Author: Emil Lazarian

The leaders of Georgia and Azerbaijan have put forward the idea of Georgia acting as mediator and host of peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

Armenia has yet to respond.

The proposal comes in the wake of Azerbaijan's refusal to show up for planned talks in Spain because France was to participate as a mediator and Turkey was not. 

Current iterations of Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks have been underway since early 2021 but made little progress due chiefly to differences over the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh's Armenian population.

Now, Baku's lightning offensive to take back the entire territory on September 19-20 and the resulting exodus of the Armenian population and dissolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic has created a new reality.

On October 8 Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid an unannounced visit to Tbilisi and held a joint briefing with Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili. 

The two leaders hailed bilateral economic and energy cooperation and mooted the idea of Georgia hosting peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in either bilateral or trilateral format. Garibashvili also reiterated Georgia's recognition of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity (i.e. sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh). 

"We are grateful to Azerbaijan, which, in turn, always supports the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia. We have also confirmed that we have great hopes that Azerbaijan and Armenia sign a peace agreement," he said. 

"We have always been impartial here in Georgia and are ready to contribute to this issue today. We want to be a mediator in this matter and are ready to offer any friendly format. Our future should be peaceful and stable, and all three countries of the South Caucasus should address regional issues themselves."

Aliyev welcomed the idea and suggested he would prefer it to the ongoing peace talks formats.

"Several countries and also some international organizations are trying to support the normalization process between Armenia and Azerbaijan today. We welcome that. If it is not lop-sided and biased, of course, we welcome any mediation and assistance. However, in my opinion, taking into account both the historical relations and the geographical factor, the most correct option in this field would certainly be Georgia," Aliyev said. 

"[I]f Armenia agrees, the heads of our relevant authorities can immediately come to Georgia for both bilateral and trilateral meetings."

There have been two tracks of mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan since Azerbaijan's victory in the 2020 Second Karabakh War which saw it regain most of the territory it lost in the first war in the early 1990s (it regained the rest in its September offensive). One track is overseen by Russia and the other by the EU with help from the U.S. 

After Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to recognize each other's territorial integrity at an EU-mediated meeting in Prague last October, media in both countries reported the launch of separate talks between Baku and the de facto authorities then governing Nagorno-Karabakh. 

These talks made little progress and took place amid Baku's 9-month blockade of the breakaway region. Eventually, the de facto Karabakh government disbanded itself and several of its former leaders now face charges in Azerbaijani custody.

But there is still a chance for a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which did not intervene in Baku's offensive to take over Nagorno-Karabakh. 

The first post-offensive meeting between Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was to be held in Granada, Spain, on the sidelines of the European Political Community Summit, on October 5. 

But a day before the Granada meeting, Aliyev refused to go, citing the exclusion of Turkey, its closest ally, from would-be multilateral talks, and the inclusion of Armenia's ally France. 

"Due to France's biased actions and militarization policy that seriously undermine regional peace and stability in the South Caucasus and put at risk European Union's overall policy towards the region and regardless of official Baku's insistence, not agreeing to participation of Turkey, as a regional country, in the pentalateral meeting Azerbaijan has decided not to participate in Granada meeting," Hikmat Hajiyev, a senior advisor to Aliyev, wrote on X. 

This isn't the first time Georgia volunteered to host talks between its two neighbors. During the 2020 war, then-Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia offered to mediate, but the warring sides showed no interest. 

In late 2021, in the course of Armenia-Azerbaijan talks, Georgia refused to participate in a so-called 3+3 format involving the three countries of the South Caucasus plus the three larger powers on the region's periphery, Turkey, Iran, and Russia. Its refusal was based on Moscow's involvement. Georgia has no diplomatic relations with Russia, which according to Georgian law has been occupying the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia since 2008.

Following Armenia's ratification of the Rome Statute, the Kremlin has said it does not want Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to have to give up visiting an allied country.

Source: Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov on 3 October

Quote from Peskov: "Of course we would not like the president to have to cancel his visits to Armenia for any reason.

Of course we have a lot in common with the brotherly Armenian people. We have no doubt that it will unite us forever."

Details: Peskov said that Armenia's decision to ratify the Rome Statute was "incorrect".

Quote from Peskov: "There will be additional questions for the current leadership of Armenia; they were conveyed to the Armenian side in advance. We doubt, and have doubted from the very beginning, that Armenia's accession to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court is correct from the point of view of bilateral relations. We still believe that this is an incorrect decision."

Previously: The National Assembly of Armenia has passed a law ratifying the Rome Statute, the founding document of the International Criminal Court, which has issued a warrant for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described Armenia's decisions regarding the Rome Statute as "extremely hostile". At the same time, he said that the Armenian side had offered to conclude a bilateral agreement with Russia regarding the Rome Statute.

Background: Armenia signed the Rome Statute in 1998, but did not ratify it. The Constitutional Court of Armenia ruled in March 2023 that the Rome Statute aligns with the country's constitution.

A parliamentary committee gave a positive opinion on the ratification of the statute, and it was submitted to the plenary session at the end of September.

Yerevan has stressed the need to ratify the Statute and recognise its jurisdiction, emphasising that the risk of further military aggression against Armenia by Azerbaijan remains high, and that after ratification, Baku's war crimes will fall under the jurisdiction of the ICC.

As for Russia's concerns, Armenia's representative for international legal issues, Yeghisheh Kirakosyan, recently clarified that there is no question of Putin being arrested upon entering Armenia after the ratification of the Rome Statute, as current heads of state are granted immunity.

