Author: Antonian Lara

ARMENIAN ROLE IN CAUCASIAN ENERGY CORRIDOR IN COMMON INTEREST – ANALYST
Aliyah Fridman

news.az
Feb 3 2010
Azerbaijan

Jeffrey Mankoff News.Az interviews Jeffrey Mankoff, associate director
of international security studies, Yale University.

Do you think that the main mediators – Russia and the USA – are really
interested in a Karabakh settlement?

Yes, because it is broadly speaking in both of their interests. Russia
would like to end Armenia’s diplomatic isolation, and everyone
is interested on some level in the idea of including Armenia in a
Caucasian energy corridor.

And what about Turkey’s activity in the region? May Ankara be
successful in establishing peace in the South Caucasus?

It will be a challenge. As long as the 1915 issue remains unresolved,
many Armenians (not to mention the Armenian diaspora) will oppose
any settlement brokered by Ankara.

Do you think the Turkish and Armenian parliaments will ratify the
two protocols soon?

The Armenian parliament is already wary of the government’s interest
in a deal with Turkey, and might well block ratification of any
agreement. At the same time, the Azerbaijanis are wary of having their
claim to Nagorno-Karabakh sold out as the price for a resolution
between Turkey and Armenia. So there are plenty of obstacles along
the way.

HEARINGS AT THE SENATE

Lragir.am
3/02/10

The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence held an open hearing on 2
February 2010, entitled "Current and Projected Threats to the United
States," as the latest in an annual series of hearings examining US
national security issues.

The attached is the testimony of Dennis C. Blair, the Director of
National Intelligence (DNI) before the Senate Committee.

The US House of Representatives’ Permanent Select Committee on
Intelligence also held its own hearing, entitled "Annual Threats
Assessment" on 3 February 2010. I will forward the testimony from
the House hearing once it is available.

As FYI, the following are select highlights, with comments on Eurasia,
Armenia-Turkey, Azerbaijan, Karabagh, Russia, Ukraine and Central Asia,
although it is interesting that there was no reference or commentary
on Turkey:

In a subsection named "Potential Flashpoints in Eurasia and Balkans,"
DNI Blair stated that: "The unresolved conflicts of the Caucasus
provide the most likely flashpoints in the Eurasia region. Moscow’s
expanded military presence in and political-economic ties to Georgia’s
separatist regions of South Ossetia and sporadic low-level violence
increase the risk of miscalculation or overreaction leading to renewed
fighting." (Pages 37-38 of Senate testimony)

Regarding Armenia-Turkey, Azerbaijan and Karabagh, Blair added
that "although there has been progress in the past year toward
Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, this has affected the delicate
relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and increases the risk
of a renewed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh." (Page 38 of Senate
testimony)

In another subsection entitled "Outlook for Russia," DNI Blair stated:

"The role Moscow plays regarding issues of interest to the United
States is likely to turn on many factors, including developments on
Russia’s periphery and the degree to which Russia perceives US policies
as threatening to what its leadership sees as vital Russian interests.

There have been encouraging signs in the past year that Russia is
prepared to be more cooperative with the United States, as illustrated
by President Medvedev’s agreement last summer to support air transit
through Russia of lethal military cargo in support of coalition
operations in Afghanistan and Moscow’s willingness to engage
with the United States on constructive ways to reduce the nuclear
threat from Iran. I remain concerned, however, that Russia looks
at relations with its neighbors in the former Soviet space-an area
characterized by President Medvedev as Russia’s "zone of privileged
interests"-largely in zero-sum terms, vis a vis the United States,
potentially undermining the US-Russian bilateral relationship. Moscow,
moreover, has made it clear it expects to be consulted closely on
missile defense plans and other European security issues.

