At long last, peace might be possible between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Here’s what’s needed.

Washington Post


By Anna Ohanyan March 20 at 5:00 AM

After decades of ethnic conflict, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are preparing to meet to try to resolve their long-term clash over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Observers have many reasons to be skeptical that yet another one-off meeting will lead to a thaw at long last.

However, something significant has changed since the last such push. A year ago, Armenian protesters brought down a prime minister, leading to free elections last December. Some evidence suggests that democratic societies are more likely to seek peace with their neighbors — and are most likely to achieve it if civil society groups are allowed to reach out and form contacts across borders before the formal negotiations.

Here’s what you need to know about what has happened, and what comes next.

1. A brief history of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Between Armenia and Azerbaijan lies a contested territory controlled by an unrecognized state called the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR), which is supported, but not recognized, by the Armenian government — and is claimed by Azerbaijan.

In 1921, the Soviet Union joined this Armenian-majority highland enclave with Soviet-controlled Azerbaijan, separating the Armenians as part of Stalin’s divide-and-conquer strategies. In the late 1980s, as Moscow loosened its controls over the Soviet empire under perestroika, ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh began campaigning to rejoin Armenia, agitating for democracy, human rights and self-rule — one of the early cracks that brought down the Soviet Union.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, the people of Nagorno-Karabakh formally voted to secede from Azerbaijan — prompting armed conflict between Armenia and the Armenian-majority population on one hand and Azerbaijan on the other. In 1994, after 30,000 people on both sides had died and more than 1 million refugees fled the violence, the two countries signed a shaky cease-fire agreement. Observers consider the standoff to be neither war nor peace, and it simmers with low but persistent levels of violence at the border.

2. The democratic wave in Armenia

Last April, Armenia’s parliamentary opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan led a mass nonviolent civil disobedience campaign that forced the prime minister to resign. For decades, Armenia had been “a soft authoritarian state in which the ruling elite … closely controlled political and economic opportunities,” as political scientists Mariam Matevosyan and Graeme Robertson explained here at TMC a year ago. By December, the protesters had forced free elections that put Pashinyan and his pro-democracy party in power. As I’ll explain below, that gave observers some hope that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict could be resolved.

In recent months, the OSCE Minsk Group, co-chaired by the United States, Russia and France, has mediated diplomatic efforts between the two sides. Armenia and Azerbaijan had been accusing each other of frequently violating the cease-fire with shootings, mortar attacks and use of other heavy weaponry that kills and wounds soldiers and civilians alike. Such attacks have ceased since Armenia’s democratic transition last year.

The global track record of this type of single-shot peace agreement sought by the OSCE Minsk Group has been mixed, as has the efficacy of external peace negotiators. Russia, one of the mediating parties, has continued to sell weapons to both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has continued to threaten war and economic isolation to try to force negotiating concessions. And Armenia has continued to insist that it will not withdraw from the seven disputed districts it controls around Nagorno-Karabakh.

Past diplomatic rounds were followed by only temporary thaws. Many analysts and peace advocates remain skeptical about this most recent diplomatic opening, too.

3. Here’s what may now be different

Armenia’s democratic breakthrough may have shifted leaders’ incentives on both sides. Now two countries in the region, Armenia and Georgia, its neighbor to the north, embrace democracy.

Recent studies suggest that when a region has more democracies, the probability of conflict and aggression tends to go down. Democratic societies favor peaceful interactions with their neighbors. They tend to advance cooperation and compromise in their regions. And democratic societies are more likely to support one another’s shared goals of human rights and economic interests in bigger markets. That weakens support for military “solutions” to conflicts.

But that’s not enough by itself. Research also suggests that peace agreements are more likely to be implemented if all parties involved in a conflict are included in the peace process. What’s needed now are ways to engage the groups most affected by the conflict: rural communities near the conflict lines, women, refugees and Nagorno-Karabakh itself, all of which have been left out of negotiations over the years. Studies have shown that single-shot, top-down peace deals often fail — unless the parties simultaneously build broad-based connections among societies.

Of course, calling for contacts between people while militaries continue patrolling the borders, and without regionwide security guarantees, is unrealistic. All affected parties in the region — including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Nagorno-Karabakh itself, nongovernmental organizations, civil-society groups and others need to be involved in crafting broader regional security agreements and institutions. Regional security structures that incorporate all such interests are necessary to support and enable a sustainable peace agreement. Otherwise, connections across conflict lines will remain shallow and limited, and formal peace agreements between governments short-lived.

