Author: Eduard Nalbandian

Asia Times



[Things are moving quickly with both sides making efforts to look like
they're not giving concessions]

By MK Bhadrakumar
       

The frozen lake of US-Iran confrontation is generating a pinging
sound. The cracking of the ice is yet to produce that loud booming
thunderclap. But these are early days.

It was only last Thursday that the US and the three European states
who are party to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (2015 Iran
nuclear deal) – Germany, France and the UK, or the “E3” – lobbed a
joint statement across the court to Tehran, whereby US President Joe
Biden’s administration announced its willingness to return to
diplomacy with Iran.

It was an opening move, where the Biden administration merely
reiterated its position that it will return to the JCPOA if Tehran
returns to strict compliance with it. The E3 and the US seek to
strengthen the JCPOA to address broader security concerns related to
Iran. But certain other moves went along with it on the same day:

    Washington expressed its acceptance of an invitation from the
European Union High Representative to attend a meeting of the
so-called P5+1 countries – Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and
the United States – with Iran for an informal “diplomatic
conversation” to chart a way forward;

    The Biden administration rescinded the Donald Trump
administration’s decision in September 2020 to invoke “snapback
sanctions” worldwide at the United Nations – a provision under
Security Council Resolution 2231 – that was earlier rejected by the
other 14 members of the council; and
    The Biden administration also informed Iran’s UN Mission in New
York that it had removed Trump’s travel restrictions on its diplomats
in New York, which allows them now to move anywhere within a 25-mile
(40-kilometer) radius of the UN headquarters. Some Iranian officials
also may be allowed to travel to the UN.

A conversation between US and Iranian diplomats in an informal setting
certainly serves a purpose insofar as it is a follow-up on an idea
floated by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif during an interview
with CNN on February 1 that the EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell
could assume the role of coordinator and create a mechanism to
choreograph the steps to be taken simultaneously by both the Iranian
and US sides to achieve JCPOA reinstatement.

Informal meeting

By Saturday, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, the
country’s chief nuclear negotiator, was on record saying that Tehran
too was considering the proposition from Brussels and would “respond
to this proposal [on an informal meeting] in the future.”

Now, it is easy to see that the retraction on the “snapback sanctions”
and the removal of restrictions on Iranian diplomats are necessary
prerequisites of a US-Iranian engagement.

Meanwhile, on Friday, Biden said at the virtual Munich Security
Conference that the US is driven to “re-engage in negotiations” to
revive the JCPOA. He added a positive note: “We need transparency and
communication to minimize the rise of strategic misunderstanding or
mistakes.”

On Sunday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said
the US has started talks with Iran over the return of at least five
American hostages Tehran is holding. “We have begun to communicate
with the Iranians on this issue,” Sullivan said.

Also on Sunday, Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic
Energy Agency, met with officials in Tehran to try to maintain his
inspectors’ ability to monitor Iran’s nuclear program. After the
talks, a joint statement was issued, which suggests that “a temporary
bilateral technical understanding” has been reached for a three-month
period to continue necessary verification and monitoring activities.

But the deal also calls for less access for IAEA inspectors and no
more snap inspections. That is to say, Iran is sticking to its stance
that unless the US lifts its sanctions, it will soon abandon the
Additional Protocol of the JCPOA, but is only partially curbing the
inspectors’ activity at this point.

Broadly, both the US and Iran are slowly but steadily edging back to
the negotiating table. Both want the other party to go first, and
neither would allow perceptions of weakness to form or that they’re
acting under pressure. It’s a delicate tango where both are also
compromising while appearing to do otherwise.

Newspapers on Sunday carried sensational reports quoting a
national-security source that the US is considering sanctions relief
for Iran as a first step toward reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. If so,
Washington is about to make the first move on the expectation that
Tehran would reciprocate with some significant compromises.
A difficult path for Biden

“Sanctions relief is definitely coming, not today or tomorrow but it
is coming,” the UK’s Sunday Times quoted its source.

But the catch is that Iran can return to the JCPOA by ceasing to
enrich uranium over the limit set by the deal, exporting most of its
stockpile, and warehousing banned centrifuges, whereas the Biden
administration has a far more difficult path to traverse by way of
untangling scores of Trump-era financial, economic, trade, targeted
personal and business sanctions and lift those that violate the JCPOA.

One possibility is that the Biden administration may move in this
direction after the “diplomatic conversation” that the EU
foreign-policy chief is facilitating. In Tehran’s estimation, the
lifting of US sanctions is now a foregone conclusion, only a matter of
time. There is much optimism that the White House will not allow any
interference by the United States’ regional allies.

