TRT World, Turkey

Aug 21 2023

The Corridor, a critical “humanitarian” link between Armenia and the enclave of Karabakh within Azerbaijan, is the focal point of the recent escalation of tension between the neighbours, since the December 2022.

Aug 4 2023

Aug 2 2023

Local media outlets revealed that Disney Plus's decision has caused wide controversy among Turks who called to stop subscribing the platform taking into consideration the position of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founding father of the Republic of Turkey, in the hearts of Turks.

The head of the Radio and Television Supreme Council (RTÜK), Ebubekir Şahin announced that the council will be launching a probe into Disney Plus's cancellation of the Atatürk series.

"Based on the information circulating in the public that the digital media service provider, Disney+, decided not to broadcast the domestic content series 'Atatürk' on its platform, the defense of the institution will be heard, and an investigation will be initiated. Our founding father, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, is the most crucial social value of the Republic of Türkiye. Allegations of interference by the Armenian lobby, as reported in the press, are being meticulously investigated," Şahin posted.