Forecast: There will be no "big" war

ARMINFO

Armenia – Aug 3 2022
David Stepanyan

ArmInfo.The telephone conversations of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his deputy Karen Donfried with the leaders and foreign ministers of Armenia and  Azerbaijan, respectively, are evidence of a significant US activation  in the Caucasus direction.

Chairman of the board of the Democratic  Alternative Party, political scientist Suren Surenyants, expressed a  similar opinion to ArmInfo.  " I am convinced that such an intensity  of calls from Washington to Yerevan and Baku against the background  of Ukraine, now Kosovo and Taiwan is a not a coincidence. And this  indicates a high degree of US interest in the current processes  between Armenia and Azerbaijan. I think that the Americans voiced  certain proposals to Aliyev, opening up more space for him to  maneuver between Washington and Moscow," he suggested.

Against this background, according to the political scientist,  Moscow, in turn, is becoming more active.  First of all, with the aim  of making proposals to Baku in turn, and secondly, to convince  Yerevan of the need for decisions based on these proposals. Having as  a priority the blocking of American activity. In his opinion, this is  evidenced by the calls of Lavrov and Putin to Baku, following the  American ones.

According to the political scientist, real politik continues to  dictate, which is expressed in the increased role of the Russian  Federation in the South Caucasus, due to the largest arsenal in the  region. Against which the EU and even the US still play the role of  second fiddle. Accordingly, Moscow does not oppose the initiatives of  other players in this game, as long as they do not directly  contradict the Tripartite Statement of November 9, 2020. In other  words, Moscow's reaction to Blinken's and Donfried's calls to Yerevan  and Baku allows us to assume that the US is going beyond its red  lines.

"One way or another, I don't see the threat of a big war, Because I  do not see any prospects for major players to allow such a war to  Aliyev. Today, neither Russia nor the West needs war. Russia does not  want to break the status quo that it has established, and the West  does not want to jeopardize communications to the Middle East. Baku  can play on all this only by intensifying bargaining with the West  and the Russian Federation, of course, at the expense of Armenia and  Artsakh," Surenyants forecasted.

Russia confirms it was Azerbaijan who violated the ceasefire on August 1

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 21:17, 2 August 2022

YEREVAN, AUGUST 2, ARMENPRESS. During the past day, three cases of violation of the ceasefire regime by the Azerbaijani armed forces were registered in the zone of responsibility of the Russian peacekeeping troops, as a result of which a serviceman of the Armed Forces of Nagorno Karabakh was injured, ARMENPRESS informs, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has issued a message about this.

"During the past day, three cases of violation of the ceasefire regime by the Azerbaijani armed forces were registered in the zone of responsibility of the Russian peacekeeping troops, as a result of which the representative of the Armed Forces of Nagorno Karabakh was injured.

The command of the Russian peacekeepers resolved the situation together with the representatives of the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides," reads the message.




Armenpress: 44th FIDE Chess Olympiad: Armenian team beats Andorra in second round

44th FIDE Chess Olympiad: Armenian team beats Andorra in second round 

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 17:58,

YEREVAN, JULY 30, ARMENPRESS. The Armenian national team beat Andorra in the second round of the 44th FIDE Chess Olympiad underway in Chennai, India.

The Armenian team won Andorra 3:1. 

Manuel Petrosyan and Robert Hovhannisyan made victories.

In the first round the Armenian team also beat Madagascar 4:0.

ERO Los Angeles removes an Armenian with multiple prior removals

LOS ANGELES — U.S. Immigration and Custom Enforcement’s (ICE) Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) Los Angeles field office removed an Armenian citizen with two prior removals. Deportation officers transferred custody of Vigen Patatanyan, 59, to Armenian authorities at the Zvartnots International Airport in Yerevan, Armenia, without incident, May 7.

Patatanyan, who was unlawfully present, first entered the U.S. Feb. 19, 2000, at a Los Angeles airport on a nonimmigrant visa with authorization to remain in the United States for six months. An immigration judge in San Francisco ordered Patatanyan removed from the U.S. in April 2001.

Patatanyan filed a motion to reopen his case with the Board of Immigration Appeals (BIA). His motion was denied and Patatanyan was removed from the U.S. to Armenia in March 2004.

On Sept. 15, 2004, Patatanyan applied for admission into the U.S. at the Otay Mesa Port of Entry in Otay Mesa. An immigration judge in San Diego ordered the Armenian removed in February 2005. Patatanyan exercised his due process and filed another appeal with the BIA March 16, 2005. The appeal was dismissed June 20, 2005, and he was removed a second time from the U.S. to Armenia Oct. 5, 2005.

