Author: Boshkezenian Garik

FOR WHAT WARS SHOULD RUSSIA BE PREPARED?

Source: Komsomolskaya Pravda, June 9, 2006, pp. 12, 13
Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)

THE OPINION OF HIGH-RANKING US OFFICERS AND RUSSIAN GENERALS ABOUT
POSSIBLE MILITARY CONFLICTS IN WHICH RUSSIA MAY BECOME ENTANGLED IN
THE NEAR FUTURE

The newspaper asked Russian generals in what conflicts the Russian
Army may become entangled in the near future.

High-ranking US officers recently posted the scenarios of wars,
which may break out in the near future, on the Internet. (…) The
newspaper examined these forecasts and asked Russian generals in what
conflicts the Russian Army may become entangled in the near future.

(…)

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

The Crimea

It’s not ruled out that Russian and Ukrainian warships will engage
each other in the Black Sea within ten years. Moscow and Kyiv agreed
that the Russian Black Sea fleet will leave Sevastopol in 2017.

However, the Russian Navy does not want to leave the city of Russia’s
glory. It’s possible that Ukraine will join NATO by that time and
organize provocations. Russia will strike back. Armed conflicts are
possible. Turkish, US and UK naval groups will intervene. Russian
seamen will have to leave Sevastopol after negotiations under pressure
from NATO.

Spitsbergen

Norway declared its 200-mile zone around Spitsbergen without
discussing this matter with Russia. Moscow does not acknowledge this
zone. Russian geologists found a substantial gas reserve on the shelf
of the Barents Sea. Norway seeks to explore it. Norwegian warships
already patrol this area. This irritates Russia. The scenario is as
follows: a naval group of the Northern fleet encircles the gas field.

Norway refuses to leave this zone. Russia declares an ultimatum and
opens fire after the timing is over. We hope that the crisis will be
settled diplomatically.

(…)

Trans-Dniester territory

Moldova seeks to gain control over the pro-Russian Trans-Dniester
territory and strengthens its army. The Moldovan Defense Ministry
has already prepared the plan of invasion on the left bank of the
Dniester River. Moldova demands that Russian servicemen (2,000
people) be withdrawn. The Moldovan Army may intervene in the
Trans-Dniester territory. The Russian group of forces will have to
repulse aggression. The conflict will be long because Romania will
support Moldova.

Russian commanders will have open ammunition depots and hand out
weapons to locals. Some Russian citizens will go to the Trans-Dniester
territory to support local troops. It’s hard to predict the outcome. To
all appearances, Moldova will have to retreat. However, UN peacekeepers
will be sent to the Trans-Dniester territory.

Caucasus

Georgian Defense Minister Okruashvili promised to resign if he fails to
seize South Ossetia by January 1, 2007. However, the Georgian Army will
have to deal with Russian peacekeepers in Tskhinvali. It’s obvious that
they will not cast oranges at Georgian soldiers. It’s hardly likely
that Russian troopers will let Saakashvili defeat Abkhazia’s army.

If the Georgian Army decided to attack Ossetia and Abkhazia, Moscow
will probably send weapons to these territories. It’s possible that
volunteers from the Caucasus will support them. The conflict will be
long and unpredictable.

(…)

Operations in Armenia and Tajikistan

Members of the Collective security treaty must provide military aid to
each other in case of a military threat. The Treaty includes Armenia,
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. Two of them
are on the verge of military conflicts. Azerbaijan may resume war on
Armenia because of Nagorny Karabakh. Tajikistan will have to defend
itself from Talibs if the US forces them out from Afghanistan.

Russia will have to support its allies using its bases in Armenia
(6,500 servicemen) and Tajikistan (7,000 servicemen). It’s not ruled
out that fighters deployed at the Kant base in Kyrgyzstan will suppress
Talibs. Talib gangs will hide in the mountains. The conflict may last
for decades.

RUSSIAN GENERALS’ OPINIONS

Major-General Alexander Vladimirov, vice president of the Collegium
of military experts, "We will have to defend our allies."

