Brzezinski’s Warsaw Manifesto

Agency WPS
What the Papers Say. Part A (Russia)
December 6, 2004, Monday

BRZEZINSKI’S WARSAW MANIFESTO

SOURCE: Rossiiskie Vesti, No. 42, December 2, 2004, p. 9

by: Zbigniew Brzezinski

Well-known American political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski made a
speech in Warsaw a year ago, outlining the policy of US
Administration in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. At that
time, many of his conclusions seemed shocking, and even specialists,
let alone active politicians, refused to comment on them. But only a
year later, it appears that the scenario Brzezinski described has
started to be implemented in Ukraine. And it looks that this is only
the beginning. That is why we are publishing this reminder of
Brzezinski’s “Warsaw manifesto.”

* * *

We are now entering the third phase of Europe’s geopolitical
reconstruction following the end of the Cold War and the associated
dissolution of the Soviet Union. The first phase, to which I like to
refer as the “Warsaw Round,” attempted to resolve the most obvious
and pressing negative legacies of the Cold War by the introduction of
Poland, of Hungary, and the Czech Republic into the Atlantic
alliance. The second phase, which I would call the “Vilnius Round”
extended that process, and thereby matched also on the territorial
level the expansion of NATO with the expansion of the European Union.
This overlap between NATO and the European Union speaks for itself
and provides a very major justification for the expansion of each, as
well as for the expansion of both at the same time. The third phase,
which we’ll have to confront before long and which I’d like to call
the “Kiev Round,” will require moving into more uncharted waters with
greater historic political and social uncertainties. There is no
doubt about that, it is going to be more complex, more difficult,
there are more problematics. But I think there are strong historical
and geo-political considerations that justify our viewing the future
in terms of the Euro-Atlantic community that extends territorially
beyond the limits of the second “Vilnius Round”; that is to say, by
the inclusion of those peoples beyond the forthcoming territorial
definition of the Euro-Atlantic community.

Certainly, the Ukrainian people deserve, if they wish, to be part of
that larger entity. The key phrase, of course, is “if they wish.” And
if they wish, they can demonstrate it, and if they demonstrate it
they create an obligation on our part to be responsive, and the two
attitudes are synergistic, interdependent. The same is true, even
though it may look unlikely today, of Belarus. The same is true
eventually, even though it may sound remote today of Georgia, which
incidentally was Christian 600 years before Poland, and which
identifies itself with Europe, or Armenia.

The same is true, in some fashion, if it wishes and if it is serious,
of Russia, but only if it is serious and truly proves that it is
serious, because it is easy to say that we want to be part of Europe,
do you want us to be part of Europe, and then to leave it at that.
Being part of NATO, being part of the EU, is an opportunity, it is a
responsibility. It is also an obligation to fulfill certain
objective, as well as subjective, criteria. They have to be met
because building a truly democratic Euro-Atlantic community is a
serious undertaking which is based not only on institutions and on
laws, but on shared values that have to be genuinely subscribed to
and practiced and not only proclaimed by sloganeering, and this is
why we have to be very realistic.

We don’t know very clearly what the future of Belarus will be in this
context; and I am not quite sure of whether we should treat
Lukashenko the way we treated Jaruzelski after 1981, namely by
ostracizing him as well as the system, or whether we should treat him
like Ceausescu in the 1970s and 1980s by seduction which we hoped
would then become contagious in a pervasive manner. Maybe a
combination of the two, in fact, is needed given the present
complexities.

Connected with that is another fundamental which is important to
stress, namely, that Ukraine’s early accession to NATO and then to
the EU will accelerate, rather than delay Russia’s eventual
association. The longer it is delayed, the less likely Russia is to
be associated. If it is forestalled or made dependent on Russia’s own
association, it may not even happen, because then it will translate
imperial nostalgia into imperial self-isolation. But Ukraine’s
accession opens the doors for Russia to accelerate itself and hence,
I do hope that the Ukrainians and we, Americans, Poles, and our
allies, will do what we can to make Ukraine’s movement towards NATO a
reality.

