Pashinyan: Armenia recognizes Azerbaijan’s territory of 86,600 square kilometers

Panorama
Armenia – May 17 2023

Nikol Pashinyan delivered a speech at the 4th Council of Europe summit in Reykjavik, Iceland on Wednesday. Below is his full statement published by the Armenian premier's office.

“Ladies and Gentlemen,

Based on our own experience we can say that war is the biggest threat to democracy. For a long time, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict served as an excuse for the lack of democracy in Armenia.

In 2018, our velvet revolution provided great democratic developments in Armenia, but in September 2020 Azerbaijan attacked Nagorno-Karabakh, and Armenia had to get involved in the war. Many still think that the cause of the war was Armenia’s aspiration for democracy in the region, where democracy may be viewed with suspicion.

On November 9, 2020, I signed a trilateral ceasefire agreement, which became a reason for attacks on the state institutions, the Government and the National Assembly, because the unleashed war was apparently also aimed at changing the government in Armenia.

But we were able to maintain the country's democracy. Then we decided to conduct early elections to safeguard public accord. On May 12, 2021, two days after my and National Assembly's resignation came into effect for the purpose of the elections, Azerbaijan invaded the territory of Armenia.

If we diverted from our way to democracy at that time, we would have lost our statehood, but we provided the internationally recognized free and democratic elections, and shaped the agenda of peace.

But our agenda of peace was also attacked. In November, 2021 and in September 2022, Azerbaijan again invaded the territory of Armenia.

On October 6, 2022, with support of the French President Macron and President of EU Council Michel, we reached an agreement with the President of Azerbaijan that we normalize our relations on the basis of 1991 Almaty Declaration, according to which administrative borders of the former soviet Armenia and soviet Azerbaijan would become our state borders.

Three days ago with the mediation of the president of the European Council, we made a step further emphasizing that Armenia recognizes Azerbaijan's territory of 86.6 thousand square kilometers, and Azerbaijan recognizes the territory of Armenia of 29.8 thousand square kilometers.

But as a result of illegal blockade of Lachin Corridor, the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh have been under siege for 5 months and are facing humanitarian crisis. To send an international fact-finding mission to Lachin Corridor and Nagorno-Karabakh is of high priority today, and to start Baku-Stepanakert negotiations aimed at providing security and human rights for the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh under the international mechanism, is of vital importance.

Assisting in addressing these issues, the Council of Europe will promote democracy and stability in the South Caucasus."

Pashinyan meets with Armenian WWII veterans in Moscow

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 15:25, 9 May 2023

YEREVAN, MAY 9, ARMENPRESS. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held a meeting on May 9 with Armenian veterans of WWII Rosalia Abgaryan and Nerses Simonyan in Moscow. The two veterans of the Great Patriotic War traveled to the Russian capital from Yerevan for the May 9 Victory Day parade.

“The Prime Minister congratulated the veterans on the holiday, talked with them and wished robust health,” the Prime Minister’s Office said in a press release.




AFP: US hosts Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks

May 1 2023
    Léon BRUNEAU

The United States hosted negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on Monday, seeking to quell recent tension over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The two sides have gone to war twice, in 1990 and 2020, leaving tens of thousands dead, and clashes regularly erupt over the territory, an Armenian-majority region inside Azerbaijan.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoya and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov before four days of talks at a State Department facility outside Washington.

On April 23 Azerbaijan announced it had set up a checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor, the only land link between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, sparking an angry response from Yerevan.

Armenia views the move as a violation of the cease-fire negotiated between the two sides.

Blinken spoke Sunday with Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, expressing concerns about the checkpoint, which he said "undermines efforts to establish confidence in the peace process," according to State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.

Blinken "emphasized the importance of reopening the Lachin corridor to commercial and private vehicles as soon as possible," Miller said in a statement.

Speaking on grounds of anonymity Monday, a US official said the talks aim more at "an agreement on normalization of relations" rather than a peace treaty.

"Our goal is to make sure the ministers can sit down and talk to each other," the official said.

