Author: Boshkezenian Garik

RESOLUTION ADOPTED

A1+
[08:36 pm] 19 April, 2006

“Corruption is one of the main problems which hinder the economic
and social development of Armenia”, the resolution adopted in the
EU-Armenia Parliamentary cooperation Committee 8th session. It calls
on the RA authorities to fully realize the anti-corruption strategy
adopted in 2003 and especially the 24 instructions by GRECO given on
March 10, “This is a very urgent issue”.

The document also refers to the results of the 2005 referendum:
on the one hand they welcome the reforms realized, which gave us
the possibility to balance the three branches of power and to make
the political system more balanced. On the other hand they mention
serious violations which were recorded by international organizations,
especially the CE.

The first version of the document included statements not so favorable
for Armenia, but thanks to the efforts of the Armenian side they
were excluded from the document. In particular, the rights of
territorial integrity and sovereignty were replaced by “The right
of self-determination of the people and respect for the rights of
national minorities”.

“This can refer to Karabakh as if the refugees return to Karabakh
and it obtains independence, the refugees will become minorities and
we will respect their rights”, Armen Roustamyan said. The document
also stipulates the importance of the status of Karabakh, security
guarantees, and the return of the refugees and the participation of
Karabakh in the negotiation process. It is also mentioned that the
fact that Karabakh is a non-recognized state cannot be ground for
not respecting the rights of the population of Karabakh.

ASBAREZ ONLINE
TOP STORIES
04/19/2006
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1) French Interior Minister Calls Desecration of Armenian Memorial
‘Unacceptable’
2) Karabagh Army Concludes Week-long War Games
3) New Books to Aid Understanding of ARF
4) Armenian Genocide Recognition Issue Has Entered New Stage
5) Hamazkayin Fifth World Congress Ends in Lebanon

1) French Interior Minister Calls Desecration of Armenian Memorial
‘Unacceptable’

(Nouvel Obs)French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy expressed his indignation
Wednesday at the desecration of the Armenian Genocide Memorial in Lyon. The
memorial, which is to be unveiled on April 24, was vandalized Monday with
revisionist inscriptions that read, “There was no genocide.”
Sarkozy called the incident “unacceptable” and said that its authors “must be
severely punished by the justice of our country.”
He assured the Armenian community that France stands in solidarity with them.
He said that “the Republic expressed herself with force, by the law of January
29, 2001, according to which France recognizes publicly the Armenian genocide
of 1915.”
So, said the Interior Minister, “The authorities of the Republic will not
accept that the law is scoffed.”
Two Armenian organizations in France, the Committee for the Defense of the
Armenian Cause (CDCA) and the Council of Armenian Organizations in France,
raised their concerns about the incident and demanded that those
responsible be
apprehended and adequately charged.
The CDCA also demanded that extra measures be taken to ensure the safety of
the Memorial’s inauguration and Genocide commemoration on April 24, which will
be attended by French President Jacques Chirac.

