Author: Emil Lazarian

Armenian opposition stands firm on staging demo on 9 April

Arminfo
8 Apr 04

YEREVAN

The Yerevan Mayor’s Office has not authorized an opposition rally on 9
April, saying that this action is inexpedient, the leader of the
Anrapetutyun Party and Yerevan’s ex-mayor, Albert Bazeyan, told a
joint news conference of leaders of the opposition Justice bloc and
the National Unity Party at the Armenian parliament today.

At the same time, Bazeyan said that the rally would be staged
regardless of the aforesaid decision because the opposition considered
it expedient.

A member of the Anrapetutyun Party board and ex-prime minister, Aram
Sarkisyan, said that there was no alternative to changing the
authorities in Armenia regardless of who led the people’s
movement. “The 9th of April will become a turning point in the fate of
the Armenian people, the process of changing the authorities has
already begun and it will be taken to its end,” Sarkisyan said.
According to him, the change of power is a demand of society and all
actions to meet this demand will be carried out urgently and
dynamically. Sarkisyan expressed confidence that many people would
attend the 9 April rally and help the opposition carry out the change
of the authorities without special effort and clashes. Sarkisyan also
said that the Georgian experience of the power change was unacceptable
for Armenia because the situation in Armenia was radically different
from the situation in the neighbouring republic.

According to Sarkisyan, the Armenian authorities are scared of people
because they realize that if masses attend the opposition rally, the
country’s leadership will be forced to resign. “Precisely for this
reason the authorities are committing repression against opposition
representatives, trying to intimidate people and keep them from
attending the rally,” Sarkisyan added. The opposition cannot be
intimidated by arrests and repression as it is determined to change
the authorities, he said.

Sarkisyan spoke highly about Armenian Speaker Artur Bagdasaryan’s
statement yesterday [7 April], in which he condemned political arrests
in the country which were presented as criminal. “Artur Bagdasaryan is
a young and promising politician, and he is rightfully not linking
himself with President Robert Kocharyan,” Sarkisyan said.

Speaking about arrests of opposition representatives, the leader of
the Justice bloc, Stepan Demirchyan, said that the Armenian people
would not tolerate arrests of deputies elected by them while criminals
were at large. The leader of the National Unity Party, Artashes
Gegamyan, added that the country’s authorities would make a major
present to the opposition if they arrested him and Stepan Demirchyan.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Agence France Presse
April 9, 2004 Friday 7:35 AM Eastern Time

Asian states move step closer to building trans-national highway

BANGKOK

A decades-old dream of building Asia’s first trans-national highway
will move a step closer this month as 24 of 32 countries committed to
it will sign an agreement for a road from Japan to western Russia,
the United Nations said Friday.

The proposed Asian Highway would extend across 32 countries along
several routes, stretching through China south to Indonesia, and as
far west as Russia’s border with Finland, according to the UN
Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP).

“This 140,000 kilometre (87,000 mile) highway will contribute
tremendously to regional economic integration,” UNESCAP executive
secretary Kim Hak-Su told reporters ahead of the official signing in
Shanghai on April 26.

“All 32 countries have agreed in principle to signing, but it will
depend on passing this agreement internally through each country, so
not everyone will be ready to sign in Shanghai,” said Kim.

The UN first conceived of an Asian trans-national route in 1959, but
was unable to implement the project because of geo-political hurdles
at the time.

“Under the Cold War period we could not think of any highway running
through China or even Russia or the Korean peninsula,” said Kim,
adding that all Cold War states, including North Korea, had now
agreed to develop the route.

The agreement in Shanghai will outline roads to be built and upgraded
and establish minimum standards for the highway routes, while an
overall budget and time-frame for completion are expected to be
announced in 2006.

“Trade is increasing quite rapidly, about 40 percent last year, and
Asian countries realise they need this infrastructure to service that
growth,” said UNESCAP poverty and development division chief Raj
Kumar.

The UN would encourage governments and the private sector to jointly
fund the project.

“Funding arrangements are taking place now in many different forms.
Thailand is assisting Laos and Cambodia with soft loans, India is
assisting Nepal and Bhutan and the Asian Development Bank is looking
at funding other portions of the scheme,” said Kumar.