The United States expects the two sides to have a forthright and frank discussion, the official said, adding "all the issues are being discussed."

– Pressure to remove checkpoint –

Moscow brokered a ceasefire between Yerevan and Baku after the latest bout of fighting in 2020, and posted peacekeepers along the Lachin corridor.

With Russia bogged down in Ukraine and unwilling to strain ties with Azerbaijan's key ally Turkey, the United States and European Union have sought to steer a thaw in ties.

France's Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna visited the two countries last week aiming to cool down tensions over the border checkpoint.

She visited Baku and then Yerevan, urging Azerbaijan to restore "unhindered movement" through the Lachin corridor.

In Yerevan she said in a news conference that Armenia's territorial integrity must be respected.

"The purpose of the visit is to reaffirm France's support for the Armenian government and people," Colonna said.

But Azerbaijan reiterated that it had set up a checkpoint on "Azerbaijan's territory."

Colonna said it was important for Armenia and Azerbaijan to resume negotiations to secure a resolution to their decades-long standoff.

"We encourage you to resolutely take this path," Colonna said, adding this was "the only way to achieve a just and lasting peace."

Blinken has already taken part in two trilateral meetings with the two Caucasus rivals, in November last year and then again in February on the margins of the international security conference in Munich, Germany.

On Saturday Blinken spoke with Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, emphasizing the importance of peace discussions and pledging continued US support.

lb/pmh/bgs

https://news.yahoo.com/us-hosts-armenia-azerbaijan-peace-172556528.html

Shadow Enemies Cause Iran Jitters

May 2 2023
By Emil Avdaliani
May 2, 2023
Azerbaijan and Iran want to maintain pragmatic relations. Yet that’s becoming increasingly difficult.

Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan are reaching a critical point. The two neighbors have never been friendly, but pragmatism driven by growing bilateral trade and at times overlapping geopolitical imperatives often aided the search for common ground. 

This changed after the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh when Azerbaijan decisively defeated Armenia, re-established control over the lost territories, and has ever since pressed its military and economic advantage to force Armenia into a peace deal that would recognize the two countries’ territorial integrity (as currently defined). 

As one of the big three powers bordering the South Caucasus states, Iran would view Azerbaijan’s assertiveness with close interest at the best of times; the fact that it is aimed at its close friends in Armenia makes it a matter of deep concern. Iran would likely intervene should Armenia’s internationally recognized borders be challenged. While Armenia’s southernmost Syunik corridor provides Iran with land access to the country’s capital Yerevan and Georgia to the north, it also provides the east-west route between Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhchivan. There is a lot at stake for both sides. 

That helps explain the rhetorical barrages now regularly fired between Azerbaijan and Iran. Each accuses the other of interfering in its internal affairs, while Azerbaijan has made a series of arrests of alleged pro-Iranian figures across the country. On March 28, the Azeri MP Fazil Mustafa, widely known for his criticism of Iran, was shot and wounded outside his home. That followed a deadly attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran earlier this year, while in early April, Azerbaijan expelled four Iranian diplomats for “provocative actions”. 

Iran has chosen the dual messaging of deterrence and diplomacy. On the one hand, it talks to Azerbaijan seemingly to dial down tensions, but on the other, the Islamic Republic has upped its military game by staging exercises along its border with Azerbaijan. Much of their mutual border runs along the River Aras, making Iran’s river crossing drills particularly pointed. 

Were there to be open conflict, the stakes are high and would have broader geopolitical repercussions.  

Azerbaijan has traditionally close ties to Turkey and has lately been seen as a critical energy partner for the European Union (EU.) But it is Azerbaijan’s expanding ties with Israel that really make Iran jittery. Baku inaugurated its embassy in Tel Aviv and on March 29 Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said he had agreed with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ceyhun Bayramov to “form a united front against Iran”, though Baku later tried to carefully distance itself from the statement. 

The two countries shared, “the same perception of the Iranian threat. The Iranian ayatollah regime threatens both our regions, finances terrorism, and destabilizes the entire Middle East. We must act together to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear capabilities,” Cohen said. Iran demanded an explanation for the trumpeted strategic partnership between the two countries, then complained when none was received. 