2) Karabagh Army Concludes Week-long War Games

YEREVAN (RFE/RL)–The ethnic Armenian armed forces of Mountainous Karabagh
Republic (MKR) ended on Wednesday week-long large-scale exercises, which the
MKR leadership said highlighted their ability to fend off possible military
action by Azerbaijan.
Hundreds of troops, backed by tanks, heavy artillery, and helicopter gunships
firing live rounds, practiced defensive and offensive operations at a training
ground not far from the Armenian-Azeri line of contact east of Karabagh.
The war games, which will be evaluated by top military officials on Thursday,
followed a familiar scenario, with the Karabagh army fighting back an enemy
assault and then going on the counteroffensive. They also involved a rare
call-up of local army reservists who also took in the simulated fighting.
Armenia’s Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian and the chief of army staff,
Colonel-Lieutenant Mikael Harutiunian, monitored the proceedings along with
the
leadership of MKR. “At first glance, everything is alright,” Sarkisian told
reporters.
Armenian and Karabagh officials insisted that the exercises are not connected
with Azerbaijan’s renewed threats to win back Karabagh by force or aimed at
affecting the ongoing peace talks mediated by the Minsk Group of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Sarkisian claimed that
President Ilham Aliyev and other Azeri leaders make such threats for
“propaganda purposes.”
Sarkisian also said he looks forward to Aliyev’s meeting with President
George
W. Bush at the White House which is scheduled for April 28. “I am confident
that the president of the United States will urge Aliyev to resolve the
conflict by peaceful means,” he said.
MKR President Arkady Ghukasian, for his part, remained skeptical about
chances
of a breakthrough in the peace process. “In my opinion, Azerbaijan is dragging
out the negotiations,” he said. “Azerbaijan is not prepared for a settlement.
But this is a case where I want to be mistaken.”
Meanwhile, Russia’s chief Karabagh negotiator, Yuri Merzlyakov, confirmed on
Wednesday that he and the French and American co-chairs of the Minsk Group
will
likely visit the conflict zone early next month in a bid to arrange another
meeting between Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart Robert Kocharian.
Merzlyakov said the two leaders have already been presented with the
mediators’
revised peace proposals and are currently studying them. He refused to
disclose
those proposals.
The Minsk Group’s American co-chair, Steven Mann, is due to pay a separate
visit to Baku and Yerevan later this week.

3) New Books to Aid Understanding of ARF

YEREVAN (Yerkir)The Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) presented
Wednesday
new books aimed at helping people learn about and understand the ARF better.
The books presented were: “Bibliography of the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation,” in 4 volumes; Ararat Hakobian’s “The Parliament of Armenia and
Political Parties in 1918-1920”; “ARF Figures Answer People’s Questions”;
Nigol
Aghbalian’s “Thoughts on ARF”; and Gevorg Khudinian’s and Ararat Hakobian’s
“The Latest Efforts to Distort the ARF History.”
“I think these books will help those who want to understand the
Dashnaktsutiun
better,” ARF Bureau representative Hrant Markarian said at the Bureau
headquarters.
Markarian said these books are mostly aimed at the youth. “But the issues
raised in the books are aimed at all the sectors of the society,” Markarian
added. “The books contain assessments of various periods of the ARF
activities,
including the present times.”
Parliament’s ARF faction leader Levon Mkrtchian noted that the goal of
publishing these books was to familiarize people with the ARF. “Each of the
115
years of the ARF history is described in press, book series, and today, we are
continuing this tradition,” Mkrtchian said. “Every generation passes on the
ARF
values to the next; we will pass them on to the next generation.”
Artashes Shahbazian of the ARF Armenia Supreme Body’s Promotion Group
mentioned the books will be given as gifts to the participants of the
presentation, and later be donated to Armenian libraries. The books will also
be available at bookstores.

4) Armenian Genocide Recognition Issue Has Entered New Stage

YEREVAN (Yerkir)Leader of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) faction
in Parliament, Levon Mkrtchian said Wednesday that Armenian genocide
recognition has entered a new stage and can now focus on reparations.
“The Armenian genocide recognition issue has entered a new stage. Almost all
of the leading states recognized this fact and even the US doesn’t deny it,”
said Mkrtchian.
He said Armenia should take advantage of the international community’s
positive attitude about Genocide recognition and pursue a more precise
approach
towards Turkey.
“It’s time to speak of compensations, since without it the fact of
recognition
loses sense. For Armenia the matter concerns not only moral and material
issues, but appears as a security issue as well,” the ARF leader said.
Mkrtchian said that if Armenia’s neighbor does not acknowledge the Genocide,
the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border and the Karabagh conflict
settlement
could be drawn out for an indeterminate period of time.
At the same time, the faction leader remarked that the Arab world and Iran
support Armenia in its struggle for Genocide recognition. “Iran has not
declared it at the state level, but it sides with Armenia. Actually, the
majority of states arrived at the conclusion that the Armenian genocide in
Ottoman Empire should be recognized,” said Mkrtchian.