A commentary published by Iran’s official Islamic Republic News Agency
(IRNA) draws satisfaction that President Biden “gave a cold shoulder”
to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and has not forgotten the
latter’s defiant behavior toward then president Barack Obama by
attending a congressional hearing in Washington without being invited
by the administration and criticizing the administration’s
negotiations with Iran.

It had “angered the then vice-President Joe Biden, who shouted that no
authority in Israel has the right to humiliate the US president.
Netanyahu has been advised to avoid direct confrontation with the
Biden administration.”

Again, there is talk that the White House intends to release a
redacted version of the Central Intelligence Agency report on the
brutal killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the consulate in
Istanbul in 2018. If the report holds that the Saudi crown prince is
culpable for the murder, it will rock US-Saudi relations.

Biden has made his aversion toward the Crown Prince Mohammad bin
Salman known by letting it be known that he will only interact with
King Salman.

Clearly, there is a profound sense of unease in Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates over the Biden administration’s decision to
engage with Iran. Conceivably, Tehran senses that a historic moment is
at hand marking the end of the United States’ decades-old strategy to
encircle Iran with an alliance of the Gulf Arab states and Israel.

As the situation around Iran begins to transform through the coming
weeks and months, West Asian politics and the regional security
scenario will change beyond recognition. The Western powers are for
the first time talking about the imperative need of reconciliation
between and among the regional states of the Persian Gulf instead of
fueling the regional rifts and capitalizing on them.

In their statement of February 18, the US and E3 “expressed their
joint determination to work toward de-escalating tensions in the Gulf
region.” By force of circumstances, the Western powers are
appropriating an idea that Russia and China have been expounding all
along.


 

                                        Friday, 

Defense Contractor Protests Against ‘Illegal’ Arrest

        • Gayane Saribekian
        • Astghik Bedevian

Armenia -- A screenshot of a National Security Service vide of the arrest of 
defense contractor Davit Galstian, February 1, 2021

The owner of a company supplying Armenia’s armed forces with weapons and 
ammunition on Friday strongly denied fraud charges leveled against him and said 
he was arrested illegally.

The businessman, Davit Galstian, protested his innocence as the Court of Appeals 
opened hearings on his pre-trial arrest which was sanctioned by a lower court 
earlier this month.

The charges stem from a $1 million contract for the supply of artillery shells 
which Galstian’s Mosston Engineering company signed with the Armenian Defense 
Ministry in 2018.

In a February 1 statement, the National Security Service (NSS) said the company 
breached the contract by providing the ministry with ammunition designed for 
older and different artillery systems. It said artillery units could not 
accomplish their “combat tasks” with those shells.

A Yerevan court of first instance agreed to remand Galstian and Mosston’s 
executive director, Armen Baghdasarian, in custody pending investigation. The 
suspects asked the Court of Appeals to overturn that decision.

“The court of first instance made an illegal decision,” Galstian’s lawyer 
insisted after the first Court of Appeals hearing. He said the ammunition sold 
to the Armenian military “fully corresponded to the requirements of the supply 
contract.”

Galstian is also facing three other criminal investigations into his companies’ 
dealings with the military. The NSS has so far released no details of those 
inquiries.

It remains unclear whether any current or former Defense Ministry officials are 
also under investigation.

In a written statement issued on Friday, Galstian blamed his “illegal” arrest 
and prosecution on “interested individuals” who he said what to scapegoat him 
for Armenia’s defeat in the autumn war in Nagorno-Karabakh. In that regard, he 
pointed the finger at unnamed individuals who have alleged corrupt practices in 
the Armenian government’s military procurements.

Former President Serzh Sarkisian made such allegations earlier this week in 
response to government loyalists’ claims that during his decade-long rule 
widespread corruption had a severe impact on national security.

Sarkisian charged that before and during the six-week war the current government 
bypassed the Defense Ministry to buy weapons and ammunition at grossly inflated 
prices. In particular, he said, it purchased flak jackets for Armenian soldiers 
for as much as $600 apiece.

A spokesman for Prosecutor-General Artur Davtian told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service 
on Friday that law-enforcement authorities are looking into Sarkisian’s 
allegations

The official, Gor Abrahamian, said at the same time that the NSS launched in 
November an inquiry into the supply of flak jackets. He would not say whether 
anybody has been charged as part of that probe.



Armenian Authorities Reaffirm Plans For Limited COVID-19 Vaccination

        • Marine Khachatrian

RUSSIA -- A medical worker holds a vial with Russia's Sputnik V vaccine against 
the coronavirus at a vaccination point at the GUM department store in Moscow, 
January 18, 2021.

