ARMENIA-TURKEY DEAL A BIG LEAP
Saudi Gazette
Sept 2 2009
Saudi Arabia
ARMENIA and Turkey have taken a major step forward by agreeing to a
plan for establishing diplomatic ties, experts said Tuesday, but the
deal does not yet mark an end to decades of hostility.
Domestic opposition, objections from Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan and
lingering distrust between the two countries could still derail their
efforts to overcome nearly a century of acrimony, analysts said.
Most nonetheless agreed that the creation of a timetable for
establishing ties and reopening their long-sealed border was a
historic moment.
"It is a very, very serious step toward the completion of the
negotiating process, and the questions of the border reopening and
the establishment of diplomatic ties will be solved very soon… It
is a matter of six months to a year," Yerevan-based political analyst
Alexander Iskandarian said.
The agreement announced Monday foresees the signing of two protocols
on establishing diplomatic relations and developing bilateral ties
following six weeks of "internal political consultations".
Turkey has long refused to establish diplomatic links with Armenia
over Yerevan’s efforts to have World War I-era massacres of Armenians
by Ottoman Turks recognized as genocide — a label Turkey strongly
rejects.
Turkey also closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with
ally Azerbaijan over Yerevan’s backing of ethnic Armenian separatists
in the breakaway Nagorny Karabakh region.
Analysts said the agreement of a precise timetable was a sign of the
seriousness of the plan. "This is fantastic news, it seems these are
very serious declarations, a very serious timetable," said Hugh Pope,
a Turkey analyst for the International Crisis Group.
"Huge progress has been made, starting with intellectuals and
academics and then with some business people getting involved and
even ex-officials have been trying to get Turkey away from the old
nationalist rhetorics," he said.
Washington and Paris Monday warmly welcomed the deal, which followed a
year of Swiss-brokered talks and a historic visit by Turkish President
Abdullah Gul to Armenia for a football match last September. Still,
it is unclear how long the process of ratification could take and
Turkey has already cast some doubts on the reopening of the border.
"At the moment opening the border is not foreseen and it is not the
priority," Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told Turkey’s NTV
channel late Monday. He later added that Turkey would take no action
"that would hurt the interests of Azerbaijan".
Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesman Elkhan Polukhov said Tuesday
that Baku was confident Ankara would not agree to open the border
without a deal on Nagorny Karabakh. "Azerbaijan’s position is based
on numerous statements from high-ranking officials in Turkey on the
question of opening the Armenian-Turkish border," he told AFP. "The
opening of the border without the settlement of the Nagorny Karabakh
conflict would contradict the interests of Azerbaijan."
Turkey’s immediate raising of Azerbaijan’s interests following
Monday’s announcement could signal a step back on the border issue,
Armenian political analyst Sergei Shakarian said. "The border will not
be re-opened, not within six weeks or six months, or in two years,
because the Karabakh issue will not be resolved within this time,"
he said.
The agreement could also face strong domestic opposition in both
countries, analysts said, and the ratification process could drag
on. "It is a very positive development, but of course we cannot say
that the thing is in the bag," former Turkish diplomat Ilter Turkmen
told CNN-Turk television.
"There is a long process ahead of us, first with six weeks of
negotiations, then the ratification of the protocols before
Parliament. There is no certainty over what will happen in
parliament. It is likely that the opposition will oppose this project,
that there will be long arguments."