On the domestic front, Moscow faces tough policy choices in the face
of an uptick in violence in the past year in the chronically volatile
North Caucasus, which is fueled in part by a continuing insurgency,
corruption, organized crime, clan competition, endemic poverty,
radical Islamist penetration, and a lagging economy that is just
beginning to recover from the global economic crisis. Some of the
violence elsewhere in Russia, such as a deadly train bombing in late
November 2009, may be related to instability in the North Caucasus."

(Page 29 of Senate testimony)

DNI Blair went on to comment on Russia’s "Military Picture," adding
that "in the conventional forces realm, Moscow remains capable of
militarily dominating the former Soviet space; although Russia’s
experience in the August 2008 Georgia conflict revealed major
shortcomings in the Russian military, it also validated previous
reform efforts that sought to develop rapidly-deployable forces
for use on its periphery. Russia continues to use its military in
an effort to assert its great power status and to project power
abroad, including through the use of heavy bomber aviation patrols,
out-of-area naval deployments, and joint exercises; some of these
activities can have greater demonstrative impact than operational
military significance." (Page 30 of Senate testimony)

Regarding Ukraine, DNI Blair stated: "Economic crisis and political
competition among top Ukrainian leaders pose the greatest risk of
instability in Ukraine, particularly in connection with this year’s
presidential election. Competition between President Yushchenko and his
primary rivals, Prime Minister Tymoshenko and Party of Regions leader
Yanukovych resulted in economic reform being put on the back burner
and complicated relations with Russia over gas payments. Moreover,
noncompliance with the conditions set by international financial
institutions has put the country’s economy in further jeopardy." (Page
38 of Senate testimony)

And regarding Central Asia, he commented that: "The regimes of
Central Asia-Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and
Turkmenistan-have been generally stable so far, but predicting how
long this will remain the case is difficult. The region’s autocratic
leadership, highly personalized politics, weak institutions, and
social inequality make predicting succession politics difficult and
increase the possibility that the process could lead to violence or an
increase in anti-US sentiment. There is also concern about the ability
of these states, especially Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan,
to manage the challenges if Islamic extremism spreads to the region
from Pakistan and Afghanistan. The risks are compounded by the economic
crisis, which has resulted in reduced remittances to the region,
and by perennial food and energy shortages in some parts of Central
Asia. Competition over water, cultivable land, and ethnic tensions
could serve as sparks for conflict." (Page 38 of Senate testimony)

DNI Blair offers a conclusion that stated: "A year ago the
deteriorating global economy threatened to trigger widespread political
instability. I am happy to report that, while the recovery remains
tenuous, the past economic clouds darkening the whole strategic
outlook have partially lifted. Despite the myriad uncertainties and
continuing challenges, the economic and political picture we are
facing today could have been far worse if the economic free fall
had not been stopped. As I indicated last year, the international
security environment is complex. No dominant adversary faces the United
States that threatens our existence with military force. Rather, the
complexity of the issues and multiplicity of actors-both state and
non state-increasingly constitutes one of our biggest challenges. We
in the Intelligence Community are seeking to understand and master the
complexity and interlocking ties between issues and actors and in doing
so believe we can help protect vital US interests in close cooperation
with other civilian and military members of the US Government." (Pages
45-46 of Senate testimony)

COORDINATOR OF ARMENIAN NATIONAL CONGRESS: IN ARMENIA AUTHORITIES ARE FIGHTING AGAINST THEIR OWN PEOPLE

ArmInfo
2010-02-03 08:53:00

In Armenian the authorities are fighting against their own people,
said Coordinator of the Armenian National Congress (ANC) Levon Zurabyan
at today’s press-conference.

Commenting on the statement of Leader of National Accord Party Aram
Haroutyunyan that the rating of Nikol Pashinyan (editor of Haykakan
Zhamanak daily convicted for being privy to 1 March 2008 events)
is higher that that of Levon Ter-Petrossyan, the first president of
Armenia, Levon Zurabyan stressed: "Today everybody in the Armenian
National Congress is a soldier – starting from the leader and
finishing with the activist sticking the leaflets". According to the
oppositionist, the situation in the country creates an impression of
a war of the authorities against their own people.