Armenian health authorities have reaffirmed plans to start vaccinating next 
month “high risk” groups of the country’s population against COVID-19.

According to a directive signed by Health Minister Anahit Avanesian on Monday, 
the “first phase” of vaccination will cover medical workers, care home 
personnel, persons aged 65 and older as well as younger Armenians suffering from 
chronic diseases. Military and law-enforcement personnel, rescue and public 
transport workers, civil servants, schoolteachers and university lecturers will 
be the next to get vaccine shots free of charge.

Avanesian gave no detailed timetables for the vaccination process when she spoke 
with journalists on Thursday. She said only that it will start in March.

Nor did Avanesian specify how many Armenians will have access to free 
inoculation against the coronavirus. She indicated that many people not included 
in either “high risk” category will have to pay for their vaccination.

“The quantity of vaccines imported to Armenia will depend on a number of 
factors, including their price and the amount of money the state can allocate 
for their acquisition,” she said.

Gayane Sahakian, the deputy director of the Armenian National Center for Disease 
Control, said last month that the authorities are planning to vaccinate only 10 
percent of Armenia’s population.

Sahakian said the first batch of a relatively cheap vaccine developed by the 
British company AstraZeneca and Oxford University will be delivered to the 
country soon. She said it will be supplied by the COVAX Facility global 
partnership supported by the World Health Organization.

Avanesian stated early this month that the Armenian government would also like 
to buy Russia’s Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine and is negotiating with Moscow for 
that purpose. No contracts for its acquisition have been announced so far.

The minister said on Thursday that the health authorities have also approved the 
Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. “It’s just that there are issues related to ensuring 
Pfizer’s storage temperature and they need to be solved,” she said.

“From the purely logistical standpoint, Sputnik V has some advantages,” Davit 
Melik-Nubarian, a public health expert, told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service.

“For example, while Moderna and Pfizer vaccines require a special regime for 
storage and transportation, namely a very low temperature, and are very 
sensitive to shaking, there are no such requirements in the case of Sputnik V,” 
said Melik-Nubarian. “For that reason, both Sputnik V and AstraZeneca will be 
easier to use in Armenia.”



Another Anti-Pashinian Mayor Prosecuted

        • Susan Badalian

Armenia -- Meghri Mayor Mkhitar Zakarian speaks with journalists, September 21, 
2019.

Armenian prosecutors have brought criminal charges against yet another local 
government official who demanded Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s resignation 
following the war in Nagorno-Karabakh.

In a statement released on Thursday, the Office of the Prosecutor-General said 
Mkhitar Zakarian, the mayor of the southeastern towns of Agarak and Meghri and 
nearby villages making up a single administrative unit, has been charged with 
abuse of power.

The accusation stems from the use of a small plot of agricultural land belonging 
to the community which has been rented by an Agarak resident since 2007. The 
statement said that the latter illegally rented the land to a mobile phone 
company at a much higher price.

“[Zakarian] should have annulled the lease agreement because of its blatant 
breach,” Sedrak Besalian, a prosecutor overseeing the investigation, told 
RFE/RL’s Armenian Service.

Besalian also claimed that the mayor caused his community 3.7 million drams 
($7,100) in financial damage.

Zakarian on Friday dismissed the accusation as “absurd.” “I can’t understand 
what my alleged crime is all about,” he said. “They won’t give me any clear 
explanation.”

Zakarian argued, in particular, that the lease agreement was signed before he 
was elected mayor of Agarak and that he significantly improved its financial 
terms for the local community after taking office in 2008.

The official was careful not to describe the accusation as politically 
motivated. But he did suggest that prosecutors may have indicted him in order to 
please the Armenian government.

Zakarian was among the heads of a dozen communities in Armenia’s southeastern 
Syunik province who issued statements in early December condemning Pashinian’s 
handling of the war with Azerbaijan and demanding his resignation. They also 
accused Pashinian of putting Syunik’s security at grave risk with Armenian troop 
withdrawals from adjacent areas southwest of Karabakh.

Later in December law-enforcement authorities leveled separate criminal charges 
against two of those mayors running the towns of Goris and Kajaran. Armenian 
courts refused to allow their arrest sought by investigators.

Both mayors rejected the accusations as politically motivated. They encouraged 
hundreds of local residents who blocked a regional highway to disrupt 
Pashinian’s visit to Syunik on December 21.

The prosecutors did not move to arrest Zakarian. The Meghri mayor told RFE/RL’s 
Armenian Service that he agreed to post bail to avoid pre-trial detention. He 
said he is confident that he will be cleared of any wrongdoing.


Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
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