5) Hamazkayin Fifth World Congress Ends in Lebanon

The Hamazkayin Armenian Cultural and Educational Associations held the 5th
World Congress April 13-15 in Lebanon, with participants from the Middle East,
Europe, North and South America, Australia, and Armenia.
The meeting discussed the activities of the Central Committee over the last
four years. Participants also spoke about prospects for increasing
participation of youth during the next four years.
At the conclusion of the Congress, a new Central Committee was elected
consisting of Sarkis Armenian, Lebanon; Mgrditch Yapoujian, Lebanon; Vahe
Jamakordzian, Syria; Simon Hasserjian, Canada; Mgrditch Mgrditchian, Lebanon;
Antranig Misserlian, Lebanon; Edward Misserlian, USA; Masis Baghdassarian,
Armenia; Souren Sarkissian, France; Mardig Demirjian, Lebanon; and Vatche
Papazian, Lebanon.

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INTRODUCTION OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN CAN TOUCH UPON SOME SPHERES OF ARMENIAN-IRANIAN COOPERATION, EXPERT CONSIDERS

Noyan Tapan
Armenians Today
Apr 17 2006

YEREVAN, APRIL 17, NOYAN TAPAN – ARMENIANS TODAY. It is not excluded
that possible sanctions against Iran can have a negative impact on the
development of Armenian-Iranian cooperation. Sevak Sarukhanian, expert
on Iran of the Noravank scientific-educational fund, declared this
answering Noyan Tapan correspondent’s question, what impact possible
introduction of economic sanctions against Iran can have on Armenia. As
he estimated, today the world is not ready to refuse supplies of the
Iranian oil. Therefore, possible sanctions against Iran will rather
touch upon other spheres than the oil one, which can have a negative
impact on some sides of Armenian-Iranian economic cooperation and,
in particular, trade between the two countries. According to the
expert, the beginning of discussion of the issue on introduction
of sanctions against Iran by the European Union is an integral part
of the political pressure exerted by the world on Iran today. Seven
Sarukhanian did not exclude that today for EU it is not beneficial to
introduce any sanctions against Iran as in difference to U.S., today
Europe directly depends on supplies of the Iranian oil. In addition,
in his opinion, the sanctions can do harm the dialogue that started
between IRI and EU on the issue of perspective supplies of the Iranian
gas to Europe. The expert considers that for the present, introduction
of sanctions against Iran by U.S. and a group of countries at one
with U.S. is more realistic. Some members of EU can also appear among
them. However, EU as an orga nization will hardly introduce sanctions
against IRI, especially forestalling the UN Security Council.

AZG Armenian Daily #069, 15/04/2006

Armenian Genocide

GENOCIDE-RELATED DISCUSSION IN MOSCOW

Yesterday, Mitq (thought) Union of Armenian Youth
organized a meeting with Yuri Barseghov, president of
the Institute of International Law and Political
Science, in Moscow. According to Regnum agency, the
following issues topped the meeting agenda:

1. Armenian Genocide as a crime against humanity. 2.
International recognition of the Armenian Genocide and
Turkey’s legal responsibility. 3. Recognition and
condemnation of the crime by Turkey itself. 4. Ways of
just removal of the consequences of the Genocide. 5.
Solution for the Armenian Cause based on international
law.

Yerkramas newspaper of Russian-Armenians informs that
Mitq Union is the youth project of the
Russian-Armenian Association non-profit organization.

IT IS EASIER TO SPEAK IN THE CORRIDOR

A1+
[05:58 pm] 13 April, 2006

The club of young political figures is going to organize a protest
in front of the RF Embassy against the Russian policy towards the
RA. But so far they won’t do it as according to the Club Chairman
Arman Vardanyan “we don’t want to play into the hands of people who
arouse false hysteria against Russia.”

“Just imagine whenever the RA speaks of its interests they qualify it
as anti – Russian hysteria,” mentioned the NA Deputy Arshak Sadoyan
in his speech. The latter was also astonished why we shouldn’t arouse
hysteria if “as a result of Russian position Nakhidjevan and Kharabakh
were given to Azerbaijan, and Ghars and Ardahan – to Turkey.” “You
get off the point,” the organizers reminded Arshak Sadoyan who didn’t
agree with them. Today the young political figures gathered a number of
elderly and sophisticated political figures to comment on the details
of the Hrazdan 5th energy block and Iran – Armenia gas main sales.