However, despite the existing difficulties, Zurabyan pointed out the
ANC achievement after 1 March 2008 as well, particularly, the release
of most of the political prisoners and the ANC participation in the
election to the Council of Aldermen which confirmed the role of ANC
as the leading oppositional force.

GEORGIA-ARMENIA RELATIONS HAVE REACHED AN ALL-TIME LOW: ZURABYAN

Tert.am
17:25 ~U 02.02.10

The policy adopted by Armenian authorities has had serious impacts on
relations with Georgia, said Armenian National Congress Coordinator
Levon Zurabyan at a press conference today.

"The Georgian President violated a more than 15-year old tradition when
he declared that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue should be resolved within
Azerbaijani’s territorial integrity. He also deems it positive that
Turkey holds consultations with Azerbaijan over the Armenian-Turkish
reconciliation process.

"This unprecedented, better to say, contemptuous statements did not
get a reaction; such a low-level atmosphere of mutual trust left its
imprint on the results of the recent visit by Georgian Prime Minister
[Nika Gilauri] to Armenia," said Zurabyan.

In his words, no serious agreement was reached during this visit and
it could be stated that the Yerevan-Batumi roadway project, which is
"promoted by authorities’ propaganda" has failed.

"Nor was the issue of Armenian teachers who should come and improve
their qualifications in Armenia solved. There is not a single joint
initiative in [Samtskhe]-Javakheti. The status of Armenian church has
not been regulated either. We have never had such poor relations with
Georgia," Zurabyan included.

Davutoglu Explains Why Clinton Seemed Indifferent to Turkey’s Concerns

Tert.am
11:28 – 30.01.10
y

Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoglu told journalists
yesterday that, in London, the Turkish and American sides had
point-by-point discussed the Armenian Constitutional Court’s ruling.
As for the indifference the U.S. expressed towards Turkey’s concerns
on the court ruling, Davutoglu explained it this way:

`For them, the important thing is continuing the process, but we place
importance on its healthy continuation. There can be differences of
opinion. However, I think that now they understand better.’

Davutoglu also turned his attention to the possibility of Ankara
putting a halt to the process of establishing Armenia-Turkish
relations.

`If we become convinced that the process of establishing
Armenia-Turkish relations is not moving forward in the right
direction, then it won’t be possible to continue it any longer,’ said
the Turkish foreign minister, as reported by Turkish media.

Davutoglu added that Ankara won’t change its position on the decision
made by the Armenian court on the Protocols.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/

Currently Armenia has no domestic resources for coup d’état
Home policy review for January 25-31, 2010
30.01.2010 GMT+04:00

The internal political life of Armenia acquired its former course, and
the past week was marked by the visits of a number of distinguished
guests from neighbouring countries. Yerevan hosted Iranian Foreign
Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, Prime Minister of Georgia Nikoloz Gilauri
and Mayor of Moscow Yuri Luzhkov. The week was also devoted to various
estimates by political forces and experts concerning the trilateral
meeting between the Presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia in
Sochi.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The week began with a meeting of Armenian Defense
Minister Seyran Ohanyan with students and instructors of Yerevan State
University. `I am always guided by the principle: `If you want peace,
prepare for war’. We never exclude the possibility of a military
solution to the Karabakh conflict on the part of Azerbaijan, but the
Armenian army is always ready to defend their homeland,’ declared the
Minister of Defense. According to him, NKR cannot be part of
Azerbaijan. `In this regard, we raise three problems: the right of NKR
people to self-determination should be respected, Nagorno-Karabakh
should have a land connection with Armenia and its security must be
ensured by international guarantees,’ the Defense Minister stressed.

