WAR IS NOT THE WORST CHOICE
Story from Lragir.am News:
Published: 14:21:16 – 10/06/2011
Interview with Igor Muradyan, political scientist Mr. Muradyan,
the settlement of the Karabakh conflict has stepped into a deciding
stage. How would you describe the current stage of the talks and what
are the expectations?
Nothing unexpected and unpredictable is happening. Armenia is being
led toward capitulation to thwart the processes which favor the
rapprochement of Russia and Turkey. The United States and Europe
would not wish to oust them from the Black Sea and the Caucasus
and are trying to distance Armenia and Azerbaijan from Russia
and Turkey. At the same time, any course of developments supposes
national catastrophe for Armenia, which is expressed in the form of
the principles of Madrid. Earlier it was not, however, the signing of
the protocols of Zurich convinced the great powers that the Armenian
government is ready for any agreement and any terms and conditions.
However, there are more important basic grounds for this.
It should be noted that 15 years ago Nagorno-Karabakh Republic had
more political advantages than a number of other states referred
to as “breakaways” but now NKR looks like the least recognized
and the least legitimate of them. It happened in the result of the
constant readiness of the political government of Armenia to meet the
conditions of external parties, which culminated in the agreement to
the principles of Madrid, which are a national catastrophe in any of
their forms and variants.
NKR has never done a single step toward the recognition of its
independence and has wasted historically valuable time, its previous
position gained in the first war in Karabakh. Various groups of
political activists in NKR were played down, pitched into conformism,
and at the moment there is no hope for change of public moods. At
the same time, NKR has become more vulnerable, and unlike other
“breakaways”, it got stuck in the state of a sluggish war.
The policy of Armenia continues to be conducted in the framework of
external rules and demands, in addition, it is considered that the
tactics of protracting the war will bring advantages, however it is
not clear what advantages are expected. In return for the territories
and return of refugees we get a referendum which itself will destroy
everything connected with the establishment of Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic and many other political decisions. This referendum is bluff
and idiotism which is manipulated by the great powers. In the most
difficult situation is the person who refers to him as the president
of Karabakh because in accordance with the plot he must do the most
disgusting work.
Apparently, it is time for the Karabakh government to remember how
they tamed the ARF Dashnaktsutyun Party and barred the donors of
international organizations from supporting them. Who are they going
to rely on now? However, one way or another, there will be Armenian
officers who will have to lead the troops to more than jeopardized
positions. Women will spit in their faces, men will refer to them
with widely accepted phrases, and their children will be children of
betrayers forever.
As to more concrete evaluations rather than political and emotional
ones, now Azerbaijan has no reason to pursue certain “outcome” of the
talks. The Azerbaijani leaders realize that they are “bound” to another
lasting process in which they will definitely obey external factors,
though only regarding external political issues. They realized that
the Armenian nation has lost the Karabakh history forever, while the
Azerbaijanis wish to get more and control the entire South Caucasus
in future, and they “feel” the power inside them that will enable
them to do it. Azerbaijan will have to pay a high price for it but
it is ready to pay it.
It was led to this situation by the policy of great powers which did
not stop to reiterate territorial integrity and similar bullshit,
which is based on the Armenian blood. Now it is time when talks,
arguments and propaganda have no importance. It would be good if the
president of Armenia finally accepted the capitulation with the total
support of the company of his opponent-companion, the first president.
At least, it would be a solution. For the president and his team, a
quite favorable situation has emerged when the opinions and stances of
the government fully comply with the stance of the actual opposition.
At one time, possibly soon, the Armenians will realize that the war
was not the worst choice for them. The main historical shortcoming
of Armenia would be rejection of the perspective to destroy the
Armenian state, at least in its current configuration. Now it is the
most convenient time for a war. The political government of Azerbaijan
continues bluffing and fears war. The Azerbaijani generals and officers
are even more afraid of war and have no proper suggestions regarding
a possible war. The generals have asked themselves the question what
the war with Armenia means to them for many times. Not a single role
play has been held in the staffs of some states which would demonstrate
the possible success of Azerbaijan in the future war.