It is notable that not only has Iran’s nuclear facilities and scientists come under attack in recent years, but so too has military production infrastructure, including some connected to ballistic missile production and drones. US and other officials have been quoted as linking two such attacks this year to Israel. Azerbaijan was not mentioned in either case, although there have been stories in Israeli and other media suggesting potential Israeli access to Azerbaijani airfields and the Iranian media regularly promotes this narrative. 

Iran has further worries. Azeri Turks make up around a quarter of Iran’s population and are concentrated in the northwest of the country, near the Azerbaijan border. They joined the huge women-led protests which began in 2022 which at times appeared to leave the government close to impotent.  

Azerbaijan has also been investing in closer ties with Iraqi Kurdistan, another neighbor with whom Iran has hostile relations. Kurds too are a discontented Iranian minority and also joined the 2022 protests.  

For Iran, the South Caucasus have been low on the traditional list of priorities. It has few pro-Iranian proxies to employ and nor has it possessed the soft power or economic muscle to influence the region in the way that Turkey and Russia could.  

But the Middle East and South Caucasus are becoming much more closely linked. Regional security and energy resources underpin the growing interconnection. Russia and Turkey, which since the 2010s have been active in increasing their military and economic footprint in the wider Middle East, now, as the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war demonstrated, consider the South Caucasus part of a greater geopolitical game that stretches from the Mediterranean to the Caspian seas. The trend is clear: for the first time since the early 19th century when the Russian empire began its expansion into the South Caucasus and effectively cut the region off from the Middle East, the two regions are again growing closer.  

The West should pay close attention to these developments because there is a risk that it may be shut out from South Caucasus altogether. Given that the region is increasingly important for Europe in particular, as a source and transportation route for energy, it is well worthwhile to pursue policies to build a more secure space.  

This will require a new approach, less dependent on sugared words about democracy and peace, and more reliant on economic realities and the military balance of power. It is in these last two areas that the West is lagging far behind its opponents. 

Emil Avdaliani is a professor at European University and the Director of Middle East Studies at the Georgian think-tank, Geocase. 

Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.


Belgian,French politicians, public figures condemn Azerbaijani checkpoint installation on Lachin Corridor

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 13:56, 5 May 2023

YEREVAN, MAY 5, ARMENPRESS. 32 Belgian and French politicians, public figures and representatives of organizations issued a joint statement condemning the establishment of the Azerbaijani checkpoint on the Hakari bridge, on the Lachin corridor in Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh, the  European Armenian Federation for Justice and Democracy (EAFJD) said in a press release.

In the statement, they call on the Azerbaijani government to fulfill its obligations, immediately open the Lachin corridor, remove the checkpoint, end the hostile policy against the native Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh/ Artsakh and act as a responsible member of the international community.

Below is the list of signatories of the statement:

Allessia Claes

Karl Vanlouwe

Pierre d'Argent

Bernard Coulie

Georges Dallemagne

Emmanuel De Bock

Julie de Groote

Michel De Maegd

Mark Demesmaeker

Peter De Roover

Jens De Rycke

Sakis Dimitrakopoulos

Christos Doulkeridis

Hervé Doyen

André Du Bus

Josy Dubié

Aymeric Fuseau

Alda Greoli

Marc Hendrickx

Ward Kennes

Benoit Lannoo

Annick Lambrecht

Marie Lecocq

Georgios Sidiropoulos

Simone Susskind

Julie Rizkallah Szmaj

Annabel Tavernier

Thijs Verbeurgt

Julien Uyttendaele

Gaëtan Van Goidsenhoven

Els Van Hoof

Karim Van Overmeire

PM Pashinyan sends congratulatory message to the Prime Minister of Poland

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 11:19, 3 May 2023

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan sent a congratulatory message to Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland, on the occasion of the national holiday. The message reads as follows,

"Your Excellency,

On behalf of the Government of the Republic of Armenia and the Armenian people, I send my warmest congratulations to you and the friendly people of Poland on the occasion of the national holiday of the Republic of Poland, the Constitution Day.

