Asia Times
[Turkey is exploring multiple fighter jet options in its quest for
strategic independence]
By Gabriel Honrada
February 14, 2022
Turkey is looking at alternatives to the F-35 fighter jet after US
sanctions and its disqualification from the F-35 program.
Turkey had previously announced plans to acquire 100 F-35 jets, but
the US removed the country from its program in 2019 after it bought
S-400 surface-to-air missiles from Russia.
Turkey insisted it had turned to Russia after failing to reach an
agreement with the US over acquiring the Patriot missile systems, and
that the S-400 poses no risk to the F-35.
However, US officials warned that operating the S-400 near the F-35
could allow Russian intelligence services to learn about its
capabilities, helping Russia and other S-400 operators to develop
counter-measures against it.
Despite US sanctions, last year Turkey made a formal request to the US
for 40 F-16 fighters and 80 modernization kits for its existing units.
If the US chooses to grant Turkey’s request, such a move may repair
frayed relations between the two countries.
However, the US has significant reservations in approving Turkey’s
request, among them Turkey’s human rights record and the US pro-Greece
lobby.
Turkey has also embarked on an indigenous fighter jet program that
aims to produce a working aircraft by 2025 to be put into deployment
by 2029. Turkey’s TF-X fighter program was started in 2016 and aims to
replace the country’s aging F-16 fleet.
The TF-X fighter is envisioned to be a twin-engine multi-role
aircraft, focusing on air-to-air capabilities, but will also have
air-to-surface roles.
The TF-X will feature both US and Russian technologies. It is planned
to be powered by a license-produced General Electric F110 jet engine.
However, analysts say this choice is too optimistic, as the US
Congress will most likely block jet engine technology transfers to
Turkey.
Russian alternatives
Turkey is also looking at Russia as an alternative source of key
fighter technologies, such as jet engines, avionics, propulsion
systems, radars, sensors, ejection seats and data link systems.
In line with developing its own fighter, Turkey is already producing
its own light fighter jet trainer aircraft. Last month, Turkey
announced it was beginning mass-production of its TAI Hürjet
supersonic jet trainer, an advanced jet trainer and light attack
aircraft in the class of the Boeing T-7, the KAI T-50 and Yakovlev
Yak-130.
Turkey has also offered this type of trainer jet to Malaysia’s light
combat aircraft program.
Another option for Turkey is to buy Russian jets. After the US removed
Turkey from the F35 program, Turkey threatened to buy the Su-35 and
possibly the newer Su-57 jets from Russia.
Russia has already said it was willing to sell its Su-35 fighter jet
should Turkey want to buy it.
However, Turkey may face interoperability and cost concerns if it
decided to buy Russian fighters. Turkey’s air force is built around
the F-16 jet and shifting to another type would entail replacing
entire training programs, supply and logistics chains and maintenance
regimes.
Plus, the prospect of harsher US sanctions, antagonizing NATO and the
poor state of the Turkish economy could serve as a further deterrent
to such plans. Also, the cost of this major shift may prove to be
prohibitive.
Apart from buying Russian jets, Turkey may also look at acquiring
Chinese fighters. Turkey may look into acquiring China’s J-10C
Firebird fighter, which Pakistan previously ordered. In addition,
Turkey and China already have a substantial defense relationship, with
Turkey developing its Bora missile based on China’s B-611 ballistic
missile.
However, buying Chinese fighters would present the same
interoperability, cost and sanctions issues with Russian aircraft,
although the J-10C would cost substantially less than Russian
airframes. Western analysts have speculated about the Turkish
acquisition of Chinese fighters for some time.
Paul Iddon, an analyst for Forbes, wrote last month: “The J-10C is a
considerably cheaper and arguably more advanced 4.5-generation jet
than the Russian Sukhoi Su-35 since it has active electronically
scanned array (AESA) radar.
“The Su-35 still relies on less advanced passive electronically
scanned array (PESA) radar. The J-10C is also compatible with China’s
PL-15 long-range beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM).”
The China connection
This purchase would deepen Turkey’s drift into China’s sphere of
influence. Considering Turkey’s frayed political and military
relations with the West, China is poised to position itself as an
alternative partner in view of its geopolitical interests.
Under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Turkey-China cooperation
covers transportation, energy, telecommunications, intelligence and
cyberwarfare.
Just as China’s money helps shore up Turkey’s economy, Turkey’s
potential purchase of China’s J-10C might provide a substitute for
domestic or Russian fighters. China’s J-10C fighters can also deepen
the already substantial Turkish-Pakistan defense relationship.
Turkey is building four MILGEM corvettes for Pakistan and has
modernized the latter’s Agosta 90B submarines. These jets could
facilitate further training and modernization programs between Turkey
and Pakistan.
By hedging its fighter options between competing parties and
developing its own fighter program, Turkey has signaled its desire to
play an independent role in strategic affairs.