The same day Razmik Zohrabyan, Deputy Chairman of the ruling
Republican Party of Armenia, was the first to assess the tripartite
meeting between the Presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia in
Sochi. Touching upon the surrender of territories, the Republican
Party representative said `It is out of the question’ until the scopes
of compromise are clarified. `Transitional status is not yet defined,
and it is still unknown how the people of Karabakh can express their
will. I think the parties have no idea how this can occur,’ the MP
said. He predicted that after the meeting in Sochi it would become
clear whether or not a framework agreement would be signed on
Karabakh. `However, no framework agreement will be signed till the
yearend, I suppose,’ Zohrabyan stressed.

At a joint press conference a similar assessment was given to the
Sochi meeting by Social Democrat Hunchakian Party board member Vardan
Khachatryan and Member of the Republican Party of Armenia Karen
Avagyan. `It would be unrealistic to believe that all issues related
to Karabakh conflict settlement could be given final resolution during
the trilateral presidential meeting in Sochi,’ declared Avagyan.
According to him, every presidential meeting is a step forward to
conflict resolution. He noted that the only fact that the
Nagorno-Karabakh status was discussed at the latest meeting could be
regarded as progress.

Vardan Khachatryan, for his part, noted that despite the recent
progress, Baku keeps demanding the impossible to gain maximum benefit,
with President Aliyev repeatedly bringing up the issue of military
settlement of Karabakh conflict.

`Negotiations will not definitely accelerate the conflict settlement
process, but the outcome of Armenian, Russian and Azerbaijani
Presidents’ meeting in Sochi will enable Turkey to speed up the
ratification of Armenian-Turkish Protocols,’ declared Deputy Director
of the Caucasus Institute Sergey Minasyan in an interview to
PanARMENIAN.Net.

Tuesday, January 26, President Serzh Sargsyan received Prime Minister
of Georgia Nikoloz Gilauri, who paid a working visit to Yerevan to
attend the 8th session of the intergovernmental commission on economic
cooperation between Armenia and Georgia. At the meeting President
Sargsyan noted that Yerevan is ready to further extend cooperation
with Tbilisi. In his turn, Gilauri conveyed to the Armenian President
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s invitation to visit Georgia.

On the same day Yerevan hosted a pre-planning conference on Combined
Endeavor 2010 exercise. The event organized by the U.S. European
Command brought together 300 communication specialists from 34
countries, including NATO members and partner states.

On January 26 Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki paid a
working visit to Yerevan to attend the 9th session of the
Armenian-Iranian intergovernmental commission. During the visit
Iranian Foreign Minister met with president of Armenia, RA prime
minister, speaker of the Armenian National Assembly, secretary of the
RA National Security Council and Armenian foreign minister. At the
meeting with Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan, the counterparts
discussed bilateral, regional and international issues. The foreign
ministers also touched upon the Karabakh conflict settlement and
normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. Manouchehr Mottaki
presented to Edward Nalbandyan the processes related to the nuclear
program of Iran.

Another positive evaluation of the tripartite presidential meeting in
Sochi was voiced Tuesday by Director of Analytical Research Center
Ruben Hakobyan. `The Sargsyan-Aliyev-Medvedev meeting in Sochi met our
expectations,’ Hakobyan said at a press conference in Yerevan. As to
the preamble of revised Madrid principles, Hakobyan said: `I’m not
aware of the contents of the preamble, but Karabakh conflict is
expected to be settled in compliance with 2 international norms –
territorial integrity and the right of nations to self-determination.’

Ruben Hakobyan also highlighted that during the past two decades, the
inner and outer life of Armenia has been conditioned by the Karabakh
conflict. Hakobyan did not share the view of some experts, who claim
that any progress in the Karabakh conflict may raise the issue of coup
d’état. `Armenia does not have the corresponding resources. The
`immune system’ of the country is too weak,’ said Hakobyan.

The recent presidential meeting in Sochi repeated the scenario of
previous meetings, according to ARFD parliamentary group member Hrayr
Karapetyan. Karapetyan believes there was much fuss both now and prior
to the Meindorf meeting, but expectations were not met in either case.
According to the MP, Azerbaijan should realize that Karabakh will
never be part of it and it should be involved in talks as an
independent party.