I am confident that the mutually beneficial and continuously developing cooperation between the two peoples, based on centuries-old friendship, will continue to develop and expand both at the bilateral and multilateral levels, including within the framework of the Armenia-EU Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement.

Taking the opportunity, I reaffirm our readiness to bring the realization of the significant potential of cooperation between our countries to the maximum for the benefit and welfare of our peoples”.

AW: Children of Genocide survivors honored at RI ANC flag raisings

The Armenian tricolor after being raised in North Providence

Descendants of survivors offered forceful and heartfelt statements on the occasion of the 108th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide at the Armenian National Committee of Rhode Island (ANC-RI) flag raising events held in North Providence and Cranston on Friday, April 21 this year.

The North Providence ceremony was held in the morning with dozens of people in attendance to see the tricolor raised at the town hall. Mayor Charles Lombardi once again hosted the event, which was the first flag raising organized by the ANC-RI in the state more than 20 years ago. ANC-RI chairman Steve Elmasian welcomed the crowd, and Rev. Fr. Kapriel Nazarian of Sts. Vartanantz Armenian Apostolic Church offered prayers of remembrance for the sainted martyrs, as well as for the people of Artsakh as they continue to endure the inhumane blockade by Azerbaijan. Reverend Hagop Manjelikian of the Armenian Evangelical Church closed the morning with prayer. 

ANC-RI chair Steve Elmasian addresses the crowd in North Providence

Reiterating his pledge to hold the flag raising every year, Mayor Lombardi declared April 24 as Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day in the town and state, while recognizing the substantial contributions of the Armenian community to the state of RI. He also introduced Margaret Moorachian, a resident of North Providence for 53 years, as the honoree and presented her with a proclamation from the town.

North Providence Mayor Charles Lombardi

“I stand here both honored and humbled as an American Armenian and the daughter of Armenian Genocide survivors, Garabed and Tarviz Topalian,” said Moorachian, as her children George and Nancy and grandchildren Luke, Faye and Avedis looked on. Moorachian shared her parents’ story of love and survival, as well as the values they instilled in their five children: “loyalty, family, community, sacrifice, kindness, generosity, work and celebration,” along with education.

North Providence honoree Margaret Moorachian

“Since ancient history, Armenia has been a persecuted nation,” Moorachian said. “Yet its people have never given up and fought for their beliefs. Perhaps it is this heritage that helped my parents to be resilient despite the traumas they experienced. Our parents not only survived but thrived,” she stressed before hoisting the flag with assistance from her grandchildren.

Margaret Moorachian raising the flag in North Providence with help from her grandchildren

That evening, Cranston City Hall saw a substantial crowd turn out for its flag raising. AYF Providence “Varantian” Chapter president and Homenetmen Scout leader Rosdom Mkrtschjan served as emcee for a robust program of speakers, including several elected officials who stated their commitment to the Rhode Island Armenian community, to recognition of the Armenian Genocide, to the designation of April 24 as Armenian Genocide remembrance day and to the importance of genocide education in the state’s schools, as indicated by law now. Among those were host Mayor Kenneth Hopkins, Lieutenant Governor Sabina Matos, Secretary of State Gregg Amore, State Senator David Tikoian and State Representative Barbara Ann Fenton Fung.

Rev. Fr. Nazarian offered the opening prayer. Taleen Donoyan beautifully sang the Star Spangled Banner and “Mer Hairenik” as the Homenetmen Scouts stood honor guard. Rev. Fr. Shnork Souin of Sts. Sahag and Mesrob Armenian Apostolic Church closed the evening with prayer and unified singing of the prayer of resurrection. 

Mayor Hopkins said he was honored to continue the flag raising tradition in Cranston, begun almost two decades ago, as he introduced the evening’s honoree Jasper “Jake” Bedrosian, a resident of the city for more than 50 years and retired manager of the Garden City post office. Bedrosian received citations from the city of Cranston, Lieutenant Gov. Matos and Sec. of State Amore and a plaque from the ANC-RI.

And then, the descendants of Armenian Genocide survivors took center stage, including the honoree.