Are the major states, the United States, Russia and France, interested
in a war? What would their reaction be?
The western society, first of all the United States, are worried about
Azerbaijan’s foreign political ambitions, and concerns are not about
Azerbaijan’s tricks but the possibility that Turkey may use this. The
United States and their partners maintain a policy of restraining
Turkey, and attempts at and progress toward regional expansion by
Turkey are extremely unwanted. At the same time, there are growing
concerns about the rapprochement of Turkey and Russia. The Americans
and Europeans would not wish to allow this course of events and intend
to limit Turkey’s influence on the regions, including successful
cooperation between Turkey and Russia.
The best way out would be a controllable regional war, allowing
to disorganize Turkey and Russia’s plans in the Black Sea and the
Caucasian region. In addition, there is no doubt that the United
States and Europe wish to achieve demonstrated results, that is
put Azerbaijan to “order” through military defeat and suppress
its arrogance which irritates them so much. Once this outcome in
place, it will be possible to consider obedient implementation of
Azerbaijan’s commitments to transportation of gas to the West. The
most cynical thing is that the United States and the UK hope that in
this situation, like in the war in Ossetia, Russia will honor their
interests and guarantee the security of oil and gas pipelines.
In the given situation, the West hopes for a rapid outbreak of war
right after the adoption of the principles of Madrid, and Russia
hopes for holding the situation under control and maintaining its
influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan. None of the sides is confident
in the adequate continuation of the processes, and the great powers
suggest the most complicated and unfavorable outcome for them.
At the same time, whatever the course of processes and events,
there are two states which are reluctant to allow the exhaustion of
the Karabakh issue, weakening of Armenia and its armed forces. They
are the United States and Iran. Russia pursues complete exhaustion
of the Karabakh issue, deportation of Armenians from the province
of Karabakh and gradual deprivation of Armenia of sovereignty. The
Armenian political leadership is ready to accept any option, hoping
to get away with it. It will not get away with it.
Is Russia interested in the war?
Neither the United States nor Europe has such commitments to the
South Caucasus as Russia does. Through all sorts of agreements it has
involved itself in a highly vulnerable situation therefore Russia
is the least interested in military actions. However, in case the
Russians are confident that the war will shift to the territory of
Armenia, they will prefer total defeat of Armenia, which would allow
Russia to present to Azerbaijan this outcome as the result of its
“work”. However, this is the ideal plan. This outcome of war will
lead to intervention by the United States and NATO which may cross
out the current agreements reached in the Minsk Group-mediated talks
and create a brand new situation in the region.
Will the military actions be unfolded this summer?
No, the war will not start this summer. First of all, Azerbaijan is
not ready for a war yet. It needs to solve a number of military and
technical problems first. Secondly, these intentions must be approved
by Ankara while Ankara is not ready for a war, it has other problems,
for Ankara, the future war becomes an argument and possibility for
political maneuver, in other words, blackmail, and the Turks are not
likely to deprive themselves of this political resource. Finally,
Azerbaijan still believes in political luck and has enough reason
for it. Azerbaijan has chosen the tactics of sluggish war, and it is
what it wants. It wins this war definitely. The Armenians have not
answered this tactics duly.
You think the external sides are suggesting a war. But is it in the
interests of Armenia and do you see other ways of settlement of the
Karabakh issue?
I mean the external actors will allow a war under certain
circumstances. Russia reaches the goal of maintaining its influence
on the region. The United States tries to lead Azerbaijan to a state
of total obedience when military transit will be fully determined,
and exhaustion of oil and gas resources will be achieved not in 35-40
years but in 15-20 years. Besides, in the result of war Turkey’s
and Russian plans of rapprochement and military and political
cooperation in the Black Sea-Caucasian region and other directions
will be thwarted. Armenia has considerable possibilities to outplay
even such powerful external actors, as it was the case in the first
war in Karabakh. There are possibilities. They want to impose a war
of post-modern style and format on us and we must continue the nation
liberation war.
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