Author: Emil Lazarian

By CALUM MUIRHEAD

Armenia is launching a charm offensive in the City to attract UK investment.

The country's economy minister and diplomats held meetings this week with major banks in the City as it looks to pivot away from Russia.

Vahan Kerobyan, Armenia's minister of economy and a former HSBC banker, has been shuttling around the UK capital in a bid to strengthen ties between the two countries.

Located in the Caucus region between Russia and the Middle East, Armenia is looking to boost its connections with Western financial centres and shift its geopolitical alignment following war in Ukraine.

While it is not a major trading partner for the UK, the value of goods and services exchanged between the nations has been growing rapidly. Last year, trade between the two countries amounted to £92m, up 156 per cent year-on-year.

Kerobyan told the Mail that the government is aiming to increase this to around £1bn within the next three years, ideally with the help of investment from Western banks.

The delegation has already met with HSBC, his former employer, and also arranged a meeting with US banking giant JP Morgan yesterday.

'We really need to diversify our economic ties,' he said.

No floats of Armenian companies are planned on the London market yet but Kerobyan says this is a possibility for the future.

The government is keen to promote its tech sector, concentrated in the capital Yerevan. Its status as a tech hub dates back to the USSR, when as one of its constituent republics it served as a centre for research. It has previously been dubbed the 'Silicon Valley of the Soviet Union.'

Armenia is now looking to regain that crown, with Kerobyan noting that multinational tech giants such as computer chip group Nvidia, IT giant Oracle and communications group Cisco all have a presence in the country.

The minister also noted Armenia's vast reserves of copper, key for electrification and renewable energy, as well as what he said was its 'booming' solar power industry.

Recent events in the region have also accelerated Armenia's drive to boost its economy. The country is accommodating around 100,000 refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-populated enclave which last month was seized by its neighbour Azerbaijan.

But Kerobyan seemed outwardly unfazed by the flare-up in the region, saying the assault on Nagorno-Karabakh would not present risks to Armenia's fiscal stability.

He noted that the country's credit rating had been upgraded in August by S&P Global Rating, a leading US rating agency, after an influx of professionals from Russia. The emigres boosted the IT sector, which grew by 51 per cent last year.

The Prime Minister of Armenia, ‘Nikol Pashinyan’ participated in the “Silk Road” international conference in Tbilisi on . He met with the Prime Minister of Georgia ‘Irakli Garibashvili’, Prime Minister of Montenegro, ‘Dritan Abazović’, Prime Minister of Azerbaijan, ‘Ali Asadov’ and other high-ranking officials at the conference. 

The Representatives of international organizations also took part in the event.

During the conference, Pashinyan presented the “Crossroads of Peace” project of the Armenian government along with its principles. 

The main four points of the project are as follows:

• Sovereignty over Infrastructures: All transportation and energy networks, including roads, railways, pipelines, and power lines, fall under the jurisdiction of the countries they traverse.

• Border Control and Security: Each nation conducts its own border and customs controls, ensuring the safety and security of both domestic and international transit.

• Dual Use of Infrastructures: The designated networks serve domestic and international transportation needs, enhancing connectivity within and between nations.

• Equal Access and Simplified Procedures: Countries benefit from shared infrastructures based on principles of equality and reciprocity, potentially leading to streamlined border and customs procedures.

About the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum 2023

The Tbilisi Silk Road Forum 2023 was held successfully. The central theme of the forum in 2023 was “connectivity”. It was held for the fourth time in Georgia.

The opening ceremony of the event was held on October 26 at the State Theater of Tbilisi Opera and Ballet with the participation of Prime Ministers of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Montenegro.

The Silk Road Forum was founded in 2015 by Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili. The Road Forum is an event of international importance in which more than 2000 delegates and guests from 60 countries participate this year. It has now become a global brand and has become an essential political-economic platform.

