The world will never be the same again, PM Pashinyan says at OSCE PA session

 16:52,

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 18, ARMENPRESS. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned OSCE PA delegates on Saturday that countries ought to plan the future to prevent future crises and clashes.

Speaking at the OSCE PA Autumn Meeting in Yerevan, PM Pashinyan said that the world will never be the same again after the crises in Afghanistan, Ukraine, Gaza and the ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh.

“It is obvious that after the crises in Afghanistan, Ukraine, Gaza, and the ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh, the world will never be the same again, no one doubts this no more. But no one knows what the world of tomorrow will look like,” Pashinyan warned.

The Armenian PM said that it is extremely important to plan the future, otherwise crises and clashes could spread.

Speaking about the Armenian-Azeri peace process, the PM said there are both good news and bad news.

He said that the good news is that the main principles for peace are agreed upon, citing the May 14 and July 15 statements by President of the European Council Charles Michel.

The three principles are:  reciprocal recognition of territorial integrity and sovereignty, based on the understanding that Armenia’s territory covers 29.800 km2 and Azerbaijan’s 86.600 km2; commitment to the 1991 Almaty Declaration as a political framework for the delimitation of border; unblocking of regional connections under the sovereignty and jurisdiction of the countries through which they pass. There is also an understanding that both countries do not have territorial claims against each other and are ready to assume obligations not to do so in the future. “And this is the reason why we propose Azerbaijan to reciprocally pull back troops from the administrative borders of the USSR, and to address the exclave/enclave issues. The exclave of Artsvashen, a part of sovereign Armenian territory, has been under Azeri occupation for over 30 years,” Pashinyan said.

“The good news is that the main principles for peace with Azerbaijan are agreed upon. This has happened as a result of my meetings in Brussels with the Azerbaijani President under the mediation of the President of the European Council Charles Michel. These agreements are recorded in the May 14 and July 15 statements by Charles Michel following the trilateral meetings,” the Prime Minister said.

Armenia has presented its Crossroads of Peace project to ensure its share of the agreements.

Pashinyan warned however that the bad news is that Armenia and Azerbaijan still talk with different diplomatic languages and very often do not understand each other.

“Of course there are also objective reasons for this, such as the long lasting conflict, with certain historical context, thousands of victims, and it is very difficult to look into the eyes of their families, tens of prisoners, and there are no answers to the questions of their families, the prevailing atmosphere of hate for decades and the doubts that malicious intentions are concealed behind constructive statements. Moreover, in some sense what I’ve just said relates to both Armenia and Azerbaijan. But Azerbaijan, for example, hasn’t once publicly mentioned the abovementioned three principles, hasn’t reaffirmed commitment to these principles, which deepens the atmosphere of distrust,” Pashinyan said.

He also warned about the “extremely suspicious” Azeri state narrative of misrepresenting Armenia as ‘Western Azerbaijan.’

“They are teaching this concept in schools and universities, and in the media. This seems to us as preparations for a new war, new aggression against Armenia, and it is one of the main obstacles for progress in the peace process,” Pashinyan said.

The Armenian PM said that Azerbaijan’s refusal to release Armenian prisoners is incomprehensible, despite Yerevan’s proposal to resolve the matter under the ‘all for all’ principle.

Pashinyan said that Armenia is committed to the peace agenda and the peace process.

“Clear Intention of Ethnic Cleansing”: Israeli Holocaust Scholar Omer Bartov Warns of Genocide in Gaza

Nov 10 2023

Israeli American scholar Omer Bartov, one of the world’s leading experts on the Holocaust, says Israel’s brutal assault on the Gaza Strip is at risk of becoming a genocide. The monthlong air and ground war has killed more than 11,000 Palestinians in the besieged enclave, a majority of them women and children. Israel has also severely limited the movement of food, water, fuel, medicine and other essentials into Gaza. Bartov says the disproportionate killing of civilians by Israel, as well as dehumanizing statements by Israeli leaders and suggestions of mass expulsion, are of grave concern. He recently joined hundreds of lawyers and academics in signing an open letter warning about Israel’s violations of international law in Gaza. “There is an indication that there are war crimes happening in Gaza, potentially also crimes against humanity,” says Bartov. “If this so-called operation continues, that may become ethnic cleansing … and that may become genocide.”


This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.

AMY GOODMAN: “If there is a hell on Earth, it’s the north of Gaza.” Those were the words of a U.N. official earlier today as Israel intensifies its aerial and ground assault. Tens of thousands of Palestinians have fled on foot from northern Gaza after being forcibly displaced by Israel’s attacks. More than half of all homes in Gaza have been destroyed or damaged over the last month.