Nothing new was said at the meeting; the participants merely repeated
the ideas of April 6 said after the treaty between “GasProm” and the
RA Government.

“This deal has no economic grounds, it was aimed at making Armenia
dependent of its elder brother from the point of view of energy,”
said the economist Edward Aghadjanov. He thinks that Armenia had
an alternative in case “the elder brother didn’t give gas” but we
didn’t use it. The alternative was to remain the owner of the Iran –
Armenia gas main, as a result of which Armenia would also become a
transit country for exporting Persian gas to Europe. According to him
Armenia lost most of its shares of the company “ArmRusGasArd” and the
right on veto and thus can do nothing in case the company activities
contradict our interests. “The Persian gas will not penetrate to
Europe if Russia doesn’t want it,” said the member of the Republican
Party Armen Ashotyan and added, “How can Armenia take Persian gas to
Europe if the Ukraine gas main belongs to “GasProm?”

He thinks that energy dependence does not mean a full dependence
from Russia, as Germany, Austria and Finland also get their gas from
Russia. A serious dispute began between Ashotyan and Aghadjanov when
Ashotyan informed that “he is aware of Aghadjanov’s dream land” and
ended his speech with the following words, “The sun is not guilty
when its light is neglected.” By the way, the dispute took place in
the corridor where the 2 continued their “discussion.”

OSCE PLANS NEW ARMENIAN-AZERI TALKS ON KARABAKH

Reuters, UK
April 13 2006

Apr 13, 2006 – YEREVAN (Reuters) – The Organization For Security and
Cooperation in Europe said on Thursday it hoped to arrange talks in
June or July between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan on the
disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The territory, scene of a conflict between the two sides in which
about 35,000 people were killed, has a major pipeline linking Caspian
Sea oil fields to world markets.

In February, talks between Armenian President Robert Kocharyan and
Azeri President Ilham Aliyev, whose countries stand at the crossroads
between Europe and Asia, ended without agreement.

“We want to again create the conditions for a meeting of the
presidents,” Bernard Fassier, a French mediator from the Organization
For Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), told reporters after
visiting Armenia and Azerbaijan.

“It would be good if it was possible to organize a meeting in June.

If not, then we hope it will be possible to organize a meeting in
July,” said Fassier.

French, U.S. and Russian mediators from the so-called Minsk Group of
the OSCE were involved in the February talks.

Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous territory roughly half the size of
the Mediterranean island of Cyprus, has for decades soured relations
between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Sporadic clashes inside the territory between Azeri and ethnic Armenian
irregulars began in 1988 in the Soviet era, escalating by 1992 into
full-scale hostilities between Azeri and Armenian troops.

Hundreds of thousands fled and most have been unable to return to
the territory, which is part of Azerbaijan but has been controlled
by Armenian separatists since the fighting.

WITHOUT THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 3 MAJOR ASPECTS THERE CAN BE NO DEVELOPMENT IN THE TURKISH – ARMENIAN RELATIONS: TURKISH MP

Yerevan, April 12. ArmInfo. Without the implementation of the 3
major aspects there can be no development in the Turkish – Armenian
relations, the head of Turkish parliamentary delegation to PACE,
Murat Merjan says in an interview to Trend.

These 3 major aspects are: resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
on acceptable for both sides’ conditions, resolution of so-called
Armenian genocide issue in the Ottoman times, and acceptation by
Armenia of existing borders according to the Kars Treaty.

“Without implementation of the given conditions, we can not speak
about the normalization of Turkish – Armenian relations,” he said,
adding opening of the Turkish – Armenian border also depends on these
3 aspects.

GREECE: OIKOTIMES AND ESCTODAY INTERVIEW AT GREEK MAGAZINE DOWN TOWN
Michalis Vranis reporting from Kavala (Greece)
source: DownTown magazine

oikotimes.org, Greece
April 10 2006

In this week’s magazine Down Town in Greece, our chief editor gave
an interview concerning Eurovision (of course). Presenting Mr. Fotis
Konstantopoulos as the “Greek Eurostar”. Also, the magazine hosts
another Eurovision star, Sietse Bakker from esctoday.com presented as
“the Eurovision expert”.