Patatanyan was again encountered by U.S. Border Patrol agents Feb. 9, 2016 in San Diego and he was referred for prosecution for illegal reentry to the U.S. The U.S. District Court, Southern District of California convicted Patatanyan of illegal entry into the U.S. on Feb. 23. On May 12, he filed a third appeal with the BIA and was denied the motion on the same day. He filed a fourth appeal to the BIA and was denied June 20, 2016.

Patatanyan filed a petition with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit and was denied Feb. 19, 2019.

ERO Los Angeles deportation officers arrested Patatanyan in the community March 29, 2022, and placed him in custody until his removal to Armenia could be completed.

Regardless of nationality, ICE makes custody determinations on a case-by-case basis, in accordance with U.S. law and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) policy.

Members of the public who have information about foreign fugitives are urged to contact ICE by calling the ICE Tip Line at 1-866-DHS-2-ICE or internationally at 001-1802-872-6199. They can also file a tip online by completing ICE’s online tip form.

 

Forecast: Brussels is unable to replace Moscow in Artsakh

ARMINFO
Armenia –
David Stepanyan

ArmInfo. In the context of the ongoing conflict between the West and Russia concentrated in Ukraine, it is impossible to make any predictions regarding the prospects for resolving the Artsakh problem. Director of the Caucasus Institute,  Alexander Iskandaryan, expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"This conflict, to put it mildly, leaves no place and, most  importantly, time for the settlement of the Karabakh conflict for  Moscow and not only for this conflict. Today, the Russian Federation  is pursuing a policy of minimizing risks for itself and maintaining  the status quo in the South Caucasus as a whole, and in Central  Asia," he said.

Commenting on the desire of the EU to become an alternative platform  for the settlement of Armenian- Azerbaijani problems, the political  scientist assessed it, in general, positively. However, at the same  time, he expressed his conviction that the EU is not capable of  replacing the Russian Federation on this international track. If only  simply because Moscow is not just an intermediary in this matter, but  also a participant in the game. Which was vividly expressed by the  sale of weapons to Armenia and Azerbaijan and the presence of Russian  troops on the territory of Armenia and Artsakh.

Taking into account the common border with Azerbaijan, the many ways  to influence Armenia, Moscow as a whole has much greater  opportunities to influence both countries than the EU, which, in his  opinion, means one thing – the European format is not able to replace  the Russian negotiating format.

"However, it would be great if Brussels somehow complements Moscow in  this regard, which will also be quite difficult, given the  contradictions between the West and Russia. Moreover, if Moscow  suddenly decides to squeeze someone out of the process, then it has  at its disposal a significantly wider toolkit than the same  Europeans," he said. 

Dr. Oz’s Turkish Nationalist Pals Living in His Secret N.J. Condo

TALKING TURKEY

Dr. Oz failed to report his ownership of a Garden State apartment, home to friends tied to groups involved in Armenian genocide denial.

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Dr. Mehmet Oz owns an undisclosed apartment in New Jersey that houses close associates of his who are linked to groups that have denied the ethnic cleansing which occurred in the formative years of the modern Turkish state.

Bergen County records show that since 2006 Oz and his wife have owned the condominium in the borough of Fairview, a seven-minute drive from their mansion overlooking the Hudson River, where the county sent the unit’s property tax bill as recently as this year. Yet this apartment is oddly absent from the otherwise exhaustive disclosure Oz made in April as a candidate for the U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.

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Candidates are not obligated to report real estate holdings that do not produce revenue—but Oz did so for his other non-revenue producing properties, including the Cliffside Park address, his new home in Pennsylvania, and his residential holdings in Turkey, where the former daytime TV host’s parents were born. It was impossible to ascertain whether Oz received rent payments from the condo, as neither he nor his tenants replied to repeated requests for comment.

What was possible to ascertain is who those tenants are: a pair of apparent longtime friends deeply involved in Turkish nationalist activism and connected to groups that have fought to prevent the United States from recognizing the extermination of Armenians on Turkish territory during World War I—which Oz himself has refused to describe as a genocide, despite a consensus among respected historians.

Documents filed with the New York State Charities Bureau show that Necmiye Kacaroglu reported the condominium as her personal address last year when she co-founded a nonprofit called Ataturk’s Heritage—named for Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the controversial founder of the modern Turkish nation. New Jersey voter records show that her husband has used the condo as his address since at least 2014, and the legal search engine LexisNexis places both them and their adult children at this location.

Besides multiple photographs of herself and her husband with the Oz family at private and public events, Kacaroglu’s Facebook page is filled with images of Ataturk.

Ataturk was a top army officer when Ottoman imperial authorities slaughtered and expelled upwards of a million ethnic Armenians from Asia Minor. The first president of the Republic of Turkey inaugurated the country’s long policy of downplaying the atrocities and blaming them on the Armenians themselves, whom Ataturk and his associates cast as a dangerous fifth column who abetted the Allies.