On Thursday, the Biden administration announced Israel has agreed to implement what the White House described as daily four-hour pauses in areas of northern Gaza to give Palestinians a chance to head south. Many Palestinians fear they’ll never be allowed to return home. Some have accused the Biden administration of facilitating the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. Images of Palestinians fleeing on foot have been widely compared to the Nakba, or catastrophe, when some 700,000 Palestinians were violently expelled from their homes upon Israel’s founding in 1948.

We begin today’s show with the Israeli-born historian Omer Bartov, who recently signed an open letter warning of Israel committing a potential genocide in Gaza. Omer Bartov is a professor of Holocaust and genocide studies at Brown. The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum has cited him as one of the world’s leading specialists on the subject of genocide. Bartov is the author of numerous books, including, most recently, Genocide, the Holocaust and Israel-Palestine: First-Person History in Times of Crisis.

Democracy Now!'s Juan González and I spoke to professor Omer Bartov on Wednesday from his home in Cambridge, Massachusetts. I began by asking him to talk about his own experience serving as an Israeli soldier in the northern Sinai in the 1970s and how it's impacted his view on what’s going on today.

OMER BARTOV: I was a soldier in the IDF, in the Israeli Defense Forces, between 1973 and 1976. And so, as a young soldier, the first thing that I experienced was the trauma, the huge surprise of the Arab — the Egyptian and Syrian attack on Israel on October 6th, 1973. And I should say that when the Hamas attack on Israel occurred on the 7th of October, 2023, 50 years and a day later, that was quite traumatic, I think, for myself and many members of my generation. And we can talk further about why it was so traumatic.

But in the course of my service, I also served in the northern Sinai, and the command post that I belonged to was in Gaza. And so I would go quite often to Gaza, which was then — had a population of about 350,000, was poor, hopeless and congested. And since then, of course, now we have between two and two-and-a-half million people living in Gaza, which is much poorer, much more congested and whose population is much more desperate, and has been desperate for a long time, considering that it’s been under Israeli siege now for 16 years. So, for me, the lack of progress for all those years in somehow resolving this terrible humanitarian problem is very personal.

And I should add one thing. I was usually not employed as a soldier in occupation duties, but there was a time that I was. And I have very distinct recollection of that, leading my platoon through an Egyptian city at the time, with people looking at us from behind the windows, obviously not wanting us to be there, obviously afraid of us, and us walking on the street obviously feeling uncomfortable being where we are and being somewhat afraid of what might happen to us as we were marching then. That sort of sense of what being an occupation soldier means stayed with me all those years, and it’s always made me — has been one of the reasons, a sort of more personal rather than political or analytical reason, why I’ve always thought that it’s time to end this occupation, for which we called in that August 4th petition, two months before the Hamas attack on Israel.

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: And, Professor, I’m wondering — we hear often now these days, especially in conflicts such as these, the terms “crime against humanity,” “war crime,” “genocide.” Most people don’t understand the distinction. And for some of us, war itself is a crime, and saying a “war crime” is almost redundant. But I’m wondering if you could give us more of a guidance or sense of the distinction between these terms.

OMER BARTOV: Yes. So, I think that’s a really important question, because people, as you say, just use these terms without really thinking what they mean. And because genocide is perceived as the worst crime, then any atrocity that happens, anything that people think deserves some sort of extreme title, they call genocide.

So, there are actually U.N. resolutions on war crimes and on genocide, and they define them clearly. Now, one can dispute those definitions, but those are the definitions under international law. The convention, the U.N. Convention on Genocide, so, 1948, defines it as the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group as such. And that’s a very important definition, because it calls for two things. It calls, first of all, for intention — you have to show that the killing is intentional, is not just part of war, part of violence, but is intentional — and, second, that the intention is to destroy that group, defined as such by the perpetrator as such. That is, it’s not the killing of individuals; it’s the killing of individuals as members of a particular group.

That’s very different from war crimes, because war crimes are violations of the laws and customs of war against both combatants and noncombatants, civilians. And crimes against humanity has to do with extermination or other mass crimes against any civilian population. You do not have to show intent, and it does not have to happen at a time of war. So, it is important to distinguish between these these three categories.

And I would add to it a third, which has a definition, although there is no resolution on it, which is ethnic cleansing. Ethnic cleansing is the attempt to remove a population from a particular territory, usually because you want that territory, and you don’t want the people living on it to stay on it. Genocide is the attempt to kill a particular group, wherever it is. But there is a connection between the two, because often ethnic cleansing becomes genocide. That happened, in fact, in the Armenian genocide in World War I, and it happened, in fact, also in the Holocaust, which began as an attempt to remove Jews from particular territories, and then, when the Germans felt there was no place to move them to, they decided to murder them en masse. So, if we think about these different categories, we can distinguish between what we see on the ground and how we feel about it.

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: And your sense of what is happening in terms of these categories right now in Gaza?