The main route — Asian Highway 1 — is expected to start in Tokyo
and terminate in Istanbul, passing though North and South Korea,
China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, India, Pakistan,
Afghanistan, Iran and Armenia along the way.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

ARKA News Agency
April 9 2004

Four best students of Armenian institutes awarded with name
scholarships after Isahak Isahakian

Coalition thinks that demand on conduction of referendum on vote of
confidence to RA president does not corresponds to constitution

Armenian opposition gives the authorities time till April 12 for
implementation of changes to the law on referendum

RA MFA and OACS Secretary General discuss regional goals

The RA President receives the Secretary- General of the Organization
for Agreement on Collective Security

The RA Minister of Foreign Affairs to go to Iran with an official
visit on April 12-13

RA President Robert Kocharyan: The present situation in Armenia may
be called as a revolution of empty vessels

*********************************************************************

FOUR BEST STUDENTS OF ARMENIAN INSTITUTES AWARDED WITH NAME
SCHOLARSHIPS AFTER ISAHAK ISAHAKIAN

YEREVAN, April 9. /ARKA/. Today in Central Bank of Armenia, four best
students of Armenian institutes were awarded with name scholarships
after Isahak Isahakian. Given activity is conducted second time.
According to the Chairman of CB Tigran Sargsian the activity is to
stimulate science-research works in the institutes’. All
students-participants represented their works that were studied by
the members of contest commission of CB and on this base four
students – Asmik Torosian, Asghik Gevorkian, Mariam Momdjian and
Arthur Grikorian. All of them will receive scholarships after Isahak
Isahakian in amount of 50 thousand AMD during six months. L.D. –0–

*********************************************************************

COALITION THINKS THAT DEMAND ON CONDUCTION OF REFERENDUM ON VOTE OF
CONFIDENCE TO RA PRESIDENT DOES NOT CORRESPONDS TO CONSTITUTION

YEREVAN, April 9. /ARKA/. Coalition thinks that demand on conduction
of referendum on vote of confidence to RA president does not
corresponds to constitution. According to statement of Republican
Party of Armenia, Orinats Yerkir Party and ARF Dashnaktsutyun,
coalition is ready to discuss any issue considering internal
political situation, including the issue of legality of given offer.
Today coalition discussed the issue of referendum at the working
sitting. At the same time opposition National Unity Party and Justice
Bloc conducted a rally in center of Yerevan. On different estimations
from 5 to 40 thousand people took part in the rally.
After 2003 presidential elections, opposition turned to
Constitutional Court with an offer to recognize the official results
of elections invalid. CC turned down the suit of opposition and
offered to conduct referendum on vote of confidence to the president
and make changes to election code of the republic. L.D. –0–

*********************************************************************

ARMENIAN OPPOSITION GIVES THE AUTHORITIES TIME TILL APRIL 12 FOR
IMPLEMENTATION OF CHANGES TO THE LAW ON REFERENDUM

YEREVAN, April 9. /ARKA/. Armenian opposition gives the authorities
time till April 12 for implementation of changes to the law on
referendum, ARKA correspondent reports from the meeting organized by
opposition party National Unity and Justice bloc. According to the
Secretary of Justice Bloc Viktor Dallakian, it may become a beginning
of a dialogue with authorities. `If the decision on the referendum is
not made, there will be no dialogue with coalition’, he said.
Dallakian said that the Secretary of National Unity Party Alexan
Karapetian took part in working sitting of the Parliament and
represented the package of changes to the members of the coalition.
`We have different scenarios considering the way of struggle in the
future’, Dallakian said urged the people `to stand till the end’.
After 2003 presidential elections, opposition turned to
Constitutional Court with an offer to recognize the official results
of elections invalid. CC turned down the suit of opposition and
offered to conduct referendum on vote of confidence to the president
and make changes to election code of the republic. L.D. –0–