Next day, January 27, the Sochi meeting was once again criticized,
this time by the Heritage party. `I consider that the trilateral
meeting between the Presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia in
Sochi was another defective meeting,’ declared Heritage party
secretary, MP Larisa Alaverdyan. According to her, presidential
meetings without Artsakh leader’s participation can’t be considered
talks on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. `Presidential
meetings have only one positive side: while they continue, there is
hope that there will be no war,’ Alaverdyan noticed.

On January 27, President Serzh Sargsyan received Iranian Foreign
Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. The President noted the importance of the
Armenian-Iranian intergovernmental commission. `You know how much we
value the relations with Iran and we consider you a reliable partner
and a country of key importance in the region,’ Sargsyan said,
addressing to the Iranian FM.

Wednesday was also marked by another event: the Republican Party of
Armenia, `Prosperous Armenia’ and `Orinats Yerkir’ issued a statement
regarding the interview of PACE President Mevlut Cavusoglu to Azeri
news agency APA. `Some of PACE President’s comments call into question
his impartiality in the perception of Nagorno-Karabakh. PACE President
has a wrong perception of the nature and details of the issue, as well
as of negotiation progress concerning the problem in question,’ the
joint statement said. Armenian coalition parties urged RA NA speaker
to clarify with PACE President the reliability of the interview in
question and demand explanations, also asking Cavusoglu to specify
whether his words should be regarded as the official position of PACE.
If necessary, the RA NA Speaker was also to discuss the issue of
suspension of the Armenian delegation’s activities in PACE during
Mevlut Cavusoglu’s presidency.

Next day, January 28, Armenian NA Speaker Hovik Abrahamyan had a
telephone conversation with newly-elected PACE President Mevlut
Cavusoglu. During the conversation Cavusoglu informed the NA Speaker
that on January 26 the Azerbaijani news agency APA had misinterpreted
his remarks, ascribing him statements he had not uttered. The PACE
President assured that these statements were the result of a wrong
interpretation and mistreatment of the Azerbaijani media
representatives.

On January 28 Armenia celebrated the 18th anniversary of formation of
the Armenian National Army. Traditionally on this day the country’s
top leaders visit the Memorial of Military Volunteers Yerablur to
commemorate the soldiers who sacrificed their lives for the
motherland.

The day was crowned with a solemn concert devoted to 18th anniversary
of the Armenian Army. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, Ex-President
Robert Kocharyan, Chairman of the National Assembly Hovik Abrahamyan,
and Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan were present at the concert.

At the end of the week Leader of Constitutional Right Union party Hayk
Babukhanyan made a series of dramatic statements at a press
conference. According to him, Armenia should think of developing
nuclear weapon as a deterrent to Turkey’s genocidal policy.

Another scandalous statement issued by Babukhanyan concerned the
Heritage Party. Babukhanyan believes that Armenian authorities should
suspend the Party’s activities, because of its destructive position in
the PACE and assistance to Turkish-Azerbaijani policy. Soon Leader of
Heritage faction Stepan Safaryan disapproved Hayk Babukhanyan’s
statement on the party’s anti-governmental policy. According to
Safaryan, `There is reliable information that leader of Constitutional
Right Union receives funding from an oligarch representing one of the
three coalition parties.’

On January 29 Armenian Parliament held a working meeting, which
discussed the draft agenda of the RA NA spring session. The agenda
includes 78 issues and 14 international treaties.

Mikhail Balayan

GEORGE GHAZARYAN: WE ARE PLANNING TO CREATE FILM SERIES ABOUT KARABAKH WAR

PanARMENIAN.Net
28.01.2010 17:12 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ "War is not Traceless", the second film about
Karabakh war, will be prepared in 2010, says film director George
Ghazaryan.