Mr. Konstantopoulos is presented not only because he’s involved with
oikotimes but also as the director of the ERT Eurovision Channel.

Yiannis Poulopoulos (the journalist) asks, “We read on oikotimes that
the song “Everything” is leading at the predictions and polls. You
believe that those predictions can become true?” and the answer given
is that everything is floating. In the past we saw favorites not
winning and outsiders getting the first place. Mr. Konstantopoulos
believes that the songs are close to win, except “Everything” are the
Romanian and the Swedish. Also he personally believes that Russia is
a favorite as well as Armenia, Turkey Estonia and Denmark.

Also, there was also an interview of Sietse Bakker at the same copy
of the Down Town magazine. For the first time we have a clear answer
of what Mr. Bakker along with Mr. Konstantopoulos vote at the Greek
pre selection this year. Of course their vote was for “Everything”.

He personally believes that last year Greece was leading the polls
and for sure it was the winner, but this year things are different.

This happens because there are more good songs competing. Concerning
the final result, Sietse Bakker believes that Swden, Greece, Romania,
United Kingdom and Finland are the top 5 countries for the grand
prize. And from the semifinal, Armenia, Albania, Belgium, Fyrom,
Turkey, Finland, Netherlands, Sweden, Bosnia and Herzegovina and
Iceland will proceed to the final.

FIRST FORUM OF CIS CULTURAL AND SCIENTIFIC INTELLIGENTSIA TO BE HELD IN MOSCOW

Yerevan, April 10. ArmInfo. The 1st forum of the cultural and
scientific intelligentsia of the CIS countries will be held in Moscow
Apr 14-15.

The Russian Embassy in Yerevan reports that the forum will be held on
the initiative of Russia on the basis on the agreement on humanitarian
cooperation signed by the CIS countries in Kazan.

Attending the event will be 650 people: 300 from the CIS, 250 from
Russian regions, 100 guests and officials, among them delegates
of Armenia.

The key topics will be education and youth; science and technology;
cultural legacy’ literature and books; theater, cinema, music and
circus; fine arts, architecture, design; mass media. The forum will
be opened by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The forum will elaborate recommendations to the CIS authorities and
NGOs on how to develop humanitarian cooperation in the post-Soviet
area.

KARABAKH CONFLICT MADE YEREVAN STRIKE GAS DEAL WITH RUSSIA – ARMENIAN AGENCY

Mediamax news agency, Yerevan
10 Apr 06

The Armenian government had little choice when it decided to sell
important energy sector assets to Russia, Armenian news agency
has reported. After listing several drawbacks of the deal on the
purchase of Russian gas, the agency went on to say that Armenia has
only two potential suppliers of gas and the ongoing controversy
over Iran’s nuclear programme makes Russia seem a more reliable
partner. The situation is unlikely to change because the Nagornyy
Karabakh conflict means that the Armenian borders with Turkey and
Azerbaijan will remain closed, the report said. The following is
the text of report in English by Armenian news agency Mediamax;
subheadings have been inserted editorially:

The “compensatory mechanisms” called to soften the consequences of gas
price increase for Armenia have been eventually revealed. On April
6, Gazprom issued a press release saying the company has signed a
“long-term agreement with the government of Armenia for 25 years
setting out strategic principles of cooperation”.

Gazprom announced that in accordance with the signed agreement,
ArmRosGazprom (the Russian giant owns 45% share of ArmRosGazprom) is
going to buy the fifth unfinished unit of Razdan Thermal Power plant
(Razdan-5) and the first, 40 kilometre-long section of Iran-Armenia
gas pipeline from the Armenian government. In accordance with the
agreement, ArmRosGazprom takes commitment to rebuild and modernize
Razdan-5. “After the conclusion of the deal Gazprom becomes the owner
the major part of ArmRosGazprom’s share,” the press release said.

The gas price for Armenia fixed in the Armenian-Russian agreement
remains 110 dollars per 1,000 cu.m. till 1 January 2009.