*********************************************************************

RA MFA AND OACS SECRETARY GENERAL DISCUSS REGIONAL GOALS

YEREVAN, April 9. /ARKA/. RA Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian and
Secretary General of the Organization of Agreement on Collective
Security Nikolay Borduja discussed regional goals, RA MFA told ARKA.
The parties noted the importance of strengthening of the process of
ratification of document signed in the frames of OACS. Borduja noted
that the process of OACS creation is almost completed: the
organization takes part in the works of UN, it has joint
headquarters. The parties also discussed the agenda of oncoming
regular sitting of Collective Security Council and MFA Heads Council
scheduled on June 18-19. L.D. –0–

*********************************************************************

THE RA PRESIDENT RECEIVES THE SECRETARY- GENERAL OF THE ORGANIZATION
FOR AGREEMENT ON COLLECTIVE SECURITY

YEREVAN, April 9. /ARKA/. The RA President Robert Kocharyan received
the Secretary- General of the Organization for Agreement on
Collective Security (OACS) Nikolai Bordiuzha, who has arrived in
Armenia with a three-day official visit. According to the RA Press
Service Department, Bordiuzha introduced the issues to the President
with regard to the next session of the Council on Collective Security
to be held in Astana in June. The President and the Secretary-
General exchanged opinions regarding co-operation in the framework of
OACS and increasing the efficiency of co-operation. A.H. –0–

*********************************************************************

THE RA MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS TO GO TO IRAN WITH AN OFFICIAL
VISIT ON APRIL 12-13

YEREVAN, April 9. /ARKA/. Vartan Oskanian, the RA Minister of Foreign
Affairs will go to Iran with an official visit on April 12-13.
According to the RA MFA Press Service Department, meetings of
Oskanian with the President of Iran Mohammad Khatami, the Secretary
of the Security Council Gosan Rokhan, and the Head of the Iran
External Affairs Department Kamal Kharazi to take place within the
framework of the visit. A.H.–0 –

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

PRESS OFFICE
Contact; Deacon Hagop Arslanian, Assistant to the Primate
615 Stuart Avenue, Outremont Quebec H2V 3H2
Tel; 514-276-9479, Fax; 514-276-9960
Email; [email protected] Website;

Grand Nieces of the late Sara Corning visited His Eminence Bishop
Bagrat Galstanian

On Wednesday, April 7 2004 His Eminence Bishop Bagrat Galstanian
received the grand nieces of Sara Corning, Ms Margaret Peterson and Ms
Judith Csukly. During the cordial reception at the Diocesan
headquarters, Ms Margaret Peterson and Ms Judith Csukly talked
extensively about Sara Corning.

Sara Corning is a native of Nova Scotia who had rescued thousands of
Armenian Children from the port of Smyrna in the summer of 1922. These
were orphan children, survivors of the Armenian Genocide perpetrated
by the Ottoman Turks. As a member of the Red Cross unit in Near East,
in appreciation of Sara Corning’s dedication to humanitarian causes,
King George II of Greece had granted her “the Silver Cross of the
Knights” in June 1923. Sara Corning, therefore, has been a great
Canadian and a true friend of the Armenian people.

M.P Sarkis Assdourian, Chairman of Canada-Armenia Parliamentary
Friendship Group has organized a reception to pay tribute to the
memory of Sara Corning. On this occasion, the Spiritual Leader of the
Armenian Church His Holiness Karekin II, Catholicos of All Armenians,
has issued an Encyclical, which will be delivered to the relatives of
Sara Corning by His Eminence Bishop Bagrat Galstanian, Primate of the
Armenian Church of Canada on the 21st of April 2004.

A Successful Blood Drive in Commemoration of the Armenian Genocide

On April 2nd 2004, the Diocesan Youth Council of the Armenian Holy
Apostolic Church of Canada, under the auspices of His Eminence Bishop
Bagrat Galstanian, Primate organized a Blood Drive with Hema-Quebec at
Village Montpellier shopping centre in St Laurent.

This year, the Diocese of the Armenian Church of Canada and the
faithful have decided to commemorate the Armenian Genocide by helping
those in need and the less fortunate of the community. This is a way
for Canadian Armenians to express and to remember that despite the
planned extermination of Armeniansby the Turkish Ottoman Empire during
the First World War, the Armenian people are lively present and active
in today’s world. Asked why he’s donating blood, Sari Farra, an AGBU
scout said that “our forefathers lost their blood innocently; I
decided to commemorate that loss by giving my blood for a good cause”.
Hema-Quebec was very pleased by the outcome of this event. The
objective ofhundred donors was successfully reached do to generous
contribution of Armenian community members.