ANC-RI member Dr. Fotini Dionisopoulos

Dr. Fotini Dionisopoulos, a granddaughter of Genocide survivors, offered remarks on behalf of the ANC-RI, congratulating Bedrosian as an exemplary member of the Armenian community and one of many “who have contributed positively to this great city with your good character, citizenship, work ethic and warmth, while keeping your Armenian spirit alive and thriving amongst your families and communities.” Dr. Dionisopoulos, who is a beloved pediatric dentist in the community, spoke about the impact of the ANCA’s work and the importance of supporting its grassroots efforts.

“When I was a young girl, every April 24, I am sure many of you remember North Burial Ground Genocide remembrances,” recalled Dr. Dionisopoulos. “There our survivors, including my grandmother Arossiag, would gather and would walk in together to ‘Hanchetzek.’ Every year, the number got lower and lower. And then they were gone,” she said, stressing the need to continue advocating for those who have now passed.

The youth of the community, one from each of the three RI Armenian churches, took the podium and brought the crowd to thunderous applause.

Garen Zeitounian of the Armenian Evangelical Church went first. “I have great-great grandparents who lived through the Armenian Genocide. Although I never met them, it is because of their faith I am able to stand here today and talk about what being Armenian means to me,” began Zeitounian. “First, I am able to go freely and worship at the Armenian Evangelical Church. Ever since I can remember, Sundays are for going to church and spending time with family. Because Armenia was the first Christian nation, my parents taught me the importance of going to church and having Jesus in my heart. Second, I get to go to Armenian school, which is not always my favorite, but I do know the importance of it…Because of my ancestors I am able to play my dumbeg at Armenian events, something that I love to do. Because of Armenian school I now know how to read and write in Armenian which is something that I’m really proud of…It is our job to talk, remember and keep the Armenian culture going. Now more than ever with what is happening in Artsakh, we need to pray that those Armenians will survive and continue to prove how strong we are,” he concluded.

Next came John Stickler of Sts. Sahag and Mesrob Armenian Apostolic Church. “When the atrocities of 1915 began, my great-grandmother Shooshanig Avedisian was saved by German missionaries who brought her to an orphanage where she was educated and kept safe. Years later, she arrived in Pawtucket, RI, where she and her new husband made a life for themselves,” shared Stickler. “My great-grandmother worked very hard not just taking care of her young family but also educating other Armenians, who had also just immigrated to the United States. She also helped many fellow Armenians find their relatives after being scattered during the Genocide. She worked in local factories, doing whatever she could to provide for her family and also found work for many others…it is very clear the Turks did not succeed in 1915, but rather, they failed miserably. The survivors overcame many hardships but did not give up and made new lives for themselves, thus creating a new Armenia,” he forcefully finished.

Ryder Norigian of Sts. Vartanantz Armenian Apostolic Church was the final youth speaker, who explained the importance of remembering the Armenian Genocide and our holy martyrs on April 24. “We are all here to honor and remember their sacrifices for us. While this is great for one day of the year, it is a continual process, and we need to do more,” stressed Norigian. “More involves talking about our culture and keeping it alive. Some ways I keep it alive is by talking about it in school. As an example, in my 8th grade social studies class, we were studying a world map, and for that day we were looking at the Middle East. I didn’t see Armenia, so I explained to my teacher about Armenia and ended up teaching and talking to my class about our history and culture,” he explained. Norigian concluded with the following: “Remember who you are and where you come from. Secondly, with assimilation we are growing farther from our ancestors; my great-grandparents who went through it have passed, and my grandmother who witnessed her parents go through it firsthand is slowly coming to an age where she could soon pass… Finally, never let your Armenian culture and spirit die; involve yourself and teach people about who you are.”