As he told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter, the motion picture will form
part of the film series featuring the true history of Artsakh war.

"The idea of creating a film series was born long ago. The first film-
"The Shooting House" – was produced in 2009. Telling about civilians,
we aim to present the real picture of war," Ghazaryan said.

The second film – "War is not Traceless" – is based on the stories
of Gurgen Melikyan, Dean at Yerevan State University’s Oriental
Languages Department.

"The film plot is based on real stories told by Gurgen Melikyan,
who saw an Armenian serviceman helping a pregnant woman reach an
Armenian settlement, ridding her of Azeri soldiers’ barabarism,"
the director said.

Unlike the first film which lasts 20 minutes, the second film has 40
minutes’ running time, said the scenario writer and director.

George Ghazaryan was for many years a photo reporter and TV journalist,
director and documentary film maker, founder of the "League of NKR
Journalists".

Gurgen Melikyan, Oriental studies specialists, Professor at Yerevan
State University (YSU), Dean of Oriental Studies Department. Chairman
of Gurgen Melikyan fund for over 10 years.

Since the times of Karabakh war, Gurgen Melikyan rendered humanitarian
assistance to Artsakh, maintaining permanent contacts with reputable
guests regularly visiting the area. Over the recent years, his
fund has carried out various activities. One of key components of
the organization’s program is the assistance to large families of
Kashatgh region.

Shooting House is the first feature film in the history of Artsakh
(NKR). It’s a 20-minute film based on the history of writer, journalist
and participant of Karabakh war Ashot Beglaryan. The film was shot
under the support of NKR Defense Ministry and Public Television of
Artsakh (financial sponsor: businessman Karen Baghdasarov). Starring
in the film is participant of Karabakh war Martin Aloyan, actor of
the Drama Theatre after Vahram Papazyan.

The conflict between Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan broke out in
1988 as result of the ethnic cleansing the latter launched in the
final years of the Soviet Union. The Karabakh War was fought from
1991 to 1994. Since the ceasefire in 1994, sealed by Armenia, Nagorno
Karabakh and Azerbaijan, most of Nagorno Karabakh and several regions
of Azerbaijan around it (the security zone) remain under the control
of NKR defense army. Armenia and Azerbaijan are holding peace talks
mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group up till now.

BOYAJIAN: COUNTDOWN TO THE NEXT WAR OVER ARTSAKH
By David Boyajian

Armenian Weekly
January 28, 2010

Meeting at the White House with a group of Armenian Americans, the
chief U.S. negotiator for the OSCE peace talks on Artsakh (Karabagh)
announced that the United States would be satisfied if a peace
agreement were to last for only 10 years.

The official was Joseph A. Presel. It was 1996, and Bill Clinton was
president. I happened to be at that meeting.

With Presel were Richard Morningstar, U.S. special envoy to the newly
independent states of the Caucasus, Caspian, and Central Asia, Nancy
Soderberg of the National Security Council, and others. A key U.S.

objective, Soderberg declared, was to pump the region’s oil and gas
resources west through U.S. sponsored pipelines.

While commenting on the OSCE negotiations, Presel made an astonishing
remark, which I paraphrase: ‘Even if a peace agreement between
Armenians and Azerbaijan over Karabagh were to last just 10 years,
that would be sufficient.’

Did Presel mean that Washington would risk a quick fix for Artsakh
even if it were likely to result in a medium-term renewal of violence?

I believe so, and the reasons are clear.

The Armenian corridor

Like Georgia, Armenia sits in a strategic position between energy-rich
Azerbaijan (and the Caspian Sea) and NATO member Turkey.

An Artsakh peace accord would lead Azerbaijan, and probably Turkey,
to reopen their borders with Armenia. That, the U.S. State Department
hopes, would eventually result in Armenia’s serving American interests
as a land, air, and gas and oil pipeline corridor between Azerbaijan
and Turkey.