States that have ratified the Rome Statute are obliged to arrest Vladimir Putin in the event of his arrival in their territory under a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court in the context of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Armenia's parliament votes to join the International Criminal Court in a move that Russia had already said would be an unfriendly step. Meanwhile, there are "surreal" scenes in the abandoned enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Armenian parliament on Tuesday voted to sign up to the International Criminal Court (ICC), a development that is expected to further sour relations with the country's old ally Russia.

A chasm has opened up between the two countries, with Yerevan angry with the Kremlin over its perceived inaction in a long-standing confrontation between Armenia and fellow post-Soviet state Azerbaijan.

Countries that sign and ratify the Hague-based court's founding Rome Statute are in theory obliged to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin, indicted for war crimes connected to the deportation of children from Ukraine, if he were to enter their terrritory. 

In the parliamentary session, 60 deputies voted in favor while 22, mainly opposition lawmakers, cast their vote against joining the ICC.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan last week tried to soothe Kremlin fears, saying the initiative was not "directed against" Russia.

Whatever the motive, Moscow has already described the parliament's decision as an affront.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a briefing that, while Moscow regarded Yerevan as an ally, it would have to question the country's current leadership

Russia had previously warned Armenia against voting to ratify the court treaty, saying this would be viewed as "extremely hostile."

Armenia's parliament voted on the issue on the same day that French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna was in Yerevan, pledging future support from France. 

Colonna announced plans for future French military materiel deliveries in a joint press conference with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. She also explicitly praised the country for signing up to the ICC. 

"From Yerevan, I salute the decision of the Armenian parliament to ratify the Rome Statute and thus allow Armenia to become a state party to the International Criminal Court. The fight against impunity for crimes is a condition of peace and stability,"Colonna wrote on X, formerly Twitter, Tuesday.

Rumors had existed ever since the 2020 conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, where ethnic Armenians lost ground to Azerbaijan, that Pashinyan was increasingly looking for allies other than the country's most traditional backers in Moscow. These only intensified as the exclave fell to Azeri forces within a matter of hours, despite the presence of a Russian peacekeeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh. 

"The world is getting smaller for the autocrat in the Kremlin," wrote European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on X — praising Armenia's vote in favor of joining the ICC and referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin's international arrest warrant.

Former Soviet state Armenia has accused Russian "peacekeeping" troops of failing to prevent recent hostilities that it says allowed Baku to take full control of the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. The breakaway statelet lies wholly within Azerbaijan's territory, but it had come under the control of ethnic Armenian forces after the breakup of the Soviet Union.

The Russian troops were deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh as peacekeepers after a 2020 war that saw the region largely surrounded by Azeri forces.

An International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) official on Tuesday described the empty streets of Nagorno-Karabakh as "surreal" with most of the ethnic population having fled to Armenia.

Only a few hundred people remain behind in the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Stepanakert by Armenia and Khankendi by Azerbaijan, including the sick, disabled and elderly.

"The city is now completely deserted," said ICRC team lead Marco Succi via videolink.

"The hospitals….are not functioning; the medical personnel left; the water board authorities left; the director of the morgue also left. So this scenario, the scene is quite surreal."

Some of the people who fled to Armenia said the situation had been difficult even before the Azeri takeover after Baku blocked road access for several months.

"We were starving, for several months. I could only eat vegetables from my small garden: potatoes, pumpkins, things like that. We ran out of bread at some point. We tried to bake our bread using our own grain," one refugee told DW.

DW's reporter in Yerevan, Dmitry Ponyavin, said there was a sense of abandonment and hopelessness among the refugees at one reception center.

"This place is being held together largely by efforts of local activists who tell us that they prefer not to send families here especially with small children as staying here can be very traumatizing for them."

js,rc/msh (AFP, AP, dpa, Reuters)

MOSCOW, Oct 8 (Reuters) – Azerbaijan's president scolded the European Union and warned that France's decision to send military aid to Armenia could trigger a new conflict in the South Caucasus after a lightening Azerbaijani military operation last month.

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev last week pulled out of an EU-brokered meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at which Brussels said it was standing by Armenia.

But Aliyev criticised the EU's approach – and particularly France's position – when European Council, Charles Michel, telephoned him, according to an Azerbaijani statement issued late on Saturday.

President Ilham Aliyev said "that due to the well-known position of France, Azerbaijan did not participate in the meeting in Granada," the Azerbaijani presidential office said.

"The head of state emphasized that the provision of weapons by France to Armenia was an approach that was not serving peace, but one intended to inflate a new conflict, and if any new conflict occurs in the region, France would be responsible for causing it."

France has agreed on future contracts with Armenia to supply it with military equipment to help ensure its defences, Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said Oct. 3 during a visit to Yerevan.

She declined to elaborate on what sort of military aid was envisaged for Armenia under future supply contracts. French President Emmanuel Macron scolded Azerbaijan, saying that Baku appeared to have a problem with international law.

Aliyev restored control over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh last month with a 24-hour military operation which triggered the exodus of most of the territory's 120,000 ethnic Armenians to Armenia.

Aliyev said he had acted in accordance with international law, adding that eight villages in Azerbaijan were "still under Armenian occupation, and stressed the importance of liberating these villages from occupation."

The Azerbaijani president visited Georgia on Sunday and thanked Tbilisi for offering to mediate for a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

But an Armenian envoy said he feared Azerbaijan could invade within weeks.

"We are now under imminent threat of invasion," the Armenian ambassador-designate to the EU, Tigran Balayan, told Brussels Signal.