Cranston honoree Jasper “Jake” Bedrosian

The evening’s honoree was the final speaker. Bedrosian spoke about the children of the Genocide, specifically his parents, Akabi Kibarian and Hampartsoum Bedrosian, survivors who came to the US via Syria and France, respectively. Since neither was able to attend school, they worked to help the families who sponsored them in this country. Bedrosian shared his novel experiences as a young student of immigrant parents with the goal to learn English. “In an Armenian house, homework meant two things. Homework was, when you got out of school, you studied from three to six, your school homework. After supper, job lot people came in, and you did jewelry homework,” he said, explaining how he learned mathematics at a young age. He expressed his desire to learn and grow in his community. “I wanted to learn the English language but retain my Armenian language,” he said, regaling the crowd with his AYF and school exploits and successes as a championship wrestling coach. “It’s not how you start your race in life; it’s how you finish,” Bedrosian quoted coach Bill Parcells. “And Jasper is not finished,” he concluded to cheers from the crowd.

Jasper “Jake” Bedrosian with young speakers Ryder Norigian, Garen Zeitounian and John Stickler (Photo: Steve Elmasian)

In a fitting and emotional conclusion to the evening and the day, Bedrosian raised the flag as Homenetmen Scouts sang “Mer Hairenik.”

Jasper Bedrosian raising the Armenian flag as the Homenetmen scouts salute and sing “Mer Hairenik”

Following the event, Ara and Sevan Janigian of Sonia’s Near East Market & Deli generously hosted refreshments at their location around the corner from Cranston City Hall.

Editor
Pauline Getzoyan is editor of the Armenian Weekly and an active member of the Rhode Island Armenian community. A longtime member of the Providence ARF and ARS, she also is a former member of the ARS Central Executive Board. A longtime advocate for genocide education through her work with the ANC of RI, Pauline is co-chair of the RI branch of The Genocide Education Project. In addition, she has been an adjunct instructor of developmental reading and writing in the English department at the Community College of Rhode Island since 2005.


Armenia ready for CSTO mission deployment – Pashinyan

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 13:01,

YEREVAN, APRIL 20, ARMENPRESS. Not only Russia but Armenia is also ready for the deployment of a CSTO monitoring mission to its border with Azerbaijan, PM Nikol Pashinyan said.

“Not only Russia is ready, Armenia is also ready. We’ve outlined the circle of our concerns, and basically our desire is for the possible mission to be effective. This is important for both Armenia, the CSTO and the region. And we continue to work in this direction,” he said.

Pashinyan urged to differentiate the CSTO from the EU mission when asked on the work of the EU monitors.

“The CSTO has security obligations towards the Republic of Armenia, so does Armenia, which, as a member state, and Chairman in 2022, it fully implemented. The EU mission can’t be placed in the same dimension as the CSTO mission. Thus, our expectations from the CSTO mission must be a lot higher than from the EU mission,” Pashinyan said.

He added that the EU mission is a long-term mission, and it’s only been two months since its launch, and it hasn’t even fully deployed yet and the process in ongoing.

AW: AYF Camp Haiastan gives iconic “tornig” a friend in new logo

FRANKLIN, Mass.  Ahead of the highly-anticipated 2023 summer season, the Armenian Youth Federation (AYF) Camp Haiastan Board of Directors is thrilled to reveal Camp Haiastan’s update to the iconic “tornig.” This is the last step in the strategic initiative that was launched in May of 2022 with the refreshed logo of the formal camp logo and the recent announcement of the camp’s newly developed brand and website.

The emblematic “tornig” icon will always be a key part of Camp Haiastan’s branding, and we believe that these new enhancements are a visual commitment to ensure that the camp continues to broaden its awareness and ensure that our founding mission of inclusivity remains at the forefront of our work.

This positive step forward is another fulfillment of the Camp promise to “make it better than it was” and is a strong way to begin another fantastic summer at 722 Summer Street.

Located in Franklin, Massachusetts, AYF Camp Haiastan, was founded in 1951 and is the oldest Armenian camp in the United States. The Camp prides itself on providing a healthy and safe experience to Armenian-American youth to help them foster their Armenian identity and establish lifelong friendships.


Iran hosts Armenian security chief amid unabating tension with Azerbaijan

The story: Reiterating Iran’s opposition to any border changes in the South Caucasus, the secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has hosted his Armenian counterpart in Tehran.