Translated by Pavel Pushkin

Putin will visit Ankara from second attempt

PanArmenian News
Dec 4 2004

PUTIN WILL VISIT ANKARA FROM THE SECOND ATTEMPT

This will be the first official visit of the Russian head of state to
Turkey in history

On December 5 the President of Russia Vladimir Putin will make an
official visit to Turkey. There are arranged meetings of Russian
President with the President of Turkey Ahmet Necdet Sezer, the Prime
Minister Recep Erdogan, the minister of Foreign Affairs Abdulah Gül
and Turkish businessmen. It is expected to sign four agreements. Most
of the questions which Vladimir Putin is aimed to settle during the
visit to Ankara concern the interests of Armenia.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The visit was to take place in September but it had
been postponed because of the act of terror in Beslan. Putin has
previously been to Turkey in the beginning of the 90’s on the
holidays with his family in Antaliya. But by that time he was not a
president, but a usual KGB officer. But yet it’s the first official
visit of Russian head of state to Turkey during these 500 years of
Russian -Turkish relations. Traditionally the Russians considered
Turkey as an enemy country. Particularly the four Russian -Turkish
Wars are of evidence. The feeble attempts of the former Turkish prime
minister to get into contact with Russian leaders were not crowned
with success. Boris Yeltsin refused to receive Bulent Ejevit who
arrived in Moscow with an official meeting. On the contrary Putin
gives an unambiguous signal of the readiness to be friends.

First of all it’s a matter of economic interests. The interdependency
of the economies of two countries grows every year. The commodity
circulation is planned for 9 milliard dollars this year but according
to some information it has already exceeded that number. The experts
expect the turnover to amount to 20milliard. It should be noticed
that the matter concerns a number which by 40 times exceeds the state
budget of Armenia. Last year 1million 200thousand Russian tourists
visited Turkey. This figure during the first six months of the
current year comparing to the same period of last year increased by
50 per cents.

The cooperation of two countries has good prospects in the sphere of
energy. This cooperation may infringe upon Armenia’s interest. It is
not inconceivable that during the visit the sides may discuss the
possibility of Russia to supply to Turkey electrical energy generated
in Armenia in electric power stations belonging to RAO UES. In spite
of the statement of the Russian Premier Minister Mikhail Fradkov on
the prospects of the Russian gas supply to south en route of Armenia,
this question is hardly to be discussed seriously today. The Russians
pay more attention to the Blue Stream Pipeline by means of which in
the course of coming years 365bcm of gas will be supplied to Turkey.
During the visit Vladimir Putin will try to obtain a guarantee that
Ankara will completely fulfill its obligations within the framework
of this project. Moreover, in the days of visit may be signed an
agreement on investment in Turkish electric energy, gas-transport
infrastructure and also underground gas-holder construction in
Turkey.

The question of laying an oil pipeline from Turkish city Kyikey in
the south-west coast of Black Sea to Ibrikhaba city in Aegean Sea
will be discussed in Ankara. For the present considerable share of
Russian oil still goes to the west on tankers through Bosporus.
Turkey keeps on putting obstacles counting on political concessions
from the Moscow side. The conditions of Russian oil-tankers’ passing
through the channels will certainly be touched upon on the meeting.
Talking on communication it should be mentioned that during the
negotiations Putin and Erdogan may also touch upon a topic of
straight railway service opening between Moscow and Ankara. As
everybody knows the only trunk-railway linking Russia and Turkey lays
trough Armenia and now is blocked by the Turkish side.

The Turks count on the possibility to convince Putin to use his
ascendancy upon the European leaders to soften their position
concerning the membership of Turkey in the EU. During Putin’s visit a
special attention will be paid to military cooperation. The Minister
of Defense Sergey Ivanov is a member of the delegation headed by
Vledimir Putin. With his Turkish colleague he will discuss the
organization of Ka-50-2 helicopter production in Turkey. Besides, the
experts believe that during the visit the situation of the
2.5-3milliard dollar contract on supplies of 145 fighting machine to
Turkey will be made clear. The Americans also take part in the tender
for the execution of this order.

Putins visit is a good reason for Erdogan to strengthen personal
contacts with the Head of the Great Power.

According to some Turkish media, Recep Erdogn is even going to
suggest Putin being godfather on his daughter’s wedding. As everybody
knows in July on his elder daughter’s Esru’s wedding the godfather
was the Prime Minister of Greek Costas Karamanlis, in last August on
his son’s Bilal’s wedding this mission was entrusted to the Prime
Minister of Italy Silvio Berluskoni. The Turkish prime minister has a
chance to become related with the Head of Russia. This chance is his
youngest daughter Sumeye. The problem is that she is too young and
does not want to get married at all. But the commentators expect
Erdogan to insist on the immediate marriage with the first young man
for the sake of personal contact with Valdimir Putin. But it is still
unknown if Putin himself would like to become Erdogan’s relative.