The Caucasus will pose the main threat to Russia within the next
10-15 years. Wahhabis become stronger and expand to Dagestan,
Kabardino-Balkaria and Adygeya. A very high crime rate in this region,
gigantic unemployment, drug trafficking and caviar smuggling testify
that Russia will have to use the Army there. A long military campaign
is not ruled out.

It’s possible that Russia will have to use the Army in order to defend
Kazakhstan. The US seeks to expand to this republic. It’s not ruled
out that it will attempt to replace the regime in this country.

We will have to use our military units.

Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Academy of
Geopolitical Problems, "We will hold Belarus and Ukraine."

Our enemies seek to create prerequisites for NATO’s invasion in Russia
and the territory of our allies such as Belarus. The West supports
the opposition, which must replace Lukashenko and destabilize the
situation. Russia will have to support the Belarusian government. An
armed conflict with NATO is not ruled out. It’s not ruled out that
Ukraine will split into two or three parts and a civil war will break
out in this country. We will intervene in order to defend Russian
people living in Ukraine.

BUILDERS OF BAKU-CEYHAN OIL PIPELINE REFUSE TO COMPENSATE DAMAGE INFLICTED TO ARMENIAN VILLAGE

Noyan Tapan
Armenians Today
Jun 14 2006

AKHALKALAK, JUNE 14, NOYAN TAPAN – ARMENIANS TODAY. The
SPI-Capag-Petrofac company carrying out the construction of the
Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline in the territory of Georgia has inflicted a
land damage to the village of Ghado, Akhalkalak region, for using sand
necessary for the construction and has been refusing to compensate
the damage up to this day.

According to the A-Info agency, at the construction company they
explain that the land used by them belongs to the state and they
have the respective licence for using it from the Ministry of Nature
Protection.

The residents of Ghado insist that the sand used for the oil pipeline’s
construction is taken from the territory belonging to them and they
have the respective certificate of public ownership. Besides, the
residents of Ghado mention that a compensation in a large amount was
given in other regions when the territories of Georgian villages were
used for the same purposes. For the present, the inhabitants of Ghado
hope for the justice of the Georgian law-enforcement bodies. The
case made up on the basis of their complaints has already reached
the Georgian Prosecutor General’s Office.

ROLAND WEGENER: COE READY TO ASSIST ARMENIA IN IMPLEMENTING REFORMS

ArmRadio.am
10.06.2006 15:03

The Council of Europe is ready to do its best to assist the Government
of Armenia in holding reforms, Head of Ago Group, Germany’s Permanent
Representative to the Council of Europe Roland Wegener stated at
a news conference in Yerevan. In his words, it will be necessary
to spend two years to make the country’s legislation comply with
the reformed Constitution. “This job is hard, however compulsory. We
discussed the matter with Armenian President Robert Kocharian and the
Minister of Justice David Harutyunyan. Changes should be made in the
judicial legislation, Law on Police, Criminal and Civil Codes, Law
on the City of Yerevan. However, the most important task is changes
in the Electoral Code, without which democratic elections in the
parliament in 2007 will not be possible,” Wegener said.

Armenia Fund USA, Inc.
152 Madison Ave, S-803
New York, NY 10016, U.S.A.
T/1-212-689-5307
F/1-212-689-5317
http://ww w.armeniafundusa.org
E-mail: [email protected]

Nagorno-Karabakh’s Nor-Getashen Village
~A successful example of Armenia Fund USA’s mission ~

NEW YORK, New York – From its beginning, Armenia Fund USA (the Fund)
embraced within its mission the goal to go “beyond bricks and mortar”. An
example of that is the continuing community development of the village of
Nor-Getashen since Armenia Fund USA’s donor Mr. Norman Miller, 92, of
Pennsylvania brought clean drinking water (2005) to a tiny, war-ravaged
community of Nagorno-Karabakh. Accompanied by his son, Mr. Miller traveled
to Nor-Getashen to personally see the changes made through the water
project. He was touched to meet the families of Nor-Getashen who now had
clean running water in their homes. Moved by the impact clean drinking water
had made on the daily lives of the people of Nor-Getashen, Mr. Miller
pledged to support the expansion of the project to include two other
communities of the village.