None of that will happen without an Artsakh peace accord. But it need
last just long enough for the U.S. to gain an economic and political
foothold in Armenia. Such a foothold would take several years, which
explains Presel’s 10-year timeframe.

Why did Presel, an experienced diplomat who had served in Turkey and
Russia and was soon to be the ambassador to Uzbekistan, make such a
damning disclosure about State Department strategy?

I don’t know. It was early in the morning, and Presel looked very
tired. Perhaps fatigue caused him to let his guard down.

With Presel’s 10-year timeframe in mind, consider the OSCE peace plan
for Artsakh that Washington, Paris, and Moscow have proposed.

Recipe for disaster

The plan would, for instance, allow thousands of Azeris to
resettle in Artsakh. Even Armenia has apparently fallen for this
pseudo-humanitarian proposal.

Azerbaijan will ensure that the resettlers include plenty of spies,
saboteurs, and provocateurs. Their job? To sow discord over property
rights, school curricula, military service, alleged discrimination,
and any other pretext they can dream up. The resulting disorder or
civil war would give the OSCE and Azerbaijan an excuse to cancel the
referendum that would supposedly decide Artsakh’s final legal status.

Claiming that Armenians were brutalizing its kin, Azerbaijan – armed
with advanced weapons bought with billions in oil and gas revenue –
could well launch a massive assault. Azerbaijan has always preferred
reconquest over peace.

Even if the resettled Azeris lived peacefully, their higher birth
rate would ensure their eventually outnumbering Armenians.

Under either scenario, Armenians could lose Artsakh permanently.

Major power plays

Would the United States (and Europe) really be unconcerned if an
Artsakh peace fell apart after 10 years or so? It depends.

If western-bound pipelines passed through Armenia, or if a new war
jeopardized the existing Azeri pipelines that lie just north of
Artsakh, Washington and Europe would oppose a new war by Azerbaijan.

It’s unclear, however, that they would have sufficient leverage over
Baku to enforce their will.

Conversely, if their interests were not threatened, the U.S. and
Europe might not particularly care if Azerbaijan reconquered Artsakh.

Russia might actually welcome a new war by Azerbaijan if it concluded
that an Armenian counterattack would damage western-bound pipelines.

The major powers could prove to be greater enemies of Artsakh than
is Azerbaijan.

Treachery and betrayal

Would Armenia ever agree to a deeply flawed peace plan for Artsakh
designed by the U.S., France, Europe, and Russia, all of whom have
historically lied to and betrayed Armenians? Probably.

Inexplicably, Armenian governments have rarely, if ever, publicly
reminded these countries of their treachery. Brought up in the
denationalized Soviet educational system, Armenian leaders may be
largely unaware of the details of that treachery.

Moreover, Armenia’s recent accord with Turkey – the so-called
"protocols" which tend to cast aside Armenian historical rights and
may make the factuality of the genocide debatable – demonstrates that
its leaders are poor negotiators and more concerned with lining their
pockets than heeding the views of their people.

State Department doubletalk

Despite Presel’s eye-opening revelation, unintentional or otherwise,
about a short-term fix for Artsakh, Armenians should know that he also
reflects the State Department’s doubletalk about the Armenian genocide.

At the White House, Presel referred directly to the Armenian genocide,
saying, ‘I don’t know why Turkey doesn’t just acknowledge it.’
The statement was strangely disingenuous. Presel had, after all,
served in Turkey and certainly knew of Ankara’s fear that a genocide
acknowledgment could advance long-standing Armenian claims to territory
and reparations.

Fast forward to several years ago. Presel was on a panel that discussed
Armenian – Turkish relations. He reportedly endorsed Turkey’s denialist
stance that the 1915 killings were not genocide but rather were caused
by Armenian rebellions.

Regardless, Armenians must take Presel’s "10-year" warning
seriously. There is no reason to believe that the State Department’s
policy is any different now than when he said it.

When a "peace" agreement on Artsakh is signed, start counting.