OMER BARTOV: So, my sense is the following. Israeli political leaders and military leaders have made very startling and frightening statements about Gaza, speaking about flattening Gaza, speaking about Hamas, but by sort of extending it also, by extension, also Gazans, in general, as human animals, speaking about moving the entire population of Gaza out of Gaza. That is a clear intention of ethnic cleansing. So, those statements show intent. And that’s a genocidal intent, which is often very difficult to prove in genocide. People who carry out genocide don’t always want to say that they’re doing it.

The second is: What are they actually doing there? And military leaders on the ground keep saying that what they’re trying to do is to hit Hamas targets, that Hamas often — and I think that’s often true — places its own headquarters, rockets and so forth under hospitals, inside mosques, playgrounds, schools and so forth. So the military claim that they’re trying to hit Hamas and not the population, but, unfortunately, the population is also getting killed. In that sense, there is clearly disproportionate killing of civilians. That is, the numbers, as you quoted earlier, are now estimated to be over 10,000. And even if we don’t believe the numbers given out by Hamas, they’re still in the many thousands. They may even be more, because many bodies are probably buried under the debris. And of those, at least 4,000 are children. And one has to remember that half of the population of Gaza is under 18 years old. So, to me, there is an indication that there are war crimes happening in Gaza, potentially also crimes against humanity.

Whether at the moment this is genocide, my own sense is that it is not genocide at the moment, because there is still no clear indication of an attempt to destroy the entire population, which would be genocide, but that we are very close on the verge of that. And if this so-called operation continues, that may become ethnic cleansing — in part, it’s already happened with the move of so many Palestinians from northern Gaza to southern Gaza — and that may become genocide.

AMY GOODMAN: Professor Omer Bartov, I was really struck by you saying it was in August that you joined other leading historians and Israeli scholars in signing this letter criticizing the, quote, “regime of apartheid.” So, that is two months before Hamas attack of October 7th. Now, often these days, after the attack that killed over 1,300 people in Israel, if you raise any kind of context, you’re accused of justifying what happened. If you, as a historian, can talk about your use of that term? I remember years ago interviewing the Nobel laureate Archbishop Tutu in South Africa. And he said, when he went to the Occupied Territories, he found it worse than apartheid in his own country of South Africa, which he survived. So, your clearly thought-out use of this term, and then a discussion about what it means to try to explain what’s happening, including using the term “occupation”?

OMER BARTOV: So, let me say, when we crafted that statement, and we worked on it quite a bit in July and finally issued it, so-called “The Elephant in the Room,” the elephant in the room that we were talking about was the occupation, and which we defined as — in the West Bank, as a regime of apartheid. Now, the reason we did it at the time was that, if you remember, there were vast protests in Israel at the time against the Netanyahu government, the Netanyahu government attempt to so-called overhaul the judicial system, which was really an attempt to undermine the rule of law in Israel to strengthen the executive and weaken the judiciary, which is the only control over the executive in Israel, with the goal of extending the occupation regime in the West Bank and, finally, of annexing that area and making life impossible for the Palestinian population there. There are over half a million Jewish settlers there and somewhere around 3 million Palestinians living there.

Now, what do we mean by “apartheid”? First of all, people tend to think of apartheid as what happened in South Africa. And the term comes from there. But there is, in fact, a U.N. resolution on apartheid that defines what apartheid is. And curiously, all the elements that are mentioned in that resolution exist also in the West Bank, the most important of which is that you have two populations in the West Bank, Jews and Palestinians. The Jews, the settlers, are extraterritorial Israeli citizens. They live under Israeli law, or some kind of figment that creates them as living under Israeli law. They can vote to the Israeli parliament. They enjoy all the rights of democracy the Jews in Israel enjoy. The Palestinians live — the Palestinians there live under a completely different set of laws, which gives them almost no rights at all. That is, they live under a military regime. They are tried before military courts, where the judges are lawyers on reserve service, Israeli lawyers on reserve service. One can detain them endlessly in prison. And so, these are two groups that live under totally different laws. They’re also separated from each other by a set of roads, roadblocks, checkposts, that make life increasingly difficult for Palestinians and make life much better for the Jewish population there. So, from that point of view, there’s clearly an apartheid regime in the West Bank.

And that has, in many ways, filtered into Israel. That is, generation after generation of young Israeli men and women are called up and go to serve as policemen in the West Bank in military uniform. Most of what they do is police the population. And that has a corrupting impact on more and more generations of Israelis, who get used to the idea that they can break into homes at 4:00 in the morning, arrest whoever they like. And so, that effect is not only that we have an apartheid regime, but we have a corruption of democracy in Israel itself, which ultimately resulted in this attempt by Netanyahu’s regime to change the very system of democracy in Israel, which was really only for Jews in the first place.

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: And, Professor, I’m wondering if you — you mentioned previously the acquiescence or the refusal to confront the problem in general Israeli society of the occupation? Why do you think that is, especially given the fact that Israel in its early years had a very vibrant labor, socialist and humanitarian movement among those who who created the state of Israel? What has happened?