On April 6, the government of Armenia issued a press release informing
that Razdan-5 will be sold for 248.8m dollars. The sum will be paid
off according to the following schedule: 58.8m dollars in 2006,
70m dollars in 2007 and 120m dollars in 2008. Besides, Gazprom will
invest 140m dollars in the modernization of Razdan-5. Thus, the deal
might finally total nearly 400m dollars.

The official report of the Armenian government said nothing about
selling the section of Iran-Armenia gas pipeline. As Mediamax learned
from its sources in one of the biggest Russian newspapers, 2 hours
after the first press release Gazprom asked the media not to use it
and wait for the new one. As our sources reported, Gazprom’s press
service explained this decision by the dissatisfaction of the Armenian
government with the content of the press release.

Some time later, Gazprom placed a new version of the press release on
its web site not mentioning the Iran-Armenia pipeline. Gazprom would
hardly announce about buying the part of the pipeline “by a mistake”
or without sufficient reasons. Almost certainly, the parties agreed
not to unveil this part of the deal, but the agreement was breached
for some technical reasons. The sources of the Russian Vedomosti
newspaper in Gazprom claim the agreement on buying the pipeline
“has been reached but is not formulated yet”.

We would like to dwell on the main advantages and disadvantages of
the deal. Let’s recall, that still this January, commenting on the
reports of Russian media about Yerevan’s readiness to sell Razdan-5
and the stocks of Iran-Armenia pipeline, spokesman for the Armenian
president described them as “inconsistent with reality”. Sources in
the Armenian government declared then that the Russian side’s proposal
on handing over these two facilities “was and is unacceptable”.

Advantages

The fundamental and, probably, the only advantage is that the Armenian
population will be guaranteed from gas price fluctuations within the
coming three years. Most of the money gained from selling Razdan-5 will
be paid to ArmRosGazprom as a subsidy to cover the difference between
the old (54 dollars for 1,000 cu.m.) and the new (110 dollars for 1,000
cu.m.) prices. That means that the increase in gas prices for ordinary
Armenian consumers is insignificant: they are going to pay 65 drams for
one cubic meter instead of the previous 58. For industrial consumers
the growth is also very insignificant. Taking this into consideration,
the Armenian population will hardly dislike the decision taken by
the Armenian authorities to sell strategically important facilities,
as its majority lives under difficult social conditions and any
rise in prices would throw them into poverty. Moreover, the deal
suggests that in the coming three years the price for electricity,
which is too high in Armenia as compared to other countries on the
post Soviet space, also remains unchanged.

Considering the problem from the point of view of Armenian authorities’
interests, the deal makes them more confident ahead of the 2007
parliamentary and 2008 presidential elections, since a rise in gas
and electricity prices would provoke a total growth of prices which
would be extremely inauspicious on the eve of the elections.

Disadvantages

Let us be bold enough to assume that the basic disadvantage bears
a psychological character. In spite of the statements voiced
early this year about the need to reconsider the Armenian-Russian
energy cooperation, Russia became the owner of other Armenian energy
assets. The Razdan thermal power plant (without the unfinished fifth
unit) and four other enterprises were handed over to the Russian side
in 2003 to pay off Armenia’s 93m dollars debt to this country. The
manager of the plant is the subsidiary of RAO UES Company (United
Energy Systems of Russia) – “INTER RAO UES”, which also owns 100%
share of “Electricity Network of Armenia” grid and Sevan-Razdan
hydroelectric power station cascade, as well as manages the financial
flows of the Armenian nuclear power plant. Thus, Russia owns almost
all Armenian energy.

The price for Russian gas fixed for three years is a three-year
guarantee of Armenia’s loyalty to Moscow. The Kremlin has acquired
a new lever to exert pressure on Armenia – if Moscow doesn’t like
Yerevan’s policy, the signed agreement may be repudiated at any time
and Moscow may argue this decision by “changes on the world market”.

Iran will not be happy to learn about the decision to sell Razdan-5
and some part of Iran-Armenia gas pipeline, though it’s hard to
believe that Yerevan took it without relevant consultations with
Iran. Until most recent, it was almost resolved that Iran will
modernize Razdan-5. Tehran was supposed to allocate a 150m-dollar
credit to Armenia and receive the money back through electricity
produced from the Iranian gas at Razdan-5.