More than this, living through his visit to Nor-Getashen, Mr. Miller decided
to share the spirit of Christmas (2005) with them by sending gifts to the
village’s school children. A TV and a DVD player were delivered to
Nor-Getashen school. Also, “Superbook” DVDs and toys were kindly donated by
Christian Broadcasting Network, a Virginia based non-profit organization and
one of the largest television ministries in the world. The tapes, which have
been widely televised on Armenian TV, and are quite popular among children,
have now been made available in this tiny remote village in mountainous
Karabakh.

In May 2006, while completing their visit to Hayastan Himnadram’s affiliates
meeting in Yerevan, Kevork Toroyan, Chairman, and Irina Lazarian, Executive
Director, also traveled to Nor-Getashen to review the progress of the water
project that is due to be completed by the end of June, 2006. They were able
to see the overall economic impact that small changes and improvements had
on families’ lives. What impressed them most, however, was the
well-maintained, clean and neat classrooms of the village’s only school
which has no more than 72 school children. In this small village that has
suffered greatly from the 1991 war between disputing countries Armenia and
Azerbaijan, representatives of Armenia Fund USA could see hopeful faces that
are now filled with optimism for the future. “We saw lively faces of
children, energy, willingness and vigor of villagers to tackle daily
problems, and most importantly, how a small socio-economic improvement in
this tiny community can be an incentive to move forward.” says Ms. Lazarian,
Executive Director of the Fund. Nor-Getashen families once again thanked the
Fund for giving them “the confidence and feeling” that they are not alone in
their social struggle to make life better in Nagorno-Karabakh. The project
in Nor-Getashen shows how small scale development projects can successfully
mobilize communities.

Apart from undertaking large-scale development projects defined in its
mission, the Fund has also helped facilitate smaller much-needed projects
that some of its donors have envisioned. In their continuing commitment to
effect social change, several have, over years, adopted specific projects
building on the continuity and sustainability desired by the Fund in every
step of the way. Armenia Fund USA’s restoration of the heating system in
Nork through the generosity of Mr. Agop Giritliyan (2005) and the
water-project of Mr. Vasken Kassabian (2004) are examples of such
initiatives.
Armenia Fund USA works closely with like minded organizations to deliver the
necessary technical intervention to Armenia and Karabakh. Through the
generous support of its donors, it continues touching lives of thousands of
people giving them hope that change and improvement can, in fact, reach
them. The emphasis on the maintenance of projects the Fund sponsors, the
multifaceted support to ensure the long-term sustainability of initiatives,
as well as thorough follow-up on the work completed, clearly confirm Armenia
Fund USA’s pledge to go ‘beyond bricks and mortar”.

Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
June 9 2006

Azerbaijani MPs refutes speaker Ogtay Asadov’s congratulating
Armenian speaker

[ 09 Jun. 2006 19:02 ]

Azerbaijani parliamentarians Musa Guliyev and Asef Hajili held a
press conference dedicated to their participation in the 27th plenary
session of the Parliamentary Assembly of Organization of the Black
Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) in Yerevan (APA).

The parliamentarians said Azerbaijani media did not fairly covered
their visit to Armenia and even made false information about that.
They refuted the reports that Azerbaijani parliament speaker Oghtay
Asadov sent congratulations to the newly elected Armenian parliament
speaker Tigran Torosyan. Hajiyev accused some pro-opposition papers
of playing into Armenians’ hands.
`The pro-opposition papers exaggerated disinformation of Armenian
press. The authors of these stories have links with Armenians and
back them,’ the parliamentarian said.
Hajiyev said it was important to attend the event in Armenia related
to Azerbaijan’s taking over the presidency of the organization.
`Azerbaijan took over the presidency from Armenia in this event. If
we did not attend it they would have proclaimed to the world that
Azerbaijan boycotted the international organization’s work,’ he said.