OMER BARTOV: Well, I would say, I mean, the simple answer is that power corrupts, and that Israel has suffered for years from a kind of euphoria of power. And when I talked about the sort of link between what happened in 1973 and what happened in 2023, it is exactly that — that is, that Israel came to believe that it’s strong enough to be able to do what it likes, and it does not need to have any political compromise, which means territorial compromise. The War of 1973 could have been avoided, had Israel agreed to negotiate with Anwar Sadat at the time, the president of Egypt — which it did, eventually, after the war — and return the Sinai Peninsula and receive peace in return. But 3,000 Israeli soldiers were killed, some of whom were my classmates. And the same happened now. That is, Israel refused to talk about any territorial compromise and believed that Hamas can lob a few rockets here and there, but, by and large, it’s not a problem for it, and therefore, there’s no need to think of any territorial compromise.

And this, you know, became the sense in the large sectors of the Israeli public. People could live in Tel Aviv, have a good time, have a good life. And 20 miles to their east, there was an apartheid regime, but it really had very little to do with them. And the curious thing was — and this is what we were trying to point out in August — was that the people who were protesting, the hundreds of thousands of Israelis who, quite remarkably, went out to the streets every Saturday to protest against the erosion of democracy in Israel, refused to talk about the occupation. And when I was there protesting against that, we were marginalized. We were pushed to the side. And people said, “Well, occupation, that’s a kind of — that’s a difficult term. You know, not everybody agrees on that. Let’s not talk about it now. It will divert attention,” whereas, in fact, it was the core of the very attempt to change the rules of the game in Israel.

AMY GOODMAN: In a moment, we’ll return to our interview with Omer Bartov, professor of Holocaust and genocide studies at Brown University. The Israeli American scholar has been described by the U.S. Holocaust Museum as one of the world’s leading specialists on the subject of genocide. Back in 20 seconds.

Watch the interview at 

Armenian government approves additional financial support program for forcibly displaced persons of NK

 11:32, 9 November 2023

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 9, ARMENPRESS. The Armenian government has approved an additional financial support program for the forcibly displaced persons of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The decision was approved at the November 9 Cabinet meeting.

The forcibly displaced persons will each receive an additional 50,000 drams in November and December for essential consumer expenditures. Those who temporarily live in hotels or guest homes, or are currently abroad or have more than 2 million drams in savings on their bank accounts will not be eligible for the program.

Agreement on EUMA status and privileges to be signed soon

 13:33, 3 November 2023

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 3, ARMENPRESS. An agreement will soon be signed on the status and privileges of the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA), Deputy Foreign Minister Paruyr Hovhannisyan has said.

“As a new sector, I have to mention also the political and security sector,” he said in a parliamentary committee discussion on the 2024 budget when asked on the relations with EU.

“We’ve already recorded progress in this matter, in terms of stipulating the status of the European Union Mission in Armenia. A relevant agreement will be signed soon,” Hovhannisyan said.

Hovhannisyan said the agreement pertains to the status and privileges of the monitors. “We do this in case of every international organization,” he explained.

The issue of increasing the number of observers and adding new possible functions are being discussed.




EU boosts humanitarian aid to displaced Karabakh Armenians with almost €1.7 million

Oct 31 2023

The Commission is increasing its humanitarian funding in Armenia with almost €1.7 million in response to the mass influx of people from Nagorno Karabakh.

The new funding will aim to further strengthen the existing EU humanitarian response to the displaced people by providing cash assistance, shelter, food security and livelihoods assistance, protection, and health.

This funding comes in addition to the €10.45 million already announced by the Commission in response to the crisis, bringing total humanitarian funding to more than €12 million in 2023.

Commissioner for Crisis Management, Janez Lenarčič said: “Karabakh Armenians will not be forgotten. As the winter sets in, the displaced people in Armenia will face additional challenges. The EU is boosting its humanitarian funding to be prepared for the winter. We continue working together with our humanitarian partners on the ground to provide assistance to the most vulnerable.”

With more than 100,000 people having fled their homes, often taking minimal belongings with them, they are now in need of food, shelter and other essential services as they try to settle in Armenia.

The needs are expected to increase in light of the looming winter as people in need will require winterised shelter and warm clothing.

Publication date
Author
Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO)

Joly announces more funding for Armenian refugees, stops short of threatening sanctions on Azerbaijan

CBC Canada
Oct 26 2023

Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly announced another $1 million in humanitarian funding Wednesday to help displaced ethnic Armenian refugees who recently fled a military operation launched by Azerbaijan — but she stopped well short of threatening to sanction Azeri government officials over the attack.

"I've said everything is on the table. That being said, we expect that Armenia's territorial integrity [will] be respected and for us, this is definitely something that we're watching," Joly told journalists during a visit to Armenia's capital Yerevan to open Canada's new embassy there. She was attending a press conference with her Armenian counterpart, Ararat Mirzoyan.

The $1 million has been earmarked for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, on top of $2.5 million Canada announced previously for refugee relief through the International Committee of the Red Cross.

More than 100,000 ethnic Armenians are believed to have fled Azerbaijan's shelling campaign in the long-disputed enclave of  Nagorno-Karabakh in September. Called an "anti terror" operation by Azerbaijan, the campaign also followed nine months of a blockade imposed by Baku that left the region short of food and medical supplies.

Nagono-Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. Before last month's events, it had a majority Armenian population and a de-facto ethnic Armenian government that was not recognized by any country in the world.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought two wars over Nagorno-Karabakh since the fall of the Soviet Union. 

"We continue to work on mitigating the unjustifiable impacts of this military action on civilians, who have already been affected by months of an illegal blockade, and to find a sustainable negotiated settlement to this conflict," Joly said Wednesday.

In a statement posted to its website, Azerbaijan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs called Joly's statements at her news conference an "indication of the overt bias of Canada against Azerbaijan."

"Regarding the non-exclusion of sanctions as a tool against Azerbaijan, we would like to note that it is erroneous to speak with Azerbaijan in the language of threat, and that it will not bear any results to either side," the statement warned.

Azerbaijan's statement also accused Armenia of hindering the peace process. "It was the party which violated [those] principles with every effort during more than 30 years," it said. 

Joly's visit comes as some experts warn of the risk of further conflict between the two Caucasus countries.

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has made repeated claims to a strip of land within Armenia's internationally recognized borders, the so-called Zangezur Corridor. Azerbaijan wants the corridor in order to connect its mainland to Nakhchivan, an Azeri enclave to Armenia's southwest.

Armenia says Azeri military forces have taken over roughly 50 square kilometres of Armenian territory after border skirmishes last year.

"I think the danger of this continuing or expanding is absolutely possible,"  said Kyle Matthews, the executive director of the Montreal Institute for Genocide Studies and Human Rights at Concordia University.

Matthews said Canada could lead the world in applying sanctions on Azerbaijan, instead of waiting to hear if allies like the United States and the European Union are willing to take part.

"This is the third time we've been hearing from the minister saying that everything's on the table," said Sevag Belian, executive director of the Armenian National Committee of Canada, a  Canadian-Armenian political advocacy group. He was visiting Yerevan for the embassy's inauguration.

"Certainly, that is a step forward," he said, citing Joly's claim that "everything is on the table." He said he hopes the Canadian government can identify different pressure points on Azerbaijan.

While Azeri and Armenian officials have met for talks on a few occasions since September, Azerbaijan skipped out on a meeting brokered by the European Union earlier in October.

At Wednesday's news conference, Mirzoyan told journalists that a meeting that was scheduled for later this month between Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and European Council President Charles Michel won't be happening either.

"Obviously it is Azerbaijan's president who didn't find the time," Mirzoyan said, adding his government is ready for further talks. "I do hope the reason really is a scheduling issue, and it will be possible to find time to schedule another meeting."

Earlier this week, Azerbaijan publicized video of military exercises with Turkey, a long-time regional ally in its conflict with Armenia. Azerbaijan's defence department said some of the exercises occurred in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenia, meanwhile, has concluded a deal with France to purchase air defence equipment, a move Baku officials have described as provocative.

"I think Azerbaijan will use whatever reason it has at its disposal to attack," Matthews said, adding Armenia has a right to buy defensive equipment under international law, especially given the hostility of its neighbours.

Armenia has depended on a security alliance with Russia for decades, but ties between the two countries have become frayed in recent years.

Armenia blamed Moscow for failing to intervene in a 2020 war with Azerbaijan, as well as the more recent blockade and military action, despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. 

The Russian state-run news agency TASS quoted an unnamed Moscow official last week warning Armenia against becoming another Ukraine.

On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal published an interview with Pashinyan, who said Armenia no longer sees any advantage in continuing to host Russian military bases on its territory.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/azerbaijan-armenia-nagorno-karabakh-1.7007939

Can There Be Lasting Peace Between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Oct 27 2023
Instead of Russian and Western drafts of a peace treaty, there will now only be one: Azerbaijan’s.

Last month, Azerbaijan used force to seize control over Nagorno-Karabakh, a long-disputed ethnic Armenian enclave, displacing almost the entire Karabakh Armenian population. It might seem that their exodus has paved the way for a comprehensive peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia: after all, if the Armenian presence in the region is no longer a political factor, what is there to argue about? Yet Karabakh was not the only source of conflict between the two countries. Behind it loom other territorial disputes.

Before last month’s one-day war on September 19, the debate was over whether any agreement should be signed on Russia’s or Western terms. It is now clear that it will be neither. Instead, Azerbaijan will define its own terms, and decide where the treaty is signed.

This month, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev passed up two opportunities to negotiate a peace deal. The first was at a summit of European leaders on October 5 in Spain, where Pashinyan and Aliyev were expected to meet for the first time since last month’s one-day war.

Aliyev and Pashinyan had met twice before at the summit, both times in the presence of French President Emmanuel Macron and the president of the European Council, Charles Michel. This time, however, Aliyev chose not to attend. This was a demarche against Macron, whose pro-Armenian rhetoric has made him an undesirable interlocutor for Baku, and against the French government, which had discussed supplying Armenia with weapons following the one-day war.

Aliyev’s absence did not stop Pashinyan from going to Spain and signing a declaration recognizing the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. He signed a similar document in Aliyev’s presence in Prague last year, but this time the text listed the area of Azerbaijan as 86,600 square kilometers: in other words, it included not only Karabakh, but also other enclaves that existed during the Soviet era. 

A few days later, at the summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (a loose grouping of nine former Soviet republics) in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, the roles were reversed: Aliyev attended, but Pashinyan did not. Nor was the Armenian foreign minister present for a meeting with his counterparts, sending a deputy in his place. This was a snub to Moscow, which had planned on organizing a meeting between the top Armenian and Azerbaijani diplomats. This was more in Russia’s interest than Azerbaijan’s, but Aliyev went along with it so he could once again accuse Armenia of sabotaging a peace deal.

Pashinyan and Aliyev can afford to be picky about which summits they attend, because the substance of a future peace treaty has already been decided by the events of September 19. The status of Karabakh—for so long a point of contention between Russian and Western mediators—is no longer in question. 

According to Armenian estimates, there are only about forty Armenians left in Karabakh. Meanwhile, Baku says that ninety-eight Armenians have applied for documents that will enable them to be integrated into Azerbaijan. 

The West continues to criticize Azerbaijan for using force and insists on the right of Armenians to return to their homes. But Baku remains in charge of the situation and can choose whichever mediator it likes. Instead of Russian and Western drafts of the treaty, there is now only one—Azerbaijan’s—irrespective of where it is signed. One option would be to sign it in neighboring Georgia, asserting the sovereignty of the Caucasus region and limiting the influence of outside players.

Another remaining question is the fate of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh, who are currently shutting down one outpost after another. In Bishkek, Russian President Vladimir Putin implied they may yet stay. But it’s unclear why Baku would agree to such a concession, and, in any case, Pashinyan has said that Armenia won’t accept them on its territory. 

Although the two countries’ leaders have foregone two opportunities to meet already, Pashinyan still estimates the probability of signing a deal by the end of the year at 70 percent: quite realistic, if expectations of the document are tempered. 

The eagerly awaited peace treaty will almost certainly be nothing more than a framework, incapable of resolving all the disputes. Most likely, it will include the recognition of both sides’ territorial integrity based on a specific map, along with the renunciation of military force, the start of the border demarcation process, first steps toward establishing diplomatic relations, and a promise of the free transit of goods. 

Armenia needs to sign such a treaty to at least reduce the possibility of border clashes, but quite how much this will help is a major question. Both parties know that the last shot on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border has not yet been fired. Baku insists on connecting Nakhichevan, its exclave that borders Armenia, Turkey, and Iran, to the rest of Azerbaijan. For now, Baku is unlikely to stage a full-scale invasion for this purpose, but skirmishes could lead to escalation and further concessions by Armenia.

Concessions will not only be necessary regarding Nakhichevan. In Soviet times, there were eight Azerbaijani enclaves in Armenia, and only one Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan. A simple swap, therefore, would be impossible. Moreover, seizing control over the enclaves of Yukhari Askipara and Barkhudarli would allow Azerbaijan to cut off the Yerevan-Tbilisi highway if it so desired. There are still plenty of challenges ahead, therefore: not only in defining and securing the enclaves, but also in providing access to them. 

Nor is it clear how and by whom the Baku-Nakhichevan corridor would be operated. According to a joint statement made by Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan following the 2020 Azerbaijan-Armenia war, the corridor would be controlled by Russian border guards. But such an outcome is unlikely now that Russian peacekeepers are being withdrawn from Karabakh; the relationship between Yerevan and Moscow is at a nadir; and Baku is calling most of the shots. 

Resolving these issues will take years and will depend on the shift of power dynamics in the region. For now, signing a rudimentary peace treaty that deters Azerbaijan from further escalation would be a good result for Armenia. Baku knows this, and will therefore try to squeeze everything it can from the situation before signing any such document.

