Author: Elizabeth Jabejian

Will Iran’s past become prologue for Nagorno-Karabakh?

Elizabeth Jabejian
AXIOS
Oct 8 2020
 
 
Behnam Ben Taleblu

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is calling for “stability” and an “end” to the current fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan — but should the conflict between its northern neighbors escalate, Tehran may well deepen its involvement.

What to watch: Iran's recent history — specifically the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) — provides a model of how that escalation might happen.

The big picture: The foreign-supplied arsenals boasted by both Armenia and Azerbaijan carry the risk of missile salvos targeting one another’s population centers, as seen in the "War of the Cities" between Iran and Iraq.

Another similarity between the two conflicts is the role of proxy forces.

  • Iran created Lebanese Hezbollah in 1982, the same year it invaded Iraq. During the war, Tehran relied on the Badr Organization, a group of Iraqi Shiite exiles to fight Saddam Hussein’s army.
  • Now, there are reportedly Syrian jihadists fighting on Azerbaijan’s side, with support from Turkey, a development Iran’s Rouhani called “unacceptable.”

The Iran-Iraq War also demonstrates that new alliances can come together, and multiple conflicts can converge, over the course of a larger war.

  • For example, Iran unsuccessfully took on the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf during its war with Iraq.
  • Where things stand: Turkey is already playing an active role in the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and another neighbor, Russia, clearly has interests to protect as well.

What to watch: Less attention is being played to the role of a third neighbor, Iran, which previously backed Christian Armenia rather than Shiite Azerbaijan when the two went to war in the 1990s, a decision best explained by geopolitics.

  • Tehran officially supports Azerbaijan's territorial integrity (Nagorno-Karabakh is inside Azerbaijan's borders), but has been accused of favoring Armenia and providing supplies to the Armenian-aligned government in Nagorno-Karabakh prior to the recent flare-up (Iran denies that).
  • There have been at least two indications that Iran may take a larger role now: ethnic Azeri protests in Iran in favor of Azerbaijan, and warnings by Iranian security officials that a spillover of shelling into Iranian territory won't be tolerated.
  • Iran may also seize any opportunities to export weapons and offset adversaries like Israel, which is a leading arms exporter to Azerbaijan.

The bottom line: If the peaceful settlement Rouhani and others are calling for arrives soon, those calculations won't come into play. If not, we could see shadows of another war that began four decades ago.

Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies

 
 
 
 
 

JP: Can Armenia-Azerbaijan military claims be compared to Israel’s past wars?

Elizabeth Jabejian
Jerusalem Post
Oct 7 2020
 
 
Can Armenia-Azerbaijan military claims be compared to Israel's past wars?
 
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN   OCTOBER 7, 2020 20:24
 
 
The lopsided numbers shows what modern war looks like.
 
 
Azerbaijan and Armenian armed forces have been fighting for over a week and a half, and social media accounts linked to their respective defense ministries are engaged in an information war to make it appear as if the other side is losing heavily.
 
The numbers of tanks, vehicles and weapons each side claims to have destroyed is beginning to outpace some of the numbers on some fronts in the 1967 Six Day War – except with few of the actual gains on the ground to show for it.
  