He noted the next sitting of the organization will take place in
Azerbaijan in November this year, `We have invited the Assembly
participants to the meeting in Azerbaijan.’
Guliyev said some media outlets made false reports on their visit to
Yerevan./APA/

Interfax News Agency
Russia & CIS Business and Financial Newswire
June 9, 2006 Friday 10:23 AM MSK

Armenia’s Zangezur Copper-Molybdenum Plant boosts earnings 23% in
2005

The Zangezur Copper-Molybdenum Plant increased net profit by 22.9% to
12.956 billion dram ($28.7 million) in 2005, from 10.537 billion dram
($23.4 million) a year earlier, company general director Maxim
Akopian said.

Commercial production and sales grew to 87.48 billion dram in 2005,
from 65.529 billion dram in 2004.

He said the company mined and processed 8.854 million tonnes of ore
last year, compared to 8.563 million tonnes in 2004. The company’s
contributions to the state budget almost doubled to 29.226 billion
dram, from 15.211 billion dram.

Akopian said this year would be even better than last year.

Zangezur will mine and process 9.9 million tonnes of ore in 2006, he
forecasted.

In 2008-2029, the company plans to reach annual production of 16
million-18 million tonnes of ore, and intends to invest $90 million
in modernization to achieve this goal, he said.

Zangezur also has joint projects to produce pure molybdenum and
molybdenum products with Armenian Molybdenum Production and the
Yerevan Pure Iron works. The company plans to invest $15 million in
these projects, as well as $15 million in studying the possibility of
recovering other metals from ore and tailings and setting up the
corresponding production facilities, recovering copper, molybdenum,
silver, gold, rhenium and sulfur. There are also plans to study the
economic viability of producing refined copper, in which the company
plans to invest $5 million, Akopian said.

Germany’s Cronimet Mining 60% of the Zangezur mine. The Yerevan Pure
Iron works owns 15%, Armenian Molybdenum Production (AMP) 12.5% and
LLC Zangezur Mining owns 12.5% on behalf of the plant’s former
management.

OSKANIAN: THIRD ATTEMPT TO START WAR TO BECOME BAKU’S ULTIMATE MISTAKE

PanARMENIAN.Net
09.06.2006 13:29 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Presently resumption of the Nagorno Karabakh war
is unreal, Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian stated in an
interview with Kentron Armenian television. At that he remarked that
taking into account Azerbaijan’s statements the situation may change
in future. However, the Minister said, according to international
military analysts, Azerbaijan is not ready for a military resolution
of the Karabakh problem and will not be ready within next 10 years
even with the oil possibilities it possesses.

“Even if Azerbaijan is ready, war is war. Azerbaijan has gained bitter
experience when trying twice to settle the problem by force. The
third attempt will be the ultimate one,” Vartan Oskanian said. “I
think in this case the problem will be settled by force, however this
settlement will not be in favor of Azerbaijan,” he added, reported
Novosti-Armenia news agency.

AZERBAIJANI MASOCHISM?
By Tamar Minasian

AZG Armenian Daily
08/06/2006

How stupid one should be to torture his people with false
announcements! It transpires that the Azerbaijanis are very skillful
in this. They do not spare Azerbaijani readership and portrait horrific
scenes trampling common ethics.

To make sure one can only search for “revival of our spirit” phrase on
the Internet and find numerous Azerbaijani websites where our neighbors
post descriptions of inhuman deeds ascribing them to Armenian writer
and publicist Zori Balayan.

After 15 years of futile efforts to find inhuman actions on part of
the Armenian freedom fighters, Azeris have decided to accuse Armenians
of made-up cruelties. Many Azeri internet sources allegedly quote
the words of Zori Balayan from his “The Revival of Our Spirit” book:
“… but only an Armenian whose heart was pulled out and thrown into
the fire can feel proud and satisfied reading these lines.

“When Khachatur and I went down to the basement where they were kept
our soldiers had already a child hammered to a window frame by his
elbows… Then I did to this 13 years old Turk what his ancestors
did to our children… He died of hemorrhage in 7 minutes…

Khachatur hacked his body and threw pieces to dogs…”

Citing this extract from our cruel neighbor’s unhealthy fantasy we
want to calm Azeri readers down saying: “The above is a fable of your
countrymen. Zori Balayan has never published such a book.” It’s also
silly to mention the place and date of publication and the pages of
the quotes (Vanadzor, 1996, pages 260-262) to ring true.