Baku has all the tools for a new escalation. One is its claim of a “Western Azerbaijan” (i.e., parts of Armenia that were populated by Azeris in Soviet times). This notion features increasingly prominently in state media and Aliyev’s speeches. And while Armenia’s only leverage comes from external backers, Azerbaijan’s stems from the facts on the ground. 

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.


No alternative to peace in the South Caucasus, says Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman

 17:28,

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 23, ARMENPRESS. The Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German parliament, the Bundestag, Michael Roth has expressed his solidarity with Armenia, stressing that there is no alternative to peace in the South Caucasus.

"On October 24, together with my delegation, I will visit the southern regions of Armenia to express solidarity with Armenia as a democratic country and send a message to the autocratic regime of Azerbaijan that there is no alternative to peace in this region. We will not tolerate any military solution in the region," Roth emphasized.

According to the German lawmaker, the use of military force used against ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh is definitely a gross violation of international law.

German lawmaker, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Bundestag Michael Roth has arrived in Armenia.

Meetings with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Speaker of Parliament Alen Simonyan and the Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs Sargis Khandanyan are scheduled.




RFE/RL Armenian Service – 10/23/2023

                                        Monday, 


Armenian FM Joins Talks On Caucasus Peace In Iran

        • Tatevik Lazarian

IRAN - The foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iran, Armenia and Russia 
meet in Tehran, .


Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan joined his Azerbaijani, Iranian, Russian and 
Turkish counterparts in meeting on Monday in Tehran for talks on peace and 
stability in the South Caucasus.

The multilateral talks were held within the framework of the so-called 
“Consultative Regional Platform 3+3” launched in December 2021 in Moscow. 
Georgia continues to boycott the platform, citing continuing Russian occupation 
of its breakaway regions.

“The war in the South Caucasus is now over and the time has come for peace, 
cooperation and development in the Caucasus,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein 
Amir-Abdollahian was reported to say at the start of the talks.

“We believe that problems in this region can be resolved without external 
interference. This is part of the message of today’s meeting in the 3+3 format,” 
he said, underscoring Iran’s strong opposition to Western presence in the 
region, which is shared by Russia.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi likewise described it as “harmful for regional 
peace and stability” when he met with Mirzoyan earlier in the day, according to 
Iranian news agencies.

Amid its deepening rift with Moscow, the Armenian leadership now seems to be 
pinning hopes on Western efforts to broke a resolution of its conflict with 
Azerbaijan. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian expressed hope last week that he and 
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will meet in Brussels again and finalize a 
bilateral peace treaty before the end of this year.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov questioned the European Union’s ability 
to facilitate the delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, a key 
remaining obstacle to the signing of the treaty.

“Let them try their luck in Brussels, if they want to, but we are always ready 
to help start the real delimitation,” he told reporters after the Tehran meeting.

Lavrov said that these and other sticking points in Armenian-Azerbaijani 
negotiations were not “directly” discussed by the five ministers.

“There are other channels for doing this. But the platform itself helps resolve 
remaining issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” added the top Russian diplomat.

Mirzoyan held a separate meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on 
the sidelines of the Tehran conference, which coincided with the start of a 
fresh Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercise held near Armenia’s borders. His 
press office reported no such meetings with Lavrov or Azerbaijan’s Jeyhun 
Bayramov as of 10 p.m. local time.




Armenia Signs First Arms Deal With France


France - French Defense Minsiter Sebastien Lecornu and his Armenian counterpart 
Suren Papikian sign a memorandum of understanding in Paris, .


France pledged to boost Armenia’s air defenses, train Armenian military 
personnel and help the South Caucasus country reform its armed forces as the 
French group Thales and Yerevan signed a contract for the purchase of three 
radar systems on Monday.

French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his Armenian counterpart Suren 
Papikian also signed a “letter of intent” on the future delivery of Mistral 
short-range surface-to-air missiles.

They gave no financial or other details of these deals during a joint news 
conference held after their talks in Paris. Lecornu emphasized the defensive 
character of what will be first-ever Western-manufactured major weapons supplied 
to Armenia.

“It is a weapon system which, by its very nature, can only be used when there is 
an aggression against Armenian territory and often with civilian populations 
underneath,” he said, alluding to the risk of Azerbaijani invasion of Armenia.

Lecornu also announced that France will train Armenian officers to operate the 
military equipment known for its “remarkable detection capabilities” and assist 
in ongoing reforms of the Armenian armed forces. A special French military 
official will advise the Armenian Defense Ministry on those reforms, he said, 
adding that French instructors will be sent to Armenia to teach its troops new 
combat techniques.

The French government first signaled arms supplies to Armenia last year 
following large-scale fighting on the country’s border with Azerbaijani which 
resulted in Azerbaijani territorial gains. It gave the green light for them 
following last month’s Azerbaijani military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh that 
led to the restoration of Azerbaijani control over the region and displaced its 
virtually entire ethnic Armenian population. French President Emmanuel Macron 
suggested that Baku might now attack Armenia as well.