According to our sources in the Armenian Foreign Ministry, Tehran
nervously reacted on January reports about Armenia’s decision to
sell Razdan-5 and part of stocks of the pipeline to Russia. Armenian
diplomats took a lot of efforts at that time to calm down their
southern neighbour.

It’s strange, however, what new arguments Yerevan found for Tehran and
how persuasive they were. Besides, in the light of recent developments
around Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran too suspiciously reacts to any
external irritants. This, consequently, may affect Armenian-Iranian
relations.

The deal will, most likely, arouse disappointment in Washington as
well, as the latter has recently shown keen interest in the provision
of Armenia’s energy security. This was one of the most important
US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs
Daniel Fried and US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European
and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza focused on during their talks in
Yerevan this March.

Speaking at a news conference in Yerevan, Bryza said, “Armenia has a
huge experience of a positive cooperation with Russian gas suppliers,
which should be certainly continued”. However, he hardly meant the
news deal between Yerevan and Moscow.

We are not quite sure that Russia will completely fulfil its
obligations envisaged by the agreement in due time. 3 years ago,
5 enterprises were handed over to Russia to pay off Armenia’s
debt. Russia was obliged to modernize them and ensure orders. Only
Razdan Thermal Power plant is normally functioning today. As for
the rest of enterprises, they have received neither investments,
nor orders yet.

Realties

The list of disadvantages could be continued. It should be noted
that these assessments are emotional, whereas the politics is the
“science of the possible”. We have frequently reported that Armenia
possesses limited possibilities to provide its energy security.

Armenia possesses no finances to modernize the Razdan-5. (The capacity
of this unit after the modernization is expected to equal the capacity
of the Armenian nuclear power plant, which provides 40 per cent of
the republic’s electricity). Two countries – Iran and Russia – are
striving to modernize the plant. It’s difficult to say which variant
is more preferable given such a small choice.

Speaking about gas supplies to Armenia, in this respect Yerevan
doesn’t have choice either and the only possible suppliers are the
same countries – Iran and Russia. If Iran-Armenia pipeline were for
transit it would certainly change the regional situation. But it
should be finally admitted that the transit of Iranian gas through
the territory of Armenia to Ukraine and further to Europe is a myth,
at least in the foreseeable perspective. This myth has been emerging
and then disappearing in recent 10 years. The potential seller – Iran –
and the potential buyers – Georgia, Ukraine and European countries are
not interested in the talks and no one expresses hypothetical readiness
to finance this multi-billion project. It seems, Armenia became tired
of keeping the myth about the possibility to build a transit pipeline.

Judging from a conceptual point of view, are there reasons to believe
that Iran is a more reliable energy supplier than Russia? The growing
tensions over Iran’s nuclear program might entail harsh economic
sanctions, which will make any economic cooperation with Tehran
almost impossible.

Last week, Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan said “Armenia
is going to become part of the new Euro-Atlantic vision for energy
security provision,” noting that “the USA and the European Union are
working on it”. According to him, the work on the new conception
of energy security provision means “new nuclear power plants, the
construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, and Armenia is greatly
interested in all these discussions.”

The construction of a new nuclear power plant in Armenia (which arouses
USA’s interest) is a long and expensive project. Under favourable
circumstances it will be realized not earlier than in 8-10 years. The
Trans-Caspian gas pipeline Vardan Oskanyan spoke about is another
expensive and ambitious project. Even if we suppose that it will be
realized in the shortest possible time, the perspective of Armenia’s
involvement in it looks doubtful – if Yerevan and Baku fail to resolve
the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict by that time, Azerbaijan will do its
best to exclude Armenia from this project.

Now we are drawing near to the key conclusion – the full provision
of Armenia’s energy security and independence is impossible without
resolution of regional conflicts, the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict
in particular. Armenia’s borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey will
remain closed without resolution of the conflict and Armenia
will have restricted possibilities to withstand Russia and Iran’s
pressure. This is the reality. It would be at least wrong not to take
it into consideration analysing the latest Armenian-Russian deal. On
the other hand, there is an impression that the unsettled conflict
already became a justification for these or those controversial steps.