The event was the first being organized by the Church that will take
place in the month of April. The Church is also collecting toys in
support of the Montreal’s Children Hospital and non-perishable food
items in support of “Sun Youth”.

Martyrs Prayer and Ecumenical Service will take place commemorating
the Victims of the Armenian Genocide

Under the auspices of the Primate of the Armenian Church of Canada,
His Eminence Bishop Bagrat Galstanian, Martyrs Prayer and Ecumenical
Service will take place at Saint Gregory the Illuminator Armenian
Cathedral of Montreal (615, Stuart; Corner Bernard-Stuart) on Friday
night April 23, 2004 commemoratingthe victims of the Armenian
Genocide.

On this occasion, Montreal Church leaders and eminent political
representatives are invited to participate and deliver their
message. The Primate of the Ecclesiastical Province of Canada and the
Archbishop of the Anglican Church, His Eminence Andrew Hutchison of
Montréal will be the prime spiritual leader to deliver his message,
the representatives of Roman Catholic Cardinal of Greater Montreal,
Baptist, Lutheran, Presbyterian, Maronite, Greek Orthodox, Assyrian
and Coptic Churches will be attending the ceremony.

Bishop Galstanian will celebrate Divine Liturgy in Toronto

His Eminence Bishop Bagrat Galstnaian, will celebrate Divine Liturgy
on the occasion of the 89th anniversary of commemoration of the
Armenian Genocide at Holy Trinity Armenian Apostolic Church of
Toronto.

The leader of Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Toronto His Eminence
Aloysius Matthew Cardinal Ambrozic will be the prime speaker during
the ceremony. Abp of Anglican Archdiocese of Toronto Terrence Finley,
Secretary General of Canadian Council of Churches Dr Karen Hamilton,
Ecumenical representatives and politicians will be attending the
religious ceremony and the special requiem service on Saturday, April
24 at 7:00pm.

Armenian Art Exhibition under the auspices of the Primate

An art exhibition of artists from Armenia was held last week end
(April 2-4) in the Marie Manoogian Hall of the St-Gregory the
Illuminator Armenian Apostolic Cathedral in Outremont.

The event, which was the first of a series of events on the occasion
of the 20th Anniversary of the establishment of the Armenian Holy
Apostolic Church Canadian Diocese, was under the auspices of the
Primate of the Diocese, His Eminence Bishop Bagrat Galstanian.

The exhibition was a joint organization of the Parish Council of the
St. Gregory the Illuminator Armenian Apostolic Cathedral, “Momik”
Armenian Centre (Armenia) and “Armenian Art” magazine (Armenia). There
were more than 70 paintings exhibited which were works of several
Armenian artists of Armeniaand some hand made craft.

The president of the Parish Council Mr. Megerduitch Kanondjian opened
the Vernissage, welcoming the hundreds of people who came to
contemplate the works, then he introduced the guests Mr. Karen
Matevossian, President of the “Momik” centre and the chief-editor of
the Armenian Art” magazine, and Mrs. Hasmik Ginoyan, the director of
the Centre. Then Mr. Kanondjian invited Very Rev. Father Ararat
Kaltakjian to deliver the evening’s message to the art loving people
present. The Pastor of the Cathedral Rev. Father Vazgen Boyajyan read
the Primate’s message to the guests. At the end Mr. Matevossian
thanked the Primate, the Parish Council and the organizing committee
members.

The exhibition will be transferred to Vancouver for the next week end
and then will move to Toronto.

The Schedule of His Eminence Bishop Galstanian for the month of April

We hereby would like to present to the Clergy, Diocesan Council
members, Parish councils and faithful of the Armenian Holy Apostolic
Church, Dioceseof Canada the Schedule of His Eminence Bishop Bagrat
Galstanian for the month of April 2004.-

April 8- Maundy Thursday Divine Liturgy Ceremony of the washing of the
feet, khavaroom, St Gregory the Illuminator Armenian Cathedral of
Montreal.