Such regional security can take the form of regionwide rules, treaties, pacts or issue-focused organizations. They can enable community leaders to work together on shared problems — such as drug trafficking, rural poverty, distorted trade routes, water cooperation or preserving cultural heritage sites — across conflict lines.

Building such connections in the region can help shift diplomacy away from short-term concessions and focus it instead on longer-term, regionwide issues of bread-and-butter governance. Such multilateral forums can dilute the rivalry between Armenia and Azerbaijan, helping various social groups build trust and connections across conflict lines — before international mediators and governing elites ask their people for concessions. Regionwide security guarantees can clarify and affirm nonviolence as a foundational principle for the region, and create the political stability needed to enable deeper diplomacy around the conflict itself.

Anna Ohanyan is Richard B. Finnegan Distinguished Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Stonehill College, editor of “Russia Abroad: Driving Regional Fracture in Post-Communist Eurasia and Beyond” (Georgetown University Press, 2018), and author of “Networked Regionalism as Conflict Management” (Stanford University Press, 2015).

Women are “strong agents of change for peace and security” – Armenian FM

Women are “strong agents of change for peace and security” – Armenian FM

Save

Share

17:18, 15 March, 2019

YEREVAN, MARCH 15, ARMENPRESS. Foreign minister of Armenia Zohrab Mnatsakanyan delivered remarks at the Panel Discussion on Women, Peace and Security: International and Armenian Practice.

ARMENPRESS presents the full text of his speech:

“Dear Ms. Hutchinson,

Excellences,

Ladies and gentlemen,

Mr. Sharp,

Dear colleagues,

On this final day of the NATO week in Armenia I express my gratitude to our partner Embassies, my colleagues from the Foreign Ministry and other governmental agencies for their contribution to the series of events of the NATO week.

Likewise, I would like to welcome Ms. Clare Hutchinson, NATO SG Special Representative for Women, Peace and Security and thank her for the participation in this discussion.

In recent years, we have successfully continued our mutually beneficial partnership with NATO. Today we have a solid agenda of cooperation with the Alliance – the main vehicle of it being Armenia-NATO Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) – including the fulfillment of commitments on implementation of the UNSCR 1325. 

Next year, we will mark the twentieth anniversary of the adoption of resolution 1325 (2000). Regretfully, since then the world has not become more secure, in many places people continue to face the reality where violence, discrimination and hate prevail. 

It is our firm conviction that women are “strong agents of change for peace and security” and that peace and security efforts are more sustainable when women are equal partners in the prevention of violent conflicts, the delivery of relief and recovery efforts, as well as in contributing to the lasting and durable settlements.

Thus, ensuring their solid participation in the resolution of conflicts is not merely an exercise of gender equality, it is an instrument enhancing the chances of peace and development.

I would like to recall in this regard the recently inaugurated “Women for Peace” campaign, which aims to be an inclusive platform for women and mothers to promote peace and reconciliation in the conflict torn areas in our region and beyond. This is an illustrative example of the participation of women in the peace building efforts.  

The lead-up to this 20th anniversary provides a suitable opportunity to assess the progress and identify the further steps.

In February of this year, our Government approved the 1st National Action Plan on implementation of the UNSCR 1325 on Women, Peace and Security. Armenia became the 80th UN member state to have adopted NAP. 

Before the adoption of the National Action Plan Armenian Government and the civil society, each in their own way, have been taking action towards implementation of the resolution 1325. However, it was not a duty-coordinated activity.

The elaboration of the NAP was a year-long exercise engaging Government agencies, civil society and international organizations. As a result, we have a comprehensive, coherent and coordinated policy paper with the central role of the State as the primary responsibility barer for the advancement of women, peace and security agenda. 

It takes into account the situation on the ground with a view to accelerating political participation and economic empowerment of women in the context of peacebuilding, conflict-prevention and conflict resolution. Particular focus has been given to vulnerable population groups, including women from border communities, women affected by conflict, women displaced or under risk of displacement.

Implementation of the resolution 1325 in the overall context of promoting women's rights which relates to Government priorities to ensure equality of its citizens before the law and create equal opportunities in economic and social life.  These priorities square firmly in achieving Sustainable Development Goal 5, where the commitments related to women, peace and security tiding to increasing their participation in public life, at local, national and regional levels.

With the aim to increase the political representation of women, more effective quota for women representation has been prescribed by Electoral Code (25 percent representation of women in elective bodies instead of the previous 20 percent). At the same time, a gradual approach has been stipulated, and higher quota has been prescribed for next elections bringing it up to a level 30 percent.