Azerbaijan’s social media accounts now claim that it has destroyed up to 250 Armenian tanks and armored vehicles. They also say Azerbaijan has destroyed another 150 military vehicles, jeeps or supply trucks and neutralized 270 artillery pieces and multiple rocket launchers.
Baku also asserts it has hit more than 60 air defense systems, including an S-300 system, and smashed eight armories and 11 command and control centers.
The definition of an “air defense system” may be quite broad, considering some are only basic machine-gun emplacements. Since the numbers all seem to neatly end in a zero, it should be assumed they are estimated, or perhaps exaggerated.
Azerbaijan has released much drone footage showing the destruction of some 40 Armenian T-72 tanks, according to reports. This suggests that while the figures may be estimates or for propaganda purposes, there have been many losses on the Armenian side.
As for the Armenians, they claim to have destroyed whole divisions’ worth of Azeri materiel. Some 127 drones have been shot down, as well as 16 helicopters and 17 planes; four larger Smerch rocket launchers have been hit, and 416 Azerbaijan military vehicles have been destroyed.
The numbers also suggest that both sides have lost more than the Syrians and the Jordanians lost in 1967, although they have not yet outpaced the Egyptian front, where hundreds of Egyptian tanks and thousands of vehicles were destroyed or abandoned during fierce fighting in the Sinai peninsula.
Even if they are remotely accurate, the size of the losses illustrates the size and impact of the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. It also illustrates how information warfare and propaganda spread through the media can make it appear that one side, or the other, has suffered devastating losses.
The number of UAVs, for instance, that Armenia claims to have downed is unprecedented. The number of artillery pieces that Azerbaijan says it has struck and air defense systems taken out is also more than in many past wars.
For instance, Israel’s operation in the Bekaa Valley in 1982, designed to suppress Syrian air defense in Lebanon, hit some 29 surface-to-air missile batteries; but if Baku is to be believed, it has now surpassed that number.
Israel destroyed the batteries in around two hours, but it has taken the Azeris a week or so. However, the use of drones by Azerbaijan – particularly loitering munitions, many of them Israeli made – illustrates the effectiveness of these weapons.
The lopsided numbers, whereby Azerbaijan claims to have destroyed much of Armenia’s air defenses, while Armenia claims to have downed much of Azerbaijan’s drone fleet, portrays the face of modern warfare. It is about using sensors to identify enemy positions, vehicles and targets, while the other side uses radar and electronic means to identify threats.
Both sides then seek a technological overmatch to neutralize the enemy’s platforms.
This can result in extremely lopsided conflicts, like the US waged against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1991. Once a side gains control of the air and can hunt down enemy tanks and air defenses, the enemy must rely on long-range rockets and other desperate means. Either way, the use of sensors to find and eliminate targets can make large armored forces vulnerable.  
The Azeris and Armenians are now finding out what other countries have learned in past conflicts: no plan survives after contact with an enemy force. Both sides brought different types of forces to the battlefield, but it is not clear whether one side has a major advantage.
Although the Armenians have been pushed back bit by bit, there is still a question when they will feel they have been strained to breaking point on the ground – or if their ability to resist will be enough to wear down Azerbaijan’s forces.
 
 

Yerevan reports offensive of Azerbaijani troops in the north, south of Nagorno-Karabakh

Elizabeth Jabejian
TASS, Russia
Oct 3 2020
There are fierce battles in the northern and southern areas of Artsakh, press secretary of the Armenian Defense Ministry wrote on her Facebook page

YEREVAN, October 3. /TASS/. The Armenian Defense Ministry reported that the Azerbaijani Armed Forces launched an offensive in the south and in the north of the Nagorno-Karabakh.

"There are fierce battles in the northern and southern areas of Artsakh (unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic – TASS). The enemy, having concentrated large forces in these areas, set out on an offensive," Shushan Stepanyan, press secretary of the Armenian Defense Ministry wrote on her Facebook page. According to her, "the Armenian units are holding the enemy's advance."

Renewed clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia erupted on September 27, with intense battles raging in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The area experienced flare-ups of violence in the summer of 2014, in April 2016 and this past July. Azerbaijan and Armenia have imposed martial law and launched mobilization efforts. Both parties to the conflict have reported casualties, among them civilians.

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed territory that had been part of Azerbaijan before the Soviet Union break-up, but primarily populated by ethnic Armenians, broke out in February 1988 after the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region announced its withdrawal from the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. In 1992-1994, tensions boiled over and exploded into large-scale military action for control over the enclave and seven adjacent territories after Azerbaijan lost control of them.

Pashinyan confirmed ‘secret talks’ with Azerbaijani leader

Elizabeth Jabejian
Tert.am, Armenia
Sept 25 2020
Pashinyan confirmed 'secret talks' with Azerbaijani leader
With his statement made at the meeting with the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) parliament speaker in Yerevan, Nikol Pashinyan practically confirmed that he is in secret negotiations with the Azerbaijani leader, political analyst Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan said on Facebook today, commenting on the remarks voiced by the prime minister.

"Nikol Pashinyan actually confirmed the reports released by the Azerbaijani media since yesterday that there are secret talks between him and [Azerbaijani President Ilham] Aliyev. [He reaffirmed] that he asked for Aliyev's help in the domestic political campaign in Armenia …

"That man stated plainly that the Azerbaijanis expose 'confidential information'. And then he recommended that the Azerbaijani colleagues abandon the scenario because 'once we enter into that domain,  I am afraid the domestic political situation in Azerbaijan will deteriorate dramatically.'

"Do you see now what Pashinyan is afraid of? Lest the situation in Azerbaijan should deteriorate dramatically …" reads the statement on his public profile.



CivilNet: iGorts Diaspora Program Kicks Off in Armenia

Elizabeth Jabejian
CIVILNET.AM

21:04

The iGorts program, designed by the Office of Armenia’s High Commissioner of Diaspora Affairs, brings professional Armenians from various fields throughout the diaspora to work in Armenia’s government institutions.

CivilNet’s Ani Paitjan talks with High Commissioner Zareh Sinanyan and program participants from Austria and Canada about the goals and expectations of the program. 

Beirut-based Armenian media executives suspect foul play in successive fires

Elizabeth Jabejian

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 14:27,

YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 15, ARMENPRESS. As Beirut was still struggling to recover from the trauma inflicted from the August 4 explosion of 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate at the city’s port when at least 192 people were killed, more than 6,000 injured, and homes and other property were devastated for many miles around, the Lebanese capital was hit by two fires again – one near the same place in the port, and the other on September 15 at a commercial district.

Now, after the most recent fire, two prominent Lebanese-Armenian figures are suspecting that the incidents involve some kind of foul play.

Beirut-based Aztag Daily’s Editor-in-Chief Shahan Kandaharian told ARMENPRESS that authorities haven’t yet determined the cause of the September 15 brief fire in the commercial building.

“Fortunately there was no explosion here, however, these similar successive incidents are creating a very bad mood. After what happened a month ago, these fires give reason for suspicions, and also create somewhat panic and a difficult psychological situation,” Kandaharian said.

Sevak Hakobian, the Editor-in-Chief of another Beirut-based newspaper – Zartonk – told ARMENPRESS that it would be “naïve” to consider that all these incidents happened coincidentally.

“Three incidents in one month, the explosion in the port, then a fire in the same port, and now a fire in a commercial building.[Authorities] haven’t yet announced the cause of the fire, but I think that this all is happening in an atmosphere of general pressure,” Hakobyan said.

Neither Kandaharian nor Hakobyan elaborated. 

Reporting by Lilit Demuryan; Editing and Translating by Stepan Kocharyan

Music: Mansurian says he enjoys working with young musicians

Elizabeth Jabejian
Panorama, Armenia
Sept 14 2020

The Karen Demirchyan Sports and Concerts Complex in Yerevan will host the opening concert of the 15th jubilee season of the Armenian State Symphony Orchestra (ASSO) on Tuesday, September 15, its artistic director and principal conductor Sergey Smbatyan told a news conference on Monday.

Summing up the 14th concert season of the orchestra, the conductor said that it was pretty eventful, as they performed 51 concerts and played more than 190 compositions, including pieces written especially for the orchestra. They also shared the stage with brilliant soloists, Smbatyan said.

He noted that 100 out of 190 music pieces performed by the orchestra have been composed by Armenians. "The mission of our symphony orchestra is not only to perform many famous works, but also to motivate Armenian composers, which they have succeeded in," the conductor said.