April 9-Burial of our Lord St Gregory the Illuminator Armenian
Cathedral Montreal.

April 10- Easter Eve meeting with the Christian Education Council
Sunday School Department.

April 10- Divine Liturgy, Holy Trinity Armenian Church of Toronto

April 11- Easter (Zadik) St Gregory the Illuminator Cathedral of
Montreal

April 12- Food Drive (In support of Sun Youth celebrating there “50-th
anniversary” a local charitable organization which helps less
fortunate families. Foods gathered on this occasion will be given to
Sun Youth by the Diocese of the Armenian Church of Canada on behalf of
Canadian Armenian community).

April 18- New Sunday, Communion and Blessing of Alex Manoogian-Armen
Quebec Armenian school, Montreal St Gregory the Illuminator Armenian
Cathedral.

April 22- Toy Drive (In support of the Montreal Children’s Hospital
celebrating “100 years of caring for Children”. Toys gathered will be
donated to Montreal Children’s Hospital. Bishop Galstanian, Clergy of
the Diocese and Youth council executive will be present).

April 23- Martyr’s Prayer and Ecumenical service commemoration of
April 24th, Armenian Genocide organized by Diocesan Youth Council and
ACYOC’s of Montreal and Laval. The key speaker will be the Archbishop
of the Anglican Church of Montreal His Eminence Archbishop Andrew
Hutchison at Saint Gregory the Illuminator Armenian Cathedral,
Montreal.

April 24- Divine Liturgy Toronto Holy Trinity Armenian Church. Toronto
Church leaders and politicians will be present on this occasion.

DIVAN OF THE DIOCESE

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

BBC News
Last Updated: Friday, 9 April, 2004, 20:41 GMT 21:41 UK

Armenians rally against president

By Chloe Arnold
BBC correspondent in Baku

President Kocharyan’s election win is still causing indignation – Photo

Thousands of protesters have attended a rally in the Armenian capital
Yerevan to demand the resignation of President Robert Kocharyan.
The Armenian authorities did not sanction the rally and warned that disorder
would not be tolerated.

Dozens of opposition activists were arrested earlier in the week for holding
a similar demonstration.

The rally comes a year after a disputed presidential election which saw an
easy victory for Mr Kocharyan.

On Monday, police arrested dozens of protesters after violent clashes.

Human rights groups have condemned the arrests as well as an attack on two
journalists during the demonstration.

Georgian example

Opposition parties, backed up by international observers, said the vote had
not been free and fair.

The main opposition leader, Stepan Demirchyan, called for a referendum on
the results of the election.

But after the constitutional courts turned down his request, he said he was
forced to take more radical steps.

Many Armenians hoped the country would see an uprising similar to the
so-called Rose Revolution in neighbouring Georgia.

Tens of thousands of Georgians marched on the home of their President,
Eduard Shevardnadze, last November, forcing him to step aside.

Many in Armenia blame the current regime for chronic levels of poverty and
unemployment.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, as many as a million Armenians have
left to seek a better life abroad.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Russia, Saint-Petersburg
Date: 2004.04.09 11:02

39% in Armenia Favor Change at Top, Poll Finds
EREVAN, April 9. Only 39% of Armenians favor a change in government, Gevork
Pogosian, head of the Armenian Sociology Association, has told the newspaper
New Time. Surveys conducted by his group in all regions of Armenia found
43.4% of respondents opposed to the idea and 17% uncertain.

‘The two main opposition leaders have the support of no more than 30% of
voters, with Artashes Gegamian (who heads the opposition National Unity
party) holding 20%, double the 10% rating of Stepan Demirchian” (leader of
the opposition bloc Justice), Pogosian said.

He further said: ‘The idea of restaging here a revolution of the Georgian
type, in the interests of which outside forces are freely encouraging,
abetting and pushing for a change in government, is just not taking in
Armenia.’ He added: ‘You have to realize that Armenia traditionally looks to
Russia and that this approach is supported by 67% of the respondents.’