A portrait of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of modern Turkey.

As a military leader and as head of the new nation, Ataturk also participated in the elimination of Turkey’s ethnic Greek minority. His success in establishing a cult of personality and a new ethno-state in defiance of Western powers later made him a hero to Nazi officials, with Adolf Hitler keeping a bust of the Turkish despot and referring to him as his “shining star.”

On her own social media, Kacaroglu has personally repeated many of the Turkish government’s lines, blaming Armenians for the killing of Turkish soldiers by British troops in World War I and sharing articles complaining about Armenian demands for Turkish recognition of the war crimes committed against them

Among the photos of herself and the Oz family are shots from the 2018 gala of the American Turkish Society. This group has long shied away from public statements on the systematic killing and deportation of Armenians, and with regards to the only recently successful efforts to get the U.S. government to recognize these crimes as a genocide. However, the society’s longtime leader, record executive Ahmet Ertegun, controversially sponsored academics who promoted the Turkish government’s version of events and refused to publicly describe the massacres as a genocide—even though, before his death, he reportedly admitted as much in private. The American Turkish Society did not respond to requests for comment.

Mehmet Oz.

Kacaroglu is also a longtime member and a recent candidate for the presidency of the Amerika Türk Kadınlar Birliği, or Turkish Women’s League of America. This New York-based group is one of the component organizations of the Assembly of Turkish American Associations. The ATAA formed in the late 1970s, reportedly at the behest of the then-Turkish ambassador, to counter the perceived Armenian influence on American policy. The ATAA is today one of the country’s leading Armenian genocide denial groups, having led lawsuits and pressure campaigns to prevent U.S. schools from instructing about the atrocities. Its webpage features a prominent tab labeled “Armenian Issue,” which links to numerous pages attacking Armenians and denying the extent of the killings and Turkish culpability.

Social media posts also show the league maintains close ties with the Turkish consulate and diplomatic corps, and Kacaroglu’s page includes photos and videos of her participating in League events at the Manhattan outpost.

However, a spokesperson for the group asserted that the league had canceled Kacaroglu’s membership after her bid to become its president failed. They acknowledged the league’s affiliation and dues payments to ATAA, but maintained the league is a cultural and linguistic organization, “not a politics group.” However, the spokesperson added that they personally do not believe the Armenian genocide occurred.

The social-media pages of Kacaroglu’s husband and son are also rife with Turkish nationalist imagery, allusions to Ataturk, and posts supporting her activism. And it’s not just Facebook photos that attest to the families’ closeness: Oz’s wife has acknowledged the Kacaroglus in two of her books, thanking them in one note for “holding down the home front.”

Among the queries Oz and Kacaroglu failed to respond to was whether he had ever donated money to any of the Turkish nationalist groups in which she is associated, or supported those organizations in any other way.

Candidates who deliberately do not report a source of income in their disclosures are subject to a $50,000 fine and further civil penalties, good government advocates said.

“The voters have the right to know the financial interests of the people they are going to entrust with power,” said Delaney Marsco, senior legal counsel for ethics at the nonprofit Campaign Legal Center. "When candidates and public civil servants withhold that information, it does a lot of harm to the public trust.”

Mehmet Oz.

However, if Oz is simply allowing them to stay in the residence free of charge, Marsco said he would have violated no rules and would face no consequences. But it is unclear why he reported his New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Turkish homes while excluding the Fairview condo.

Oz’s recent conversion to Pennsylvania resident has dogged him since he launched his campaign. He only registered to vote in the state he aspires to represent in 2020, having been a New Jersey resident for the two decades prior. He’s been criticized for allegedly filming campaign videos for his Pennsylvania Senate run from his New Jersey mansion. His latest FEC report showed stops for gas in Princeton, New Jersey, four times over the past quarter. Like many New Jerseyans, he’s a devout New York Yankees fan, once calling his New York Yankees cap his “sartorial essential.”

And Oz’s Cliffside Park, New Jersey, mansion’s address appears in late 2021 on multiple campaign donation forms: one giving $5,800 to Team Herschel Inc. in support of Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker, and two for a total donation of $5,800 to New Jersey Republican House candidate Tom Kean Jr.

The out-of-state ties have been a talking point for his Democratic opponent, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who’s crafted memes, shitposts and even a video from Jersey Shore personality Snooki (a.k.a. Nicole Polizzi) to troll the former television host on his new Pennsylvania residency.

Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman.

Oz’s relationship to Turkey has become almost as awkward as his history in New Jersey. Oz once proudly highlighted his Turkish heritage and his affinity for his parents’ native land, where he holds citizenship, served in the military, and even voted in recent elections.