The meeting comes amid rising tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran. In the most recent escalation between the two neighbors, Baku has expelled four Iranian diplomats—with the Islamic Republic promptly declaring its intention to reciprocate the move.

The coverage: Armen Grigoryan, the secretary of Armenia's Security Council, met Ali Shamkhani in the Iranian capital on Apr. 9.

  • Shamkhani told the visiting top Armenian official that Iran opposes "any geographical changes in the Caucasus" because it would only "cause tension."
  • The SNSC secretary was referring to Baku’s plans to establish a corridor to the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan. Iran fears that the route will cut its land border with Armenia.
  • Shamkhani hailed economic ties with Armenia and insisted that annual trade of 3B USD "is an achievable target." Current bilateral trade is just over one-tenth of that figure.

Grigoryan spoke about economic cooperation with Tehran and particularly emphasized a proposed deal to transfer natural gas from Turkmenistan to Armenia via Iran.

  • Iranian Petroleum Minister Javad Owji said in May 2022 that talks on the gas swap deal had started.
  • Tehran has had a similar deal in place with Baku since Nov. 2021. In June 2022, the two sides agreed to double the volume of gas reaching Azerbaijan.

The meeting in Tehran took place just days after the foreign ministers of Iran and Azerbaijan held two telephone conversations amid a deterioration in ties.

  • The Iranian foreign ministry said in a statement on Apr. 8 that Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ceyhun Bayramov spoke "extensively" on the phone over Apr. 7-8.
  • The top diplomats spoke "frankly and transparently" and discussed how to address "problems and misunderstandings," according to the foreign ministry's read-out.
  • Referring to alleged Israeli "conspiracies" against regional security and unity, Amir-Abdollahian told Bayramov that "only enemies" benefit from disputes in the region.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani stated on Apr. 10 that he has a "positive assessment" of the phone conversations between the foreign ministers.

  • "We will try to take the next steps in coordination with the Azerbaijani side," Kanani told reporters.

Azerbaijan on Apr. 6 declared four Iranian diplomats persona non grata over "provocative actions."

  • The following day, Kanani criticized the expulsions as an "emotional and unconstructive" decision and said Iran intends to take reciprocal action.

The context/analysis: Azerbaijan and Iran have for years been at odds over Baku's growing relationship with Israel. More recently, tensions have also surged over Azerbaijan’s alleged attempt to cut off Iran’s land connection to Armenia.

  • Israel and Turkey reportedly aided Azerbaijan during its war with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020. Iran has long been an ally of Armenia, though it was careful to avoid taking sides during the conflict.
  • Azerbaijan captured large swaths of territory during the 2020 war, which ended with a Russian-brokered peace deal. Under the accord, Armenia agreed to the establishment of a corridor along its southern Syunik region linking the Azerbaijani mainland to the Nakhchivan exclave.
  • Iranian media see the corridor as a Turkey-backed attempt to cut Iran off from Armenia as Ankara seeks to expand its influence in the South Caucasus. Iranian officials, meanwhile, have repeatedly warned against "border changes" in the region.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf declared on Jan. 10 that "misunderstandings" with Baku had been "resolved" after meeting his Azerbaijani counterpart Sahiba Qafarova.

  • However, tensions have only worsened this year—especially following the deadly Jan. 27 attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran as well as Baku’s opening of a diplomatic mission in Israel on Mar. 29.
  • Azerbaijan ordered the evacuation of its Tehran embassy on the day of the attack, which left the head of security dead and two others wounded. The alleged assailant is reported to have been motivated by a personal dispute.

The future: An armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Iran would promptly drag in several external actors, pushing the South Caucasus into a second major confrontation in recent years. As such, neither side seeks all-out confrontation.

  • The escalatory discourse and diplomatic spats have reduced space for a political resolution to rising tensions. These dynamics are made more complicated by Israel and Turkey’s separate contests with Iran for regional influence.
  • If Baku and Tel Aviv pursue closer military and security collaboration that is perceived as a threat by Tehran, it could trigger targeted Iranian military action against select sites on Azerbaijani soil.