One thousand persons representing all regions of Armenia were interviewed
for the survey.

————————————————————————
©2001-2002 Rosbalt News Agency

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

ITAR-TASS, Russia
April 8 2004

CSTO secretary general to discuss regional problems in Armenia

YEREVAN, April 8 (Itar-Tass) – Secretary General of the Collective
Security Treaty Organisation Nikolai Bordyuzha will arrive in the
Armenian capital on a three-day working visit on Thursday evening.

He plans to discuss key regional issues with President Robert
Kocharyan of Armenia, a source at the Armenian Foreign Ministry told
Tass.

In the course of his visit he plans to meet with the speaker of the
country’s parliament, defence minister and secretary of the Security
Council at Armenia’s president.

Bordyuzha also plans to hold talks with the foreign minister,
director of the National Security Service and the chief of the
country’s police.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Sportinglife, UK
April 8 2004

HARRISON GETS ABELYAN DATE

WBO featherweight champion Scott Harrison insists mandatory opponent
William Abelyan will pose the minimum possible risk when the two
fighters eventually meet in Glasgow on May 29.

Harrison will face the United States-based Armenian at Braehead more
than two months after the first scheduled fight was cancelled due to
Abelyan’s injured shoulder.

Abelyan will have been out of the ring for almost a year by the time
he arrives in Glasgow and Harrison insists Abelyan’s record indicates
he will be a less than troublesome opponent.

He said: “Boxing is a risky game and you can get floored with one
punch but I don’t think this will be that tough a fight, I see
Abelyan being stopped later in the fight.

“He’s been mouthing off a lot saying that I fight like a robot but
robots are programmed to win. But I couldn’t care less about him to
be honest.

“Who has he fought anyway? I’ve fought a lot of world champions in
the past but I don’t see anyone on his record.

“He’s not fought anyone that I’ve heard of apart from Guty Espadas
and he’s boxed nearly 30 fights. He got knocked out in one round by
Victor Polo so he doesn’t bother me.

“He hasn’t taken any warm-up fights before meeting me – I think
that’s in case he gets beat.

“I just see him running all night. He says he’s going to stand and
fight and he’ll have to if he wants to win the world title.

“But I think he’s just taking the money, he doesn’t really want to
fight.”

There will be familiarity surrounding Harrison’s latest title defence
as the Scotsman is fighting for the ninth time in row in Glasgow and
the champion admits he wants to continue boxing in front of his home
fans as long as possible.

He said: “I don’t want to fight anywhere else, fighting in Scotland
is fantastic for me and you can’t beat the crowd, they are so
patriotic and it’s packed at Braehead every time I fight there.

“It all depends on the money of course but I wouldn’t want to fight
in America.”

In keeping with Harrison’s attitude, the Scotsman is keeping to his
tried-and-tested training regime which involves packing himself away
to a Fort William training camp to get into top shape.

He said: “It will be the usual preparation. I’ve done about four days
training and now I’m off to Fort William for a month.

“It gets me away from the city and I can concentrate on my training.
There’s mountains to run on every morning and night and it gives me
peace and quiet to train and concentrate on my job. It’s worked in
the past and I’ll stick with it.”

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

American Oil Diplomacy in the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea

MODERN HISTORY AND POLITICS

The Middle East Journal (Washington)
Winter 2004
Vol. 58, Iss. 1
pg. 155

Book Review of “American Oil Diplomacy in the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea”
by Gawdat Bahgat. Gainesville, FL: xiii + 173 pages.
Gloss, to p. 178. Notes to p. 192. Bibl. to p. 206. Index to p. 213

By Paul M Mecray III.

American Oil Diplomacy by Professor Gawdat Bahgat of Indiana University
of Pennsylvania is a thorough and sophisticated analysis of geopolitical
events encompassing Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Azerbaijan, and
Kazakhstan. This book is recommended reading for those desiring a
dispassionate history of the region’s oil industry without succumbing to
personal biases – quite an accomplishment for any writer familiar with
the ethnic, religious, and political rivalries in that part of the
world. Dr. Bahgat manages to fill 173 pages with vital statistics, but
still produces a readable, objective narrative. Diplomats, businessmen,
and analysts seeking an in-depth understanding of the
regional alliances and rivalries that will directly impact American
foreign policy, global oil production, and, as a result, both the future
of oil and inflation would do well to read this book.