Following the cancellation of a meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders on the sidelines of the European Political Community (EPC) summit in Granada on 5 October, yet another European Union-facilitated meeting has failed to materialise. The trilateral meeting in question, involving Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, President Ilham Aliyev, and European Council President Charles Michel, had been announced at the EPC and was supposed to happen by the end of the month.

Ever since, however, it was unclear whether it would go ahead given Baku’s concerns about a statement signed in Granada by Pashinyan, Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

News about Brussels emerged on 26 October as EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Toivo Klaar participated remotely in a conference held in Yerevan. The meeting would not take place because of “time constraints”, he said. Remarking on this news at a press conference with his Canadian counterpart, Mélanie Joly, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said that it was again Aliyev who could not attend.

“I hope that the problem really is the specific dates and in the near future it will be possible to agree on new dates”, Mirzoyan said, while later the same day Pashinyan announced that he would seek clarification from the European Union, apparently also caught unaware.

Speaking to the BBC’s Azerbaijan Service, Farhad Mammadov, Director of the Baku-based South Caucasus Research Centre, said that the statement signed in Spain might well be the reason for the cancellation. “The document accepted in Granada is one-sided”, he was quoted as saying. “If the approach of the European Union will be within the framework of the Granada document, I do not think that Azerbaijan will go to […] Brussels […] in the future”.

Indeed, in the days following the EPC summit, the rhetoric from Baku became increasingly critical of Granada meeting. “Baku does not see the need to discuss the problems of the region with countries far from the region”, an official source told Azerbaijani media at the time. “Baku believes that these issues can be discussed and resolved in a regional framework”.

On 8 October, Aliyev made an unexpected visit to meet Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili in Tbilisi. During a joint press conference, both noted that Georgia could also host  bilateral and trilateral meetings in what some allege was an attempt to shift talks to a platform other than Brussels. “The most correct choice, taking into account both the historical relations and the geographical factor, could certainly be Georgia”, Aliyev said.

Two days later, during a televised interview, Pashinyan responded to Aliyev’s offer to meet in Tbilisi. “When Azerbaijan now offers another platform, we must understand that we are not against other dialogues, but we are against the revisionism of principles already adopted at other meetings”, he said.

Even so, Pashinyan also said that a second meeting of the 3+3 platform would take place in Iran, surprising many given that the first was held in Moscow in December 2021 and frequent announcements about Tehran had been made before. Moreover, Tbilisi continues to refuse to participate in a platform that should include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, Russia, and Turkey because of the presence of Moscow.

But the 3+3 meeting did take place on 23 October in Tehran and at the level of the Foreign Ministers rather than their deputies, which was the format for Moscow. The Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers also met on the sidelines for talks of “an informal nature”. In a jab likely aimed at the EU and United States, Iran announced that the meeting was to discuss “peace, security, and stability” in the region “without foreign interference”.

Meanwhile, in another development, it was announced the same day that Pashinyan would address the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum on 26 October alongside not only Garibashvili but also Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov. “Tbilisi is a neutral, impartial platform, a place where countries can meet and speak about peace, cooperation and development”, remarked Georgian Minister of Economy Levan Davitashvili about the presence of Asadov and Pashinyan.

Garibashvili also used the event to highlight his government’s suggestion of establishing a peaceful neighbourhood initiative. “We are ready to cooperate with […] Azerbaijan and Armenia […] to establish stable peace in the South Caucasus”, he told attendees. For now, however, Yerevan seems reluctant to risk any progress made through the EU process, but with Brussels looking increasingly uncertain, others believe that such a development could at least be complementary  .

Meanwhile, Klaar says that consultations to arrange a meeting between Aliyev, Pashinyan, and Michel in Brussels continue, though no date or even time frame has been announced. “It is our expectation that the leaders will meet in Brussels as agreed at the earliest possible opportunity”, his office simply said.

https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Armenia/Brussels-Armenia-Azerbaijan-Talks-Canceled-As-Regional-Meetings-Kick-Off-227778