We need to take innovative, gender-sensitive approaches, with a view to address root causes and risk factors that hamper the participation of women and create conditions that put an effective end to such malpractices.

This discussion is indeed very timely for the Armenian public allowing once again to focus on the important link between the empowerment of women and the sustainability of peace and development, both at national, regional and international levels. And this is an ongoing challenge for all of us, in this country and in this region. That is why I want to renew my appeal to collective, responsible and resolute action on advancing this agenda on Women, Peace and Security.

Thank you very much. I wish all of you, and all of us productive discussion”.

President Sarkissian sends condolence message to Ethiopian President

President Sarkissian sends condolence message to Ethiopian President

Save

Share

18:52,

YEREVAN, MARCH 12, ARMENPRESS. President of Armenia Armen Sarkissian sent a condolence message to Sahle-Work Zewde, President of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia on the occasion of the airplane crash at the airport of Addis Ababa. As ARMENPRESS was informed from the press service of the Armenian President’s Office, the message runs as follows,

“I learned about the crash of the plane flying from Addis Ababa to Nairobi on March 10 with great sorrow.

 At this difficult moment I express my deepest condolences and sympathies and wish the families and friends of the victims strength and patience”.

Edited and translated by Tigran Sirekanyan




Ambassador Karen Grigoryan delivers credentials to President of Egypt

Ambassador Karen Grigoryan delivers credentials to President of Egypt

Save

Share

19:08,

YEREVAN, MARCH 12, ARMENPRESS. Ambassador of Armenia to Egypt Karen Grigoryan delivered his credentials to President of Egypt Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on March 12.

As ARMENPRESS was informed from the press service of the MFA Armenia, during the brief conversation Ambassador Grigoryan conveyed the greetings and best wishes of Armenian President Armen Sarkissian to Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, as well as his readiness to host him in Armenia.

Congratulating the Armenian Ambassador on delivering the credentials, Egypt’s President highly assessed the historically friendly relations between Armenia and Egypt and wished Ambassador Grigoryan success in his mission.

The Armenian Ambassador thanked President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi for his readiness to develop the relations between Armenia and Egypt.

Edited and translated by Tigran Sirekanyan




Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group issued a statement on the upcoming meeting of Prime Minister Pashinyan and President Aliyev

Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group issued a statement on the upcoming meeting of Prime Minister Pashinyan and President Aliyev

Save

Share

14:55, 9 March, 2019

YEREVAN, MARCH 9, ARMENPRESS. Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (Igor Popov of the Russian Federation, Stephane Visconti of France and Andrew Schofer of the United States of America) issued a statement on the upcoming meeting of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Press service of the OSCE informed Armenpress that the statement runs as follows:

"In their March 1 statement, the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (Igor Popov of the Russian Federation, Stephane Visconti of France and Andrew Schofer of the United States of America) welcomed the commitment of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to meet soon under the auspices of the Co-Chairs. The Co-Chairs, working closely with the two foreign ministers, have been making preparations for this important leaders’ meeting, which will be the first direct contact between the two leaders conducted under Co-Chair auspices.

The Co-Chairs underline the importance of maintaining an environment conducive to productive discussions and continue to assess positively the recent lack of casualties on the front lines. The Co-Chairs also welcome some initial steps being taken in the region to prepare the populations for peace and encourage the sides to intensify such efforts. At the same time, the Co-Chairs reiterate the critical importance of reducing tensions and minimizing inflammatory rhetoric. In this context, the Co-Chairs urge the sides to refrain from statements and actions suggesting significant changes to the situation on the ground, prejudging the outcome of or setting conditions for future talks, demanding unilateral changes to the format without agreement of the other party, or indicating readiness to renew active hostilities.

With reference to some contradictory recent public statements on the substance of the Minsk Group process, the Co-Chairs reiterate that a fair and lasting settlement must be based on the core principles of the Helsinki Final Act, including in particular the non-use or threat of force, territorial integrity, and the equal rights and self-determination of peoples.  It also should embrace additional elements as proposed by the Presidents of the Co-Chair countries in 2009-2012, including: return of the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani control; an interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh providing guarantees for security and self-governance; a corridor linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh; future determination of the final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh through a legally binding _expression_ of will; the right of all internally displaced persons and refugees to return to their former places of residence; and international security guarantees that would include a peacekeeping operation.