Who Listens To This Radio Channel?

WHO LISTENS TO THIS RADIO CHANNEL?

Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
27 Nov 04

“Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorni Karabakh is on air,” every time
the radio channel “Voice of Justice” starts its programs with these
words. And why in Azerbaijani? Because it is more realistic to present
the problem of Karabakh, the ways of its peaceful settlement and
other actualities of our life to the Azerbaijanis in the Azerbaijani
language. The director of the radio channel M. Hajian informed that
the channel was founded and is funded by a group of businessmen who,
besides politics are interested in the ways of entering the Azerbaijani
market. In reference to the type of its audience, Hajian said that
the radio channel has received a number of letters from Germany,
Finland, Russia, America, New Zealand, Turkey, Japan, which thank
us. The channel began broadcasting programs in August 1997 four
times a week. “We cannot tell how many people exactly listen to us,”
mentioned Hajian, and the reason is the obstacles created by the
Azerbaijani authorities. The news program consists of two parts:
information, and interviews and programs. We are convinced that among
different mass media of Artsakh the “Voice of Justice” will have its
contribution to the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh problem.

AA. 27-11-2004

The US Can Intrude Turkey

THE US CAN INTRUDE TURKEY

Azg/arm
24 Nov 04

These words belong to General Necati Ozgen, former commander of Turkish
military academies. Turkish Yeni Sharaf newspaper informed on November
22 that he participated in the recent issue of “Political Arena”
program broadcasted over Turkish TV. In the course of the program,
he stated that “the US can intrude Turkey” and arose bewilderment of
Ali Qrjan, famous political journalist who asked: “How can it happen
Pasha? Will the American soldiers intrude in Turkey after Iraq? Can
it be?”

Necati Ozgen responded the journalist, saying:” Yes, the US can intrude
Turkey â~@¦ For example, from the Southâ~@~SEast of the country.”

The Yeni Sharaf writes that the statement made by the general can have
some grounds, especially when Ozgen is an experienced serviceman in the
issue of Iraq. He has been sent to Northern Iraq for many times. The
general has stated earlier that the US is doomed to failure in Iraq.

By Hakob Chakrian

–Boundary_(ID_o+qUVrd0/Gk4C8eM09e76Q)–

Youth Meeting Over

YOUTH MEETING OVER

Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
24 Nov 04

On November 15-19 the representatives of youth organizations of
Armenia, as well as 11 representatives from 9 foreign countries
were visiting Artsakh. The visit was organized by the foundation
“All-Armenian Youth International Center”. The members of the
delegation met with several top officials of the republic, as
well as representatives of public organizations, journalists and
students. KARABAKH CANNOT OBEY AZERBAIJAN. The guests offered
questions on the official position of the government concerning
the Karabakh problem, talks, relationships between Karabakh and
Russia to the foreign minister of NKR Ashot Ghulian. Dwelling
upon the Artsakh movement, the situation and developments in the
country the minister emphasized that economically developed Karabakh
cannot obey the Republic of Azerbaijan where even the rights of the
citizens of Azerbaijan are violated. The representative of Serbia
was interested in Russia’s influence on the Karabakh settlement. The
foreign minister mentioned particularly that Russian influence is
present in Nagorni Karabakh like in the other countries of the South
Caucasus. “This question may be related to Azerbaijani propaganda
also, and if proceed from its statements, there are no Armenians
here and Russians fought in the Karabakh war instead of the people
of Karabakh. I think that at least your impressions must confirm that
this was not and is not the case.” According to the minister, Russia
behaved adequately in the years of the Karabakh confrontation. At that
time when our region was a so-called undiscovered point on the map for
the international community, Russia assumed the main difficulty as a
mediator in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. It was through
its direct mediation that the cease-fire was maintained in 1994. The
minister emphasized that there are wide-scale public relations
between the people of Karabakh and Russia but at the political level
the attitude of Russia towards Karabakh does not differ from that
of other countries. In answer to the question on the steps taken
towards activating the negotiation process, the minister said,
â~@~There are no enough resources for activating the negotiation
process. Generally, independent of the Karabakh conflict, the talks
cannot be the result of unilateral efforts and actions. Activation of
negotiations requires the interest of both Azerbaijan and us. Today
there is no interest on Azerbaijan’s part, and the attempts of the
past year show the settlement of the Karabakh issue is not a priority
for Azerbaijan. Instead, through propaganda and different means an
attempt is made to create the impression that Azerbaijan is really
interested. The neighbour state keeps complaining of the activity of
mediators, and on the other hand, tries to make separate points of
the problem package subject of discussion at different international
organizations. Recently an attempt was being made to discuss a similar
question at the General Assembly of the UN. Of course, we do not mind
the discussion of the problems of territories or refugees but these
cannot be considered outside the general context.” FIRST TO PREPARE
FOR FURTHER COOPERATION. During the round tables
held in
the framework of the visit an important topic of discussion was the
protests of the neighbour state against the international programs
implemented in Artsakh. This undertaking was not an exception either;
the Azerbaijanis had tried to prevent the program and the visit of
the young people to Karabakh. Foreign minister Ashot Ghulian assured
that in Karabakh no political context is attached to the visits and
meetings with guests adding that Karabakh is, indeed, interested in
the visit of young people from different countries. They will see the
developments, success and drawbacks in our republic themselves and
they will have an objective opinion on the region and our country. Of
course, the Armenian side would like Azerbaijani representatives be
included in the group as after the visit they would certainly return
home with different ideas. The foreigners were surprised at the fact
that despite the Artsakh war and the Armenian genocide the Armenian
young people still wish to cooperate with the Azerbaijanis. By
the way, before the visit the foundation “All-Armenian Youth
International Center” conducted a public opinion poll among the
youth organizations in Karabakh on cooperation between Karabakh
and Azerbaijani youth. About 40 per cent were against cooperation
with Azerbaijanis for the reason that during visits in Azerbaijan
there is no confidence for the security of visitors. The fact that
Karabakh is not recognized may, in fact, have a negative effect upon
cooperation between Karabakh and European youth organizations. As the
representative of Italy mentioned during the round table, the European
organizations will not sponsor a program where Karabakh participates as
one of the sides. In this respect it is easier to cooperate with the
youth organizations of Moldavia, Georgia, Ukraine, for instance. In
answer to the question what results this visit produced in terms of
cooperation the representative of Italy said that before speaking about
cooperation it is necessary to think on how to start it. Cooperation
is possible only through a youth organization of Armenia. During the
visit the representatives of youth organizations of Artsakh came to the
conclusion that it is, first of all, necessary to undertake courses
for preparation of programs, ways of cooperation. Representatives of
certain organizations of Armenia promised to cooperate with them.

AA.
24-11-2004

–Boundary_(ID_Tqlq3dxd4McbY/Uoxbb1YQ)–

Russia ratifies military base agreement with Armenia

Russia ratifies military base agreement with Armenia

ITAR-TASS news agency
23 Nov 04

Moscow, 23 November: At today’s plenary session the State Duma
unanimously ratified a protocol on amendments to the treaty between
the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia on a Russian
military base in Armenia. The protocol was signed in Yerevan on 11
November 2003.

The ratification of the protocol “will make it possible to bring the
treaty between Russia and Armenia on a Russian military base in line
with the spirit and letter of the treaty on friendship, cooperation and
mutual help between Russian and Armenia of 29 August 1997”, said the
first deputy head of the main directorate for international military
cooperation of the Russian Defence Ministry, Albert Druzhinin, who
presented the document to the deputies.

He stressed that “the presence of a Russian military base in Armenia
has been prompted by Russia’s military and political interests and
a wish to stabilize the situation in the region”.

Armenia ratified the protocol on 28 April 2004.

VoA: New Armenian TV Feed Debuts Today

New Armenian TV Feed Debuts Today

Voice of America
Nov 22 2004

On Monday, Nov. 22, VOA begins a new weekday feed for Armenia TV.
Available Monday through Friday, Armenian TV Magazine covers current
news topics along with insight into the background and implications
of the story.

The 10-minute feed goes to Armenia TV at 0715 UTC (11:15 a.m. in
Armenia). This new weekday edition of Armenian TV Magazine joins VOA’s
30-minute weekend program of the same name. For more information
on the staff or to catch up on programs, visit the webpage at

www.VOANews.com/Armenian.

LA: Southland leads country in stolen auto exports

Southland leads country in stolen auto exports
By Jason Kandel, Staff Writer

Los Angeles Daily News, CA
Nov 22 2004

With two of the nation’s largest ports and a U.S. border nearby,
Southern California leads the nation in one line of auto exports —
stolen cars that are being shipped overseas, where they fetch as much
as four times what they’re worth here.

Organized crime rings in Los Angeles, aided by scores of body shops,
contribute heavily to an auto theft industry that adds to an annual
loss of $8 billion nationwide.

About 1.2 million vehicles are stolen every year in the United
States — 70,000 of them in Los Angeles County — and some 200,000
are illegally exported.

“It’s like a kid in the candy store. There are so many vehicles out
there to look at and to steal,” said California Highway Patrol Lt.
Jeff Lee, an expert in Russian organized crime. “The money these
people are making, shipping them overseas, is phenomenal.”

In recent years, police in the San Fernando Valley have noted an
increase in activity by an organized ring of Russian Armenians who
have been lured from cigarette and jewelry store burglaries to auto
theft. The pickings are easy in car-crazy L.A., the risk of getting
caught is minimal and the penalties are lenient, officials said.

“You’ve got guys you could call career auto thieves,” said CHP Sgt.
John Antillon, who supervises a cargo theft team at the Port of
Los Angeles.

While it is unknown how many cars are shipped out or driven over the
border every year, the CHP said it intercepted nearly $8 million worth
of stolen vehicles at the Port of Los Angeles in 2003, and recovered
up to 5,000 stolen vehicles in Mexico.

“That amount of money makes it a lucrative endeavor for organized
rings and professional operators,” said Robert M. Bryant, president
and chief executive officer of the National Insurance Crime Bureau.

Greg Terp, who chairs the North American Export Committee —
a coalition of authorities committed to combating the global auto
theft problem — said he has seen auto theft rings run by the Mafia,
as well as Asian, Eurasian, Eastern European, South American, Central
American and Caribbean crime groups.

“They’re organized,” he said. “They’re making a lot money out of it.”

State and national authorities are working together to break up
auto-theft rings. CHP officers are now in Ukraine to train police
there on auto theft detection techniques.

U.S. authorities also are using computer technology to read the
license plates of vehicles passing through the U.S. borders with
Mexico and Canada.

Investigators conduct regular inspections of chop shops, sifting
through tons of metal and debris, but it’s a tough fight.

“The challenge is trying to take down these organized groups and stop
it before it gets overseas,” said Sgt. Rodney Ellison of the CHP’s
Vehicle Theft Unit, headquartered in Sacramento. “It’s a big problem.”

Ray Unsell, a special agent with the National Insurance Crime Bureau,
based in Las Vegas, said car thieves take advantage of the relatively
low risk and huge payoffs. But taking down a tangled criminal
organization can be frustrating.

“It is difficult to prove any actual connection because you don’t have
people talking,” said Unsell, who regularly works with Los Angeles
and California authorities on auto theft cases in Las Vegas.

“You have a choice in Russian organized crime — if you talk, you’re
dead. The people inside know what their status is.”

BAKU: Azeri FM urges foreign envoys to respect int’l law

Turan news agency, Baku, in Russian
18 Nov 04

Azeri foreign minister urges foreign envoys to respect international
law

Baku, 18 November: Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov has
received the ambassadors of countries of the European Union and the
Organization of the Islamic Conference, as well as the US and Chinese
ambassadors.

The minister spoke highly of the efforts of the countries which
supported on 29 October Azerbaijan’s initiative to include the issue
of the “situation on the occupied Azerbaijani territories” in the
agenda of the 59th session of the UN General Assembly.

Mammadyarov drew the attention of the foreign diplomats to Armenia’s
settling the occupied Azerbaijani territories, which runs counter to
the norms of international humanitarian law and provision 949 of the
Geneva Convention. In this connection, the Azerbaijani foreign
minister stressed the importance of the international community’s
principled position to prevent this illegal activity.

The minister added that the purpose in raising this issue with the UN
was not to replace the OSCE Minsk Group, but to attract the attention
of international organizations to the problem.

In conclusion, the minister expressed the hope that the countries the
diplomats represented at the meeting would support Azerbaijan and
that the world community would respect the norms of international
humanitarian law.