BABACAN IN YEREVAN: UNFULFILLED PROPHECIES OF THE WESTERN PRESS
PanArmenian News
April 18 2009
Armenia
Once again Baku attempts to gamble on her hydrocarbons: in 1918 it
was oil, now it’s gas.
The past week was unusually saturated with events, most of which
were quite expected. It especially concerns the "GUESS" game the
Turkish Foreign Minister played, i.e. whether he will arrive or
not, although after the meeting in Istanbul with Barack Obama it
was clear that Ali Babacan could not but arrive in Yerevan. However,
his arrival changed almost nothing in the Armenian-Turkish relations:
the agreement on restoration of diplomatic relations between Armenia
and Turkey, declared by the western press on April 16, was not signed.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ As a matter of principle, its signing was hardly
possible: the two sides are too isolated from each other and too far
from the attempts to agree at least on one question. No matter how
hard the foreign ministers of Armenia and Turkey try to assure us,
the negotiations are now in a deadlock.
That Turkey was not going to yield any of the prerequisites proposed by
her was clear still when negotiations had barely started in Switzerland
in 2007. It would be too naive of us to assume that Armenia could
act differently. But the matter is not even in concessions.
The matter is in the Kars agreement, on the fulfillment of which
insists Turkey, namely on the recognition of boundaries by Armenia. Of
course, if we follow the same Kars agreement, we should speak not of
the Armenian-Turkish, but of the Russian-Turkish border, especially
because to this day the Russian frontier-guards protect it together
with the Armenian ones. Hence, not much devised are the assumptions
that the idea of opening the border and establishment of diplomatic
relations – or vice versa, no difference – proceed first of all from
Moscow. In that way she disrupts the fragile but already existing
status quo. In the region it is especially Iran that is extremely
interested in the disturbance of the existing status quo. Expressing
it in words that there must not be closed countries in the region,
Tehran at the same time implies that in the Islamic environment it is
exactly her that is necessary for Armenia. However, it is necessary
to clarify that there are all kinds of Islam. Persians cannot stand
the Ottoman Turks, let alone the Caucasian Tatars, and in this
connection the latest "discontented" statements of Baku regarding
the reception of the President of Armenia by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are
simply ignored. And, in principle, that’s for good.
Once again Baku attempts to gamble on her hydrocarbons. In 1918 it was
oil, now it is gas. However, the Aliyev clan misses one point: times
have changed and no one in the world will count only on the Azerbaijani
gas, perfectly realizing that in this matter Aliyev will follow the
Russian model, i.e. at the moment most convenient for himself he will
close the pipe. Europe knows it quite well and for this very reason
it hurries to maintain relations with Iran, which is less capricious
and if asserted that she will not be interfered in the development
of nuclear energy, everything will be in order. Even to say, experts
directly state that the Azerbaijani gas is in no way sufficient for
the Nabucco project; Iranian and Turkmen gas is also essential.
On the same week the CSTO Foreign Ministers’ Summit was held in
Yerevan. The non-participation of Uzbekistan in the works of the summit
came as news, which indicated that Uzbekistan was going to leave the
organization. However, the Secretary General of CSTO Nikolai Bordyuzha
quieted all, saying that Uzbekistan was not going to pull out of the
security group. "Hearsay on Uzbekistan’s secession may be conditioned
by suspension of the country’s membership in EurAsEC. Uzbekistan’s
delegation doesn’t participate in current summit due to objective
reasons. CSTO leadership was informed about it beforehand," said the
Secretary General of CSTO Nikolai Bordyuzha. At the same time he noted
that the representatives of Uzbekistan, including the governing body of
the country, had always confirmed their interest in the CSTO activity.
Meanwhile it should be noted that Uzbekistan is not officially in the
Collective Security Treaty Organization, because it has not signed
the basic documents on membership. But from a non-formal point of view
these ins and outs of Uzbekistan will still continue for rather long.
As far as another not a less interesting question is concerned in the
person of Iran, according to Bordyuzha, Iran is not going to enter
CSTO, but it is interested in cooperation. "Iran is interested in
practical collaboration with the organization, particularly in fighting
drug trafficking. Iran participates in all the operations, organized
by CSTO in fighting drug trafficking, but she made an especially good
showing in the operation "Channel 2008", Bordyuzha emphasized.
In Moscow the Presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan had a meeting, in
which Ilham Aliyev once again attempted to link the Karabakh priblem
with all the conflicts and unresolved problems in the region, but
to all appearances he failed, if we do not take into consideration
several evidently custom-made articles on "Russia’s being in need
for Azerbaijan", which is not even ridiculous any more.
And as the curtain was falling, there came the truly sensational
words of the US President Barack Obama, noting that the United States’
policy should not be interference in other countries. "But that also
means that we can’t blame the United States for every problem that
arises in the hemisphere, that is part of the bargain. That is the
old way, we need a new way. I know there is a longer journey that must
be traveled in overcoming decades of mistrust, but there are critical
steps we can take toward a new day. We seek an equal partnership …",
said Obama, AP reports.
Georgian opposition continues to hold rallies, however, without
considerable success, and she traditionally blames Russia for this.