The Co-Chairs stress their view that these principles and elements must be the foundation of any fair and lasting settlement to the conflict and should be conceived as an integrated whole.  Any attempt to put some principles or elements over others would make it impossible to achieve a balanced solution. 

The Co-Chairs are prepared to meet with the leaders and foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan at any time, and call on the leaders to resume negotiations in good faith at the earliest opportunity.  Continuous and direct dialogue between Baku and Yerevan conducted under the auspices of the Co-Chairs remains an essential element in building confidence and advancing the peace process.  The Co-Chairs will also continue to discuss, as appropriate, relevant issues with the interested parties directly affected by the conflict, recognizing that their views and concerns must be taken into account for any negotiated solution to succeed. 

The Co-Chairs stress that they remain fully committed, in accordance with their mandate, to helping the sides find a peaceful solution to the conflict. The Co-Chairs also express their full support for the impartial and critical monitoring work undertaken by the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office and his team".

Burkina Faso ambassador presents credentials to Armenia President

News.am, Armenia
Feb 26 2019
Burkina Faso ambassador presents credentials to Armenia President Burkina Faso ambassador presents credentials to Armenia President

14:29, 26.02.2019
                  

The newly appointed Ambassador of Burkina Faso Antoine Somdah handed his credentials to Armenian President Armen Sarkissian.

According to President, Armenia attaches great importance to the development of relations with the countries of the African continent and the activation of the steps in that direction.

The sides spoke about the possibilities of developing cooperation, highlighting the formation of the respective legal framework.

Azerbaijani Press: Azerbaijan destroys Armenian UAV

AzerNews, Azerbaijan
Feb 21 2019

By  Trend

During the activities of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs during their visit to Azerbaijan, the Armenian side resorted to another provocation, Trend reports referring to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry Feb. 21.

On Feb. 21 in the afternoon, the armed forces of Armenia, using the tactical unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) "X-55", attempted to carry out a reconnaissance flight over the positions of the units of Azerbaijan Army in the direction of the Agdam district of the front.

The enemy’s UAV was immediately detected and neutralized by the Air Defense units of the Air Force of Azerbaijan.

Central Bank of Armenia: exchange rates and prices of precious metals – 20-02-19

Central Bank of Armenia: exchange rates and prices of precious metals – 20-02-19

Save

Share

17:54,

YEREVAN, 20 FEBUARY, ARMENPRESS. The Central Bank of Armenia informs “Armenpress” that today, 20 February, USD exchange rate up by 0.09 drams to 487.59 drams. EUR exchange rate up by 2.15 drams to 553.22 drams. Russian Ruble exchange rate up by 0.05 drams to 7.41 drams. GBP exchange rate up by 5.82 drams to 635.72 drams.

The Central Bank has set the following prices for precious metals.

Gold price up by 139.43 drams to 20914.64 drams. Silver price up by 0.28 drams to 247.37 drams. Platinum price up by 49.36 drams to 12713.54 drams.

Armenia may purchase up to 16 Su-30SM fighters from Russia – Defense Ministry

Interfax – Russia & CIS Military Newswire
February 19, 2019 Tuesday 6:40 PM MSK


Armenia may purchase up to 16 Su-30SM fighters from Russia – Defense Ministry

YEREVAN. Feb 19

The Armenian Defense Ministry has not ruled out the possibility of purchasing 16 Sukhoi Su-30SM multi-role fighter aircraft from Russia.

"I cannot name the exact figures. The defense minister also did not provide the exact figures, did not say that Armenia is intending to buy just 12 aircraft. That is a minimal amount we considering. It is a squadron. It could consist of ten, 12 or 16 aircraft. It's difficult to name the exact figures, but we can't rule anything out," Armenian Defense Ministry spokesperson Artsrun Hovhannisyan told Radio Liberty's Armenian-language service on Tuesday.

When asked whether the jet fighters are being purchased through the 100-million-dollar defense loan provided by Russia, Hovhannisyan replied that Armenia is purchasing military equipment using not only the loan.

"It would be wrong if I let it be known what equipment is being purchased with what funds. But, in general, military equipment is being purchased not only through the loan, but also at our expense," the Armenian Defense Ministry spokesperson said.

Armenian Defense Minister Davit Tonoyan said earlier that Armenia does not plan on limiting itself to purchasing four Su-30SM multi-role jet fighters from Russia.

"We will not limit ourselves to four jet fighters," Tonoyan told reporters on February 13.

"The four planes have yet to be delivered to Armenia, and they will be in due course," he said.