David Boyajian is a freelance writer. Many of his articles and
interviews are archived on Armeniapedia.org.

THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN WILL OFFER A FREE PERFORMANCE OF THE PLAY "SOJOURN AT ARARAT" ON THURSDAY

THEATER PREVIEW

The University of Michigan Armenian Studies Program (ASP) and the
Center for World Performance Studies (CWPS) will present the play
"Sojourn at Ararat" at 7 p.m. Thursday in the Biomedical Research
Building’s D. Dan and Betty Kahn Auditorium, at 109 Zena Pitcher.

Admission is free.

"Ararat," created and performed by Nora Armani and Gerald Papasian,
combines humorous and dramatic portrayals of the Armenian people and
homeland through the use of narrative text, poetry, songs and music
of several renowned Armenian artists. The piece has been performed
internationally and has received eight Drama Logue Critics’ Awards,
as well as multiple awards in Armenia.

UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND TO COMMEMORATE 95TH ANNIVERSARY OF GENOCIDE
By Naomi Kuromiya

Armenian Weekly
January 25, 2010

PROVIDENCE, R.I.-Over one and one half million Armenians perished in
the Armenian Genocide, the first genocide of the 20th century.

Committed by the political party of the Ottoman Empire commonly known
as the Young Turks, the killings and abuse occurred during World War
I from 1915-18 before being renewed once again from 1920-23.

The Turkish government had grown increasingly suspicious of the
minority Armenian population, and they therefore planned a deportation
and extermination program disguised as a resettlement plan. The
deported Armenians suffered massacres, starvation, disease, torture,
and the confiscation of all their possessions. The few that survived
became refugees in neighboring countries.

Today, the horrors of the genocide are commemorated annually on April
24, the date in 1915 when the terrible intentions of the Turkish
government for the Armenians first came to light. This year, to mark
the 95th anniversary of the atrocities, Gallery Z director Berge
Ara Zobian, an Armenian of Providence, will curate a historically
and artistically important show titled "The Armenian Genocide: 95
Years Later, In Remembrance." Carol Scavotto and the extensive staff
of Gallery Z will assist Zobian in coordinating this informative
academic exhibition.

Zobian was invited to produce the show in collaboration with the Urban
Arts and Culture Program of the University of Rhode Island. The show
will be displayed in Campus Gallery at the URI Feinstein Campus, a
prominent location that guarantees a large viewing audience. In the
month that it is displayed, from April 1 through April 30, the show
is expected to have over 30,000 visitors, including many who don’t
typically frequent galleries and museums.

Both Zobian and the URI coordinators have wanted time to celebrate
Providence’s Armenian Community for some by sharing various aspects
of Armenian culture and history: They are interested in acquiring
artwork, artifacts, posters, objects, and photographs that illustrate
home life, community life, and religious and political life in order
to provide a comprehensive representation of the Armenian Genocide.

Submissions to this show are open to any and all artists, from the
U.S. or abroad, and all mediums-including paintings, sculptures,
drawings, photos, and videos-will be accepted.

To receive submissions forms, artists should email Scavotto at
[email protected]. Pieces that reflect the artist’s impressions and
understanding of the genocide are important, but the show aims equally
to showcase the survival, achievements, and contributions of the
Armenian culture. The exhibition will commemorate deaths but also
celebrate life.

Unfortunately, a show of this great a scale is expected to be a costly
venture. Due to the enormous production and operation costs, any and
all financial donation and support would be greatly appreciated.

Donations can be sent to Zobian at 17 Amherst St., Providence, RI,
02909 (Memo: Genocide Exhibition).

Following the numerous other genocides of the 20th century,
acknowledging and examining past episodes of violence becomes all the
more crucial. As the first genocide of the 20th century, the Armenian
Genocide is a critical event to affirm, and the surviving culture
is essential to celebrate and spread with as large an audience as
possible. This show promises to accomplish both of these tasks with
your submissions and support.