Conservative critics have attacked his ties to his parents’ homeland, while Armenian groups have argued his work for the partially state-owned Turkish Airlines marks him as a foreign agent—an argument his campaign has labeled “ridiculous.” The surgeon-turned-supplement pitchman has promised to relinquish his Turkish citizenship if elected to replace retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) this November.

HayPost CEO Hayk Karapetyan resigns

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 12:10,

YEREVAN, JULY 25, ARMENPRESS. HayPost CEO Hayk Karapetyan announced his resignation.

In a letter published on social media, Karapetyan said he assumed the position two years ago to implement the digital transformation of the postal operator. 

He said that over the course of his tenure his team realized “huge changes in digital transformation, staffing, financial, tariff, commercial, service, post exchange modernization and international directions.”

Karapetyan added that he believes that this phase of the transformation is completed and therefore he is resigning.

He thanked for the trust and expressed gratitude to his team for working round-the-clock.

Protest action in defense of political prisoners in Yerevan

ARMINFO
Armenia – July 19 2022
Alexandr Avanesov

ArmInfo. A protest action in defense of political prisoners is taking place in front of the U.N. Armenia Office. 

The protesters – Resistance Movement members and other citizens -  also plan to hold a protest in front of the RA Government in memory  of the producer Armen Grigoryan, who died in the courtroom. 

Sevak Nazaryan, a member of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation  Dashnaktsutyun (ARFD), said that political prisoners number 50 in  Armenia. Among them are citizens that have not remained silent and  raised problems of national importance, as well Resistance Movement  members that stood against the Turkification of the country and  Armenians' exodus from Artsakh. 

"They are struggling for their Homeland and national state. Each of  us could become a political prisoner because each of us is doing what  they did and for what they have been imprisoned," Mr Nazaryan said.

"If the so-called international community properly perceived what is  going on in Armenia, political prisoners would not die in the  courtroom in this country," Mr Nazaryan said. 

This is evidence that thee incumbent authorities are ready for new  deaths every day only to retain power.  And they are becoming more  and more impudent as they do not see adequate reactions by the  international community, he said.    

Turkish press: Fundraising campaigns for purchase of Türkiye’s Bayraktar TB2 drone spreading in West

Muhammet Tarhan   |22.07.2022

ANKARA 

Donation campaigns launched for the purchase of Türkiye's Bayraktar TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicles to support the Ukrainian army and people amid war are increasing in many countries, especially in Europe.

Several campaigns have been launched in Lithuania, Norway, Poland and Canada, as well as in Ukraine, to purchase Bayraktar TB2, produced by Turkish drone maker Baykar, for Ukraine as its war with Russia has continued since its start on Feb. 24.

Volunteers are participating in the campaigns by donating various amounts of money to show solidarity with the Ukrainian people.

Influenced by campaigns, Baykar donates 4 combat drones

The donation campaign organized by the Ukrainian people in June under the name of "People's Bayraktar" was completed successfully.

Affected by the Ukrainians’ solidarity, Baykar donated three Bayraktar T2 drones, which were aimed to be purchased with the donations collected, to Ukraine without any charge.

Over $6M collected in 3 days in Lithuania

In the campaign organized by the Lithuanian people to buy a Bayraktar TB2 drone for Ukraine, €6 million ($6.11 million) were collected in just three days. Affected by the campaign, Baykar donated the combat drone to Lithuania free of charge on July 6 to contribute to the solidarity of Lithuanians.

The campaign "Give a Bayraktar from the Norwegians to the Ukrainian people" was launched in Norway for the same purpose to collect 55 million crowns ($5.5 million).

The campaign launched in Ukraine's neighbor Poland to reach the target of 22.5 million Polish zlotych ($5 million) for the same purpose continues.

Campaigns in Europe inspire Canada as well

The donation campaigns held for the donation of Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ukraine inspired Ukrainians in Canada as well.

The campaign, launched by the Toronto-based humanitarian aid organization UhelpUkraine in Canada, aims to collect 7 million Canadian dollars ($5.4 million).

The combat drone, which will be purchased if the campaign achieves to collect money needed, is aimed to be delivered to the Ukrainian army on Aug. 24, Ukraine's Independence Day.

Canada suspends sale of armed drone parts to Türkiye

In October 2020, the Canadian government suspended the sale of electro-optical and infrared camera systems sold to Türkiye as armed uncrewed aerial vehicle equipment, citing the use of Turkish combat drones in operations against the Armenian army in Nagorno-Karabakh.

In April 2021, the Canadian administration announced that it had canceled the "military export permits" for Türkiye.

Norway also announced that after the start of Türkiye’s anti-terror offensive in Syria, Operation Peace Spring, in 2019, it suspended all new arms sales to Ankara and it would review all previously granted licenses for arms exports.