In Smbatyan’s words, 50 concerts, three very important concert tours, two very big and important recording projects, as well three festivals are planned during the 15th season.

"The most important thing for us is that the 15th concert season of the State Symphony Orchestra of Armenia will start at the Karen Demirchyan Sports and Concerts Complex tomorrow,” he said, adding the concert program features three pieces from "The Snow Queen" ballet by prominent Armenian composer Tigran Mansurian.

"We no longer imagine our life without the maestro," said the ASSO artistic director.

Mansurian, who was present at the press conference too, said that seven prayers from “Confessing with Faith” based on a collection of prayers written by famous Armenian priest Nerses Shnorhali, were initially set to be performed at tomorrow’s concert.

"Unfortunately, it requires a large choir. These days, it is not possible to bring 90 members of [Hovhannes] Chekidjian’s Academic Choir together on one stage and perform [the prayers]. We are going to do it in the near future," the maestro noted.

Mansurian said that the joint programs with the Armenian State Symphony Orchestra are entering a new phase, stressing he enjoys working with young musicians.

"I am committed to all potent forces, that promise a bright future and development of music life," Mansurian said.

Director of the Karen Demirchyan Sports and Concerts Complex, Karen Ghazaryan, said, in turn, that one of their priorities was for the State Symphony Orchestra to find its place in the concert hall, so that the complex would become a home for the orchestra and serve as a platform for delivering good music.

Also, he added that the concert hall is ready to welcome audiences, with social distancing guidelines in place.

Armenia National Institute of Health to open chapter in Artsakh

Elizabeth Jabejian

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 13:00,

STEPANAKERT, SEPTEMBER 14, ARMENPRESS. President of Artsakh Arayik Harutyunyan received Armenia’s Healthcare Minister Arsen Torosyan on September 14 in Stepanakert.

The President told Torosyan that they are planning to ramp up healthcare spending to have free and high-quality medical services for all. In this context the President attached importance to deepening cooperation with Armenia’s Healthcare Minister and medical centers for involving experts and organizing continuous training for personnel.

He also thanked the Government of Armenia for donating ambulances to Artsakh’s health authorities, noting that the equipment is “an unprecedented gift for the Artsakhi healthcare system and will solve issues of vital importance.”

Torosyan welcomed the health reforms in Artsakh and said that the Government of Armenia will continue taking steps for supporting them. He said that the National Institute of Health of the Armenian Healthcare Ministry will soon open a branch in Artsakh where medical personnel will undergo training and specialty lectures.

Editing and Translating by Stepan Kocharyan

Hayastan All-Armenian Fund Donating Over $400,000 To Lebanon

Elizabeth Jabejian
The 961, Lebanon
Sept 12 2020
Souad Lazkani·

Lebanon News

After the tragic explosion of the Beirut port, the Hayastan All-Armenian Fund launched a fundraiser to provide urgent support for Lebanese-Armenians affected by the catastrophe.

The initiative, which goal was to raise $300,000, was able to raise $412,000.

The donations will be used to support teachers, education, and media outlets of the Armenian community in Lebanon.

The Fund announced that $310,000 of the total donations will be used to pay salaries of teachers in Armenian educational institutions for the first quarter of the upcoming academic year.

“The additional donation of $100,000 will be directed to the implementation of educational programs,” said the Fund in a statement.

“Another $13,000 will be donated to Armenian media outlets operating in Lebanon: Ararat, Zartonk, Azdak, Vana Dzayn, and Radio Sevan.”

Executive Director of the Hayastan All Armenian Fund, Haykak Arshamyan, is currently in Beirut to deliver the donation.

Two weeks ago, the Hayastan All Armenian Fund organized a fundraising concert “For You Lebanon” to help Lebanese-Armenians impacted by the blast.

Lebanon is home to hundreds of thousands of Lebanese-Armenians. Their community was among those directly affected by the tragedy of August 4th