Zori Balayan, who is currently aboard “Cilicia” sailing vessel,
wrote a letter. “Many people call me these days asking whether I
have a book published in Vanadzor and titled ‘The Revival of Our
Spirit’. The question is that for already two years people come across
this dirty disinformation, this perfect nonsense, to put it mildly,
which is said to be a sentence from my non-existing book. I want to
say that authors of these false quotes do not understand that first
of all they discredit their own people.

“I demand that those entitled to protect writers’ rights by
investigating such cases to show the readers the book that was
quoted. I am sure that the human rights are not a hollow sound but
a necessary reality of our life and it has to be protected.”

27TH PLENARY SITTING OF BSEC PA TO BE HELD IN YEREVAN ON JUNE 6-8

Noyan Tapan
June 05 2006

YEREVAN, JUNE 5, NOYAN TAPAN. The 27th plenary sitting of the
Parliamentary Assembly of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation will take
place in Yerevan on June 6-8. The 34th sitting of the BSEC PA bureau,
then the 27th sitting of the Standing Committee, the special sitting
of the BSEC PA Committee on Economic, Trade, Technological and Nature
Protectional issues will take place on June 6 in the NA “golden”
hall. The 27th plenary sitting of the BSEC PA will start works at the
NA conference-hall on June 7. After the solemn ceremony of opening the
assembly, when greeting speeches will be made. issues on agenda will
be discussed at the first sitting: the agenda will be affirmed, new
mandates will be discussed, the report of the 26th sitting of General
Assembly of the BSEC PA taken place in Tirana on November 22-24, 2005
and report on PA activity will be affirmed. Then problems of energetic
safety in the Black Sea region will be discussed. Organization,
economic, commercial, technological, nature protectional, legal,
political issues will be discussed on the same day.

As Noyan Tapan was informed by the NA Public Relations Department,
cultural, educational, social and financial issues are on the agenda
of June 8 discussions. At the end of the BSEC PA 27th plenary sitting,
the place and term of holding the autumn sitting of the 2006 BSEC
General Assembly will be decided, rotation of chairmanship will take
place and the chairmanship will pass to the Mili Mejlis (Parliament)
of the Republic of Azerbaijan. RA NA Speaker Tigran Torosian will
have bilateral meetings with international parliamentary structures
and heads and representatives of national delegations, within the
framework of the BSEC PA 27th plenary sitting. Assembly works will
be summed up for journalists by a press-conference.

RECTOR OF STATE ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF ARMENIA IS PROFESSOR OF SAME UNIVERSITY, NA DEPUTY VOSTANIK MARUKHIAN

Noyan Tapan
June 05 2006

YEREVAN, JUNE 5, NOYAN TAPAN. Professor of the State Engineering
University of Armenia, NA Deputy Vostanik Marukhian was elected the
Rector of the institution of higher education with 29 “for” and 1
“against” votes at the June 2 sitting of the Management Council of
the State Engineering University of Armenia. Vostanik Marukhian
had no rivals for the Rector’s post. Yuri Sargsian, the Former
Rector of the same institution of higher education, who resigned
that post two months ago, will stay at the University, continuing
his professor-lecturer’s and scientific work. Vostanik Marukhian
sees nothing strange in his being the only candidate proposed for
the Rector’s post, though he would like to have rivals. “Maybe, the
circumstance of being the only candidate is provided by the fact that
even those people who may pretend for that post, see in me the person
who has experience and merit of 34 years in government and education
works of the institution of higher education,” the newly elected Rector
emphasized. We must also mention that a change was recently made
in the staff of the University Council: particularly, former Rector
of the University Yuri Sargsian was involved in the Council instead
of Artashes Tumanian, the former head of the RA President’s staff,
and former RA Minister of Education and Science Sergo Yeritsian was
changed by newly appointed Minister Levon Mkrtchian. Sergo Yeritsian
remained in the Council staff as the Government’s representative.