FRANCE - France's President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Armenian Prime Minister 
Nikol Pashinian prior to their meeting at the Elysee palace in Paris, September 
26, 2022.
"France has given its agreement to the conclusion of future contracts with 
Armenia which will allow the delivery of military equipment to Armenia so that 
it can ensure its defense," French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said 
during an October 3 visit to Yerevan.

The Azerbaijani government condemned Colonna’s announcement as further proof of 
Paris’s pro-Armenian bias in the Karabakh conflict. Baku itself has increased 
its military expenditures after the 2020 Karabakh war, buying more weapons from 
Turkey, Israel and possibly other countries.

Armenia is stepping up military cooperation with France, a major NATO member, 
amid its worsening relationship with Russia, a longtime ally. The tensions stem 
in large measure from what Yerevan sees as a lack of Russian support in the 
conflict with Azerbaijan. Moscow’s failure to prevent, stop or even condemn the 
Azerbaijani offensive in Karabakh only added to them.

Also, Armenian leaders have implied over the past year that Moscow has failed to 
supply more weapons to Yerevan despite Russian-Armenian defense contracts signed 
after the 2020 war in Karabakh. They have said they have no choice but to look 
for alternative arms suppliers.

France, which is home to a sizable and influential Armenian community, has 
become Armenia’s leading Western backer during Macron’s rule. Lecornu said on 
Monday that it is committed to the South Caucasus nation’s territorial integrity 
despite the fact that “we are not part of the same military and political 
alliances .”




Iranian Firms To Rebuild Strategic Road In Armenia

        • Robert Zargarian

Armenia - A view of Kajaran, a town in Syunik province.


The Armenian government has awarded a $215 million contact to a consortium of 
two Iranian companies to upgrade a 32-kilometer section of the main highway 
connecting Armenia to Iran through its endangered Syunik region.

A senior government official and top executives of those companies signed a 
relevant agreement in Yerevan on Monday in the presence of Armenia’s Minister of 
Territorial Administration and Infrastructures Gnel Sanosian and Iran’s Minister 
of Roads and Urban Development Mehrzad Bazrpash.

“We are very happy that … Iranian companies will carry out the construction of 
this road section,” Sanosian said at the signing ceremony.

“Our neighbor, Armenia, is very important to us,” Bazrpash said, for his part. 
“Armenia could play a key role in the framework of the [transnational] 
North-South transport corridor. I hope that the project will be implemented 
rapidly.”

Armenia - Amenian and Iranian officials attend a signing ceremony in Yerevan, 
.

The project co-financed by the Armenian government and the Eurasian Development 
Bank covers the highway section stretching from Agarak, an Armenian town 
adjacent to the Iranian border, to the Kajaran mountain pass, the highest in 
Armenia. About two-thirds of the road is to be expanded and modernized while the 
remaining 11 kilometers will be built from scratch over the next three years. In 
Sanosian’s words, the Iranians will construct 17 bridges and two tunnels in the 
mountainous area.

Another, much longer tunnel planned by the Armenian side will cut through the 
Kajaran pass. The government has organized an international tender for its 
construction, which will further shorten travel time between the two neighboring 
states.

Bazrpash also announced that the Yerevan and Tehran have agreed to build a new 
bridge over the Arax river that marks the Armenian-Iranian border. The two 
governments will set up a joint working group for that purpose, he told 
reporters.

The Iranian minister’s presence at the signing ceremony appeared to also 
underscore the geopolitical significance of the project.

Armenia - A view of the Arax river separating Armenia and Iran.

Azerbaijan’s recent takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh raised more fears in Yerevan 
that Baku will also attack Armenia to open an exterritorial land corridor to 
Nakhichevan passing through Syunik, the sole Armenian province bordering Iran. 
Azerbaijani leaders regularly demand such a corridor. A senior Armenian diplomat 
claimed on October 8 that an Azerbaijani attack on Syunik may be “a matter of 
weeks.”

Iran has repeatedly warned against attempts to strip it of the common border and 
transport links with Armenia. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi reportedly told 
visiting Armenian and Azerbaijani officials early this month that the corridor 
sought by Baku is “resolutely opposed by Iran” because it would give NATO a 
“foothold” in the region.

NATO member Turkey fully supports the Azerbaijani demands. Its troops began on 
Monday a fresh military exercise with the Azerbaijani army in Nakhichevan and 
parts of mainland Azerbaijan close to Syunik. The drills reportedly involve 
3,000 soldiers and several Turkish F-16 warplanes.

The United States and the European Union voiced strong support for Armenia’s 
territorial integrity following the latest escalation in Karabakh. The U.S. 
State Department said on October 15 that “any infringement of that sovereignty 
and territorial integrity would bring serious consequences.”


Reposted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
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