Particularly helpful is Bahgat’s discussion of the long relationship
that France and Russia have had with Iraq, involved as both have been in
the oil sector and as arms suppliers over the years.

Any treatise on the Middle East becomes dated quickly, and this book is
no exception. Written shortly before the invasion of Iraq in April 2003,
the book discusses reasons for and against launching the war but not the
subsequent chaos. Yet, from a longer term viewpoint, Bahgat does a
superb job explaining regional tensions and rivalries – ranging from the
Arab-Israeli conflict to the continuing friction between Azerbaijan and
Armenia, from pre-war Iraq versus all of its neighbors, Iran’s
relationships with the United States and with Pakistan – and their
implications for the oil industry.

A particularly valuable element of Bahgat’s analysis is his use of
Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections of potential oil
reserves and productive capability for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran.
These figures are seldom cited by authors, many of whom prefer to use
much lower “official” reserve estimates. Given the ever more
sophisticated oilfield technologies, even the EIA figures cited by
Bahgat may be low. In particular, his projections for Kazakhstan are
clearly too conservative, as new data on the Tengiz and Kashagan fields,
alone, suggest recoverable reserves should surpass 25 billion barrels,
three times the BP estimate cited in this book.

That Kazakhstan’s oil potential is indeed far greater than many experts
had estimated focuses one’s attention all the more on Bahgat’s excellent
discussion of pipeline diplomacy, where the politics of competing routes
from the Caspian via the Black Sea/Bosporus, Baku-Tibilisi-Ceyhan (BTC)
to the Mediterranean, and sales to Iran that free up oil for export
through the Persian Gulf, all illustrate the battle for control between
Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, and the United States. He correctly notes that
Washington initially exaggerated the significance of Caspian oil
potential in order to promote the Baku-Tibilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and thus
greatly reduce Russia’s control of export routes. In this instance, the
United States has been fortunate, for subsequent massive oil discoveries
in Kazakhstan will consume all the Caspian Pipeline Consortium capacity
to Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossisk as well as that of the BTC
line to the Mediterranean. Both lines will now need to be expanded, and
pressures will grow to negotiate oil swaps with Iran, which heretofore
Washington has opposed.

In sum, Gawdat Bahgat has produced a superb account of the oil
-geopolitics nexus, and of the conduct of American diplomacy in
furthering US strategic interests in the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea
region.

[Author Affiliation]
Paul M. Mecray, III, Senior Vice President and Partner, Wellington
Management Company, LLP, has served as a global energy industry analyst
for 36 years.

Copyright Middle East Institute

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

ITAR-TASS News Agency
TASS
April 8, 2004 Thursday

Russia, Armenia to hold several joint exercises in summer

MOSCOW

The Armed Forces of Russia and Armenia will hold several joint
exercises in summer this year, Colonel-General Mikhail Arutyunyan,
Armenia’s Chief of the General Staff and First Deputy Minister of
Defence, has announced in an interview published in the Krasnaya
Zvezda (Red Star) newspaper on Thursday.

Arutyunyan said, “Joint combat training activities are carried out
under the plan, signed by the defence ministers of our two countries,
for bilateral cooperation between the Defence Ministries in 2004 and
a plan for joint operational planning of the use of troops in the
interests of ensuring joint security.”

“A command-and-staff exercise in conjunction with the Combined Group
of Troops (CGT) and a joint tactical exercise with field firing are
planned for summer,” General Arutyunyan said. “Besides, it is planned
to hold a series of joint activities of air defence units and
aviation of the 102nd Russian military base and Armenia’s Armed
Forces that draw joint duty within the framework of the Joint Air
Defence System of CIS countries,” Arutyunyan emphasised.

“Joint command-and-staff training was conducted together with the CGT
early in February. At the end of that month, we held an operational
assembly of the Armed Forces’ commanding personnel with the
participation of the generals and officers of the Russian military
base located on Armenia’s territory,” Arutyunyan said.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress